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NFL 2015 Season - Page 124

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QuanticHawk
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States32135 Posts
October 03 2015 14:40 GMT
#2461
On October 02 2015 19:02 SweeTLemonS[TPR] wrote:
It's hard to say a guy who threw 21 TDs to 12 INTs in his rookie year with James Jones as his number one WR is a bad QB. It's not that Jones is terrible, he's clearly not, but neither is he a game changer. I'm also not claiming that Carr is going to be a great QB, but he's definitely good. I would absolutely take him over at least 17 of this year's starters, and he's on par with 3 more.

On par with: Bridgewater, Palmer, E. Manning.

Carr and Teddie had pretty similar seasons, except that Carr's was way better statistically. The point is that both of them showed some promise.

I may sound crazy with the other two, but I'm factoring historical performance, age, and cost too. No doubt I would want Palmer or Manning over him right now, but if the team is young and doesn't look like they're going to contend in the next year or two, then they're no good to me. He's certainly a better long term solution based on his age, too. If he continues to progress (always a huge if, I know), he could be a 10+ year starter. You're not getting 10+ good years out of Eli or Palmer.

I would definitely take him over:

+ Show Spoiler +
Newton
Stafford
Tannehill
Bradford
Kaepernick
Smith
Cutler
Dalton
Bortles
Foles
Winston
Mariota
Cousins
Pickspatrick
Taylor
McCown
Hoyer/Mallett


The only one I feel remotely compelled to defend my thoughts on is Newton, who I think could be a really good QB. I'm looking at the real world in this case, and thinking I'd rather be a Raiders fan than a Panthers fan right now. The Panthers are like the Bears of the 2000s with Lovie. They're good enough to win 9-12 games a year, they may make a deep playoff run or two, but they're just not going to win a Super Bowl.

And the Panther's front office seems to be refusing to give this poor bastard a WR to throw to; I know he was supposed to have Kelvin Benjamin this year, and they probably would have grown really well together this season, but Benjamin is out, and they have no talent at WR otherwise (can you imagine this team without Olsen? Good Lord!).

And if you break that down by guys drafted after 2010-a fair point for saying they're definitely still in the first half of their careers, barring some catastrophic injury--then there are two QBs I would definitely want over Carr right now: Luck and Wilson. Again, Teddie is there with him; talent-wise, I think Cam is there too. Though I doubt either will be great, Winston or Mariota could be: it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong.




I disagree about your first three. Tannehill is probably behind him in my eyes, but Newton and Stafford are at worst pretty even. Dalton maybe but frnakly I think he's just an average-ish starter who happens to have two really good RBs, a good te, and a stud WR. He's basically another Flacco, good enough to start sure, def win some games, but not elite and never will be.

I also think Marriota, Bortles and Winston are all too early to call (imo only Marriota will emerge as a quality starter eventually) But I def like Carr.
PROFESSIONAL GAMER - SEND ME OFFERS TO JOIN YOUR TEAM - USA USA USA
DannyJ
Profile Joined March 2010
United States5110 Posts
October 03 2015 14:52 GMT
#2462
Carr is awesome! And I'm not just saying that because he was the guy I was stuck with in fantasy after Big Ben went down.
QuanticHawk
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States32135 Posts
October 03 2015 14:54 GMT
#2463
On October 02 2015 20:11 SweeTLemonS[TPR] wrote:
I'm not going to read 122 pages, but can we talk about how stupid these front offices are for paying these really mediocre QBs $20M a year? I know that they have to win games to keep people in the seats, so that they can keep generating revenue, but Dalton is not going to win a Super Bowl. Kaepernick will not win a Super Bowl; Stafford won't either. These guys aren't good enough to turn subpar receivers into studs the way that guys like Rodgers do, so why are they getting paid like Rodgers?

Seattle (and really the entire NFC West) gave everyone the blueprint, although Seattle shat all over it this year: be great everywhere else, and just be good at QB.

Wilson is a very good QB (he's top 10; I think I'd put him at 9), and while his intangibles cannot be overlooked--there are few quarterbacks that could throw four interceptions in the NFC Championship game and still have what it takes to lead a comeback victory--his play often leaves something to be desired. Although Seahawks don't win in spite of him, they don't necessarily win because of him. And if not for Lynch, the Packers probably win the game in a blowout.

What makes them good is that they're great at almost every other position. They've had one of the most dominant defense in the league since 2011. Lynch has been the most dominant HB of the past three years, and the WRs are good enough that Wilson doesn't have to throw them open all the time.

Wilson is closer to Alex Smith than Aaron Rodgers, in my opinion. Wilson also suffers from being short, and being a bad pocket passer, which I think are related problems. He is incredibly reliant on his mobility buying extra time for coverage to break down, and he has also benefited from a stellar O-line to aid that process. Why give him four years and $87M at the probable cost of another impact player?

For at least this year and next year, it's logical to pay Wilson because they know he's capable of bringing them to a Super Bowl, and the rest of the team is in place. The Seahawks aren't the greatest example, but the impact of paying Wilson will become clear in the next couple of years, and more importantly, it lays the foundation for expanding the point: if there's a perceivable problem with paying a top 10 QB $22M per year, why in the world is it acceptable to pay Dalton that same money? Why pay any QB that isn't an incredible passer, on par with the usual names, who also lacks the uniqueness of Wilson?

I think the logical progression for the NFL is to stop overpaying bad quarterbacks. Drafting Winston number one, and Mariota two, this year means that no matter how good the rest of the team gets, these guys will be there for at least five years, irrespective of whether or not they're capable of winning a Super Bowl. It also means that they're really unlikely to pick a QB in the third or fourth because the pick is better spent on someone that will play that year. The top-tier backups can win in the right situation, and even if they can't, at least you're not married to them. At least the team would be willing to give their fifth round QB a shot at taking the starting job from the bum that has it if they hadn't committed nearly $20M to the bum. Seattle's willingness to bench their highly (over)paid QB allowed Wilson to start, but most teams aren't intelligent enough--or, at the least, willing enough--to do that. Does anyone think McCarron would ever get enough reps to take Dalton's spot, even if he was significantly better? Highly improbable. So here's to another five years of watching Dalton suck, Bengals fans. Here's to another few years of Kaepernick bumbling around the field, never making it to his second read, and on and on we go.


The value of those megacontracts isn't necessarily about whether the player is elite, it's a reflection of the circumstances: for a majority of teams, if you let a Dalton or Kap walk, as mediocre as best as they are, the immediate starting options become Blane Gabbert and Aj McCarron. I honestly think Kap and the Niners are such shit that they might not even lose that many wins by switching (I really fucking hate Kap now FYI). The Bengals are not more than a 5-6 win team without Dalton.

Fact of the matter is that QB is the only position that handles the ball on every play, and there's only 32 starters at any time in the league. This was discussed recently in this thread, but look at the QB talent now. Rodgers is really the only elite qb who is in his prime years of late 20s early 30s.

The value is tied to how hard it is to replace a qb, even a solidly mediocre one like Dalton. It's extremely rare that a top 15 QB goes FA. So basically if teams were set on letting mediocre QBs walk come contract time, they're most likely building in the draft, which means most likely at least 3+ years until that player is good.

If the team followed the Hawks recipe of great everywhere and just good at QB, and they let the starting qb walk, that entire window hinges on a rookie or a shitty FA. That's why teams are more apt to pay the QB, and make cuts at other positions that are far easier to replace, especially through later rounds in the draft.
PROFESSIONAL GAMER - SEND ME OFFERS TO JOIN YOUR TEAM - USA USA USA
Jaaaaasper
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
United States10225 Posts
October 03 2015 16:03 GMT
#2464
Technically a center handles the ball on every play as well, and all o-line men are involved in every play as well.
Hey do you want to hear a joke? Chinese production value. | I thought he had a aegis- Ayesee | When did 7ing mad last have a good game, 2012?
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 03 2015 16:55 GMT
#2465
On October 04 2015 01:03 Jaaaaasper wrote:
Technically a center handles the ball on every play as well, and all o-line men are involved in every play as well.

Some o linemen can be rotated out though during games
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Ryuhou)aS(
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
United States1174 Posts
October 03 2015 17:09 GMT
#2466
On October 04 2015 01:55 Shellshock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 04 2015 01:03 Jaaaaasper wrote:
Technically a center handles the ball on every play as well, and all o-line men are involved in every play as well.

Some o linemen can be rotated out though during games


true but typically they do not. o line's are usually a unit. d line's will rotate a lot though
BW. There will always be a special place in my heart for the game I spent 10 years to be mediocre at.
TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-10-03 17:25:16
October 03 2015 17:20 GMT
#2467
Week 4

Jets > Dolphins: Fire Philbin already!
Bills > Gaints: Buffalo show NY who's the baddest in the state. Tyrus continues to impress.
Raiders > Bears: Baddest Chicago gets crushed yet again.
Colts > > Jaguars: Winning ugly because you can in the bad AFC South.
Panthers > Buccaneers: Close game again against a bad offense.
Eagles > Redskins: Close game because Philadelphia can mind trick Washington into bad turnovers.
Falcons > Texans: Atlanta's easy schedule continues agains AFC baddies.
Bengals > Chiefs: Bad luck rides on the backs of Kansas City.
Chargers > Browns:A bad San Diego is still more competent than Cleveland.
Packers > 49Ers: Green Bay crushes a bad opponent.
Cardinals > Ram: Cardinals don't crush a decent opponent.
Vikings > Broncos: Denver defense gets a bad match up.
Cowboys > Saints: Put a fork in New Orleans because bad Weeden disappears for four quarters.
Seahawks > Lions: Not as bad as Chicago; Seattle still cruises.
Moderator我们是个踏实的赞助商模式俱乐部
QuanticHawk
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States32135 Posts
October 03 2015 18:38 GMT
#2468
On October 04 2015 01:03 Jaaaaasper wrote:
Technically a center handles the ball on every play as well, and all o-line men are involved in every play as well.

yeah technically true haha. My point was basically that if you do not have a qb who can regularly move the ball downfield, your team can be fantastic elsewhere but ultimately that's far more crippling that in other positions.

Since 2000, the only team that won the SB while defying this was Baltimore with that fucker Dilfer at the helm. Even though Brad Johnson was not a stud, he was at least league average and quite good that year actually. Same thing with Flacco. He is, at worst, league average.

Johnson and Flacco were at least good enough to move the chains, score, and not allow defenses to cheat up on the run game. While it blows to pay those guys in the same stratosphere as Rodgers, the alternative is gamble on a draft pick who probably wouldn't even be good for a few years, or go get a weak qb from FA.

PROFESSIONAL GAMER - SEND ME OFFERS TO JOIN YOUR TEAM - USA USA USA
QuanticHawk
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States32135 Posts
October 03 2015 18:44 GMT
#2469
Jets > Dolphins: Dolphins look real bad. Jets look at least semi competent as long as they can run and play decent D.
Bills > Giants: The giants are shit outside of Eli to Beckham.
Raiders > Bears: I too have Carr on my fantasty team, and he is going to poop on the bears.
Colts > > Jaguars: Jags bad.
Panthers > Buccaneers: Cam, for all his faults, is good enough to drag the Panthers to the W.
Eagles > Redskins: The Eagles are shit, but the Skins are a special kind of shit.
Falcons < Texans: Falcons are really not that good, and the Texans really aren't that bad. I think the D and foster coming back make for an upset.
Bengals < Chiefs: Another one where I think the favorite isn't as good as advertised, and the underdog is better than it seems.
Chargers > Browns: bring back Johnny Football
Packers > 49Ers: LOL
Cardinals > Ram: Cardinals don't crush a decent opponent.
Vikings < Broncos: Vikes bad
Cowboys > Saints: Saints are really shitty this year.
Seahawks > Lions: Lions just aren't good enough this year to win here.
PROFESSIONAL GAMER - SEND ME OFFERS TO JOIN YOUR TEAM - USA USA USA
andrewlt
Profile Joined August 2009
United States7702 Posts
October 04 2015 02:25 GMT
#2470
Brad Johnson turned in a random Pro Bowl campaign that year the Bucs won the Superbowl. And Flacco turned into Joe Montana for 4 games in the playoffs that year the Ravens won. Absent an elite qb, you just have to be good at numerous positions and hope your league average qb randomly flukes into a Superbowl victory through the power of small sample size.
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
October 04 2015 03:21 GMT
#2471
Josh Scobee got released. Who saw that coming?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Jaaaaasper
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
United States10225 Posts
October 04 2015 05:33 GMT
#2472
Me after he missed two or three kicks week one against the Pats.
Hey do you want to hear a joke? Chinese production value. | I thought he had a aegis- Ayesee | When did 7ing mad last have a good game, 2012?
Kevin_Sorbo
Profile Joined November 2011
Canada3217 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-10-04 14:35:28
October 04 2015 14:35 GMT
#2473
On October 04 2015 14:33 Jaaaaasper wrote:
Me after he missed two or three kicks week one against the Pats.

they still cut a guy they traded for. Its mildly surprising considering his performance on the field.

The Dolphins really look like a dumpster fire. Werent they supposed to be all hype, challenging the pats for the division title this year??
The mind is like a parachute, it doesnt work unless its open. - Zappa
TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
October 04 2015 14:38 GMT
#2474
Miami should just blow this one up.
Moderator我们是个踏实的赞助商模式俱乐部
AgentW
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
United States7725 Posts
October 04 2015 14:40 GMT
#2475
It's looking like Miami is going to leave Philbin in London a la Lane Kiffin.
Who's the bigger scrub, the scrub, or the scrub who loses to him?
Kevin_Sorbo
Profile Joined November 2011
Canada3217 Posts
October 04 2015 14:41 GMT
#2476
I wonder if Suh will coast for the rest of his career
The mind is like a parachute, it doesnt work unless its open. - Zappa
TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-10-04 14:52:37
October 04 2015 14:51 GMT
#2477
I was expecting the game to be over with Tannenhill against Jets secondary, but then there were those two PI calls.
Moderator我们是个踏实的赞助商模式俱乐部
Teoita
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Italy12246 Posts
October 04 2015 15:07 GMT
#2478
Damn the Dolphins look terrible
ModeratorProtoss all-ins are like a wok. You can throw whatever you want in there and it will turn out alright.
GTR
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
51596 Posts
October 04 2015 16:03 GMT
#2479
is this the first time luck hasnt started since being drafted? at least my fantasy team is probably going to lose this week cause he's not starting =[
Commentator
Grettin
Profile Joined April 2010
42400 Posts
October 04 2015 16:09 GMT
#2480
On October 05 2015 01:03 GTR wrote:
is this the first time luck hasnt started since being drafted? at least my fantasy team is probably going to lose this week cause he's not starting =[


Apparently yes.
"If I had force-fields in Brood War, I'd never lose." -Bisu
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