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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Tachion
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Canada8573 Posts
January 26 2017 21:43 GMT
#133121
On January 27 2017 06:16 xDaunt wrote:
From Scott Adams:

Show nested quote +
I’m having a fun time watching President Trump flood the news cycle with so many stories and outrages that no one can keep up. Here’s how the math of persuasion works in this situation:

1 outrage out of 3 headlines in a week: Bad Persuasion

25 outrages out of 25 headlines in a week: Excellent Persuasion

At the moment there are so many outrages, executive orders, protests, and controversies that none of them can get enough oxygen in our brains. I can’t obsess about problem X because the rest of the alphabet is coming at me at the same time.

When you encounter a situation that is working great except for one identifiable problem, you can focus on the problem and try to fix it. But if you have a dozen complaints at the same time, none of them looks special. The whole situation just looks confusing, and you don’t know where to start. So you wait and see what happens. Humans need contrast in order to make solid decisions that turn into action. Trump removed all of your contrast by providing multiple outrages of similar energy.

You’re probably seeing the best persuasion you will ever see from a new president. Instead of dribbling out one headline at a time, so the vultures and critics can focus their fire, Trump has flooded the playing field. You don’t know where to aim your outrage. He’s creating so many opportunities for disagreement that it’s mentally exhausting. Literally. He’s wearing down the critics, replacing their specific complaints with entire encyclopedias of complaints. And when Trump has created a hundred reasons to complain, do you know what impression will be left with the public?

He sure got a lot done.

Even if you don’t like it.

In only a few days, Trump has made us question what-the-hell every other president was doing during their first weeks in office. Were they even trying?


Source.

It's far easier to destroy than to create, and the only thing being created right now is a pipeline and the fucking wall. Whether he actually creates something better than what he has destroyed is the real test of if he can get shit done.
i was driving down the road this november eve and spotted a hitchhiker walking down the street. i pulled over and saw that it was only a tree. i uprooted it and put it in my trunk. do trees like marshmallow peeps? cause that's all i have and will have.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-26 21:51:50
January 26 2017 21:50 GMT
#133122
So I went and looked up the trade balance numbers between the US and Mexico. In 2014, the Mexican GDP was $1.29 trillion. Total Mexican exports were $400 billion. Of that figure, $291 billion is from exports to the United States. Mexico's next largest trading partner was Canada at $24.5 billion. US exports to Mexico totaled $194 billion. The bottom line is that Mexico is fucked if it even considers fighting Trump on paying for the wall or renegotiating NAFTA. Nieto better get his ass on a plane tomorrow and go suck Donald's balls.

Source.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
January 26 2017 21:52 GMT
#133123
On January 27 2017 06:50 xDaunt wrote:
So I went and looked up the trade balance numbers between the US and Mexico. In 2014, the Mexican GDP was $1.29 trillion. Total Mexican exports were $400 billion. Of that figure, $291 billion is from exports to the United States. Mexico's next largest trading partner was Canada at $24.5 billion. US exports to Mexico totaled $194 billion. The bottom line is that Mexico is fucked if it even considers fighting Trump on paying for the wall or renegotiating NAFTA. Nieto better get his ass on a plane tomorrow and go suck Donald's balls.

Source.

a lot of that is u.s. firms manufacturing in mexico. they will lobby trump to keep the value of their investment.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Thieving Magpie
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
United States6752 Posts
January 26 2017 21:54 GMT
#133124
American economies have ALWAYS hinged one a simple concept.

Geographical locations are anchored to a Primary Economic center, and the majority of the workforce come from service industries surrounding that economic center.

Back in the day, it was mines and factories creating economic centers. Now its tech companies. There has been ZERO change in the economic systems in America, people are just shocked that they have to move when economies shift.

You know who else figured that out? Immigrants moving whole countries to get opportunities in the US. If midwesterners can't even make adjustments within their own country while foreigners are making adjustments outside their own country--then their hardships are purely their own invention.
Hark, what baseball through yonder window breaks?
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
January 26 2017 21:55 GMT
#133125
On January 27 2017 06:52 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2017 06:50 xDaunt wrote:
So I went and looked up the trade balance numbers between the US and Mexico. In 2014, the Mexican GDP was $1.29 trillion. Total Mexican exports were $400 billion. Of that figure, $291 billion is from exports to the United States. Mexico's next largest trading partner was Canada at $24.5 billion. US exports to Mexico totaled $194 billion. The bottom line is that Mexico is fucked if it even considers fighting Trump on paying for the wall or renegotiating NAFTA. Nieto better get his ass on a plane tomorrow and go suck Donald's balls.

Source.

a lot of that is u.s. firms manufacturing in mexico. they will lobby trump to keep the value of their investment.

They'd be better off lobbying Nieto to pay for the wall. Trump is going to make Mexico pay for it one way or another.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24438 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-26 21:59:33
January 26 2017 21:56 GMT
#133126
On January 27 2017 06:50 xDaunt wrote:
So I went and looked up the trade balance numbers between the US and Mexico. In 2014, the Mexican GDP was $1.29 trillion. Total Mexican exports were $400 billion. Of that figure, $291 billion accounts for exports to the United States. Mexico's next largest trading partner was Canada at $24.5 billion. US exports to Mexico totaled $194 billion. The bottom line is that Mexico is fucked if it even considers fighting Trump on paying for the wall or renegotiating NAFTA. Nieto better get his ass on a plane tomorrow and go suck Donald's balls.

Source.


Until he points out how much of that is US companies exporting stuff from Mexico to the US.

You may have noticed that their number 1 export is automobiles? Can you name a Mexican auto manufacturer?

EDIT: Ninja'd

We all know from our conservative friends that price rolls downhill, Mexico won't be paying for anything, even by the plan they are putting forward it would be American consumers and companies paying for the wall (now and in the future) not Mexico.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
January 26 2017 21:58 GMT
#133127
On January 27 2017 06:56 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2017 06:50 xDaunt wrote:
So I went and looked up the trade balance numbers between the US and Mexico. In 2014, the Mexican GDP was $1.29 trillion. Total Mexican exports were $400 billion. Of that figure, $291 billion accounts for exports to the United States. Mexico's next largest trading partner was Canada at $24.5 billion. US exports to Mexico totaled $194 billion. The bottom line is that Mexico is fucked if it even considers fighting Trump on paying for the wall or renegotiating NAFTA. Nieto better get his ass on a plane tomorrow and go suck Donald's balls.

Source.


Until he points out how much of that is US companies exporting stuff from Mexico to the US.

You may have noticed that their number 1 export is automobiles? Can you name a Mexican auto manufacturer?

EDIT: Ninja'd

GM and Ford should sponsor the wall. Imagine the advertising opportunity!
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
January 26 2017 21:58 GMT
#133128
On January 27 2017 06:55 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2017 06:52 oneofthem wrote:
On January 27 2017 06:50 xDaunt wrote:
So I went and looked up the trade balance numbers between the US and Mexico. In 2014, the Mexican GDP was $1.29 trillion. Total Mexican exports were $400 billion. Of that figure, $291 billion is from exports to the United States. Mexico's next largest trading partner was Canada at $24.5 billion. US exports to Mexico totaled $194 billion. The bottom line is that Mexico is fucked if it even considers fighting Trump on paying for the wall or renegotiating NAFTA. Nieto better get his ass on a plane tomorrow and go suck Donald's balls.

Source.

a lot of that is u.s. firms manufacturing in mexico. they will lobby trump to keep the value of their investment.

They'd be better off lobbying Nieto to pay for the wall. Trump is going to make Mexico pay for it one way or another.

he should rather build trains in u.s. cities.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
January 26 2017 21:59 GMT
#133129
On January 27 2017 06:54 Thieving Magpie wrote:
American economies have ALWAYS hinged one a simple concept.

Geographical locations are anchored to a Primary Economic center, and the majority of the workforce come from service industries surrounding that economic center.

Back in the day, it was mines and factories creating economic centers. Now its tech companies. There has been ZERO change in the economic systems in America, people are just shocked that they have to move when economies shift.

You know who else figured that out? Immigrants moving whole countries to get opportunities in the US. If midwesterners can't even make adjustments within their own country while foreigners are making adjustments outside their own country--then their hardships are purely their own invention.

yea but there hasn't been much done to help the left behind communities.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
January 26 2017 22:00 GMT
#133130
On January 27 2017 06:50 xDaunt wrote:
So I went and looked up the trade balance numbers between the US and Mexico. In 2014, the Mexican GDP was $1.29 trillion. Total Mexican exports were $400 billion. Of that figure, $291 billion is from exports to the United States. Mexico's next largest trading partner was Canada at $24.5 billion. US exports to Mexico totaled $194 billion. The bottom line is that Mexico is fucked if it even considers fighting Trump on paying for the wall or renegotiating NAFTA. Nieto better get his ass on a plane tomorrow and go suck Donald's balls.

Source.


Interesting situation for Mexico. Supports the idea that having a single major trading partner is a terrible idea. You never know when someone will be elected and totally fucks you over.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-26 22:02:49
January 26 2017 22:02 GMT
#133131
On January 27 2017 06:58 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2017 06:55 xDaunt wrote:
On January 27 2017 06:52 oneofthem wrote:
On January 27 2017 06:50 xDaunt wrote:
So I went and looked up the trade balance numbers between the US and Mexico. In 2014, the Mexican GDP was $1.29 trillion. Total Mexican exports were $400 billion. Of that figure, $291 billion is from exports to the United States. Mexico's next largest trading partner was Canada at $24.5 billion. US exports to Mexico totaled $194 billion. The bottom line is that Mexico is fucked if it even considers fighting Trump on paying for the wall or renegotiating NAFTA. Nieto better get his ass on a plane tomorrow and go suck Donald's balls.

Source.

a lot of that is u.s. firms manufacturing in mexico. they will lobby trump to keep the value of their investment.

They'd be better off lobbying Nieto to pay for the wall. Trump is going to make Mexico pay for it one way or another.

he should rather build trains in u.s. cities.

I think he has some of that in his infrastructure plans already. But that's besides the point. Here's why Trump is going to win on this issue: which politician is stupid enough to openly fight for Mexican jobs? Historically, republicans might do it to cater to their corporate interests, but the immigration issue is taking an overriding precedence. Democrats can't afford to alienate their union base any further with Trump brazenly stealing it right from under their noses. The writing is on the wall, which is why so many companies are halting plans to expand in Mexico and are trying their damnedest to cozy up to Trump with America-first investment plans. This is all but a done deal as far as I am concerned.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
January 26 2017 22:05 GMT
#133132
Trump now says Mexico will pay via a simple trade tariff. Which is presumably supposed to just be a given in NAFTA renegotiation; it's not something separate where Mexico is paying for a wall. But several posts above xDaunt is chugging the Kool Aid of Nieto somehow giving in to make a payment for the wall because of US leverage. That's Trump's rally chant, it's not actual reality.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-26 22:08:36
January 26 2017 22:08 GMT
#133133
xDaunt you seem to be forgetting that the goods flowing into America from Mexico are also being consumed, you don't dump them into the river, so obviously punishing Mexico on the export side punishes American consumers on the import side. The US is free to start trade-wars left and right of course, but is that going to make Trump's core audience happy who actually relies on the stuff?
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18870 Posts
January 26 2017 22:08 GMT
#133134
When margarita night at the local tex-mex shit hole goes the way of the dodo, that Trump "stuck it" to Mexico will seem far less important, I assure you. The shock in consumer prices is going to quite a sight to see.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
January 26 2017 22:10 GMT
#133135
On January 27 2017 07:08 Nyxisto wrote:
xDaunt you seem to be forgetting that the goods flowing into America from Mexico are also being consumed, you don't dump them into the river, so obviously punishing Mexico on the export side punishes American consumers on the import side. The US is free to start trade-wars left and right of course, but is that going to make Trump's core audience happy who actually relies on the stuff?

I'm not forgetting anything. Of course trade wars have bilateral adverse effects, just as real wars do. But it's very clear which country has the superior firepower. Trump is smart to use it to the US's advantage.
Blisse
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada3710 Posts
January 26 2017 22:10 GMT
#133136
Why would you want a country next to you to destabilize anyways by screwing over their economy? You realize that just invites millions of migrants to continue to come over to America and evade a taxer paid wall that has no evidence of working in reality? The world isn't some zero sum game where only American wins America wins America wins.
There is no one like you in the universe.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
January 26 2017 22:10 GMT
#133137
On January 27 2017 07:02 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2017 06:58 oneofthem wrote:
On January 27 2017 06:55 xDaunt wrote:
On January 27 2017 06:52 oneofthem wrote:
On January 27 2017 06:50 xDaunt wrote:
So I went and looked up the trade balance numbers between the US and Mexico. In 2014, the Mexican GDP was $1.29 trillion. Total Mexican exports were $400 billion. Of that figure, $291 billion is from exports to the United States. Mexico's next largest trading partner was Canada at $24.5 billion. US exports to Mexico totaled $194 billion. The bottom line is that Mexico is fucked if it even considers fighting Trump on paying for the wall or renegotiating NAFTA. Nieto better get his ass on a plane tomorrow and go suck Donald's balls.

Source.

a lot of that is u.s. firms manufacturing in mexico. they will lobby trump to keep the value of their investment.

They'd be better off lobbying Nieto to pay for the wall. Trump is going to make Mexico pay for it one way or another.

he should rather build trains in u.s. cities.

I think he has some of that in his infrastructure plans already. But that's besides the point. Here's why Trump is going to win on this issue: which politician is stupid enough to openly fight for Mexican jobs? Historically, republicans might do it to cater to their corporate interests, but the immigration issue is taking an overriding precedence. Democrats can't afford to alienate their union base any further with Trump brazenly stealing it right from under their noses. The writing is on the wall, which is why so many companies are halting plans to expand in Mexico and are trying their damnedest to cozy up to Trump with America-first investment plans. This is all but a done deal as far as I am concerned.


there are some punitive threats trump could make upon mexico that exceeds the cost of the wall, but in practice the sum involved would not work.

some of these threats, such as a high tariff, would not be easy to walk back as simply good ideas on their own. if you threaten someone with a bomb, the other guy has to believe that you'll be able and willing to defuse the bomb once he pays the ransom. on this there is a high chance of trump just doing a bunch of anti-mexico policies regardless of whether they pay for anything.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
January 26 2017 22:13 GMT
#133138
On January 27 2017 07:10 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2017 07:02 xDaunt wrote:
On January 27 2017 06:58 oneofthem wrote:
On January 27 2017 06:55 xDaunt wrote:
On January 27 2017 06:52 oneofthem wrote:
On January 27 2017 06:50 xDaunt wrote:
So I went and looked up the trade balance numbers between the US and Mexico. In 2014, the Mexican GDP was $1.29 trillion. Total Mexican exports were $400 billion. Of that figure, $291 billion is from exports to the United States. Mexico's next largest trading partner was Canada at $24.5 billion. US exports to Mexico totaled $194 billion. The bottom line is that Mexico is fucked if it even considers fighting Trump on paying for the wall or renegotiating NAFTA. Nieto better get his ass on a plane tomorrow and go suck Donald's balls.

Source.

a lot of that is u.s. firms manufacturing in mexico. they will lobby trump to keep the value of their investment.

They'd be better off lobbying Nieto to pay for the wall. Trump is going to make Mexico pay for it one way or another.

he should rather build trains in u.s. cities.

I think he has some of that in his infrastructure plans already. But that's besides the point. Here's why Trump is going to win on this issue: which politician is stupid enough to openly fight for Mexican jobs? Historically, republicans might do it to cater to their corporate interests, but the immigration issue is taking an overriding precedence. Democrats can't afford to alienate their union base any further with Trump brazenly stealing it right from under their noses. The writing is on the wall, which is why so many companies are halting plans to expand in Mexico and are trying their damnedest to cozy up to Trump with America-first investment plans. This is all but a done deal as far as I am concerned.


there are some punitive threats trump could make upon mexico that exceeds the cost of the wall, but in practice the sum involved would not work.

some of these threats, such as a high tariff, would not be easy to walk back as simply good ideas on their own. if you threaten someone with a bomb, the other guy has to believe that you'll be able and willing to defuse the bomb once he pays the ransom. on this there is a high chance of trump just doing a bunch of anti-mexico policies regardless of whether they pay for anything.


That's baseless speculation. I bet that Trump will leave Mexico alone once he gets his wall and a renegotiation of NAFTA. There's no reason to believe otherwise.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
January 26 2017 22:13 GMT
#133139
On January 27 2017 07:08 farvacola wrote:
When margarita night at the local tex-mex shit hole goes the way of the dodo, that Trump "stuck it" to Mexico will seem far less important, I assure you. The shock in consumer prices is going to quite a sight to see.


well, i suppose we could always import more stuff from china, india and SEA? that seems to be where all the trump hats and ties come from.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
January 26 2017 22:15 GMT
#133140
On January 27 2017 07:08 farvacola wrote:
When margarita night at the local tex-mex shit hole goes the way of the dodo, that Trump "stuck it" to Mexico will seem far less important, I assure you. The shock in consumer prices is going to quite a sight to see.

as bad as anti-trade policy may be for the actual well-being of most americans, there isn't a clear political cost to taking that position on either the left or right.

it's also the case that the most inflation-vulnerable segment of the population, particularly fixed income groups in poor and elderly, is more or less separate from the most angry ones.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
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