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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Karis Vas Ryaar
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States4396 Posts
August 08 2017 19:48 GMT
#166541


"I'm not agreeing with a lot of Virus's decisions but they are working" Tasteless. Ipl4 Losers Bracket Virus 2-1 Maru
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 08 2017 19:48 GMT
#166542
So hes threating to nuke a country...

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
August 08 2017 19:49 GMT
#166543
On August 09 2017 04:26 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 04:22 LegalLord wrote:
On August 09 2017 04:20 Simberto wrote:
On August 09 2017 04:14 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
On August 09 2017 04:10 LegalLord wrote:
On August 09 2017 04:03 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
On August 09 2017 03:57 Mohdoo wrote:
On August 09 2017 02:55 Plansix wrote:
We are not in the 1960-1980 era of US cities where they were all in massive recessions due to white flight. Plagued by urban blight and high crime. Most US cities have pockets of economically depressed areas with higher crime. But none of them are the hellscapes people seem to make them out to be.


I have a friend who lives in Chicago and feels zero risk to his safety. Rides his bike to and from work (20 minute bike ride) every day.

But he also says that there are parts of Chicago he dare not even look at. There are some areas where you couldn't pay him to walk through.

I'm calling bullshit. I'll walk through the Congo for the right price. Everyone has theirs.

If I were willing to go to dangerous places for money, I might as well become a mercenary. No thanks.

You have no sense of adventure! I'm just saying that to claim one couldn't be paid enough to go somewhere is absurd. And people make that all that time. But once you put that number in front of them, dicks are being sucked and mercs are being born. We know this to be true.


And that is a very rational risk-accessment decision. If someone paid you enough money to retire in luxury for the rest of your life, and follow whichever passion you have, how much of a chance of you dying are you willing to take? (Important: Make sure that they have to pay even if you die, otherwise you are setting up a very dangerous enticement structure)

It obviously depends from person to person, there might even be those who wouldn't take even low risks. But most people will probably take at least some risk. I'd guess for the "retire in luxury" package, anything up to 10% would be taken by a lot of people. Anything below 1% would be taken by almost everyone.

What's the monetary equivalent of death so that we can make that EV calculation?

I'm mostly joking around, so don't take my previous posts serious.

I would say the monetary equivalent should be your yearly wage x 15 plus funeral expenses. That should be more than enough to cover lost wages. If you're already in the upper tier of earners, then, well...fuck off?

Let's just set "other expenses" as 5x salary so we can make it salary x 20. Then that would mean that you'd break even at 2x salary for a 10% risk, or a 20% salary for a 1% risk - assuming payout regardless of circumstance, and you lose the 20x salary in the chance that you die. Meh, I'd need more than tens/hundreds of thousands for a moderate-to-severe risk of death. That seems like it'd be most enticing for the poorest; at my above-average-but-not-exorbitant wage I'd very much hesitate to get myself killed.

For the 10 mil: that's a little steep, I think I've heard that "value of a human life" to be closer to the ~6-7 million range.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 19:51:36
August 08 2017 19:50 GMT
#166544
@trump tweet

Well.

In all fairness, what is he supposed to do. If it's true that NK now has nukes that reach the US, it's something you can't just ignore.

edit: although i would've chosen a bit less cringy of a wording.
On track to MA1950A.
ChristianS
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3304 Posts
August 08 2017 19:51 GMT
#166545
On August 09 2017 04:48 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So hes threating to nuke a country...

https://twitter.com/AP/status/895003246372294657

It's curious word choice for sure. One assumes he still doesn't plan to nuke NK, but it's hard to be sure
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." -Robert J. Hanlon
Yurie
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
12175 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 19:53:21
August 08 2017 19:51 GMT
#166546
On August 09 2017 04:50 m4ini wrote:
@trump tweet

Well.

In all fairness, what is he supposed to do. If it's true that NK now has nukes that reach the US, it's something you can't just ignore.


Previous rockets they have tested have had reach for Japan. Not Hawaii and not US main land. They then did not have nukes to arm them with. The posts in this thread seem to say they now have weak nukes that can reach Japan and thus most of South East Asia.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 19:54:40
August 08 2017 19:53 GMT
#166547
On August 09 2017 04:51 Yurie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 04:50 m4ini wrote:
@trump tweet

Well.

In all fairness, what is he supposed to do. If it's true that NK now has nukes that reach the US, it's something you can't just ignore.


Previous rockets they have tested have had reach for Japan. Not Hawaii and not US main land.


If the missile were fired on a flatter, standard trajectory, it would have major US cities such as Los Angeles, Denver and Chicago well within its range, with the possible ability to reach as far as New York and Boston, according to David Wright, a missile expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists.


The one thing they don't know is the payload capabilities of those.
On track to MA1950A.
Yurie
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
12175 Posts
August 08 2017 19:54 GMT
#166548
On August 09 2017 04:53 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 04:51 Yurie wrote:
On August 09 2017 04:50 m4ini wrote:
@trump tweet

Well.

In all fairness, what is he supposed to do. If it's true that NK now has nukes that reach the US, it's something you can't just ignore.


Previous rockets they have tested have had reach for Japan. Not Hawaii and not US main land.


Show nested quote +
If the missile were fired on a flatter, standard trajectory, it would have major US cities such as Los Angeles, Denver and Chicago well within its range, with the possible ability to reach as far as New York and Boston, according to David Wright, a missile expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists.


The one thing they don't know is the payload of those.


K, then I am wrong. Just based it on where they actually sent them previously.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
August 08 2017 19:54 GMT
#166549
On August 09 2017 04:51 Yurie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 04:50 m4ini wrote:
@trump tweet

Well.

In all fairness, what is he supposed to do. If it's true that NK now has nukes that reach the US, it's something you can't just ignore.


Previous rockets they have tested have had reach for Japan. Not Hawaii and not US main land. They then did not have nukes to arm them with. The posts in this thread seem to say they now have weak nukes that can reach Japan and thus most of South East Asia.

It won't take all that long. Before the end of Trump's presidency they might just be able to make ICBMs proper.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 19:58:16
August 08 2017 19:55 GMT
#166550
On August 09 2017 04:54 Yurie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 04:53 m4ini wrote:
On August 09 2017 04:51 Yurie wrote:
On August 09 2017 04:50 m4ini wrote:
@trump tweet

Well.

In all fairness, what is he supposed to do. If it's true that NK now has nukes that reach the US, it's something you can't just ignore.


Previous rockets they have tested have had reach for Japan. Not Hawaii and not US main land.


If the missile were fired on a flatter, standard trajectory, it would have major US cities such as Los Angeles, Denver and Chicago well within its range, with the possible ability to reach as far as New York and Boston, according to David Wright, a missile expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists.


The one thing they don't know is the payload of those.


K, then I am wrong. Just based it on where they actually sent them previously.


http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/29/asia/north-korea-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-test/index.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/28/north-korea-fires-missile-japan-reports-say

Was just recently.

Again, what i can't tell you is if these had a dummy warhead, meaning if they actually had "combat weight". If they were empty in the tests, they would still not reach the US once loaded with a warhead, maybe.

But it's something no president/chancellor whatever would leave un-commented. It's just the wording that makes it cringe.
On track to MA1950A.
FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
Netherlands30548 Posts
August 08 2017 20:01 GMT
#166551
On August 09 2017 04:48 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So hes threating to nuke a country...

https://twitter.com/AP/status/895003246372294657

Will he eat a beautiful chocolate cake before launching the nukes from his golf course though
Neosteel Enthusiast
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 20:04:38
August 08 2017 20:02 GMT
#166552
On August 09 2017 04:20 GreenHorizons wrote:
You guys know that many of the murders that go unsolved in those cities (somewhere around half) are primarily black bodies. You think if those were random white people that shit would still be happening? Not a chance in hell.

The police in those places and many others are actually terrible at their job.

I've talked with my CPD friend about related topics actually. It's demoralizing and frustrating to him that so few murders are brought to justice.

He mentioned a few reasons for why it happens:

1) Shooters in ghettos have knowledge in how to get rid of evidence needed to prosecute. They do things like throw away the gun to places it can't be recovered during a police chase, and then the case gets dropped because you can't prove that the shooter had the gun. Police testimony cannot prove a case beyond a reasonable doubt in most cases, and the culture among gang members is to not cooperate with authorities for these cases.

2) At least in his district, the police are badly understaffed atm. After the Justice Department ruling, the CPD promised 500 more detectives in Chicago. But they don't have the funds to hire 500 more staff, so what they did is turn 500 blue shirts into detectives. Which means 500 less policemen on the streets. They're understaffed to the point where CPD lets him pick his overtime days to make time-and-half. Any day he wants.

3) He told me (take this with a grain of salt if you wish, it's anecdotal) that if people watched police officers every day, they'd be much more upset with police officer inaction than racism. Because it's many times more prevalent. There's a saying in the CPD: "Nobody ever got fired for not showing up." He's very frustrated by it. It's a government job, so it's really hard to fire people. And there's always a risk that you could do nothing wrong and get fired for showing up to shooting calls.

This stems from cases like one he brought up. His sergeant (Pujols? It was a big local media story at one point) showed up to a shooting call, had a guy reach for his gun, sergeant warns him to stop, guy doesn't, sergeant shoots and isn't sure if he hits the guy or not. Note that the officer fired all standard protocols here. A chase ensues, guy throws gun into bushes during the chase. The guy outruns sergeant (who is a fit guy), so it's presumed that he wasn't hit by the bullet.

The guy is a found in an alley (roughly) by policeman later, and it turns out he did get hit. They take him to the hospital, and he dies from the wound.

Police department searches for gun, but can't find it. The next day, a witness shows up and describes the offender as having the same gun described by the sergeant. Since the gun can't be found, the journalists get the story and report "Chicago Policeman Shoots Unarmed Black Teenager!"

An internal police and criminal investigation is launched. Months later, a friend law-abiding citizen reports finding a gun in the bushes outside her home. The bushes are along the path the chase took, and it's the same gun described by both the sergeant and the witness.

The criminal investigation never even results in charges because there's absolutely no case. The media never releases a corrected story though, so there's still public pressure over the sergeant on the CPD. There's absolutely zero finding of wrongdoing by the CPD in their investigation, but they fire him because "he owns a bar" which is in violation of CPD policy. This "bar" was owned by his family, not him, and the CPD had been aware of it for 15 years prior to the firing.

So what happened, at the end of the day, is that he did what exactly what the public wants him to do (take the shooting call), followed all police protocols, was essentially vindicated by all evidence, but a combination of sensationalist journalism and CPD politics got him fired. And, being a police officer with that record, it's much harder to find another job than it is for the average firing. He supports his family with his income, and his career is potentially ruined.

Consequently, a significant proportion of police officers avoid risking their/their family's livelihood to show up to shooting calls where you can do nothing wrong and get fired.

It's a shitty situation for all sides.
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
9067 Posts
August 08 2017 20:03 GMT
#166553
I have no doubt our anti-missile capabilities, so I'm not worried about it hitting the mainland US. I am however concerned for Japan. While we are protecting them, I don't think we should try the hand of a dictator as unpredictable as Kimmy.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 08 2017 20:05 GMT
#166554
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
9067 Posts
August 08 2017 20:08 GMT
#166555
On August 09 2017 05:05 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/895009630115553280

So are they going to wait until the war starts to censure the president, or do it after the vacation? He needs to be banned from any and all social media outlets. This is not diplomacy, it's lunacy. And the ones who will be paying the price are the men and women (and everything in between) that has to go fight.
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 20:09:46
August 08 2017 20:08 GMT
#166556
On August 09 2017 05:03 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
I have no doubt our anti-missile capabilities, so I'm not worried about it hitting the mainland US. I am however concerned for Japan. While we are protecting them, I don't think we should try the hand of a dictator as unpredictable as Kimmy.

You're more confident in our missile defense capabilities than I am. My understanding is that their performance in trials still leave a ~20% pass-through rate, and it's certainly lower in live situations. Also, all militaries have an interest in projecting greater capability in public than they actually possess (to scare off potential threats) so the only certainties I really take in military matters are those that have been battle-proven.

Hopefully I'm wrong on this one though.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany12018 Posts
August 08 2017 20:11 GMT
#166557
On August 09 2017 05:08 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2017 05:05 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/895009630115553280

So are they going to wait until the war starts to censure the president, or do it after the vacation? He needs to be banned from any and all social media outlets. This is not diplomacy, it's lunacy. And the ones who will be paying the price are the men and women (and everything in between) that has to go fight.


Trump should be banned from being president, but it is not like that is going to happen. Rarely has there been such an unqualified and incompetent head of government in a major nation. (I am sure that you can find someone similarly bad if you look hard enough, but that isn't exactly a ringing endorsement)

That man shouldn't be anywhere near any decisionmaking position where he can impact the lives of others, and yet he is president of the US. I assume it would be hard to ban him from anything.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 20:16:21
August 08 2017 20:15 GMT
#166558
The iron dome in Israel, at least from what i can tell, works decent though. Maybe not good enough to call it "impossible to penetrate", but certainly good enough to make you feel better.

But as Zero rightfully stated, whatchu gonna do if they come for Japan. Big ally with quite a few US military installations that are likely to get hit/interfered with too. You just gonna watch, or stand up?

Because, and here's the thing, even though it's my personal opinion: a conflict with NK is inevitable. As in, impossible to prevent. As much as it is impossible to argue with ISIS, it is impossible to argue with a culture that takes the word of their leader (regardless of how retarded it is) over anything factual, even if it's impossible.

edit: not saying "right now", but generally. There will be an armed conflict. I'm absolutely convinced of that.
On track to MA1950A.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14211 Posts
August 08 2017 20:18 GMT
#166559
On August 09 2017 04:20 GreenHorizons wrote:
You guys know that many of the murders that go unsolved in those cities (somewhere around half) are primarily black bodies. You think if those were random white people that shit would still be happening? Not a chance in hell.

The police in those places and many others are actually terrible at their job.

Cities are not as attractive a job as the suburb and rual postings so the cities get all the worst cops by defaut. Its not even just pay but its a self reinforceing cycle that a poor area will not be able to pay for crime prevention so they get more crime and can't pay more for crime prevention.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-08 20:23:42
August 08 2017 20:19 GMT
#166560
On August 09 2017 05:15 m4ini wrote:
The iron dome in Israel, at least from what i can tell, works decent though. Maybe not good enough to call it "impossible to penetrate", but certainly good enough to make you feel better.

But as Zero rightfully stated, whatchu gonna do if they come for Japan. Big ally with quite a few US military installations that are likely to get hit/interfered with too. You just gonna watch, or stand up?

Because, and here's the thing, even though it's my personal opinion: a conflict with NK is inevitable. As in, impossible to prevent. As much as it is impossible to argue with ISIS, it is impossible to argue with a culture that takes the word of their leader (regardless of how retarded it is) over anything factual, even if it's impossible.

edit: not saying "right now", but generally. There will be an armed conflict. I'm absolutely convinced of that.


The Iron Dome is not in the same league in trying to stop Nuclear Weapons from delivering their payloads unless you would somehow want to hit it up in a few thousand feet above it's target which defeats the entire purpose.

Remember when Trump started the whole Middle East Crisis with Qatar etc. he didn't even know there were US Troops stationed there why would he know if there were in Japan?
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
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