• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 19:59
CEST 01:59
KST 08:59
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL20] Ro24 Preview Pt1: Runway132v2 & SC: Evo Complete: Weekend Double Feature3Team Liquid Map Contest #21 - Presented by Monster Energy9uThermal's 2v2 Tour: $15,000 Main Event18Serral wins EWC 202549
Community News
Maestros of The Game—$20k event w/ live finals in Paris11Weekly Cups (Aug 11-17): MaxPax triples again!13Weekly Cups (Aug 4-10): MaxPax wins a triple6SC2's Safe House 2 - October 18 & 195Weekly Cups (Jul 28-Aug 3): herO doubles up6
StarCraft 2
General
Geoff 'iNcontroL' Robinson has passed away RSL Revival patreon money discussion thread Weekly Cups (Aug 11-17): MaxPax triples again! What mix of new and old maps do you want in the next 1v1 ladder pool? (SC2) : I made a 5.0.12/5.0.13 replay fix
Tourneys
Maestros of The Game—$20k event w/ live finals in Paris Master Swan Open (Global Bronze-Master 2) $5,100+ SEL Season 2 Championship (SC: Evo) Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series
Strategy
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 487 Think Fast Mutation # 486 Watch the Skies Mutation # 485 Death from Below Mutation # 484 Magnetic Pull
Brood War
General
Flash Announces (and Retracts) Hiatus From ASL Maps with Neutral Command Centers Victoria gamers [ASL20] Ro24 Preview Pt1: Runway How do the new Battle.net ranks translate?
Tourneys
[ASL20] Ro24 Group A [ASL20] Ro24 Group B Small VOD Thread 2.0 [Megathread] Daily Proleagues
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Fighting Spirit mining rates [G] Mineral Boosting Muta micro map competition
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread General RTS Discussion Thread Nintendo Switch Thread Path of Exile Dawn of War IV
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread The Games Industry And ATVI
Fan Clubs
INnoVation Fan Club SKT1 Classic Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Anime Discussion Thread Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Formula 1 Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
High temperatures on bridge(s) Gtx660 graphics card replacement Installation of Windows 10 suck at "just a moment"
TL Community
The Automated Ban List TeamLiquid Team Shirt On Sale
Blogs
Breaking the Meta: Non-Stand…
TrAiDoS
INDEPENDIENTE LA CTM
XenOsky
[Girl blog} My fema…
artosisisthebest
Sharpening the Filtration…
frozenclaw
ASL S20 English Commentary…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 2684 users

Ukraine Crisis - Page 453

Forum Index > Closed
Post a Reply
Prev 1 451 452 453 454 455 577 Next
There is a new policy in effect in this thread. Anyone not complying will be moderated.

New policy, please read before posting:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=21393711
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
April 25 2014 20:38 GMT
#9041



Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
nunez
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Norway4003 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-25 21:03:23
April 25 2014 21:02 GMT
#9042
so these are not osce observers, but a 'military verification team' invited into ukraine presumably by current govt(?), under terms of vienna document 2011 to observe separatist militia inside of sloviansk?

where does this osce observer confusion stem from? or am i the one who is confused.
were they posing as osce observers?

regardless it looks bad for the 'mayor', which i think is good. the less support he has the better.
conspired against by a confederacy of dunces.
DrCooper
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany261 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-25 21:04:50
April 25 2014 21:04 GMT
#9043
On April 26 2014 06:02 nunez wrote:
so these are not osce observers, but a 'military verification team' invited into ukraine presumably by current govt(?), under terms of vienna document 2011 to observe separatist militia inside of sloviansk?

where does this osce observer confusion stem from? or am i the one who is confused.
were they posing as osce observers?

regardless it looks bad for the 'mayor', which i think is good. the less support he has the better.

Yes, they are not the OSCE observers.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-25 21:07:43
April 25 2014 21:05 GMT
#9044
On April 26 2014 06:02 nunez wrote:
so these are not osce observers, but a 'military verification team' invited into ukraine presumably by current govt(?), under terms of vienna document 2011 to observe separatist militia inside of sloviansk?

where does this osce observer confusion stem from? or am i the one who is confused.
were they posing as osce observers?

regardless it looks bad for the 'mayor', which i think is good. the less support he has the better.


They are generally lumped in the same category, the distinction is news to me (and to every analyst I know). I guess we need to wait for the OSCE to write a piece longer than 4 tweets, or perhaps the German FM will say something.

***
The German FO might be too busy dealing with their foreign policy strategy imploding...

Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Roman666
Profile Joined April 2012
Poland1440 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-25 21:18:58
April 25 2014 21:14 GMT
#9045
On April 26 2014 06:02 nunez wrote:
so these are not osce observers, but a 'military verification team' invited into ukraine presumably by current govt(?), under terms of vienna document 2011 to observe separatist militia inside of sloviansk?

where does this osce observer confusion stem from? or am i the one who is confused.
were they posing as osce observers?

regardless it looks bad for the 'mayor', which i think is good. the less support he has the better.

They are not OSCE observers per se, but rather a "military inspection team" organized by OSCE. I can see that the original article in Polish media which I read before has been updated to reflect that. EDIT: Or it stated that from the start, hell I have no idea now.
nunez
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Norway4003 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-25 21:25:00
April 25 2014 21:22 GMT
#9046
it seems as if the visit was organized by ukraine, under terms of an agreement between members of the osce. it doesn't imply any osce involvement per se.

i wonder if these are the same guys who were reported to be 'barred from the city by the separatists on 21 April' re: washingon post piece quoted at wiki.

if that's their car (wiki pic) and it says 'osce' on it that probably would explain some of the confusion. it also seems, after precursory browsing, like the vienna document is more for letting member states obeserve your troops, so them being inside slovyansk seems kinda off. but we'll have to wait and see. this is a thriller!
conspired against by a confederacy of dunces.
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
April 25 2014 21:23 GMT
#9047
@nunez

As far as I know the Kyiv government actually collected weapons from many Right Sector members and tried to arrest several of the more radical members. Their leader has gone into politics and claims the Right Sector is no longer militant, but a political party. Again: What is proof of who doing what in an open rebellion? Investigation by Ukraine is to some extend underway, as terribly inefficient and biased as they may be. Some more neutral organisations are also looking through the happenings in Kyiv.
As to not hold different standards, the ukrainian government has provided for a pass on punishing of the eastern ukrainian separatists and the consession of a federalisation of the country. It doesn't seem like different standards.

If the members did something wrong in Kyiv, they should be prosecuted, just like the terrorists, sorry tourists from Russia should, but no punishment for both sides seems far less problematic and easier to administer justly in the situation.

OSCE has mentioned Right Sector twice in their reports. The first being a training camp in Lviv where they had recieved new equipment on april 14. The latter on april 24 where the members in Lviv were claiming to have been absorbed by the national guard. As long as they follow orders, having weapon-capable people might be advantageous for building up a new army. Such an institution works by the military leaders being the people with real power to act politically, again assuming orders are followed, thus when Right Sector is accepted as footsoldiers they are not in a position to act without orders!

I don't think Kyiv has any control over the Right Sector (just as they barely has any control over the military) and conspiracies about US being their sugar daddy seems less likely than them plundering a Lviv military installation and/or getting weapons provided by a certain oligarch. US has not been a politically positive force in what has happened Ukraine, but from there to having been the instigator of the armed revolution is a very long road.

As for Russia having to deescalate verbally seems completely reasonable and it is constructive to ease tention as to cool down both Pravda Sector and the separatists. Words are cheap unless you are seeing everything as a zero-sum geopolitical Game of Thrones.
Repeat before me
nunez
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Norway4003 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-25 22:34:23
April 25 2014 21:38 GMT
#9048
@radi

attempt at collecting weapons does not mean properly disarmed. wrt different standards i was thinking of russia vs western govts in condemning criminals in maidan / anti-maidan movement.

i do think fear induced by absorbing right sector into the naitonal guard heavily outweighs the gains of having more capable people. rather it seemed like a misguided attempt to placate to get them under control.

i think it's the reasonable thing to do too, but i wouldn't hold my breath.

btw from this video supposedly showing stuff taken off the observation team or whatever, you can clearly see 'turkish general staff - skud' on the medallion @0:47 which according to this wikileak is:

Turkish Arms Control Implementation and Verification Center (SKUD)

but no turks being reported yet.
conspired against by a confederacy of dunces.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
April 25 2014 22:07 GMT
#9049
Anyone want to translate a a literal fuckload?
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
April 25 2014 22:09 GMT
#9050
On April 26 2014 06:38 nunez wrote:
@radi

attempt at collecting weapons does not mean properly disarmed. wrt different standards i was thinking of russia vs western govts in condemning criminals in maidan / anti-maidan movement.

i do think fear induced by absorbing right sector into the naitonal guard heavily outweighs the gains of having more capable people. rather it seemed like a misguided attempt to placate to get them under control.

i think it's the reasonable thing to do too, but i wouldn't hold my breath.

I am unsure about the exact russia vs. western governments condemnations. I think what happened at Maidan did draw some condemnation from EU when Right Sector were instigating an untimely coup after the deal with Yanukovych was signed. Crimea drew a lot of condemnation for obvious reasons and I think the condemnation of what is happening in eastern Ukraine is as much a reaction to force Russia to keep the beep out as it is specifically the occupations.

However, the fully fledged military grade rebels should draw more condemnation. Guns does change the power equation a lot.
That was not what you saw in Kyiv where it was mostly molotovs, trebuchets and blunt force weapons! (I keep the sniper(s) out of it for obvious reasons.)

I respect the fear for Right Sector in the army and dislike the insufficient control the ukrainian government has over armed people in general.
Repeat before me
nunez
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Norway4003 Posts
April 25 2014 22:29 GMT
#9051
@radi
on guns yarosh claimed “It is enough,” he says, “to defend all of Ukraine from the internal occupiers” (from 4th feb interview with time). i have yet to see fully fledged military grade rebels, but armed anti-maidans in military fatigues are dime a dozen.
conspired against by a confederacy of dunces.
nunez
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Norway4003 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-25 22:46:43
April 25 2014 22:35 GMT
#9052
Official: Military observers detained in Ukraine

Pro-Russian forces detained a team of military observers traveling across eastern Ukraine with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Friday, according to a representative of the separatists.

The team was being held in the eastern city of Slovyansk, said Stella Khorosheva, a spokeswoman for the town's self-proclaimed separatist mayor. She said the group possessed "suspicious materials," but said they were unharmed and would be released after further investigation.
ap

no mention of any turk yet... maybe he's the german translator...

[image loading]
Turkish Arms Control Implementation and Verification Center (SKUD) - wikileak

so it's a team of military observers travelling with the osce, whose connection with the osce was that they were invited by urkaine govt to observe in accordance with the vienna document. being released it seems.
conspired against by a confederacy of dunces.
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-25 22:54:28
April 25 2014 22:49 GMT
#9053
On April 26 2014 07:29 nunez wrote:
@radi
on guns yarosh claimed “It is enough,” he says, “to defend all of Ukraine from the internal occupiers” (from 4th feb interview with time). i have yet to see fully fledged military grade rebels, but armed anti-maidans in military fatigues are dime a dozen.

Absolutely. But these types of weapons were not used in the riots (barring snipers and Berkut).
Ok. Armed rebels with military equipment it is. The fully fledged military grade "rebels" were prominently present in Crimea, but they are seemingly not in eastern Ukraine.
Repeat before me
Deleted User 183001
Profile Joined May 2011
2939 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-25 23:45:22
April 25 2014 23:24 GMT
#9054
On April 25 2014 22:19 Ghanburighan wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +





Russia's unexpected interest rate hike has failed to assuage rising investor fears over the potential fallout from Moscow's Ukrainian quarrel, with the Russian bond market suffering a rout on Friday.

The government's generic 10-year borrowing costs shot up 29 basis points to 9.65 per cent, near the highest in at least four years, while the rouble – initially steadied by the Russian central bank's surprise decision - quickly lost its footing again to drop 0.7 per cent against the US dollar.

Standard & Poor's downgraded Russia's credit rating to just one step above "junk" today, but the real concern of investors was the widening rift with Ukraine and the west, with the US readying another round of sanctions after last weekend's diplomatic accord unravelled.

...


***

Judicator, perhaps this is up your alley to give comments on:



***



***


***


Apparently, if true, not deterred by new Russian training exercises (recall that Crimea was invaded under the pretext of a training exercise too, see the ICDS paper above).

***





Yeah sure dude (in response to making comments on 4 of the tweets). I have to run soon so this is going to be short.

2nd and 3rd tweets from Sonne are very obvious. While people do support the insurgents, it isn't anywhere close to overwhelming popularity. Why? There's several reasons, but the most prominent is that people generally don't like thugs with guns walking around the streets. Unless Ukrainians are an anomaly in terms of human behavior, which I doubt, the unrest and wariness caused by the Slavic and less violent version of Islamic jihadists is not making people happy. I fully agree with Sonne's implications that people on the whole do not like them.

Of course, there's a huge difference between military soldiers and random thugs, as was seen in Crimea where people on the whole seemed to be a lot less stressed about the situation considering it was mostly rank-and-file Russian soldiers rather than random guys from all over the old Soviet Union who were about as presentable as gangsters. Of course there's other reasons like people don't like this pro-Russian insurgency, people don't like that this is disrupting their lives, people don't like that these guys are disrupting the basic functionality of these towns and their administration, etc. Unless these insurgents were involved in a war against Zombie Hitler who wanted to exterminate these people, then I don't see a case where these insurgents would have popular support.

The paper posted by Lucas was a good read. It's very fascinating to read on military science. It's like they're taking a page out of Uncle Sam's playbook and expanding on it. Welcome to the modern era Russia, where you have to jump through hoops to "legitimize" military action.

Minus the military parts (as there was no warfare involved in Crimea), a lot of the other things were certainly seen in Crimea, most particularly the third phase.

However, considering Russian forces were outnumbered (iirc) and their heaviest AFV was a fucking APC for christsake. While the potency of Russian infantry and especially the special forces on their own should not be understated, the Ukrainians had the clear advantage in firepower, strategic positioning, and numbers. However, it was the psychological war that won it for the Russians in Crimea. Very easy. No tank/rocket artillery/SAM columns required. Overall a good piece imho, it adds a lot of theoreticals that haven't been observed yet with this sort of strategy, especially the parts about warfare. Despite that, this is a fair analysis of Russia's entrance to the modern era of military strategy, where you can't simply declare war for X reasons and be done with it.

The fourth tweet (from Kyiv Post) is well... alarming. Ukraine is entering the trap I outlined in earlier posts. They NEED to deal with the insurgency, but then they can't without giving justification to Russia to come on in.

On April 25 2014 20:37 zeo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 25 2014 20:27 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:
On April 25 2014 20:23 zeo wrote:
On April 25 2014 20:19 Fjodorov wrote:
On April 25 2014 20:10 zeo wrote:
On April 25 2014 19:54 Fjodorov wrote:
@JudicatorHammurabi

I think de-escalation is a major point that Russia is ignoring and the biggest one. Even if Russia isnt supporting the separatists to the extent that Kerry believes, its still a huge boost to them that there are 50 0000 russian troops on the border. And it would be a big and important signal to the separatists if Russia would with draw alot of those troops.

Just like how all the foreign diplomats and ambassadors coming to Maidan was the trigger that gave the hooligans and extremists free reign for the violence that followed.

On April 25 2014 19:57 Cheerio wrote:
On April 25 2014 16:13 Ghanburighan wrote:
Kerry's statement in full:


SECRETARY KERRY: It has now been a week since the United States, the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine met in Geneva. We did so after a phone call between President Putin and President Obama, in which both leaders expressed a desire to avoid further escalation in Ukraine. We met in Geneva with a clear mission: to improve security conditions and find political solutions to the conflict threatening the sovereignty and unity of Ukraine. And right there in Geneva, EU High Representative Ashton and I made clear that both Russia and Ukraine had to demonstrate more than good faith. They needed to take concrete actions in order to meet their commitments.

The simple reality is you can’t resolve a crisis when only one side is willing to do what is necessary to avoid a confrontation. Every day since we left Geneva – every day, even up to today, when Russia sent armored battalions right up the Luhansk Oblast border – the world has witnessed a tale of two countries, two countries with vastly different understandings of what it means to uphold an international agreement.

One week later, it is clear that only one side, one country, is keeping its word. And for anyone who wants to create gray areas out of black, or find in the fine print crude ways to justify crude actions, let’s get real – the Geneva agreement is not open to interpretation. It is not vague. It is not subjective. It is not optional. What we agreed to in Geneva is as simple as it is specific.

We agreed that all sides would refrain from violence, intimidation, and taking provocative actions. We agreed that illegal groups would lay down their arms and that, in exchange for amnesty, they would hand over the public buildings and spaces that they occupied. We agreed that to implement these objectives – and this is important, to implement this – monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe would have unfettered access to parts of Ukraine where they were needed most. And we agreed that all parties would work to create that access and to provide help to the OSCE in order to do this. We agreed that the OSCE would report from the ground whether the rights, security, and dignity of Ukrainian citizens was being protected.

From day one, the Government of Ukraine started making good on its commitments – from day one. From day one, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk has kept his word. He immediately agreed to help vacate buildings. He suspended Ukraine’s counterterrorism initiative over Easter, choosing de-escalation, despite Ukraine’s legitimate, fundamental right to defend its own territory and its own people. From day one, the Ukrainian Government sent senior officials to work with the OSCE, in keeping with the agreement, to send them to work in regions where Russia had voiced its most urgent concerns about the security of Russian speakers and ethnic Russians. And on day one, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk went on live television and committed his government publicly to all of the people of Ukraine that – and these are his words – committed them to undertake comprehensive constitutional reform that will strengthen the powers of the regions. He directly addressed the concerns expressed by the Russians, and he did so on day one.

He also made a personal appeal to Russian-speaking Ukrainians, pledging to support – and again, these are his words – a special status to the Russian language and the protection of the language. And in keeping with his Geneva commitments, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk has publicly announced amnesty legislation – once more, in his words – for all those who surrender arms, come out of the premises and will begin with the Ukrainian people to build a sovereign and independent Ukraine. That is a promise made by the interim government to the people of Ukraine.

And by complying with actions requested by Russia, like removing the barricades in the Maidan and cleaning up the square and ensuring that all ongoing demonstrations in Kyiv are actually government-approved and peaceful, Ukraine is thereby taking tangible, concrete steps to move beyond the division of the last months. That is how a government defines keeping your word. That is leadership that upholds both the spirit and the letter of a Geneva agreement.

The world has rightly judged that Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and the Government of Ukraine are working in good faith. And the world, sadly, has rightly judged that Russia has put its faith in distraction, deception, and destabilization. For seven days, Russia has refused to take a single concrete step in the right direction. Not a single Russian official, not one, has publicly gone on television in Ukraine and called on the separatists to support the Geneva agreement, to support the stand-down, to give up their weapons, and get out of the Ukrainian buildings. They have not called on them to engage in that activity.

In fact, the propaganda bullhorn that is the state-sponsored Russia Today program, has been deployed to promote – actually, Russia Today network – has deployed to promote President Putin’s fantasy about what is playing out on the ground. They almost spend full time devoted to this effort to propagandize and to distort what is happening or not happening in Ukraine. Instead, in plain sight, Russia continues to fund, coordinate, and fuel a heavily armed separatist movement in Donetsk.

Meanwhile, Russian leaders are making increasingly outrageous claims to justify their action – that the CIA invented the internet in order to control the world or that the forces occupying buildings, armed to the teeth, wearing brand new matching uniforms and moving in disciplined military formation, are merely local activists seeking to exercise their legitimate rights. That is absurd, and there is no other word to describe it.

But in the 21st century, where every citizen can broadcast messages, images, and video from the palm of their hand, no amount of propaganda is capable of hiding such actions. No amount of propaganda will hide the truth, and the truth is there in the social media and across the pages of newspapers and in the video of televisions for all of the world to see. No amount of propaganda can withstand that kind of scrutiny today.

The world knows that peaceful protesters don’t come armed with grenade launchers and automatic weapons, the latest issue from the Russian arsenal, hiding the insignias on their brand new matching military uniforms, and speaking in dialects that every local knows comes from thousands of miles away. The world knows that the Russian intelligence operatives arrested in Ukraine didn’t just take a wrong turn on the highway. In fact, we have seen soldiers wearing uniforms identical to the ones Russian soldiers wore in Crimea last month.

As international observers on the ground have borne witness, prior to Russia’s escalation, there was no violence. There was no broad-scale assault on the rights of people in the east. Ukraine was largely stable and peaceful, including in the south and the east. Even as we were preparing to meet in Geneva, we know that the Russian intelligence services were involved in organizing local pro-Russian militias. And during the week leading up to the Geneva meetings, separatists seized at least 29 buildings. This is one more example of how Russia is stoking the very instability that they say they want to quell.

And in the weeks since this agreement, we have seen even more violence visited upon Ukrainians. Right after we left Geneva, separatists seized TV and radio stations that broadcast in the Ukrainian language. The mayor of Slovyansk was kidnapped the very day after the parties committed to end the violence and intimidations. Two days ago, one journalist was kidnapped and another went missing, bringing the total number of kidnapped journalists into the double digits. That same day, two dead bodies were found near Slovyansk. One of them was a city councilmember who had been knocked unconscious and thrown in a river with a weighted backpack strapped to him.

The Government of Ukraine has reported the arrest of Russian intelligence agents, including one yesterday who it says was responsible for establishing secure communications allowing Russia to coordinate destabilizing activities in Ukraine. And then, just this morning, separatist forces tried to overrun another arms depot.

Having failed to postpone Ukraine’s elections, having failed to halt a legitimate political process, Russia has instead chosen an illegitimate course of armed violence to try and achieve with the barrel of a gun and the force of a mob what couldn’t be achieved any other way. They’ve tried to create enough chaos in the east to delay or delegitimize the elections, or to force Ukraine to accept a federalism that gives Russia control over its domestic and foreign policies, or even force Ukraine to overreact and create an excuse for military intervention. This is a full-throated effort to actively sabotage the democratic process through gross external intimidation that has brought inside Ukraine, and it is worse even.

We have seen this movie before. We saw it most recently in Crimea, where similar subterfuge and sabotage by Russia was followed by a full invasion – an invasion, by the way, for which President Putin recently decorated Russian special forces at the Kremlin.

Now Russia claims that all of this is exaggerated, or even orchestrated, that Ukrainians can’t possibly be calling for a government free of corruption and coercion. Russia is actually mystified to see Ukraine’s neighbors and likeminded free people all over the world united with Ukrainians who want to build a better life and choose their leaders for themselves, by themselves.

Nobody should doubt Russia’s hand in this. As NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe wrote this week, “What is happening in eastern Ukraine is a military operation that is well planned and organized and we assess that it is being carried out at the direction of Russia.” Our intelligence community tells me that Russia’s intelligence and military intelligence services and special operators are playing an active role in destabilizing eastern Ukraine with personnel, weapons, money, operational planning, and coordination. The Ukrainians have intercepted and publicized command-and-control conversations from known Russian agents with their separatist clients in Ukraine. Some of the individual special operations personnel, who were active on Russia’s behalf in Chechnya, Georgia, and Crimea have been photographed in Slovyansk, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Some are even bragging about it by themselves on their Russian social media sites. And we’ve seen weapons and gear on the separatists that matches those worn and used by Russian special forces.

So following today’s threatening movement of Russian troops right up to Ukraine’s border, let me be clear: If Russia continues in this direction, it will not just be a grave mistake, it will be an expensive mistake. Already the international response to the choices made by Russia’s leaders is taking its toll on Russia’s economy. Prime Minister Medvedev has alluded to the cost Russia is already paying. Even President Putin has acknowledged it.

As investors’ confidence dwindles, some $70 billion in capital has fled the Russian financial system in the first quarter of 2014, more than all of last year. Growth estimates for 2014 have been revised downward by two to three percentage points. And this follows a year in which GDP growth was already the lowest since 2009. Meanwhile, the Russian Central Bank has had to spend more than $20 billion to defend the ruble, eroding Russia’s buffers against external shocks. Make no mistake that what I’ve just described is really just a snapshot and is also, regrettably, a preview of how the free world will respond if Russia continues to escalate what they had promised to de-escalate.

Seven days, two opposite responses, and one truth that cannot be ignored: The world will remain united for Ukraine. So I will say it again. The window to change course is closing. President Putin and Russia face a choice. If Russia chooses the path of de-escalation, the international community – all of us – will welcome it. If Russia does not, the world will make sure that the cost for Russia will only grow. And as President Obama reiterated earlier today, we are ready to act.
Source.


that's actually a very good statement. The facts he is talking about are all true. How Russia is supposed to deescalate I don't know. But russian coordinators kept their work all week long, which SBU has shown on a number of occasions. And as Kerry said, NONE of russian politicians called for separatists to put down arms and release captured buildings.

Actually most of what Kerry said was garbage tier propaganda:



Diplomats and ambassadors equal a 50 000 man army? Dont know why you even try to make a comparison like that since we are talking about the Geneve agreement.

There was an agreement about a peaceful resolution to Maidan that wouldn't alienate half the country and would guarantee a stable society until elections, I'm sure without the backing of certain superpowers the people on the street with handguns would not have said 'lol, we'll just take over the country and send tanks against anyone who says anything'

Then guys with snipers decided to make it a non-peaceful resolution, so that agreement did not stand from the previous (Yanukovich's) administration's side.

What? What snipers after the agreement was reached between Yanukovych and the opposition? o.O

The ones who were killing protesters bro.

On April 25 2014 22:52 Mc wrote:
@JudicatorHammurabi

I definitely TL;DR'ed you Apologies. I was hungover and your post was really long and I didn't like it's tone so I attacked it. I feel ashamed.

I'll give a valid response, that takes into account your entire post in a sec.

Hangovers suck hard. Just be sure to keep at least a liter of water handy. No dehydration = no hangover (at least in my experience).

On April 25 2014 23:44 Mc wrote:
@JudicatorHammurabi
So I did TL:DR you a bit but I disagree w/ some of your points and I believe you that your reasoning is faulty.

I agree with you that Russia doesn't care about the rebels - the rebels are a means to an end (destabilizing/punishing Ukraine). I agree that Russia has no direct control over the rebels. I agree that what a lot of Western media is implying (Kerry especially) is stating assumptions as fact and is exaggerating.

However, I disagree with you on what Russia can do to defuse the conflict. You multiple times stated that Russia can't really do much about it
Show nested quote +

Short of stepping in and telling them to shut up (assuming they wanted to), I don't think there's a whole lot Russia can do about this situation. But then, Russia can't step in without this being an invasion lol.

However, you can't "defuse" a situation you don't control. Short of crushing the insurgents themselves, they're doing what they can on their end of the bargain,

I think Russia is sending a very clear message to the insurgents by not helping them that Russia is not supporting the insurgency in Ukraine

As I stated Russia could 1.)Remove troops from the border 2.) Putin tells the rebels to disarm 3.) Putin tells the world that he won't invade E. Ukraine 4.) Russian parliament removes Putin's right to intervene to protect Russian speakers.

All four of these things are giving the rebels a feeling of purpose and protection. Clearly it would weaken the rebel's position if they knew that Russia wouldn't intervene. Would this solve the crisis? Probably not by itself, but it'd definitely be a huge step in the right direction. I don't know the exact wording of the Geneva agreement, but I think they agreed they'd all try to defuse the situation. Russia clearly isn't trying to defuse it.

The fact that Russia "is not supporting the insurgency" (by giving arms) does not mean that it's "sending a very clear message". First off, the rebels are really well armed already and I think have more arms than people who know how to use them at this point. Second off, Russia has explicitly 'supported' the rebels by massing troops and telling the world that they will intervene if Ukraine sends in the military. So the rebels still feel they have Russia's support, but they're just not 100% sure of it.

Show nested quote +

Regardless of the situation, Russian's refusal of help is even more significant an action than what you listed. Some words thrown the insurgents' way is minuscule a point in comparison.

I think the fact that the Russians aren't following our style and arming these insurgents to the teeth is doing a lot more than I or anyone expected of them.

Yes, Russia is also not bombing Kiev. Good job Russia, you are really 'helping'. Yes that's great that Russia isn't giving them arms directly (maybe not giving them arms at all). But it's still doing things to make sure this unrest happens.

We both agree that Russia wants this unrest to continue. I believe that Russia took purposeful action to help provoke it (threats to invade, troop build ups). I also believe that it wouldn't be surprising if Russia were doing more.
Show nested quote +

We can say Russians are masters of espionage, but something on this scale and considering the insurgents are a bunch of buffoons who yell about anything that happens, this would have had a lot of proof by now. It's pretty difficult to hide. But, unfortunately, we have no proof, as you say.

I never said that Russia is literally orchestrating this. Russia doesn't have to do a lot or anything on a large scale to help the rebels because there is legitimate support for the rebels in E. Ukraine. However Russia could do little *extra things* like secretly giving them some weapons, or sabotage of Ukrainian troops, or killing this guy or that guy, or having a few FSB officers come in and help an attack on a radio tower, etc, are all in the realm of reasonable things to consider. I *am not* saying these things happened, just that similar actions could have and given Russia's behaviour in Crimea and elsewhere it *wouldn't be surprising*.

Furthermore, Russia would only do these extra things to make sure the rebels are solid enough to provide resistance, but to limit the chance of Russia being caught. So maybe the troop buildup on the Ukrainian border for a month, plus the threats of invasion were enough support to embolden the radicals in E. Ukraine to rise up. Maybe Russia didn't even need to do any 'extra work'.

However, given how much 'suggestions' I have seen of more direct Russian involvement, and given that this didn't seem like a very natural uprising (from the middle of March till April 7th things were relatively quiet, then suddenly all hell breaks loose and in less then a week dozens of buildings are taken over), I would say it's very probable that Russia did do some more direct meddling in the uprising.

First, let me be known I am not discounting anything you are stating. While probability outside the realm of statistical models and datasets is really iffy, I agree that there is a probability of everything you state occurring in present or future events.

Yes, Russia could do those 4 things, but they're not going to. Aside from the fact that Putin for obvious reasons will not do the 4 things that you list, it's also difficult to determine the outcome of these actions. Even assuming Putin wanted to do the 4 things you list, there is an associated risk for him. What if Putin does #2 and makes a global statement, and then the insurgents don't do anything? Then Konspiracy Kerry comes in and says "Lol Russia is trolling and behind the scenes these insurgents... I mean Russian soldiers are still being told by Moscow to be rowdy". Well, then Putin looks like a giant dumbass and then people actually start believing he's sleazy, when the reality is that the insurgents are just stubborn. Of course, this is all under the assumption Putin wanted to do these things.

You ever been out with a girl where it's not clear whether she likes your or not? She's not saying or doing anything that says she likes you or she hates you, but in reality she doesn't give a care about you? Russia is that girl. Everything is done "technically". By not supporting the insurgents, Russia is "technically" not escalating the insurgency. Being a smart ass is a typical way to play politics, so no surprise here. Not doing anything is "technically" achieving something. By not supporting the insurgents, Russia can say "Well, this isn't our fault" and can also say "Prove that not doing those 4 things is kindling this insurgency".
Of course, the latter statement is unnecessary, considering the conspiracy theory held by the US that these guys are more or less Russian soldiers directly commanded by Moscow. When you're being accused of something largely false, it makes it very easy to just be a smart ass/troll.


Sidenote: If Russia want to be a troll, they could do EXACTLY Kerry is saying is happening. Would Kerry's rhetoric even change? Maybe not, although he'd be certainly alarmed when half of Ukraine suddenly gets absorbed by Russia since there would ACTUALLY be Russian soldiers lol.

But I agree with you, Russia can do those 4 things. They won't though . If Kerry was more HONEST about the situation, Russia would be more pressured to actually take action one way (your points) or the other, instead of doing practically nothing different. However, Kerry's exaggerations are painting a scene that is most likely distant from the reality, giving Russia a some leverage for their own rhetoric.

So the rebels still feel they have Russia's support, but they're just not 100% sure of it.

And they're still idiots for feeling as such.

Yes, Russia is also not bombing Kiev. Good job Russia, you are really 'helping'.

No that's a huge thing. Please do not underestimate the horrors of war. Trust me, it is really really really fucking ugly. Big Bear going in Uncle Sam-style with dual revolvers is infinitely worse than the current situation. Let's hope that it never reaches that point. I agree Russia isn't helping with the other things, but not creating parking lots is keeping a bad situation from becoming infinitely worse. War is only pretty in video games. No one gets killed, and nerd rage is usually the worst outcome.

All sorts of "extra things" could have happened. I do not discount that possibility at all. The problem is, we don't know about practically any of it. It may appear logical that some "extra things" are going/did go on, but we haven't seen any of this, and it wouldn't be something simple to hide for a number of reasons, most notably that these insurgents literally do not shut up. Anything that happens, they are more than happy to talk about it. They're like gossip girls. They are the last people that Russian intelligence agents can trust with keeping secrets. Not to mention, there'd probably be all sorts of other evidence on top of that.

On April 25 2014 23:15 nunez wrote:
the anti-maidan protestors are doing exactly what the maidan were doing in this respect. uncle sam and big bear is not gonna kiss it right for maidan / anti-maidan, they have to sort it out themselves and so the ball is in kievs court if they consider themselves a legitimate govt.

LOL! I like that you are using my terms now (particularly, Big Bear). For anyone curious, Big Bear is an actual place in California, a small town famous for outdoors/lake activities, as well as winter sports in the winter. I thought the name would be a fitting representation for russia, which is typically represented by the bear.

On April 26 2014 03:52 radiatoren wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 26 2014 03:42 Roman666 wrote:
Polish media report that pro-Russia separatists kidnapped members of OSCE mission in Slavyansk.

7 members from OSCE has been missing since yesterday. 1 german translator, 3 germans, 1 dane, 1 swede, 1 chech and a pole with military expertice, were travelling in a bus with 5 ukrainian officers and a bus-driver. According to less reliable media the separatists claim that there were "forbidden bullet shells and other munitions" in the bus and they are checking the papers of the people in the bus.
according to RT

They are dealing with damned thugs with no discipline, rules, and standards (as opposed to an actual military unit). The situation is tragic, but this is expected. I hope these guys are released but I think the message should be understood that these guys do not want these observers near them.

On the bright side, the "military inspection team" must have confirmed what most people understand and landed a fat ostrich egg on Kerry's face. These insurgents aren't Russian military.
nunez
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Norway4003 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-26 00:14:00
April 25 2014 23:29 GMT
#9055
@radi

much obliged.

ofc you have a point, they didn't have the armed fellowship of the criminal russian hobbit nor did they get 6 apc's donated by the ukrainian military (now returned i think) and grenade launchers, but it was not clear (enough) to me that was distinction you were making.

the danish soldier also has an id-card with 'osce' and 'inspector' on it in the video posted... if their only affiliation with the osce was that they were travelling with them, why would he have that? and why no turk reported yet... hrm.

lol wrong rybak thank god.

@judi i stole it!
conspired against by a confederacy of dunces.
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-26 00:32:39
April 26 2014 00:28 GMT
#9056
On April 26 2014 08:29 nunez wrote:
@radi

much obliged.

ofc you have a point, they didn't have the armed fellowship of the criminal russian hobbit nor did they get 6 apc's donated by the ukrainian military (now returned i think) and grenade launchers, but it was not clear (enough) to me that was distinction you were making.

the danish soldier also has an id-card with 'osce' and 'inspector' on it in the video posted... if their only affiliation with the osce was that they were travelling with them, why would he have that? and why no turk reported yet... hrm.

lol wrong rybak thank god.

@judi i stole it!

As far as I can tell they are there on a Vienna Document 2011 which is the latest revised OSCE document on sharing of military information among the member countries. It is not the OSCE mission Russia approved, but it is a visit under OSCE insofar as it relates to the Vienna Document.

This specific mission seems to be about Ukraines military showing the observers some facilities in the country. I don't think there is anything odious to the mission at all, except that the timing is really bad and it was too optimistic to actually do that part of the tour.

The Turk-lead is far too vague to get anything out of except for some good old rumours and conspiracies.
Repeat before me
nunez
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Norway4003 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-26 00:44:41
April 26 2014 00:41 GMT
#9057
ye, i dunno, we'll see. the turkish insignia is odd, you gotta admit. reportedly no turks there. gonna make a throwaway on r/conspiracy and absorb upvotes.

odious weird word to use, i had to look it up. i think it's mildly suspicious and reckless, but hardly odious.
why were they inside slavyansk if not to observe the rebels? does that fall under vienna document? ito me it seemed more like i show mine, you show yours, but it might, i hope so at least.
conspired against by a confederacy of dunces.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-26 00:53:55
April 26 2014 00:53 GMT
#9058
On April 26 2014 07:07 Ghanburighan wrote:
Anyone want to translate a a literal fuckload?

Opening few paragraphs: a little discussion of statistical methods, nothing too meaningful. They did phone and in-person interviews with 3200 random people.


Poll rows: Southeast overall, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Lugansk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Kharkiv, Kherson (8 regions)
Poll columns: 1. Very Certain yes; 2. Somewhat certain yes; 3. Not sure; 4. Somewhat certain no; 5. Very certain no; 6. No answer

Questions that follow the format above:
1.1 Is the government under Alexander Turchynov legitimate?
1.2 Is the government under Arseniy Yatsenyuk legitimate?
1.3 Is the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) legitimate?
2. Is Yanukovych the rightful president of Ukraine?
4. Do you blame yourself for the four years of Yanukovych presidency? (Wtf kind of question is this?)
5. Do you agree that Yanukovych should have dissolved the Maidan protests by force?
8.1 Agree/Disagree: Right Sector is an illegitimate group (summarized)
8.2 Agree/Disagree: Right Sector is a terrorist group (summarized)
8.3 Agree/Disagree: Right Sector is a legitimate party only
8.4 Agree/Disagree: Right Sector is a myth
8.5 Agree/Disagree: Right Sector is Russian instigators
9. Will there be a Ukranian civil war?
10. Should Ukranian citizens have the right to purchase arms?
13.1 Do you support the separatists in your region?
14. Should Yanukovych stand trial?
15.1 Should government be run to attract big business?
17. Do you think Russia might invade?
18. Do you support Russian intervention in Ukraine?
20.2 Do you support Russian annexation?
27.1 Do you support Russian intervention in Crimea?
27.2 Was Crimea lost by Ukranian government incompetence?
27.3 Was Crimea annexation a West/Russia conspiracy?
30. Should regional governors be elected?

That's about all I have the patience for translating in full. If there's any poll question in particular you want clarification on, ask.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
itsjustatank
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Hong Kong9154 Posts
April 26 2014 01:19 GMT
#9059
On April 26 2014 09:53 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 26 2014 07:07 Ghanburighan wrote:
Anyone want to translate a a literal fuckload?

Opening few paragraphs: a little discussion of statistical methods, nothing too meaningful. They did phone and in-person interviews with 3200 random people.


The words "phone" and "in-person interviews" do not go with "random" in terms of statistical sampling, because they aren't random.
Photographer"nosotros estamos backamos" - setsuko
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-26 01:33:02
April 26 2014 01:30 GMT
#9060
On April 26 2014 10:19 itsjustatank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 26 2014 09:53 LegalLord wrote:
On April 26 2014 07:07 Ghanburighan wrote:
Anyone want to translate a a literal fuckload?

Opening few paragraphs: a little discussion of statistical methods, nothing too meaningful. They did phone and in-person interviews with 3200 random people.


The words "phone" and "in-person interviews" do not go with "random" in terms of statistical sampling, because they aren't random.


How is phonesampling not random?

I didn't follow this particular instance now, but in general, it pretty much is. Same with in-person interviews. They're not anonymous, but they can be random for sure.
On track to MA1950A.
Prev 1 451 452 453 454 455 577 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 11h 1m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
PiGStarcraft344
Nathanias 112
UpATreeSC 98
CosmosSc2 53
StarCraft: Brood War
Artosis 801
Shuttle 708
ggaemo 129
NaDa 46
Dota 2
monkeys_forever519
NeuroSwarm86
Super Smash Bros
hungrybox125
Mew2King52
Other Games
tarik_tv20884
gofns12720
summit1g7564
Day[9].tv821
shahzam382
C9.Mang0372
Sick103
Trikslyr49
Organizations
Other Games
BasetradeTV30
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 17 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• musti20045 40
• davetesta34
• OhrlRock 2
• Kozan
• Migwel
• sooper7s
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
StarCraft: Brood War
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• masondota22233
League of Legends
• Doublelift5258
Other Games
• imaqtpie826
• Day9tv821
Upcoming Events
LiuLi Cup
11h 1m
BSL Team Wars
19h 1m
Team Hawk vs Team Dewalt
Korean StarCraft League
1d 3h
CranKy Ducklings
1d 10h
SC Evo League
1d 12h
WardiTV Summer Champion…
1d 13h
Classic vs Percival
Spirit vs NightMare
CSO Cup
1d 16h
[BSL 2025] Weekly
1d 18h
Sparkling Tuna Cup
2 days
SC Evo League
2 days
[ Show More ]
BSL Team Wars
2 days
Team Bonyth vs Team Sziky
Replay Cast
3 days
Afreeca Starleague
3 days
Queen vs HyuN
EffOrt vs Calm
Wardi Open
3 days
RotterdaM Event
3 days
Replay Cast
4 days
Afreeca Starleague
4 days
Rush vs TBD
Jaedong vs Mong
Afreeca Starleague
5 days
herO vs TBD
Royal vs Barracks
Replay Cast
6 days
The PondCast
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Jiahua Invitational
uThermal 2v2 Main Event
HCC Europe

Ongoing

Copa Latinoamericana 4
BSL 20 Team Wars
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 3
BSL 21 Qualifiers
ASL Season 20
CSL Season 18: Qualifier 1
SEL Season 2 Championship
WardiTV Summer 2025
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1
BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025

Upcoming

CSLAN 3
CSL Season 18: Qualifier 2
CSL 2025 AUTUMN (S18)
LASL Season 20
BSL Season 21
BSL 21 Team A
Chzzk MurlocKing SC1 vs SC2 Cup #2
RSL Revival: Season 2
Maestros of the Game
EC S1
Sisters' Call Cup
IEM Chengdu 2025
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
MESA Nomadic Masters Fall
Thunderpick World Champ.
CS Asia Championships 2025
Roobet Cup 2025
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.