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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
8982 Posts
August 08 2017 21:00 GMT
#166601
On August 09 2017 05:56 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm curious what people would do in this situation. If you had the red button to push:

Poll: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

Strike (9)
 
50%

Do not strike (9)
 
50%

18 total votes

Your vote: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

(Vote): Strike
(Vote): Do not strike




Preemptive strike. If we're at the point where hot nuclear war is all but a foregone conclusion there is little else we could do. Better be ready to lose a couple cities too.

Major cities would be evacuated and the Midwest population will grow. This is the start of Mega City One.
Sadist
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States7225 Posts
August 08 2017 21:00 GMT
#166602
On August 09 2017 05:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 05:56 LegalLord wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm curious what people would do in this situation. If you had the red button to push:

Poll: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

Strike (9)
 
50%

Do not strike (9)
 
50%

18 total votes

Your vote: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

(Vote): Strike
(Vote): Do not strike




Preemptive strike. If we're at the point where hot nuclear war is all but a foregone conclusion there is little else we could do. Better be ready to lose a couple cities too.


If it's North Korea? You pick up the phone and call Russia, and China and tell them to deal with NK or the USA will. Good chance that Beijing send troops to topple him in a few hours.



If NK has nukes they can hit China or Russia too. No one is invading them unless theres already a coup in place.
How do you go from where you are to where you want to be? I think you have to have an enthusiasm for life. You have to have a dream, a goal and you have to be willing to work for it. Jim Valvano
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 21:02:01
August 08 2017 21:00 GMT
#166603
From all the articles about potential conflicts I have read about most seem to suggest that NK has sufficient artillery and conventional capability to pretty much trash Seoul no matter what. Which is a huge fucking problem and I'm not sure the US would risk this. If NK gets sufficient bargaining chips I'm not sure that the US would go to war.
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 21:05:33
August 08 2017 21:03 GMT
#166604
On August 09 2017 05:55 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 05:53 mozoku wrote:
I'm not so sure. I'm usually pretty hawkish on FP issues, but I'm starting think we're not doing anything except wasting political capital on the NK issue. He isn't giving up nukes without military intervention, and that can't happen without horrible consequences. Current sanctions are reasonable, but China won't allow sanctions to be strong enough to cause a rebellion in NK, and NK is going to prioritize nuclear weapons before anything else. So sanctions are never going to achieve the intended effect. They should still be in place for symbolic/signalling reasons, but wasting political capital in coercing other countries to join the sanctions would not be in US interests imo. I don't know what the latest round of sanctions cost the US in terms of political capital, if any.

At this point, it may be best to just let MAD take over. Kim Jong Un hasn't acted totally irrationally; he's never done anything crazy enough to threaten his rule over NK. A nuclear strike on the US or an ally would almost certainly end his life.

I would probably slap some sanctions on China for allowing it's satellite state ruled by a potentially insane dictator to threaten the US and its peaceful allies with a nuclear strike though.

What if he starts selling warheads while we all chill and hope for peace? Or just attacks for literally no reason?

Are you willing to sacrifice Seoul based on the unknown probability that he sells nukes or launches a nuclear warhead for no reason? I'm not sure that I am. It depends on what those probabilities are. I think they're fairly low, which is why I take the position I do. Unfortunately it's highly uncertain estimation though, so I don't have a strong position either way. I don't wholly disagree with you.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
August 08 2017 21:03 GMT
#166605
On August 09 2017 06:00 Nyxisto wrote:
From all the articles about potential conflicts I have read about most seem to suggest that NK has sufficient artillery and conventional capability to pretty much trash Seoul no matter what. Which is a huge fucking problem and I'm not sure the US would risk this. If NK gets sufficient bargaining chips I'm not sure that the US would go to war.

Well I guess we just have to wait until the stakes are high enough such that Seoul would be considered "acceptable losses."
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13924 Posts
August 08 2017 21:05 GMT
#166606
On August 09 2017 06:00 Nyxisto wrote:
From all the articles about potential conflicts I have read about most seem to suggest that NK has sufficient artillery and conventional capability to pretty much trash Seoul no matter what. Which is a huge fucking problem and I'm not sure the US would risk this. If NK gets sufficient bargaining chips I'm not sure that the US would go to war.

What difference is there in the world if NK gets SK or if NK stays the way it is? the US would have no motivation to not go to war with NK if NK was willing to bluff their way into a war. if NK ever started seriously threatening war china would pull the rug out from under them. At the very least the US would give China the SCS before giveing up SK. Theres no way for NK to better itself so the best they can hope for is to sit on their lonesome and keep existing.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
August 08 2017 21:09 GMT
#166607
All diplomatic efforts should be aimed at China trying to get them to stop supporting North Korea. The only thing I can think of is a treaty guaranteeing the US pulls out of Korea completely if the North Korean regime is removed and the country reunited. As it seems to me China's main worry is having the US military on its land border.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
August 08 2017 21:10 GMT
#166608
If the US is willing to throw Seoul onto the pyre long term trust in Asia will be gone. Everyone will immediately now that the US will ignore their safety concerts and that'll probably lead to even more war. I don't think the US would consider this acceptable honestly.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 21:14:42
August 08 2017 21:13 GMT
#166609
Well..

Either way, diplomacy with NK has to change now if they actually do have warheads. The notion of Plansix that terrorists could get nukes through NK isn't a construct, it's literally something that a NK foreign minister said. Which means that is what Kim said.

So sanctions kind of are out of the window, you can't punish them with sanctions because while you might get the revolution you're aiming for (but even that i heavily doubt), you have now the threat of 60 small nukes (if true) being sold to whoever has the monies to pay for it, as long as they pledge to try and get them to the US somehow.

Problem being: as i already said, we tried the diplomacy route, and it lead to NK (possibly) having nukes now.
On track to MA1950A.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18825 Posts
August 08 2017 21:14 GMT
#166610
I'm pretty sure even numbskulls like Rex Tillerson understand that Seoul's safety is the beginning and end of every interaction with NK, but with Trump's clumsy use of annihilation language today, who can say.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 08 2017 21:14 GMT
#166611
On August 09 2017 06:00 Sadist wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 05:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:56 LegalLord wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm curious what people would do in this situation. If you had the red button to push:

Poll: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

Strike (9)
 
50%

Do not strike (9)
 
50%

18 total votes

Your vote: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

(Vote): Strike
(Vote): Do not strike




Preemptive strike. If we're at the point where hot nuclear war is all but a foregone conclusion there is little else we could do. Better be ready to lose a couple cities too.


If it's North Korea? You pick up the phone and call Russia, and China and tell them to deal with NK or the USA will. Good chance that Beijing send troops to topple him in a few hours.



If NK has nukes they can hit China or Russia too. No one is invading them unless theres already a coup in place.


Seeing how North Korea gets entire energy needs from China, and majority of it's Food as well that would never happen. Without China North Koreans don't even move to the outside world. Official or not.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
August 08 2017 21:14 GMT
#166612
On August 09 2017 06:10 Nyxisto wrote:
If the US is willing to throw Seoul onto the pyre long term trust in Asia will be gone. Everyone will immediately now that the US will ignore their safety concerts and that'll probably lead to even more war. I don't think the US would consider this acceptable honestly.

Yup, the diplomatic situation surrounding any possible NK solution is nothing but trouble.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 21:17:19
August 08 2017 21:16 GMT
#166613
On August 09 2017 06:14 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 06:00 Sadist wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:56 LegalLord wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm curious what people would do in this situation. If you had the red button to push:

Poll: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

Strike (9)
 
50%

Do not strike (9)
 
50%

18 total votes

Your vote: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

(Vote): Strike
(Vote): Do not strike




Preemptive strike. If we're at the point where hot nuclear war is all but a foregone conclusion there is little else we could do. Better be ready to lose a couple cities too.


If it's North Korea? You pick up the phone and call Russia, and China and tell them to deal with NK or the USA will. Good chance that Beijing send troops to topple him in a few hours.



If NK has nukes they can hit China or Russia too. No one is invading them unless theres already a coup in place.


Seeing how North Korea gets entire energy needs from China, and majority of it's Food as well that would never happen. Without China North Koreans don't even move to the outside world. Official or not.


Leaves one with the problem of forcing China to do something. You kinda can't really blame them for not doing it, it's not like the US or any state really would rush to the rescue of "the opposition".

edit: not saying it's good/smart, just saying in realpolitics, it's just a normal decision to lean back and let you deal with it
On track to MA1950A.
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 21:17:14
August 08 2017 21:16 GMT
#166614
On August 09 2017 06:09 Zaros wrote:
All diplomatic efforts should be aimed at China trying to get them to stop supporting North Korea. The only thing I can think of is a treaty guaranteeing the US pulls out of Korea completely if the North Korean regime is removed and the country reunited. As it seems to me China's main worry is having the US military on its land border.

Under what government is Korea united under? South? Does China even have the power to achieve that? Their only play is to vigorously stop trading with NK, and hope a revolution happens. And it's risky for them at this point too, as NK is a nuclear state run by a potentially unstable leader who is prone to mass violence.

China should have cut off trade with NK years ago, and it would have prevented this mess. At this point though, it's sort of beyond their control.

Even assuming feasibility, I don't think China would willingly accept a US-friendly democracy on its border. Even with a no-military treaty.
Sadist
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States7225 Posts
August 08 2017 21:17 GMT
#166615
On August 09 2017 06:14 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 06:00 Sadist wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:56 LegalLord wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm curious what people would do in this situation. If you had the red button to push:

Poll: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

Strike (9)
 
50%

Do not strike (9)
 
50%

18 total votes

Your vote: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

(Vote): Strike
(Vote): Do not strike




Preemptive strike. If we're at the point where hot nuclear war is all but a foregone conclusion there is little else we could do. Better be ready to lose a couple cities too.


If it's North Korea? You pick up the phone and call Russia, and China and tell them to deal with NK or the USA will. Good chance that Beijing send troops to topple him in a few hours.



If NK has nukes they can hit China or Russia too. No one is invading them unless theres already a coup in place.


Seeing how North Korea gets entire energy needs from China, and majority of it's Food as well that would never happen. Without China North Koreans don't even move to the outside world. Official or not.



If they nuke anyone its suicide anyway. You dont think the dear leader wouldnt nuke china if they invaded to overthrow his government?
How do you go from where you are to where you want to be? I think you have to have an enthusiasm for life. You have to have a dream, a goal and you have to be willing to work for it. Jim Valvano
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42649 Posts
August 08 2017 21:18 GMT
#166616
On August 09 2017 04:48 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So hes threating to nuke a country...


In case anyone has forgotten, NK has a cast iron mutual defence treaty with PRC. You can't simply strike at NK alone, it'd have to be part of a first strike attempt against China.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 21:21:43
August 08 2017 21:20 GMT
#166617
On August 09 2017 06:18 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 04:48 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So hes threating to nuke a country...

https://twitter.com/AP/status/895003246372294657

In case anyone has forgotten, NK has a cast iron mutual defence treaty with PRC. You can't simply strike at NK alone, it'd have to be part of a first strike attempt against China.


.. really?

Shamefully, i actually didn't know. I thought there was some ties, but i wouldn't have thought that it actually is a proper mutual defence treaty.

edit:

For anyone as dumb as me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-North_Korean_Mutual_Aid_and_Cooperation_Friendship_Treaty
On track to MA1950A.
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
August 08 2017 21:21 GMT
#166618
On August 09 2017 06:18 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 04:48 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So hes threating to nuke a country...

https://twitter.com/AP/status/895003246372294657

In case anyone has forgotten, NK has a cast iron mutual defence treaty with PRC. You can't simply strike at NK alone, it'd have to be part of a first strike attempt against China.

Don't think it's so much a matter of having forgotten as Trump having never known it in the first place.
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 21:27:19
August 08 2017 21:22 GMT
#166619
On August 09 2017 06:18 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 04:48 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So hes threating to nuke a country...

https://twitter.com/AP/status/895003246372294657

In case anyone has forgotten, NK has a cast iron mutual defence treaty with PRC. You can't simply strike at NK alone, it'd have to be part of a first strike attempt against China.

Uhhh, that doesn't mean China necessarily enforces it though. My understanding of expert opinion is that they're divided on whether China would actually intervene in a US invasion of NK.

I'm of the opinion that China values its economy much more than it does NK, and probably wouldn't intervene. Like a lot of things in the NK issue though, it's highly uncertain

In addition, there's no scenario under which the US takes preemptive military action against NK without talking to China first, so the treaty is somewhat a moot point. If the military isn't preemptive, then the US won't care what China thinks anyway.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
August 08 2017 21:23 GMT
#166620
China is the only reason we didn’t end the Korean war with both north and south Korea. They do not want a US friendly Korea on their boarder.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
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