NFL 2015 Season - Page 78
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tonight
United States11130 Posts
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QuanticHawk
United States32132 Posts
On August 31 2015 13:03 Jibba wrote: Right, but you're not just taking Gronk, you're taking Gronk + a tier 2/3 RB/WR next. The ceiling on TE is so low that even if Gronk kills every other TE, the gap is still only 2/3 of the gap between RBs. The standard deviation of the top 12 RBs in ESPN standard last year was 42. TE was 27 and QB was 30. Interestingly, WR was only 26, but in PPR it would've been a lot higher. Gronk is like getting an extra tier 2.5 WR, but to do so you're missing out on a tier 1 RB/WR. The opportunity cost is just so high. I think he's a good 2nd round pick, but his ADP is too high at 1.x. I think people are too focused on how dominant he is, and not paying enough attention to the absolute value of that dominance. Now, you can make an argument that Gronk is easier to predict as the #1 at his position than Antonio Brown and Demarco Murray were last year, but you can still make some very safe picks with guys like Dez or Charles and even if they're #4/5 at their position, the gap will be larger than the gap among TEs. My league is doing IDP this year and now that I'm looking through the numbers, it's actually pretty stupid. JJ Watt broke everything last year (way more than Gronk), but after that you just take the LB on your favorite team and call it a wash. It's even less interesting than defense/kickers. This is definitely true. I like my TL team but I also def shot myself in the foot on WR because I took him at 8. RBs are shit there though. I was 100% going QB/WR/TE there. My main logic beyond his value over the next group of TEs was that it's a hell of a lot easier to find a random WR that can put up points than it is for a TE. anywho I did another draft last night. Standard, with defensive scoring boosted a little. 12 man team, 6 playoffs QB-WRx3-RBx2-TE-WRTFlex-K-D Big Ben Cobb, Tate, Wheaton Lacy, Gore Witten Bernard (I skipped a kicker will be dropping someone) Philly D A. Foster, Stafford, Perriman, Lafell, Gray, Dorsett I like this team a lot. I was really hoping bell would drop but Lacy or Charles were my second choices. I think Lacy is going to be a monster this year. I have two players that will benefit most from the Nelson injury. Yahoo graded me the highest and football guys generally likes my chances. WR is a little hairy but I think Perriman/Lafell will be a decent enough filler at WR3 once healthy. I'll be dropping one of Gray or Dorsett for a kicker. Getting Foster on top of everyone else there is going to be killer. Everyone was still thinking he's due back 2nd half of the season but apparently he'll be back before the end of Sept. Even with him out, I like Bernard as a flex option. I also like that I paired up Ben-Wheaton and Stafford-Tate. 1. (5) Eddie Lacy (GB - RB) 2. (20) Randall Cobb (GB - WR) 3. (29) Frank Gore (Ind - RB) 4. (44) Golden Tate (Det - WR) 5. (53) Ben Roethlisberger (Pit - QB) 6. (68) Arian Foster (Hou - RB) 7. (77) Giovani Bernard (Cin - RB) 8. (92) Jason Witten (Dal - TE) 9. (101) Markus Wheaton (Pit - WR) 10. (116) Matthew Stafford (Det - QB) 11. (125) Brandon LaFell (NE - WR) 12. (140) Breshad Perriman (Bal - WR) 13. (149) Philadelphia (Phi - DEF) 14. (164) Jonas Gray (NE - RB) 15. (173) Phillip Dorsett (Ind - WR) | ||
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whatisthisasheep
624 Posts
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000518675/article/gruden-kirk-cousins-is-redskins-starter-for-2015 Me thinks RG3 will hit the trading block soon. Who will give him 16 million though? | ||
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
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AgentW
United States7725 Posts
I think the earliest you can take him is 15 or so, and that's a risk, because he's a guy who can lose you the draft. By VORP (8 team league, sorry that's all I have this year, but it's a good approximation) he was the 15th best player assuming QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, DST, K. The TE drop off from 9 to 11 is larger than the other few positions, so he gets a bump in value in 10 or 12 team leagues, but it's not significant. I think it's safe to say that "unhealthy 2014 first few games Gronk" is roughly equivalent to "Jimmy Garrapolo'd (or whatever his name is) 2015 Gronk". If we accept this premise, we are looking at a guy whose upside is about 12-15 and has an injury history a mile long. He's had ACL repair, a rod in his arm, and multiple back surgeries. If he gets hurt and you take him in the 2nd, you're probably done, and he's not providing that much surplus value if you select him at that position. I won't be owning Gronk in any leagues this year. EDIT: The only way I can see anyone reasonably picking Gronk in the top 10 is if you're gambling on Brady being fully reinstated, and that's a shot in the dark. Re: Jibba's IDP My league is doing this for the first time this year as well, except we have a $200 auction budget. I'm legitimately considering bidding like $50 on Watt. He's just that good. | ||
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whatisthisasheep
624 Posts
For the first time, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was believed to be "open" to serving a one-game suspension for not cooperating with Ted Wells' investigation as part of a potential settlement. It was a possibility heading into settlement talks in court Monday, according to someone briefed on his thinking. However, talks never got that far. Settlement talks between Brady and the NFL broke down Monday when Judge Richard M. Berman visited the two sides and informed them they were too far apart and there was no point to continuing. As has been the case over the past several weeks, talks never evolved because the Patriots quarterback maintained his position that he would not accept the findings of the Wells Report and was unwilling to accept responsibility for his potential role in the deflation of footballs. Publicly and privately, Brady has maintained that he had no involvement in the situation. He has realized, and his lawyer Jeffrey Kessler has said it publicly, that he should have been more forthcoming in cooperating with Wells' team. Meanwhile, the NFL appeared poised to offer to shorten Brady's four-game suspension by two games, provided he accept some responsibility. But no offer was made because discussions never reached that point. Until there is a ruling by Berman, the door remains open for a settlement, according to a source involved in the situation. I swear all Brady has to do is say he is retiring as a direct result of the commissioners ineptitude and gross misconduct. Goodel would drop the case against Brady to save face. | ||
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
nvm he's stupid it does take your first round pick but the "2nd round" is just the 1st round repeated for people who kept like normal. Oh well hopefully everyone keeps. Then I can get a good RB Just gonna not keep then. I can probably get Luck or someone else good with my 2 early picks | ||
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Jibba
United States22883 Posts
On September 01 2015 09:18 AgentW wrote: Re: Jibba's IDP My league is doing this for the first time this year as well, except we have a $200 auction budget. I'm legitimately considering bidding like $50 on Watt. He's just that good. IDP had the biggest gap between #1 and #2 of any position last year. The problem is that's boosted by his 5 freaking TDs and it's too hard to predict. Once Watt is gone, the position is a crapshoot and basically every team has a LB within a few points of each other. I may pick up Levy in the last round, just to be a homer and maybe he gets a bit more action with Suh gone. | ||
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y0su
Finland7871 Posts
On September 01 2015 13:11 Jibba wrote: IDP had the biggest gap between #1 and #2 of any position last year. The problem is that's boosted by his 5 freaking TDs and it's too hard to predict. Once Watt is gone, the position is a crapshoot and basically every team has a LB within a few points of each other. I may pick up Levy in the last round, just to be a homer and maybe he gets a bit more action with Suh gone. I've stopped playing FF but my #1 rules - avoid homers! (I always moved Det players at least one round lower to keep me from drafting them too early) | ||
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Jibba
United States22883 Posts
I'm not falling for the Abdullah hype, and Megatron is so underrated right now it's crazy - that's not homerism. ![]() | ||
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y0su
Finland7871 Posts
On September 01 2015 13:58 Jibba wrote: Normally I'm good, it's just it's IDP. Players #2-14 are all like within 10 points of each other on the year. I'm not falling for the Abdullah hype, and Megatron is so underrated right now it's crazy - that's not homerism. ![]() AA has some skills but it's a crowded backfield! Megatron is definitely going low but some of it is justified with Tate poaching. Also if the D does take half a step back we'll see the O step up from last year | ||
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whatisthisasheep
624 Posts
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AgentW
United States7725 Posts
On September 01 2015 12:11 Shellshock wrote: wow so I just found out I'm picking 1st overall because I lost the consolation game to the 3 win team in my league last year lol. Person running the league also says keepers don't affect your first round draft picks so I get to keep Andrew Luck and pick 1st overall? One team had Jamaal Charles and DeMarco Murray so he cant keep both so I guess I'm going to get one of them first? nvm he's stupid it does take your first round pick but the "2nd round" is just the 1st round repeated for people who kept like normal. Oh well hopefully everyone keeps. Then I can get a good RB Just gonna not keep then. I can probably get Luck or someone else good with my 2 early picks Yeah, you keep Luck, take Peterson, and win. Good luck (hue hue hue). On September 01 2015 13:11 Jibba wrote: IDP had the biggest gap between #1 and #2 of any position last year. The problem is that's boosted by his 5 freaking TDs and it's too hard to predict. Once Watt is gone, the position is a crapshoot and basically every team has a LB within a few points of each other. I may pick up Levy in the last round, just to be a homer and maybe he gets a bit more action with Suh gone. I'm looking at the points and it's just bonkers. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect 3 TDs from Watt this year. Just typing that seems crazy. | ||
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Jibba
United States22883 Posts
Kniles was just to talk shit to the Jamaal Charles player. And I got Bell at 9, cause Taco's. Eli Manning Le'Veon Bell Lamar Miller Julio Jones Brandin Cooks Jeremy Maclin Delanie Walker Joseph Randle Chris Ivory C.J. Mosley Cardinals Cody Parkey Kendall Wright Anquan Boldin Knile Davis Derek Carr This is PPR, btw. My only real regret is Kendall Wright instead of Victor Cruz. I think Wright was a great value pick (I forget the round but it was pretty late), but so is Boldin, so a flyer on Cruz coming back to form might've been smarter. | ||
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Jaaaaasper
United States10225 Posts
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
On September 01 2015 11:11 whatisthisasheep wrote: I swear all Brady has to do is say he is retiring as a direct result of the commissioners ineptitude and gross misconduct. Goodel would drop the case against Brady to save face. Since when has Goodell let his ineptitude and gross misconduct deter him from doing anything? | ||
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Jibba
United States22883 Posts
On September 02 2015 23:04 Jaaaaasper wrote: You got a rb suspended for the first three games of the season with the 9th pick, shocker. He's suspended 2 and he's the best PPR rb prospect this year, after the suspension. Even with, he shouldn't fall below 5, after AP, Charles, Lacy, Brown. | ||
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tonight
United States11130 Posts
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QuanticHawk
United States32132 Posts
On September 01 2015 13:58 Jibba wrote: Normally I'm good, it's just it's IDP. Players #2-14 are all like within 10 points of each other on the year. I'm not falling for the Abdullah hype, and Megatron is so underrated right now it's crazy - that's not homerism. ![]() Johnson, Tate, and Stafford are all way underrated. Stafford's automatic for 4000yds in any year, and CJ is good for 1000 without question. Tate also was dropping a ton in drafts and he had almost 1400yds last year. I think both will hit 1000 again with all the questions surrounding the run game. TDs go up and down every year for virtually every player. Unless you've got a TD machine like AP or someone like that expect down years from time to time. It's good to buy low after those down years A team throwing as much as DEt it's a matter of time before that goes up On September 03 2015 02:49 Jibba wrote: He's suspended 2 and he's the best PPR rb prospect this year, after the suspension. Even with, he shouldn't fall below 5, after AP, Charles, Lacy, Brown. Agreed, he has no business dropping below 5. Our league someone took him at 2, but I still got Lacy at 5 because the doofus ahead of me went after Luck. | ||
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Shotcoder
United States2316 Posts
EDIT: PPR League | ||
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