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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 7945

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

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Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35173 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-26 20:56:00
June 26 2017 20:55 GMT
#158881
On June 27 2017 05:51 Buckyman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 05:50 GreenHorizons wrote:
Did the study cover the bottom lines of businesses? Like could people have been more productive at $13 meaning business paid the same for labor but needed less labor hours to get the same amount of work done?


If businesses could have done that, they probably would already have done so.


I feel that's kind of why outsourcing exists. They can do it and still keep hours high because while their wages are relatively low of the business, they're adequate/good for local.
Slydie
Profile Joined August 2013
1984 Posts
June 26 2017 20:57 GMT
#158882
On June 27 2017 05:37 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 05:25 Noidberg wrote:
On June 27 2017 05:17 zlefin wrote:
On June 27 2017 05:08 Noidberg wrote:
On June 27 2017 05:03 Nevuk wrote:
Making the maximum amount of money is not necessarily the end all be all for everyone. If I worked 30 hr/wk and made the same as if I were working 40, I'd be glad even if it meant I didn't have the opportunity to work 50 hours/wk.

Bravo. We really need to bite the bullet here and raise min wage to reflect on inflation. The middle class is dying as the poor are getting poorer and the rich richer. This is the solution to solve our poverty crisis not welfare. With expendable income the lower to middle class can now allocate resources to education or investment instead of just keeping their head above water.

minimum wage is a welfare program though; just by another more palatable name.
That said, it seems an acceptable, though rather imperfect, tool to accomplish the task.
middle class dying isn't really affected by minimum wage issues; it has entirely to do with structural changes in the economy.
it's certainly good to scale minimum wage to reflect inflation at any rate of course.

Yeah true its hard to work your way up these days so to speak and a low min wage just keeps you stagnant. The idea is more income gives people options to purse opportunities or just have fun without a middle class then? I just want to avoid a class divide where poor people are on food stamps without work or opportunity.

again, minimum wage has NOTHING to do wtih middle class.
avoiding a class divide is good; but you gotta understand the effects of what you do, and what will and will not work.
I get the feeling you're advocating for policies with very little understanding of their actual strength/weaknesses/effects.
dealing with the stagnation issues also has to be addressed from a number of other perspectives; such as cost of living, savings habits, and educational opportunity.


What you need is strong unions, who can force the richest to share more of their wealth with their workers. Wages should be negotiated collectively, not forced by law.

Unions being labelled as horrible by society, and fought by politicians, is one major reason for the middle class getting poorer. The industries will adapt, and the truth is, you can't beat out India and Bangladesh on wages no matter what you do.
Buff the siegetank
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
June 26 2017 20:57 GMT
#158883
On June 27 2017 05:50 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 05:02 Plansix wrote:
On June 27 2017 04:58 GreenHorizons wrote:
On June 27 2017 04:25 Danglars wrote:
On June 27 2017 03:24 Buckyman wrote:
The city of Seattle's study on the effects of its minimum wage increases are in.

tl;dr: mixed results on an $11/hr minimum wage - "the relatively modest estimated wage and hours
impacts of the first phase-in create considerable statistical uncertainty" - but the further increase to $13/hr was clearly a mistake - "within Seattle,low-wage workers lost $3 from lost employment opportunities for every $1 they gain due to higher hourly wages".

Yeah 538 reporting on the study highlighted that affected workers lost 125$/month after the increase to 13$. I hope Seattle treats its lowest-income workers better in the future.


Funny you would be fighting for the low wage worker and not thrilled that businesses are saving money?

So if this study is to be believed, a $13 minimum wage is cheaper for business than a $11 minimum wage. Seems like pro business folks should be clamoring to make it $15 and hope to save even more money.

I don’t believe that is the case. It is that the increased wages makes it so less works hours are available. That businesses did not spend more money on labor, so the market got smaller.


So the argument that higher minimum wage costs businesses more isn't accurate, or they paid more for less work and then just made less money?

Did the study cover the bottom lines of businesses? Like could people have been more productive at $13 meaning business paid the same for labor but needed less labor hours to get the same amount of work done?

What the study is saying that that there is appears to be a finite amount of money that the businesses in the area are willing to spend on labor and $13 per hour runs up against that. It doesn’t say that it is better for the businesses.

I have not fully read the study. I only glanced through a couple articles covering it. It is linked on a previous page if you want to spend your own time reading it.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24134 Posts
June 26 2017 21:00 GMT
#158884
On June 27 2017 05:57 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 05:50 GreenHorizons wrote:
On June 27 2017 05:02 Plansix wrote:
On June 27 2017 04:58 GreenHorizons wrote:
On June 27 2017 04:25 Danglars wrote:
On June 27 2017 03:24 Buckyman wrote:
The city of Seattle's study on the effects of its minimum wage increases are in.

tl;dr: mixed results on an $11/hr minimum wage - "the relatively modest estimated wage and hours
impacts of the first phase-in create considerable statistical uncertainty" - but the further increase to $13/hr was clearly a mistake - "within Seattle,low-wage workers lost $3 from lost employment opportunities for every $1 they gain due to higher hourly wages".

Yeah 538 reporting on the study highlighted that affected workers lost 125$/month after the increase to 13$. I hope Seattle treats its lowest-income workers better in the future.


Funny you would be fighting for the low wage worker and not thrilled that businesses are saving money?

So if this study is to be believed, a $13 minimum wage is cheaper for business than a $11 minimum wage. Seems like pro business folks should be clamoring to make it $15 and hope to save even more money.

I don’t believe that is the case. It is that the increased wages makes it so less works hours are available. That businesses did not spend more money on labor, so the market got smaller.


So the argument that higher minimum wage costs businesses more isn't accurate, or they paid more for less work and then just made less money?

Did the study cover the bottom lines of businesses? Like could people have been more productive at $13 meaning business paid the same for labor but needed less labor hours to get the same amount of work done?

What the study is saying that that there is appears to be a finite amount of money that the businesses in the area are willing to spend on labor and $13 per hour runs up against that. It doesn’t say that it is better for the businesses.

I have not fully read the study. I only glanced through a couple articles covering it. It is linked on a previous page if you want to spend your own time reading it.


Yeah from what I read, they had no consideration for what the businesses bottom lines said. So businesses could be acting like idiots or cleaning up as a result and it's not reflected in the study
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
June 26 2017 21:00 GMT
#158885
On June 27 2017 04:58 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 04:25 Danglars wrote:
On June 27 2017 03:24 Buckyman wrote:
The city of Seattle's study on the effects of its minimum wage increases are in.

tl;dr: mixed results on an $11/hr minimum wage - "the relatively modest estimated wage and hours
impacts of the first phase-in create considerable statistical uncertainty" - but the further increase to $13/hr was clearly a mistake - "within Seattle,low-wage workers lost $3 from lost employment opportunities for every $1 they gain due to higher hourly wages".

Yeah 538 reporting on the study highlighted that affected workers lost 125$/month after the increase to 13$. I hope Seattle treats its lowest-income workers better in the future.


Funny you would be fighting for the low wage worker and not thrilled that businesses are saving money?

So if this study is to be believed, a $13 minimum wage is cheaper for business than a $11 minimum wage. Seems like pro business folks should be clamoring to make it $15 and hope to save even more money.

I haven't fully digested the study as it applies to businesses, I only have read secondary reporting on its impact for workers. That part of the equation appeared very bad.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-26 21:12:03
June 26 2017 21:08 GMT
#158886
On June 27 2017 05:45 Doodsmack wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 02:09 Plansix wrote:
There are rumors floating around that the Senate Healthcare bill may bar someone from getting insurance for 6 months if they have a laps in coverage. Legally baring a US citizen from an entire market sounds legally questionable. Also easily abused by insurance providers without a fleshed out appeal process.

Edit: 63 day lapse, per the newest version of the bill.


So apparently the purpose of this provision is to be a substitute for the individual mandate. It is supposed to convince people to sign up for insurance, because otherwise they'd have to wait for 6 months once they decide to sign up. Doesn't seem very compelling to me.

Aside from that restriction, insurance companies will be required to accept everyone. Can someone tell me how this will not simply be worse than Obamacare. And was a better plan expected from Republicans?

it won't be better than obamacare; it'll be worse than both obamacare, and worse than an outright repeal of obamacare.
a better plan was not expected from republicans; the politics of the situation prevent them from implementing a sensible plan (including plans that might be called heartless, but are at least sensible).
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
NewSunshine
Profile Joined July 2011
United States5938 Posts
June 26 2017 21:10 GMT
#158887
On June 27 2017 05:26 Plansix wrote:


Want a lower minimum wage, make the cost of living cheaper. AKA, don’t do what the GOP is doing right now. 22 million is quite a few.

And all that money is just going straight to the already obscenely rich. What a joke. But yes, let's deregulate more.
"If you find yourself feeling lost, take pride in the accuracy of your feelings." - Night Vale
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
June 26 2017 21:11 GMT
#158888
On June 27 2017 06:00 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 05:57 Plansix wrote:
On June 27 2017 05:50 GreenHorizons wrote:
On June 27 2017 05:02 Plansix wrote:
On June 27 2017 04:58 GreenHorizons wrote:
On June 27 2017 04:25 Danglars wrote:
On June 27 2017 03:24 Buckyman wrote:
The city of Seattle's study on the effects of its minimum wage increases are in.

tl;dr: mixed results on an $11/hr minimum wage - "the relatively modest estimated wage and hours
impacts of the first phase-in create considerable statistical uncertainty" - but the further increase to $13/hr was clearly a mistake - "within Seattle,low-wage workers lost $3 from lost employment opportunities for every $1 they gain due to higher hourly wages".

Yeah 538 reporting on the study highlighted that affected workers lost 125$/month after the increase to 13$. I hope Seattle treats its lowest-income workers better in the future.


Funny you would be fighting for the low wage worker and not thrilled that businesses are saving money?

So if this study is to be believed, a $13 minimum wage is cheaper for business than a $11 minimum wage. Seems like pro business folks should be clamoring to make it $15 and hope to save even more money.

I don’t believe that is the case. It is that the increased wages makes it so less works hours are available. That businesses did not spend more money on labor, so the market got smaller.


So the argument that higher minimum wage costs businesses more isn't accurate, or they paid more for less work and then just made less money?

Did the study cover the bottom lines of businesses? Like could people have been more productive at $13 meaning business paid the same for labor but needed less labor hours to get the same amount of work done?

What the study is saying that that there is appears to be a finite amount of money that the businesses in the area are willing to spend on labor and $13 per hour runs up against that. It doesn’t say that it is better for the businesses.

I have not fully read the study. I only glanced through a couple articles covering it. It is linked on a previous page if you want to spend your own time reading it.


Yeah from what I read, they had no consideration for what the businesses bottom lines said. So businesses could be acting like idiots or cleaning up as a result and it's not reflected in the study

Business can act like idiots. But from someone who’s family ran a small business for 40 years, sometimes there is only so much they can spend on labor. My family’s business competes with manufacturing in Mexico and we constantly got priced out of jobs because of it. And we(my parents) employ like 10 people. A 13 dollar minimum wage would end effectively end business. And no other jobs would replace it in the economic wasteland that is my home town.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
June 26 2017 21:11 GMT
#158889
On June 27 2017 05:57 Slydie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 05:37 zlefin wrote:
On June 27 2017 05:25 Noidberg wrote:
On June 27 2017 05:17 zlefin wrote:
On June 27 2017 05:08 Noidberg wrote:
On June 27 2017 05:03 Nevuk wrote:
Making the maximum amount of money is not necessarily the end all be all for everyone. If I worked 30 hr/wk and made the same as if I were working 40, I'd be glad even if it meant I didn't have the opportunity to work 50 hours/wk.

Bravo. We really need to bite the bullet here and raise min wage to reflect on inflation. The middle class is dying as the poor are getting poorer and the rich richer. This is the solution to solve our poverty crisis not welfare. With expendable income the lower to middle class can now allocate resources to education or investment instead of just keeping their head above water.

minimum wage is a welfare program though; just by another more palatable name.
That said, it seems an acceptable, though rather imperfect, tool to accomplish the task.
middle class dying isn't really affected by minimum wage issues; it has entirely to do with structural changes in the economy.
it's certainly good to scale minimum wage to reflect inflation at any rate of course.

Yeah true its hard to work your way up these days so to speak and a low min wage just keeps you stagnant. The idea is more income gives people options to purse opportunities or just have fun without a middle class then? I just want to avoid a class divide where poor people are on food stamps without work or opportunity.

again, minimum wage has NOTHING to do wtih middle class.
avoiding a class divide is good; but you gotta understand the effects of what you do, and what will and will not work.
I get the feeling you're advocating for policies with very little understanding of their actual strength/weaknesses/effects.
dealing with the stagnation issues also has to be addressed from a number of other perspectives; such as cost of living, savings habits, and educational opportunity.


What you need is strong unions, who can force the richest to share more of their wealth with their workers. Wages should be negotiated collectively, not forced by law.

Unions being labelled as horrible by society, and fought by politicians, is one major reason for the middle class getting poorer. The industries will adapt, and the truth is, you can't beat out India and Bangladesh on wages no matter what you do.

unions can work; thoug has with all monopolies they can also cause substantial harm at times.
part of hte problem is american-style unions (as compared to european-style unions); or at least that's what I've heard.

wages negotiated by force of union or force of law; I'm not seeing a huge practical difference. but certainly some better unions would be helpful.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Buckyman
Profile Joined May 2014
1364 Posts
June 26 2017 21:17 GMT
#158890
Consider an ideal labor monopoly union; all low-wage workers are members, the union is fully informed about all facets of the labor market, the union is perfect at negotiating salary, and the union's goal is to get as much money from businesses as possible.

In this case, it's pretty clear that this union would negotiate a salary that's less than the $13 minimum wage, probably somewhere in the $9.47-$11 bracket, because pushing the salary higher costs too many of their members' jobs.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
June 26 2017 21:17 GMT
#158891
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-26 21:20:13
June 26 2017 21:20 GMT
#158892
On June 27 2017 06:00 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 04:58 GreenHorizons wrote:
On June 27 2017 04:25 Danglars wrote:
On June 27 2017 03:24 Buckyman wrote:
The city of Seattle's study on the effects of its minimum wage increases are in.

tl;dr: mixed results on an $11/hr minimum wage - "the relatively modest estimated wage and hours
impacts of the first phase-in create considerable statistical uncertainty" - but the further increase to $13/hr was clearly a mistake - "within Seattle,low-wage workers lost $3 from lost employment opportunities for every $1 they gain due to higher hourly wages".

Yeah 538 reporting on the study highlighted that affected workers lost 125$/month after the increase to 13$. I hope Seattle treats its lowest-income workers better in the future.


Funny you would be fighting for the low wage worker and not thrilled that businesses are saving money?

So if this study is to be believed, a $13 minimum wage is cheaper for business than a $11 minimum wage. Seems like pro business folks should be clamoring to make it $15 and hope to save even more money.

I haven't fully digested the study as it applies to businesses, I only have read secondary reporting on its impact for workers. That part of the equation appeared very bad.


Well, for the workers in the non-restaurant sector anyway. 538 said the study authors say their analysis showed no net loss for employees in the restaurant sector.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
June 26 2017 21:26 GMT
#158893
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Buckyman
Profile Joined May 2014
1364 Posts
June 26 2017 21:30 GMT
#158894
When doing nothing has already cost 8 million people their health insurance and those 8 million are included in that 15 million? Sounds like a 1 million person per year improvement to me.
Amui
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada10567 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-26 21:33:55
June 26 2017 21:30 GMT
#158895
On June 27 2017 05:50 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 05:02 Plansix wrote:
On June 27 2017 04:58 GreenHorizons wrote:
On June 27 2017 04:25 Danglars wrote:
On June 27 2017 03:24 Buckyman wrote:
The city of Seattle's study on the effects of its minimum wage increases are in.

tl;dr: mixed results on an $11/hr minimum wage - "the relatively modest estimated wage and hours
impacts of the first phase-in create considerable statistical uncertainty" - but the further increase to $13/hr was clearly a mistake - "within Seattle,low-wage workers lost $3 from lost employment opportunities for every $1 they gain due to higher hourly wages".

Yeah 538 reporting on the study highlighted that affected workers lost 125$/month after the increase to 13$. I hope Seattle treats its lowest-income workers better in the future.


Funny you would be fighting for the low wage worker and not thrilled that businesses are saving money?

So if this study is to be believed, a $13 minimum wage is cheaper for business than a $11 minimum wage. Seems like pro business folks should be clamoring to make it $15 and hope to save even more money.

I don’t believe that is the case. It is that the increased wages makes it so less works hours are available. That businesses did not spend more money on labor, so the market got smaller.


So the argument that higher minimum wage costs businesses more isn't accurate, or they paid more for less work and then just made less money?

Did the study cover the bottom lines of businesses? Like could people have been more productive at $13 meaning business paid the same for labor but needed less labor hours to get the same amount of work done?

While people are generally more motivated when paid more, I don't think their efficiency increase would equal the increase in labour costs. You'd need to find the money to pay for minimum wage increase elsewhere.
Porouscloud - NA LoL
NewSunshine
Profile Joined July 2011
United States5938 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-26 21:34:03
June 26 2017 21:33 GMT
#158896
On June 27 2017 06:30 Buckyman wrote:
When doing nothing has already cost 8 million people their health insurance and those 8 million are included in that 15 million? Sounds like a 1 million person per year improvement to me.

That's not how math works, it's 15 million per year next year, not 7. Still 88% worse.
"If you find yourself feeling lost, take pride in the accuracy of your feelings." - Night Vale
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-26 21:38:42
June 26 2017 21:36 GMT
#158897
Does the study even address if this was a rational outcome by businesses or not? How much does the companies' desire not to pay higher minimum wages factor into their decisions about how to staff? It is also looking at the short term it seems like?

Like no one expects raising the minimum wage to create new money out of thin air, the expectation is it's going to come from the top down..

So yeah for now wages are cut because hours were cut to keep the previous equilibrium, but what happens in a year (or better yet several) from now when companies have thought about their next year budget and have decided between giving raising and increasing hours for minimum wage workers?

That and it's not peer reviewed yet. Sloppy reporting.

I'm also curious if it's underselling the effect on people working multiple jobs. If you're working two jobs but now can get the same (or slightly less) money for significantly less hours that could be a big external benefit to you.
Logo
Buckyman
Profile Joined May 2014
1364 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-26 21:43:33
June 26 2017 21:41 GMT
#158898
On June 27 2017 06:33 NewSunshine wrote:
That's not how math works, it's 15 million per year next year, not 7. Still 88% worse.


15 million people = (2 years' projection under old rules) - (current value plus one year's projection under new rules)
8 million people = (1 years' projection under old rules) - (current value)
Therefore:
7 million people = (1 year's projection under old rules) - (one year's projection under new rules)

I'm doing a bit of apples-to-oranges in assuming the second year projection under the old rules will continue to be as optimistic as it was over the first year, but the new projection will be accurate.

Regardless, the way he put it presents the 15 million figure as though it were the 7 million figure. A majority of the people in that 15 million figure have already 'lost' their insurance.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
June 26 2017 21:44 GMT
#158899
Wait, are 7 million people slated to lose healthcare next year if nothing is done to the ACA? Is that the argument?
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Buckyman
Profile Joined May 2014
1364 Posts
June 26 2017 21:45 GMT
#158900
On June 27 2017 06:36 Logo wrote:
So yeah for now wages are cut because hours were cut to keep the previous equilibrium, but what happens in a year (or better yet several) from now when companies have thought about their next year budget and have decided between giving raising and increasing hours for minimum wage workers.


It looks like the study covers one full year after the second hike. It couldn't go further without contaminating the results because of another minimum wage hike.
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