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On November 03 2016 06:57 GTR wrote:
I've created a Google Form/Spreadsheet for people to help add eachother.

Hopefully this will makes things easier for us to find people for Mythic+ runs and what not as opposed to sifting through 150+ pages of discussion.

Form
Spreadsheet

If a moderator could add this as a moderator note at the top it'd be appreciated.
DCRed
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland435 Posts
February 02 2017 19:12 GMT
#5221
There's no feasible way to solve split raids without fucking over totally majority of players so it's what it's currently. It's not like people actually enjoy that shit. People wish we wouldn't have ridic ap grind and world of diablo currently.
Seuss
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States10536 Posts
February 02 2017 19:13 GMT
#5222
On February 03 2017 02:20 Cyro wrote:
Show nested quote +
Realistically every legendary takes roughly 250-300 KP to obtain (with the first being somewhat easier, more like 150-200 KP). There are no diminishing returns on legendary acquisition (not since Blizzard removed the soft cap anyway).


The first ones come quite a bit faster and later ones slower, that quite obviously takes effect on #1, #2 and #3 with getting 6 on one char taking an extremely long time for the vast majority of people.

There's no way that it's anywhere near 300kp per legendary forever - the top AP earners in the world were getting 1 legendary per month (Dec-Jan) while earning several thousand KP per month.

I earned 2000-3000kp between legendary #4 and #5 and that was 100% after the BLP was re-enabled

The math may be useless but it's painfully obvious from other sources that droprates are nonlinear well beyond the first legendary drop


The data disagrees.

If you look at the data in the spreadsheet from the thread I linked and do the averages yourself (it's easy, just select the column and in the lower right corner you can tell google sheets to average it) you'll find that what I said was perfectly correct. Current averages for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and even 5th legendaries are roughly around the KP range I described.

Bear in mind it's an average, and because of the low drop rate (and RNG being what it is) the variance is huge. While the average might be in the range I described it not abnormal for someone to get their next legendary almost immediately or for it to take thousands of KP before it drops.

Moreover, there are notable problems with the KP system itself that cause it to be a guess at best:
  • It's difficult to collect accurate or complete data from the armory regarding KP generating activitives.
  • The actual mechanics of bad luck protection are completely opaque.
  • KP itself is essentially nothing more than a best guess made with extremely limited and incomplete information.


For example, you can't query the armory for how many emissary caches someone has completed, and it's similar difficult to measure WQs, yet these are activities which are known to drop legendaries and interact with bad luck protection. Even worse, some facets of the armory don't separate activities done on alts with those of your main (and vice versa), which can create misleading data.

From another angle, we basically have no idea how bad luck protection works. While we have some idea as to which activities are more likely to drop legendaries (raids, caches, mythic+ chests), that doesn't necessarily mean they increment bad luck protection more than other activities. We guess that they might, but it's practically impossible to tell since we don't have a sufficient volume of data to discern that.

In short, the best available data we have right now indicates legendary drops rates are, on average, linear, but few individuals will experience it like that because variance is extremely high.
"I am not able to carry all this people alone, for they are too heavy for me." -Moses (Numbers 11:14)
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20345 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-02 20:54:17
February 02 2017 19:24 GMT
#5223
Blizz don't seem to want to force lower raids onto unflexible lockouts (which i agree with, actually, non-flex lockouts are so 2007) or control loot in another way that would prevent split runs

They have taken some steps towards controlling loot - in late WOD it was changed so BOE's always drop personally regardless of the loot setting. A while after that (legion prepatch?) they disabled the ability to take the loot off personal unless 80%+ of your group is from your guild. They seemed unwilling to touch what guilds do with their loot, though, avoiding options like forcing personal loot
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
chocorush
Profile Joined June 2009
696 Posts
February 02 2017 19:30 GMT
#5224
On February 03 2017 04:05 NonY wrote:
so they designed two systems, one which is better for hardcore players and one which is better for casual players, and use the first one on mythic lockouts and the other on everything else, and kinda just left it that


The mythic lockout system is the same system they had since Vanilla, not sure when they split it off. The "casual" system is the improved system, but leads to the edge case of split runs. If nothing else could be done, it seems appropriate to limit the usage of the lockout system to the edge case, which is mythic raiders.
Noocta
Profile Joined June 2010
France12578 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-02 23:37:12
February 02 2017 23:23 GMT
#5225
My guild is trying Aluriel Mythic. She's SUCH a step-up from the first three boss it's pretty impressive.

Took us a good 50 pulls adapting a good strategy for Phase 1. Saw the first Arcane phase tonight.

No wonder so many guilds are skipping her and going for Krosus, even if he requires very high numbers;
" I'm not gonna fight you. I'm gonna kick your ass ! "
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20345 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-02 23:33:08
February 02 2017 23:30 GMT
#5226
[image loading]

Good that you do it like 1-3, 4/5/6/7/8, 9-10. Tuning probably takes that into account as well
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
Mysticesper
Profile Joined January 2011
United States1183 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-02 23:50:24
February 02 2017 23:50 GMT
#5227
On February 03 2017 08:23 Noocta wrote:
My guild is trying Aluriel Mythic. She's SUCH a step-up from the first three boss it's pretty impressive.

Took us a good 50 pulls adapting a good strategy for Phase 1. Saw the first Arcane phase tonight.

No wonder so many guilds are skipping her and going for Krosus, even if he requires very high numbers;


While im not there on mythic, I like the design of the Aluriel fight. Elisande is similarly kinda cool, even if excessive in the move around the room category.
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20345 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-03 00:51:15
February 03 2017 00:07 GMT
#5228
In short, the best available data we have right now indicates legendary drops rates are, on average, linear, but few individuals will experience it like that because variance is extremely high.


I'm not aware of anyone that i regularly play with that has even 6 on one character, players with over 1k hours logged, many hundreds of raid bosses, 500-1000 mythic+ etc. None have 3, a few still have 4 legendaries and almost all have 5

Meanwhile the few guys that i know playing across a whole char list of characters with the same playtime have over 20 legendaries each split with all characters having a couple each, maybe one char with 3-4.

These are anecdotes but when you have 30 of them showing highly unexpected data it's more than enough to make strong suggestions

I came to pretty much the opposite conclusions from some similar data and personally researching + asking questions a lot - that the variance did not seem to be large (edge case vs edge case, yeah, but can strongly predict amount of legendaries in even a small group of players) and that the rates were hugely nonlinear with 2, 3 coming much faster than 5 and 6, at least since around ~7.1

300kp is also just way too low to have any chance of being correct as an average. The average person with 6k KP doesn't have 20 legendaries, they have about 5 - that's easy to check. The only people with 10 on one character are extremely lucky, dedicated players and i have not actually seen one myself yet
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
Redox
Profile Joined October 2010
Germany24794 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-03 02:07:08
February 03 2017 01:01 GMT
#5229
Scaling for my class (Mistweaver) seems really bad. In Warcraftlogs stats the lower you go in item lvl the better he looks and the higher you go the worse he looks. Consequently Mistweaver logs for NH mythic also look way worse than for NH hc.

I think part of the problem are set boni - I just calculated 4 piece bonus increases my overall heal by 1.8%, often less. Are set boni similar for other classes?

edit:
Correction can be like 2.6%.
Off-season = best season
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18870 Posts
February 03 2017 01:02 GMT
#5230
If you really just used boni instead of bonuses, I applaud you sir.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Cyro
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United Kingdom20345 Posts
February 03 2017 01:39 GMT
#5231
Not sure about healers other than a few comments about the druid 4piece being extremely good. 1.8% is about as bad as you get from sets
"oh my god my overclock... I got a single WHEA error on the 23rd hour, 9 minutes" -Belial88
InFiNitY[pG]
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Germany3474 Posts
February 03 2017 07:00 GMT
#5232
druid 2p is around 3% 4p around 5% last I read
"I just pressed stimpack, and somehow I won the battle" -Flash
daemir
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland8662 Posts
February 03 2017 11:09 GMT
#5233
Disc 4 set can be very strong depending on the encounter. 2 set seems very meh.

Holy priest 2 set feels strong as well with as much burst aoe as we have in Nighthold. 4 set seems kinda meh.
Noocta
Profile Joined June 2010
France12578 Posts
February 03 2017 12:17 GMT
#5234
On February 03 2017 10:01 Redox wrote:
Scaling for my class (Mistweaver) seems really bad. In Warcraftlogs stats the lower you go in item lvl the better he looks and the higher you go the worse he looks. Consequently Mistweaver logs for NH mythic also look way worse than for NH hc.

I think part of the problem are set boni - I just calculated 4 piece bonus increases my overall heal by 1.8%, often less. Are set boni similar for other classes?

edit:
Correction can be like 2.6%.


Scaling has been an issue for Mistweaver and Windwalker alike sadly.
Until both spec get something that scales off secondaries correctly, we're bound to see the same patern every tier.
" I'm not gonna fight you. I'm gonna kick your ass ! "
Redox
Profile Joined October 2010
Germany24794 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-03 12:41:58
February 03 2017 12:35 GMT
#5235
T19 set boni value for different specs (DD only sadly):

https://www.reddit.com/r/wow/comments/5lly8k/nighthold_t19_set_bonus_power_rankings/
Off-season = best season
Redox
Profile Joined October 2010
Germany24794 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-03 12:42:44
February 03 2017 12:38 GMT
#5236
On February 03 2017 21:17 Noocta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 03 2017 10:01 Redox wrote:
Scaling for my class (Mistweaver) seems really bad. In Warcraftlogs stats the lower you go in item lvl the better he looks and the higher you go the worse he looks. Consequently Mistweaver logs for NH mythic also look way worse than for NH hc.

I think part of the problem are set boni - I just calculated 4 piece bonus increases my overall heal by 1.8%, often less. Are set boni similar for other classes?

edit:
Correction can be like 2.6%.


Scaling has been an issue for Mistweaver and Windwalker alike sadly.
Until both spec get something that scales off secondaries correctly, we're bound to see the same patern every tier.

Yes I feel that any class that does not scale well with haste and mastery will have issues (except it gets extra value from crit which monk does not). Although WW does not look bad in general.
Off-season = best season
Seuss
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States10536 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-03 16:25:23
February 03 2017 15:55 GMT
#5237
On February 03 2017 09:07 Cyro wrote:
Show nested quote +
In short, the best available data we have right now indicates legendary drops rates are, on average, linear, but few individuals will experience it like that because variance is extremely high.


300kp is also just way too low to have any chance of being correct as an average. The average person with 6k KP doesn't have 20 legendaries, they have about 5 - that's easy to check. The only people with 10 on one character are extremely lucky, dedicated players and i have not actually seen one myself yet


You may be correct that 300 is too low, but the spreadsheet would have you believe that only the luckiest of lucky people should have 5 as it stands, and almost nobody should have 6 or more. That clearly isn't the case, not by a long shot.

Ultimately I'd rather rely on reports like yours than KP anyway, as KP is at best a stab in the dark with a dull knife. The KP values for activities are based on the assumption that activities which are more likely to drop legendaries have a greater effect on BLP, the values themselves are somewhat arbitrary despite that (e.g. Mythic kills are 3 times as valuable as LFR kills, despite only dropping legendaries 80% more often), and the most important activities can't even be accurately measured (Mythic+, WQs, caches). KP is more flawed than Gearscore, and that's saying a lot.
"I am not able to carry all this people alone, for they are too heavy for me." -Moses (Numbers 11:14)
Redox
Profile Joined October 2010
Germany24794 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-03 16:14:18
February 03 2017 16:13 GMT
#5238
On February 04 2017 00:55 Seuss wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 03 2017 09:07 Cyro wrote:
In short, the best available data we have right now indicates legendary drops rates are, on average, linear, but few individuals will experience it like that because variance is extremely high.


300kp is also just way too low to have any chance of being correct as an average. The average person with 6k KP doesn't have 20 legendaries, they have about 5 - that's easy to check. The only people with 10 on one character are extremely lucky, dedicated players and i have not actually seen one myself yet


You may be correct that 300 is too low, but the spreadsheet would have you believe that only the luckiest of lucky people should have 5 as it stands, and almost nobody should have 6 or more. That clearly isn't the case, not by a long shot.

Ultimately I'd rather rely on reports like yours than KP anyway, as KP is at best a stab in the dark with a dull knife. The KP values for activities are based on the assumption that activities which are more likely to drop legendaries have a greater effect on BLP, the values themselves are somewhat arbitrary despite that (e.g. Mythic kills are 3 times as valuable as LFR kills, despite only dropping legendaries 80% more often), and the most important activities can't even be accurately measured (Mythic+, WQs, caches). KP is more flawed that Gearscore, and that's saying a lot.

Maybe I missed the post, but is there some list telling us what gives how many KP? So that we could know what would be more or less efficient for farming legs. Just thinking this has to exist in order to make the KP calculations.
Off-season = best season
Rebs
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Pakistan10726 Posts
February 03 2017 16:21 GMT
#5239
On February 04 2017 01:13 Redox wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 04 2017 00:55 Seuss wrote:
On February 03 2017 09:07 Cyro wrote:
In short, the best available data we have right now indicates legendary drops rates are, on average, linear, but few individuals will experience it like that because variance is extremely high.


300kp is also just way too low to have any chance of being correct as an average. The average person with 6k KP doesn't have 20 legendaries, they have about 5 - that's easy to check. The only people with 10 on one character are extremely lucky, dedicated players and i have not actually seen one myself yet


You may be correct that 300 is too low, but the spreadsheet would have you believe that only the luckiest of lucky people should have 5 as it stands, and almost nobody should have 6 or more. That clearly isn't the case, not by a long shot.

Ultimately I'd rather rely on reports like yours than KP anyway, as KP is at best a stab in the dark with a dull knife. The KP values for activities are based on the assumption that activities which are more likely to drop legendaries have a greater effect on BLP, the values themselves are somewhat arbitrary despite that (e.g. Mythic kills are 3 times as valuable as LFR kills, despite only dropping legendaries 80% more often), and the most important activities can't even be accurately measured (Mythic+, WQs, caches). KP is more flawed that Gearscore, and that's saying a lot.

Maybe I missed the post, but is there some list telling us what gives how many KP? So that we could know what would be more or less efficient for farming legs. Just thinking this has to exist in order to make the KP calculations.


There isnt, thats part of the reason the analysis is flawed.
Seuss
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States10536 Posts
February 03 2017 16:36 GMT
#5240
KP values per activity are all guesses made by the guy who put together the system. For boss kills it's 6 KP per Mythic kill, 4 for Heroic, 3 for Normal, and 2 for LFR. The weekly M+ chest is 11, M+ runs themselves are "2-5", and all other activities are generalized into 2 KP per day.

That's all well and good until you realize that M+ runs and the "other" category, the activities KP can't accurately measure or effectively ignores, account for 37% and 35% of all legendary drops respectively. When your system effectively doesn't handle the majority of cases, and arguably doesn't accurately handle the remaining minority of cases, you have a problem.
"I am not able to carry all this people alone, for they are too heavy for me." -Moses (Numbers 11:14)
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