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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 6777

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
February 05 2017 17:39 GMT
#135521
Brilliant let's add Italy to the list of former allies as well:

A powerful American cardinal who is engaged in a bitter feud with Pope Francis has met Matteo Salvini, the rightwing Italian nationalist who is a staunch supporter of Donald Trump and has praised Benito Mussolini.

The reported meeting between Cardinal Raymond Burke and Salvini, the head of the Northern League party, is a sign that intense divisions between traditionalists and the pope are becoming increasingly political.

Pope Francis’s allies in the church, who back his message of inclusion and support for immigrants, are speaking out against the US president’s travel ban against refugees and immigrants from majority-Muslim countries. Cardinal Joseph Tobin of Newark, New Jersey, who was recently promoted by Francis, called Trump’s executive order a “dark day” for America. Tobin has also suggested that Trump is a conman.

At the same time, Francis’s harshest critics appear to be aligning themselves with the new Republican president and his acolytes around the world, including Salvini.

Burke, who is one of four cardinals who signed an open letter to Francis last year questioning new guidance allowing priests to decide whether divorced and remarried believers should be able to receive communion, praised Trump after his election in November. He said the surprise victory represented a clear win for pro-life causes and said the US president tended to surround himself with “very sound advisers”.

“I don’t think the new president will be inspired by hatred in his treatment of the issue of immigration,” Burke told the National Catholic Register, a conservative Catholic publication, at the time. He added: “Charity is always intelligent; it demands to know: Exactly who are these immigrants? Are they really refugees, and what communities can sustain them?”

During the 2016 election, Francis criticised Trump’s call for a border wall between the US and Mexico, saying any person who supported such policies “is not Christian”.

The meeting between Burke and Salvini reportedly took place last Thursday in Burke’s home in the Vatican and lasted for an hour and a half, according to a report by Francesco Grana, a Vatican journalist.

A spokeswoman for Salvini declined to comment about whether the meeting took place. But she confirmed that Salvini was at the Vatican at the time. A spokesman for the pope did not respond to a request for comment.

It is highly unusual for a senior American cleric to meet with the head of an Italian political party.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Orome
Profile Blog Joined June 2004
Switzerland11984 Posts
February 05 2017 17:43 GMT
#135522
On February 06 2017 02:21 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
Donald Trump’s defense of Vladimir Putin’s homicidal history isn’t sitting well with fellow Republicans.

Three Republican senators and several other conservatives were quick to condemn or distance themselves from the president seeming to put Putin on equal standing with the United States when it comes to killing.

In a pre-taped Fox interview partially released on Saturday and set to air in full during the Super Bowl pre-game show, Bill O’Reilly pressed Trump on his warm relationship with Putin.

Trump stressed that stronger U.S.- Russia ties could help defeat the Islamic State.

But “Putin’s a killer,” O’Reilly said.

“You got a lot of killers,” Trump shot back. “What, you think our country’s so innocent?”

Trump’s repeated expressions of admiration for Putin was already a sore spot for Republicans who consider the Russian leader a threat to the post-WWII global order. The president's latest statement has put the breach right back in the spotlight.

“He’s a thug,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said of Putin on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “The Russians annexed Crimea, invaded Ukraine and messed around in our elections. No, I don’t think there’s any equivalency between the way the Russians conduct themselves and the way the United States does.”

When host Jake Tapper responded that Republicans would have been in revolt if Barack Obama said something similar, McConnell, who’s made a point of not harshly criticizing Trump, made clear his opinion on the matter.

“I’m not going to critique the president’s every utterance," the Senate leader said. "But I do think America is exceptional, America is different. We don’t operate in any way the way the Russians do. I think there’s a clear distinction here that all Americans understand and I would not have characterized it that way.”

Was McConnell confident that Trump understood? Tapper asked. “I obviously don’t see this issue the same way he does,” McConnell replied.

The Republican leader wasn’t alone in his discomfort.

“When has a Democratic political activists been poisoned by the GOP, or vice versa? We are not the same as #Putin,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), a Russia hawk, tweeted Sunday.


Source


Figures that one of the more sensible things Trump's said this week might end up hurting him more than all the really, really dumb shit.

I've been getting really annoyed with the WaPo recently for seemingly being content with being the '101 reasons to hate Donald Trump including racism, world war 3 and the playground antics of his third cousin by marriage' paper. Then I went to Breitbart for the first time in my life. First thing I clicked on wasthis. Oh dear.
On a purely personal note, I'd like to show Yellow the beauty of infinitely repeating Starcraft 2 bunkers. -Boxer
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-05 17:50:50
February 05 2017 17:48 GMT
#135523
On February 06 2017 02:17 pmh wrote:
Is trump going to make 100 days in office? I am beginning to doubt.

I think it very likely he will.
I took a glance over the current betting options, not that anything is exactly on point
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2657726

in general - trump isn't the kind of person to resign in the face of being impeached (if it gets to that point), and government rarely moves fast.
it'll take some time for his support amongst republicans to dip enough for the party to be willing to take action, barring something really extreme. I don't think Pence is planning to legally coup, at least not soon, he'd probably use a similar metric as congress would.
and even if actions is taken, it may take awhile before it's finished, so making 100 days should be pretty feasible.

what's more likely to happen in thta timeframe if things get dumber is that a lot of stuff he'll do gets blocked in courts, or congress defunds it, or bureaucratic stalling that kinda nullifies it.


on other topic:
it is peculiar the amount of flak trump is getting for the comment about us not being so innocent, which is one of the more reasonable points. maybe it's hurting him more because it goes more against republican/conservative typical beliefs? or maybe it's not really hurting him, and it's just talk. so much talk these days hard to track it all.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
nojok
Profile Joined May 2011
France15845 Posts
February 05 2017 18:02 GMT
#135524
At least Trump showed it was possible to take strong actions fast. I'm not implying that other executives should rush decisions as fast as he does but at least speed up the process. All politicians make promises and should have pondered the means to achieve what they want to do prior to the election campaign. Trump showed that huge bureaucracies are not as inert as we're inclined to believe.
"Back then teams that won were credited, now it's called throw. I think it's sad." - Kuroky - Flap Flap Wings!
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-05 18:08:24
February 05 2017 18:07 GMT
#135525
On February 06 2017 03:02 nojok wrote:
At least Trump showed it was possible to take strong actions fast. I'm not implying that other executives should rush decisions as fast as he does but at least speed up the process. All politicians make promises and should have pondered the means to achieve what they want to do prior to the election campaign. Trump showed that huge bureaucracies are not as inert as we're inclined to believe.

not really. it's well known that you can issue actions fast, and politicians often try to do a bunch at the start.
but taking action != accomplishing anything. and if you go haste makes waste you didn't accomplish much.

also a big difference between ordering stuff done, and it actually getting done, which is the issue with bureaucracies.
it's also always been clear that it is possible for an executive to do certain things fast.

I don't think trump's actions will do anything to speed up processes, if anything the opposite, as they show the dangers of rushing.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
TheYango
Profile Joined September 2008
United States47024 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-05 18:08:15
February 05 2017 18:07 GMT
#135526
It's easy to do things quickly when you don't bother to think through your decisions or work out minute details of implementation.

Having rough, half-baked ideas was barely acceptable 6 months ago when he was still a candidate. It's certainly not acceptable now, especially if he's implementing said ideas in half-baked form, leading to travesties like blocking green card holders from re-entering the US.

Good ideas implemented poorly are no better than ideas that were bad to begin with.
Moderator
WolfintheSheep
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada14127 Posts
February 05 2017 18:20 GMT
#135527
On February 06 2017 03:02 nojok wrote:
At least Trump showed it was possible to take strong actions fast. I'm not implying that other executives should rush decisions as fast as he does but at least speed up the process. All politicians make promises and should have pondered the means to achieve what they want to do prior to the election campaign. Trump showed that huge bureaucracies are not as inert as we're inclined to believe.

I mean, his executive orders thus far have as much thought and planning as his campaign promises.

Which is to say none.

I mean, his plan to defeat ISIS is literally telling his executives they have 30 days to make a plan to defeat ISIS.

If anything, Trump is showing why bureaucracy exists in the first place.
Average means I'm better than half of you.
biology]major
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States2253 Posts
February 05 2017 18:31 GMT
#135528
ISIS isn't going anywhere unless there is a massive ground force involved, so I'm not sure what he expects there. I'm not against that idea but it doesn't line up with Trump's "we have been in enough expensive wars." My prediction: Trump will use ground force in the next 100 days.
Question.?
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
February 05 2017 18:38 GMT
#135529
I'm inclined to believe reports that Trump and Bannon actually want the ban to go farther than it does, and that keeping out green card holders was very much intentional.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1352 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-05 18:45:01
February 05 2017 18:43 GMT
#135530
Usa cant get to isis on the ground that easily. They can in Iraq but not in Syria as it is rusian influence so they have to fight proxy war by supplying the rebels. Isis seems to be on the decline with their influence and I think this will continue. Maybe trump will make deal with rusia,usa withdraws all involvement in Syria and attempts to get rid of assad so that assad/rusia can fully focus on isis and wont have to deal with other rebel groups as much. I doubt the usa will use ground forces other then advisors and special ops. Air operations will probably be increased but they can not fully shut down isis,just make live very miserable for everyone in the area.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
February 05 2017 18:48 GMT
#135531
Well the ban is only until we figure out what's going on in the region, so it shouldn't really be a big deal.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21642 Posts
February 05 2017 18:48 GMT
#135532
On February 06 2017 03:43 pmh wrote:
Usa cant get to isis on the ground that easily. They can in Iraq but not in Syria as it is rusian influence so they have to fight proxy war by supplying the rebels. Isis seems to be on the decline with their influence and I think this will continue. Maybe trump will make deal with rusia,usa withdraws all involvement in Syria and attempts to get rid of assad so that assad/rusia can fully focus on isis and wont have to deal with other rebel groups as much. I doubt the usa will use ground forces other then advisors and special ops. Air operations will probably be increased but they can not fully shut down isis,just make live very miserable for everyone in the area.

I'm pretty sure Trump will have already dropped/never had the desire to get rid of Assad.

If Russia believes the US will be just there to get rid of isis (which will be true since Trump would just want an easy victory to show off) they will probably cooperate.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21642 Posts
February 05 2017 18:50 GMT
#135533
On February 06 2017 03:48 LegalLord wrote:
Well the ban is only until we figure out what's going on in the region, so it shouldn't really be a big deal.

And it would have not been that big of a deal if it had been a temporary refugee stop and not a blanket ban.
(it would probably still have been resisted because its Trump doing it but the courts would not have shut it down).
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
February 05 2017 19:17 GMT
#135534
On February 06 2017 03:48 LegalLord wrote:
Well the ban is only until we figure out what's going on in the region, so it shouldn't really be a big deal.

Yea, 40, 50 years from now we should be getting a handle on it...Said everyone 90 years ago.
Freeeeeeedom
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
February 05 2017 19:18 GMT
#135535
On February 06 2017 03:43 pmh wrote:
Usa cant get to isis on the ground that easily. They can in Iraq but not in Syria as it is rusian influence so they have to fight proxy war by supplying the rebels. Isis seems to be on the decline with their influence and I think this will continue. Maybe trump will make deal with rusia,usa withdraws all involvement in Syria and attempts to get rid of assad so that assad/rusia can fully focus on isis and wont have to deal with other rebel groups as much. I doubt the usa will use ground forces other then advisors and special ops. Air operations will probably be increased but they can not fully shut down isis,just make live very miserable for everyone in the area.

US could get to isis on the ground, it's just be expensive and a nuisance, with poor endgame scenarios.
not sure how it's changed since I last estimated, but a ground invasion of the ISIS land would probably cost the US 50-100 billion, and a few hundred casualties.
the real problem is the aftermath, you won't manage to catch all of ISIS that quickly, many will go into hiding/flee. but you can't just leave without them trying to come back, and it's unlikely there'd be someone else who could effectively occupy the territory.
also a minor legal question of what to do with any captured ISIS fighters, some of whom are technically compliant with the Geneva conventions on warfare, and don't have any specific criminal charges to be brought up against them.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
February 05 2017 19:33 GMT
#135536
On February 06 2017 04:17 cLutZ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 06 2017 03:48 LegalLord wrote:
Well the ban is only until we figure out what's going on in the region, so it shouldn't really be a big deal.

Yea, 40, 50 years from now we should be getting a handle on it...Said everyone 90 years ago.

Well the sooner we start figuring it out, the sooner we'll finish.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Blisse
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada3710 Posts
February 05 2017 19:39 GMT
#135537
Speaking of ISIS I found this Reddit comment which was really understandable

https://np.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/5s0whp/eli5_why_is_a_terrorist_organization_like_isis_so/ddc8qz4/?sh=6204f991&st=IYS6UHFP

TL;DR: To almost every actor in the region, they are more useful alive than dead

To understand the answer, we must first understand some significant points:
1) Any answer that says "x is the main problem" is super simplistic. It may have part of a problem, but, like the rest of the grown up problems of the world, a complex issue like ISIS/terrorism cannot be reduced to a single point.
2) There are always more questions than clear answers. This is a significant problem when lives are at stake, but I do believe that, given the research over the last century or so, we have a fairly reasonable idea.

The single sentence answer, which necessarily needs to be broken down into a thousand different pieces, is as follows:

The vast majority of terrorism in the last two centuries has been committed due to the political interaction of identity and the state

To understand this completely, we have to understand the concept of the nation. Most people around the world feel nationality in at least three levels:

1) Lowest level - The state as a function of nation 2) Mid level - the Ethnic group as a nation 3) Highest level - Religious group as a nation

There are other "nations" as well, but these three are the most common. Now, the marriage of Westphalian peace that designated (theoretically) standard borders and the increased centralization and power of governments, the challenge became to somehow synthesize these three. The idea of a political "people" is born. The most cohesive state, then, was one where people shared all three national identities. The least cohesive state was one that had neither 2nd or 3rd, and thus even the function of the state as a nation fall into peril.

Following the peace at Westphalia, Europe was consumed by violence which was primarily nationalistic violence. Between revolutions, revolts, genocides, and ethnic cleansing, Europe was a blood bath from 1648 to 1945. When one portion of Europe reached stability, another portion was lit ablaze by nationalist politics.

The Arab world never had that moment. Even after the fall of colonial powers in the Arab world, the cold war politics of the US and Russia necessitated that the Middle East, a key region in the cold war, could not suffer the instability like that of Europe after Westphalia. So strong men were put in place who clamped down on the political negotiations which are required for the long term stability of a state which functions as a nation (A nation state).

Now, fast forward to today. The strong men of the Arab world collapse (Saddam and Yemen forcefully, Mubarak, Qadhafi, and Assad by public pressure). This unleashes a huge tide of suppressed nationalist politics, which is always, always, always both disastrously bloody and excessively violent. Add in the Western exploitation of Pan-Islamism for combating the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, which leads to 9/11 (once the Soviets were defeated in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda and other mujahideen groups focused on two other Empires encroaching on "Muslim sovereignty," the US (Iraq, Palestine, the Gulf) and Russia (Chechnya)).

Now, how does this lead to terrorism against the West?

The West obviously has a terrible reputation in the Middle East, going back two centuries. But America's bad reputation starts in the 50s, with the opposition of the United States to Mossadeq, the United States propping up of Israel, the US opposition to Nasser (who was extremely popular in the Arab world), and the United States support of dictators. Now, add the Iraq sanctions and the Iraq War II, and you get just flaming hatred for the West.

That hatred is used by the Pan-Islamists in fighting the US wherever it has presence in the Muslim world. But, for nationalists like ISIS, it has a much more sinister use.

Attacking "the West" creates legitimacy for ISIS. Due to the involvement of the US during the cold war (and after) in the Middle East, hatred for the West is immense in the Arab world. Attacks against the "oppressors," then, serves as a legitimizing tool in a fight where manpower is at a premium.
This leads us to ISIS of today. It is a nationalist movement which gains legitimacy for showing how it is fighting the historic oppressors by bringing the war to them. "We are doing to them what they have been doing to us" is the line they use consistently in their recruitment material. The goal, though, is to swell their ranks LOCALLY, not to actually harm the west in any way. No one seriously thinks ISIS is creating any real national security risk for Western nation -- not ISIS, and not Western nations. This is just a really great propaganda tool for them.

Now, given all the above, why is ISIS so difficult to defeat:
The reason why ISIS in particular has not been defeated, is, primarily power politics:
1) Power politics between nations always supersedes the threat of terrorist organizations
2) ISIS is not the main concern of Middle Eastern nations. The power imbalance and vacuum between Iran, the Gulf allies, and Turkey is
3) The Syrian civil war adds to those complications significantly
4) Nations are more focused on fighting for power balance than against ISIS
5) In managing the power politics in the Middle East, ISIS is actually useful for most if not all powers in the area

Let's give a couple examples:

1) Turkey:
Turkey was fighting Assad in Syria, but the Kurds to the north were a serious threat to their territorial integrity. As such, they helped ISIS fight the kurds to the north as well. But to assuage Western powers, they made a show of fighting ISIS as well.

2) Saudi:
Saudi is actively funding ISIS to push back Iranian allied Syria and Iraq and force Iran into a perpetual war with ISIS. This is because the Gulf allies are terrified of being surrounded by the Iranian led alliance of Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. It therefore needs to ally with groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda to force Iran into perpetual war and keep it from cementing that alliance.

3) Iran:
Iran wants to fight ISIS. It really does. It's probably the most active in fighting ISIS. But it can't make a death blow to ISIS yet, because of Iraq and Russia.

4) Russia:
ISIS is extremely useful to Russia. As long as ISIS remains a force, it provides Russia diplomatic cover for its activities in support of Assad as long as it can shove a few bombs towards ISIS and say that it's there for terrorism. Therefore, Russia NEEDS ISIS to assist its ally Assad.

5) Iraq:
Iraq is a key ally to Iran, and ISIS is an existential threat to the Shia regime there. BUT airpower is extremely limited in efficacy, Iraq doesn't have a strong enough ground force to take ISIS on itself, the US won't allow the only other real enemy of ISIS (Iran) into Iraq en masse to defeat ISIS, and the other members of the anti-ISIS coalition see ISIS as to useful to destroy just yet

6) The US and the Western Allies:
This is where things get really fun. The West wants to defeat ISIS. But to do so would effectively hand Syria to Russia\ and Iraq to Iran, making a giant power block from Iran to Syria and Yemen to the south. So it wants to use Iraqi ground forces to force ISIS into Syria and let them fight it out in the Syrian civil war, while putting diplo pressure on Iraq to break its ties with Iran and try to isolate Iran diplomatically.

The key to defeating ISIS:

1) End the Syrian civil war 2) Bring about political reproachment in Iraq and Yemen 3) The powers in the area will crush ISIS in a day

Edit: All the above is an interpretation consistent with the theories of the school of realism in international relations. For more information about the realist school, read "The Man, the State, and War" by Kenneth Waltz, "Theory of International Politics," by Waltz again. For my favorite sub school, offensive realism, read "Tragedy of Great Power Politics" by John Mearsheimer.


I think some things are simplistic but is there anything grossly wrong with the interpretation?


Also love the SNL Spicer Press Conference.
There is no one like you in the universe.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
February 05 2017 19:54 GMT
#135538
I do'nt see anything obviously grossly wrong. it looks sound and well thought out.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
WolfintheSheep
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada14127 Posts
February 05 2017 20:05 GMT
#135539
Regardless of how hard it is to defeat ISIS, doesn't change that Trump thinks the problem is that 1) no one has thought about it, or 2) no one has given the planners a deadline to figure it out.
Average means I'm better than half of you.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
February 05 2017 20:14 GMT
#135540
On February 06 2017 00:26 TheTenthDoc wrote:
For reference, most metrics that I've seen have shown incoming illegal immigration from Mexico reaching a nadir in the past several years (here's one example from Pew). I think there's also some research showing that border-hopping is less and less of a problem compared to folks overstaying work visas.

I like where you're going with metrics and sources, they're real important. You may recall in 2014 the big surge of unaccompanied minors was from Central America, not Mexico. Growth or steady numbers in illegal immigration across the Mexican border includes growing Central American numbers, which are not themselves Mexican nationals. As much as Trump wants to say Mexicans it's not just Mexicans border hopping.

As an aside, Pew is right when it sees a leveled-off illegal immigrant population: the problem has been going for so long and the population is so large that deaths are balancing new arrivals. Naturally, children of illegals born here are granted birthright citizenship so the total population of illegal immigrant origin grows.

Last I saw, visa overstays were 40% of total illegal immigration numbers. But it's about time for me to refresh my numbers from last time I did extensive research for debates. I don't know if Trump will raise deportation numbers for lawbreaking immigrants overstaying their visas, because the public pressure and consciousness isn't as high.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
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