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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
August 08 2017 20:46 GMT
#166581
Sidenote, here's the chronology, because i feel like people seem to have forgotten that we already tried "careful diplomacy".

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron

On track to MA1950A.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23209 Posts
August 08 2017 20:47 GMT
#166582
On August 09 2017 05:43 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Tom Price speaking on the Opiate Crisis... A vaccine for addiction, what?


Something else they can inject you with and give you "boosters"

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2878137/


Not that anyone wants to even begin to consider what would happen to the economies (and naturally following the societies) dependent on our drug dependencies.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
August 08 2017 20:47 GMT
#166583
On August 09 2017 05:38 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 05:33 zlefin wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:29 m4ini wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:23 zlefin wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:15 m4ini wrote:
The iron dome in Israel, at least from what i can tell, works decent though. Maybe not good enough to call it "impossible to penetrate", but certainly good enough to make you feel better.

But as Zero rightfully stated, whatchu gonna do if they come for Japan. Big ally with quite a few US military installations that are likely to get hit/interfered with too. You just gonna watch, or stand up?

Because, and here's the thing, even though it's my personal opinion: a conflict with NK is inevitable. As in, impossible to prevent. As much as it is impossible to argue with ISIS, it is impossible to argue with a culture that takes the word of their leader (regardless of how retarded it is) over anything factual, even if it's impossible.

edit: not saying "right now", but generally. There will be an armed conflict. I'm absolutely convinced of that.

while it may well happen; it's not necessary for there to be a conflict; the conclusion "will" seems unjustified.
I see nothing that forces the conflict to occur openly, rather than staying at a simmering state of unease.

arguing with the culture doesn't matter, what matters is whether the leadership is willing to use nukes offensively; and since any offensive use would end up weakening them, they're unlikely to do so unless they have nothing to lose.


Arguing with the culture doesn't matter? It doesn't matter what "the leadership" wants to do. There's one leader. A single one. A single leader who made it very clear what the condition of his mind is.

And who would blame him, he grew up with people literally licking the dirt he walked on.

The one thing people seem to forget when they complain about how dangerous trump is: trump is a (very) washed down version of Kim. So if you give it to trump to do something stupid with nukes while at the same time argue "well NK wouldn't maybe", you're an idiot.


if there's one leader, then you've PROVEN my point, not weakened it. If all that matters is the leader, then it doesn't matter what the culture says, you don't need to argue with the culture.
Yes, there's a chance he'll do something stupid; but that's a chance, not a certainty. i'm arguing on very specific points, objecting to certain claims you made.


.. eh? Don't act dense.

Why is there only one leader? Why is there not even the desire for opposition?

Because of the godlike status the dear leader has in NK. What do you think is going to happen in the US if trump just randomly starts throwing nukes? Now ask yourself the same question what would happen in NK, and there's your answer. It really isn't that hard.

i'm not being dense; you are, you're ignoring the points i've made. stop strawmanning.
You claimed that 1) part of the problem is that you can't argue with their culture.
I've proven, and yu've admitted, that that's not relevant, it doens't matter what their culture says, it only matters what their leader says.
as such the inability of arguing iwth their culture is irrelevant, as you only have to argue with the leader. the way you phrased the initial statement to which I objected you were clearly talking about people OTHER than the leader himself.
You also claimed 2) war was inevitable
you'e failed to substantiate that at all, and i've pointed out problems with it. There's a big difference between might happen, and definitely will happen.
everthing else is you being dense and responding to points OTHER than the points I made.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 20:48:24
August 08 2017 20:47 GMT
#166584
Also why Kellyanne Conway speaking during a press briefing about a Health Crisis?
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
August 08 2017 20:47 GMT
#166585
At this point I honestly don't know if it's too late to force NK to give up its nukes. It very well might be. And we're not in a position where diplomacy is as effective as we would like.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
August 08 2017 20:48 GMT
#166586
It should also be noted that 7 years ago NK sunk a SK navy ship with a sub for literally zero reasons. And they shelled a SK island recently. They are prone to lashing out and we shouldn’t except them to be any different with nukes.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Sadist
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States7220 Posts
August 08 2017 20:50 GMT
#166587
On August 09 2017 05:48 Plansix wrote:
It should also be noted that 7 years ago NK sunk a SK navy ship with a sub for literally zero reasons. And they shelled a SK island recently. They are prone to lashing out and we shouldn’t except them to be any different with nukes.




NK will cease to exist as a country within hours if they nuke anyone.
How do you go from where you are to where you want to be? I think you have to have an enthusiasm for life. You have to have a dream, a goal and you have to be willing to work for it. Jim Valvano
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23209 Posts
August 08 2017 20:50 GMT
#166588
On August 09 2017 05:47 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Also why Kellyanne Conway speaking during a press briefing about a Health Crisis?


The rate of heroin use among white adults increased by 114% between 2004 and 2013, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The rate among nonwhite adults remained relatively unchanged during that same period.


Source
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15677 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 20:52:07
August 08 2017 20:51 GMT
#166589
I'm curious what people would do in this situation. If you had the red button to push:

Poll: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

Strike (9)
 
50%

Do not strike (9)
 
50%

18 total votes

Your vote: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

(Vote): Strike
(Vote): Do not strike



FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
Netherlands30548 Posts
August 08 2017 20:53 GMT
#166590
Not! Even! Close!

Neosteel Enthusiast
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
August 08 2017 20:53 GMT
#166591
I'm not so sure. I'm usually pretty hawkish on FP issues, but I'm starting think we're not doing anything except wasting political capital on the NK issue. He isn't giving up nukes without military intervention, and that can't happen without horrible consequences. Current sanctions are reasonable, but China won't allow sanctions to be strong enough to cause a rebellion in NK, and NK is going to prioritize nuclear weapons before anything else. So sanctions are never going to achieve the intended effect. They should still be in place for symbolic/signalling reasons, but wasting political capital in coercing other countries to join the sanctions would not be in US interests imo. I don't know what the latest round of sanctions cost the US in terms of political capital, if any.

At this point, it may be best to just let MAD take over. Kim Jong Un hasn't acted totally irrationally; he's never done anything crazy enough to threaten his rule over NK. A nuclear strike on the US or an ally would almost certainly end his life.

I would probably slap some sanctions on China for allowing it's satellite state ruled by a potentially insane dictator to threaten the US and its peaceful allies with a nuclear strike though.
Sadist
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States7220 Posts
August 08 2017 20:54 GMT
#166592
You strike with subs if they nuke anyone with 100% international backing. If you pre emptive strike you risk an international shitshow. You have to preseve MAD at all costs
How do you go from where you are to where you want to be? I think you have to have an enthusiasm for life. You have to have a dream, a goal and you have to be willing to work for it. Jim Valvano
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
August 08 2017 20:54 GMT
#166593
On August 09 2017 05:50 Sadist wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 05:48 Plansix wrote:
It should also be noted that 7 years ago NK sunk a SK navy ship with a sub for literally zero reasons. And they shelled a SK island recently. They are prone to lashing out and we shouldn’t except them to be any different with nukes.




NK will cease to exist as a country within hours if they nuke anyone.

Yep and the entire Asian economy will implode and god knows what else will happen. But that might not be enough for NK. They are deeply delusional.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 08 2017 20:54 GMT
#166594
Possible reason why he said something about North Korea...

WASHINGTON – President Trump has publicly called the widening federal investigation into Russia's election meddling a "witch hunt." But through his lawyer, Trump has sent private messages of "appreciation" to special counsel Robert Mueller.

"He appreciates what Bob Mueller is doing,'' Trump's chief counsel John Dowd told USA TODAY in an interview Tuesday. "He asked me to share that with him and that's what I've done.''

Trump's legal team has been in contact with Mueller's office, and Dowd says he has passed along the president's messages expressing “appreciation and greetings’’ to the special counsel.

“The president has sent messages back and forth,’’ Dowd said, declining to elaborate further.

Trump has come under fire for his prior contacts with former FBI Director James Comey, whom he abruptly fired in May because of his handling of the Russia matter. In a break with longstanding precedent to avoid even the appearance of influencing the nonpolitical law enforcement agency's investigations, Trump spoke privately with Comey on several occasions.

In those conversations, Comey said, Trump tried to convince him to drop parts of the Russia investigation and asked for a pledge of loyalty – accounts that not only led to the appointment of a special counsel, but also an expansion of the probe to include possible obstruction of justice.

Dowd has said all communications with Mueller have been proper.

“We get along well with Bob Mueller; our communications have been constructive,’’ the attorney said. “But it is important that our communications remain confidential. It’s important that there not be any breakdown in that trust.’’

For weeks, Washington political circles have been on high alert for the possibility the president could try to get rid of Mueller or otherwise wrest control of the Russia probe he denounces as a "hoax."

Yet in a sign that forcing out the former FBI director overseeing the federal Russia investigation is politically untenable, a growing number of government officials have moved to tamp down any talk of ousting Mueller – including, apparently Trump himself.

“That’s never been on the table, never,’’ Dowd said of the possibility Trump might try to remove the special counsel. “It’s a manifestation of the media. My dealings with Bob Mueller have always been cordial, respectful — the way it should be."

Trump and his aides have been highly critical of Mueller and his widening investigation into possible collusion between associates and Russians who sought to influence the presidential election. Trump says Mueller's job is unnecessary because he hasn't done anything wrong, and has accused the former FBI director of having unspecified conflicts of interest.

Lawmakers, including Republicans, started sounding the alarm about Mueller after days of concerted attacks on Attorney General Jeff Sessions. The unusual public criticism of a cabinet official who was one of Trump's earliest supporters – months after his recusal from the Russia investigation – raised questions about whether the president was trying to get Sessions to quit or would fire him.

Trump cannot fire Mueller directly, but he can fire Sessions. And a new, more pliable attorney general – without conflicts in the Russia investigation – could oust the special counsel.

Yet the two men appear to be at a stalemate: Sessions has has refused to resign in the face of attacks by Trump, and so far, Trump has not moved to fire Sessions.

And senators from both parties have since introduced legislation that would make it harder for the president to dismiss Mueller. A pair of pending proposals would require judges to to review any presidential firing, and force the president to provide specific legal reasons for taking such action.

What's more, with the public now aware that Mueller has tapped a grand jury for his inquiry into possible collusion between Trump associates and Russians who sought to influence the election, getting rid of the top prosecutor seems like a near impossibility.

One Republican senator, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, said late last month any move against Mueller could be "the beginning of the end of the Trump presidency."

Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican who is sponsoring one of the proposals designed to protect a special counsel, said that "a back-end judicial review process to prevent unmerited removals of special counsels not only helps to ensure their investigatory independence, but also reaffirms our nation’s system of checks and balances.”

A recent poll of battleground districts indicated that firing Mueller would be unpopular with voters as well.

Mueller is supervising a long-running inquiry that focuses on Russian efforts to influence the 2016 election through fake news and hacking political organizations and Democrats close to nominee Hillary Clinton.

The wide-ranging inquiry now includes a June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower where the president’s eldest son, Donald Jr., hosted a Kremlin-linked attorney whom he believed had damaging information on Clinton.

Trump Jr. was told that that information would be provided by the Russian government. Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and then-campaign chairman Paul Manafort also attended the meeting.

Trump Jr. and the Russian attorney both said no actual information about Clinton was provided at the meeting. The special counsel’s team also is reviewing financial transactions involving campaign officials.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 20:55:45
August 08 2017 20:55 GMT
#166595
On August 09 2017 05:53 mozoku wrote:
I'm not so sure. I'm usually pretty hawkish on FP issues, but I'm starting think we're not doing anything except wasting political capital on the NK issue. He isn't giving up nukes without military intervention, and that can't happen without horrible consequences. Current sanctions are reasonable, but China won't allow sanctions to be strong enough to cause a rebellion in NK, and NK is going to prioritize nuclear weapons before anything else. So sanctions are never going to achieve the intended effect. They should still be in place for symbolic/signalling reasons, but wasting political capital in coercing other countries to join the sanctions would not be in US interests imo. I don't know what the latest round of sanctions cost the US in terms of political capital, if any.

At this point, it may be best to just let MAD take over. Kim Jong Un hasn't acted totally irrationally; he's never done anything crazy enough to threaten his rule over NK. A nuclear strike on the US or an ally would almost certainly end his life.

I would probably slap some sanctions on China for allowing it's satellite state ruled by a potentially insane dictator to threaten the US and its peaceful allies with a nuclear strike though.

What if he starts selling warheads while we all chill and hope for peace? Or just attacks for literally no reason?
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
August 08 2017 20:56 GMT
#166596
On August 09 2017 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm curious what people would do in this situation. If you had the red button to push:

Poll: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

Strike (9)
 
50%

Do not strike (9)
 
50%

18 total votes

Your vote: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

(Vote): Strike
(Vote): Do not strike




Preemptive strike. If we're at the point where hot nuclear war is all but a foregone conclusion there is little else we could do. Better be ready to lose a couple cities too.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23209 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 20:58:24
August 08 2017 20:57 GMT
#166597
On August 09 2017 05:54 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 05:50 Sadist wrote:
On August 09 2017 05:48 Plansix wrote:
It should also be noted that 7 years ago NK sunk a SK navy ship with a sub for literally zero reasons. And they shelled a SK island recently. They are prone to lashing out and we shouldn’t except them to be any different with nukes.




NK will cease to exist as a country within hours if they nuke anyone.

Yep and the entire Asian economy will implode and god knows what else will happen. But that might not be enough for NK. They are deeply delusional.


Are they really? I'm curious what a more rational NK would actually look like? I have a feeling it looks more like a defenseless client state of the US if nothing else.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States44258 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 20:59:31
August 08 2017 20:58 GMT
#166598
On August 09 2017 04:48 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So hes threating to nuke a country...





I love how rehearsed this is... when he looks down at his notes to read "fire and fury" for the second time. How can anyone take this idiot seriously?

I can just imagine the first ten or so takes of this...

"They will be met with terrific and tremendo-"
"No sir, just read off the script."
"Oh okay. The fire is bigly-"
"Mr. President, please."
"Okay fine, but what is so fiery and furry about North IKEA?"
Even his arms folded make it look like he's used to being straight-jacketed by his staff.

"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 08 2017 20:58 GMT
#166599
On August 09 2017 05:56 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm curious what people would do in this situation. If you had the red button to push:

Poll: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

Strike (9)
 
50%

Do not strike (9)
 
50%

18 total votes

Your vote: Military tells you 80% chance of NK Nuke strike within 10 days

(Vote): Strike
(Vote): Do not strike




Preemptive strike. If we're at the point where hot nuclear war is all but a foregone conclusion there is little else we could do. Better be ready to lose a couple cities too.


If it's North Korea? You pick up the phone and call Russia, and China and tell them to deal with NK or the USA will. Good chance that Beijing send troops to topple him in a few hours.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
August 08 2017 21:00 GMT
#166600
On August 09 2017 05:54 Sadist wrote:
You strike with subs if they nuke anyone with 100% international backing. If you pre emptive strike you risk an international shitshow. You have to preseve MAD at all costs

You don't think an 80% chance of LA getting nuked is worth an international shitshow? I certainly do.
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