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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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ZerOCoolSC2
8982 Posts
On August 09 2017 05:56 LegalLord wrote: Preemptive strike. If we're at the point where hot nuclear war is all but a foregone conclusion there is little else we could do. Better be ready to lose a couple cities too. Major cities would be evacuated and the Midwest population will grow. This is the start of Mega City One. | ||
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Sadist
United States7227 Posts
On August 09 2017 05:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: If it's North Korea? You pick up the phone and call Russia, and China and tell them to deal with NK or the USA will. Good chance that Beijing send troops to topple him in a few hours. If NK has nukes they can hit China or Russia too. No one is invading them unless theres already a coup in place. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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mozoku
United States708 Posts
On August 09 2017 05:55 Plansix wrote: What if he starts selling warheads while we all chill and hope for peace? Or just attacks for literally no reason? Are you willing to sacrifice Seoul based on the unknown probability that he sells nukes or launches a nuclear warhead for no reason? I'm not sure that I am. It depends on what those probabilities are. I think they're fairly low, which is why I take the position I do. Unfortunately it's highly uncertain estimation though, so I don't have a strong position either way. I don't wholly disagree with you. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On August 09 2017 06:00 Nyxisto wrote: From all the articles about potential conflicts I have read about most seem to suggest that NK has sufficient artillery and conventional capability to pretty much trash Seoul no matter what. Which is a huge fucking problem and I'm not sure the US would risk this. If NK gets sufficient bargaining chips I'm not sure that the US would go to war. Well I guess we just have to wait until the stakes are high enough such that Seoul would be considered "acceptable losses." | ||
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Sermokala
United States13925 Posts
On August 09 2017 06:00 Nyxisto wrote: From all the articles about potential conflicts I have read about most seem to suggest that NK has sufficient artillery and conventional capability to pretty much trash Seoul no matter what. Which is a huge fucking problem and I'm not sure the US would risk this. If NK gets sufficient bargaining chips I'm not sure that the US would go to war. What difference is there in the world if NK gets SK or if NK stays the way it is? the US would have no motivation to not go to war with NK if NK was willing to bluff their way into a war. if NK ever started seriously threatening war china would pull the rug out from under them. At the very least the US would give China the SCS before giveing up SK. Theres no way for NK to better itself so the best they can hope for is to sit on their lonesome and keep existing. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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m4ini
4215 Posts
Either way, diplomacy with NK has to change now if they actually do have warheads. The notion of Plansix that terrorists could get nukes through NK isn't a construct, it's literally something that a NK foreign minister said. Which means that is what Kim said. So sanctions kind of are out of the window, you can't punish them with sanctions because while you might get the revolution you're aiming for (but even that i heavily doubt), you have now the threat of 60 small nukes (if true) being sold to whoever has the monies to pay for it, as long as they pledge to try and get them to the US somehow. Problem being: as i already said, we tried the diplomacy route, and it lead to NK (possibly) having nukes now. | ||
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farvacola
United States18826 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
On August 09 2017 06:00 Sadist wrote: If NK has nukes they can hit China or Russia too. No one is invading them unless theres already a coup in place. Seeing how North Korea gets entire energy needs from China, and majority of it's Food as well that would never happen. Without China North Koreans don't even move to the outside world. Official or not. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On August 09 2017 06:10 Nyxisto wrote: If the US is willing to throw Seoul onto the pyre long term trust in Asia will be gone. Everyone will immediately now that the US will ignore their safety concerts and that'll probably lead to even more war. I don't think the US would consider this acceptable honestly. Yup, the diplomatic situation surrounding any possible NK solution is nothing but trouble. | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On August 09 2017 06:14 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Seeing how North Korea gets entire energy needs from China, and majority of it's Food as well that would never happen. Without China North Koreans don't even move to the outside world. Official or not. Leaves one with the problem of forcing China to do something. You kinda can't really blame them for not doing it, it's not like the US or any state really would rush to the rescue of "the opposition". edit: not saying it's good/smart, just saying in realpolitics, it's just a normal decision to lean back and let you deal with it | ||
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mozoku
United States708 Posts
On August 09 2017 06:09 Zaros wrote: All diplomatic efforts should be aimed at China trying to get them to stop supporting North Korea. The only thing I can think of is a treaty guaranteeing the US pulls out of Korea completely if the North Korean regime is removed and the country reunited. As it seems to me China's main worry is having the US military on its land border. Under what government is Korea united under? South? Does China even have the power to achieve that? Their only play is to vigorously stop trading with NK, and hope a revolution happens. And it's risky for them at this point too, as NK is a nuclear state run by a potentially unstable leader who is prone to mass violence. China should have cut off trade with NK years ago, and it would have prevented this mess. At this point though, it's sort of beyond their control. Even assuming feasibility, I don't think China would willingly accept a US-friendly democracy on its border. Even with a no-military treaty. | ||
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Sadist
United States7227 Posts
On August 09 2017 06:14 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Seeing how North Korea gets entire energy needs from China, and majority of it's Food as well that would never happen. Without China North Koreans don't even move to the outside world. Official or not. If they nuke anyone its suicide anyway. You dont think the dear leader wouldnt nuke china if they invaded to overthrow his government? | ||
KwarK
United States42654 Posts
On August 09 2017 04:48 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So hes threating to nuke a country... In case anyone has forgotten, NK has a cast iron mutual defence treaty with PRC. You can't simply strike at NK alone, it'd have to be part of a first strike attempt against China. | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On August 09 2017 06:18 KwarK wrote: In case anyone has forgotten, NK has a cast iron mutual defence treaty with PRC. You can't simply strike at NK alone, it'd have to be part of a first strike attempt against China. .. really? Shamefully, i actually didn't know. I thought there was some ties, but i wouldn't have thought that it actually is a proper mutual defence treaty. edit: For anyone as dumb as me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-North_Korean_Mutual_Aid_and_Cooperation_Friendship_Treaty | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On August 09 2017 06:18 KwarK wrote: In case anyone has forgotten, NK has a cast iron mutual defence treaty with PRC. You can't simply strike at NK alone, it'd have to be part of a first strike attempt against China. Don't think it's so much a matter of having forgotten as Trump having never known it in the first place. | ||
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mozoku
United States708 Posts
On August 09 2017 06:18 KwarK wrote: In case anyone has forgotten, NK has a cast iron mutual defence treaty with PRC. You can't simply strike at NK alone, it'd have to be part of a first strike attempt against China. Uhhh, that doesn't mean China necessarily enforces it though. My understanding of expert opinion is that they're divided on whether China would actually intervene in a US invasion of NK. I'm of the opinion that China values its economy much more than it does NK, and probably wouldn't intervene. Like a lot of things in the NK issue though, it's highly uncertain In addition, there's no scenario under which the US takes preemptive military action against NK without talking to China first, so the treaty is somewhat a moot point. If the military isn't preemptive, then the US won't care what China thinks anyway. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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