EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 6658
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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Doodsmack
United States7224 Posts
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:13 xDaunt wrote: That's baseless speculation. I bet that Trump will leave Mexico alone once he gets his wall and a renegotiation of NAFTA. There's no reason to believe otherwise. it's not speculation, just analysis of a very basic fact about the situation, that mexico would have to believe trump would stop with the threatened moves once they comply. given how flux in peso exchange rate affects the mexican economy, a huge fiscal item that would produce crisis would have very high political cost domestically. it's not an easy step to take. | ||
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farvacola
United States18870 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:15 oneofthem wrote: as bad as anti-trade policy may be for the actual well-being of most americans, there isn't a clear political cost to taking that position on either the left or right. it's also the case that the most inflation-vulnerable segment of the population, particularly fixed income groups in poor and elderly, is more or less separate from the most angry ones. I disagree, rural areas that have had their local businesses replaced by chain-supply reliant big box stores are a breeding ground for Trumpism, and those places are gonna feel the bite of tariffs just as painfully as the poor and elderly. The trimmings of the pseudo-middle class lifestyle that underpin pro-Trump ideological demographics, like "prosperity gospel" folk for example, are going to quickly fade away should Trump continue on this path. | ||
mustaju
Estonia4505 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:10 xDaunt wrote: I'm not forgetting anything. Of course trade wars have bilateral adverse effects, just as real wars do. But it's very clear which country has the superior firepower. Trump is smart to use it to the US's advantage. And uneasy alliances become enemy combatants with just a single populist promise. This would have been considered insane just 2 years ago. I wonder how Mexicans on TL feel about this. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:20 farvacola wrote: I disagree, rural areas that have had their local businesses replaced by chain-supply reliant big box stores are a breeding ground for Trumpism, and those places are gonna feel the bite of tariffs just as painfully as the poor and elderly. The trimmings of the pseudo-middle class lifestyle that underpin pro-Trump ideological demographics, like "prosperity gospel" folk for example, are going to quickly fade away should Trump continue on this path. they'll be hit for sure, but most are rich enough to not be in as dire of a spot as say people on social security or welfare. plus, connecting the sticker shock with trump policies requires people to actually connect consequences and policies, and they are pretty bad at that. there are some easy to see targets for blame shifting. btw, the inflation shock would affect local sourced businesses as well, through both their supply and contracting demand because people are less wealthy with an inflation shock. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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Thieving Magpie
United States6752 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:21 mustaju wrote: And uneasy alliances become enemy combatants with just a single populist promise. This would have been considered insane just 2 years ago. I wonder how Mexicans on TL feel about this. Are you asking how Mexicans feel about american companies paying for a wall that doesn't affect Mexico? Are you asking how hurt americans will be to simply have a bigger reliance on big banks than they already do since no one pays for cars wholesale anyway--so the fact that it will be more expensive simply means an extra year or two on car payments? Are you asking how this trade deal does nothing but make Mexico laugh at how silly the US is? | ||
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Slaughter
United States20255 Posts
Why does a lot of Trump's America First policy seem like something the Chinese will love because it will drive people into their welcoming arms, effectively letting the US isolate itself economically while helping themselves. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:30 Slaughter wrote: Can't China sweep in and tell Mexico "its ok we can trade with you if those guys are being assholes" China would probably love backing Mexico here to piss off the US. Mexico could then just punish US manufacturing that is in Mexico and threaten to give China influence right on the US border, you know that thing they really try to prevent with NKorea? uh the big thing is access to u.s. market and mexico's geographic and infrastructure advantage. if china trades with mexico it would just be china building stuff in mexico in order to produce stuff to sell to the u.s. | ||
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Doodsmack
United States7224 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:25 oneofthem wrote: they'll be hit for sure, but most are rich enough to not be in as dire of a spot as say people on social security or welfare. plus, connecting the sticker shock with trump policies requires people to actually connect consequences and policies, and they are pretty bad at that. there are some easy to see targets for blame shifting. btw, the inflation shock would affect local sourced businesses as well, through both their supply and contracting demand because people are less wealthy with an inflation shock. Hopefully the cause and effect of tariffs causing retail prices to get hammered will be especially obvious to people. I mean retail is a huge part of people's daily lives. | ||
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Slaughter
United States20255 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:31 oneofthem wrote: uh the big thing is access to u.s. market and mexico's geographic and infrastructure advantage. if china trades with mexico it would just be china building stuff in mexico in order to produce stuff to sell to the u.s. I think both China and Mexico would be willing to take some losses to knock the US down a peg and make Trump look bad. Think of the optics if Mexico successfully blows off Trump AND Chinese have the appearances of making gains in the Americas. | ||
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Noidberg
United States17 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:21 mustaju wrote: And uneasy alliances become enemy combatants with just a single populist promise. This would have been considered insane just 2 years ago. I wonder how Mexicans on TL feel about this. Cartel funded president with a 12% approval rating refuses to work with Trump on immigration, drugs, gangs and now trade. The wall isnt racist, they being mexicos politicians are race baiting here. It will curb the cartels in their illegal crossings while being part of Trumps boarder protection policy. You should ask how the mexican people feel about having a president who does everything in his power to oppress them. | ||
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Blisse
Canada3710 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:30 Slaughter wrote: Can't China sweep in and tell Mexico "its ok we can trade with you if those guys are being assholes" China would probably love backing Mexico here to piss off the US. Mexico could then just punish US manufacturing that is in Mexico and threaten to give China influence right on the US border, you know that thing they really try to prevent with NKorea? Why does a lot of Trump's America First policy seem like something the Chinese will love because it will drive people into their welcoming arms, effectively letting the US isolate itself economically while helping themselves. So supposedly there is a general sentiment in the US that Russia's not the enemy anymore, but the US should be afraid of China. I'm parroting what the ex-Canadian PM said, so I'm not sure if that's a wide spread opinion? But if it were true then these policies are obviously in-line with what the people want from their government, as represented by Trump's positions on things. Still waiting for more information about the departures in the State Department (lol) http://mobile.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSKBN15A2AY Several senior State Department officials leave posts: officials The Trump administration has accepted the resignations of two top State Department officials effective on Friday, a step entirely within the new president's rights but an abrupt departure for the diplomats, officials said on Thursday. Under Secretary for Management Patrick Kennedy and acting Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas Countryman both plan to leave their posts by Friday, the officials said. Turnover is the rule, rather than the exception, among the top officials in the U.S. government when the White House changes hands from one party to another, in this case from Democrat Barack Obama to Republican Donald Trump. In his first week in office, Trump has illustrated stark policy differences from Obama on trade and immigration. On Monday, Trump formally withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and on Wednesday he ordered construction of a wall on the border with Mexico and threatened to punish U.S. cities shielding illegal immigrants. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
and to be frank, u.s. trade policy is too much driven by the agriculture lobby. there is probably a lot of political resentment vs NAFTA on the part of displaced mexican farmers etc. trump threats vs NAFTA may very well be embraced by mexico as well if a left-populist is in charge there. | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:31 oneofthem wrote: uh the big thing is access to u.s. market and mexico's geographic and infrastructure advantage. if china trades with mexico it would just be china building stuff in mexico in order to produce stuff to sell to the u.s. Correct, China isn't a viable alternative export market for Mexico. Hell, Mexico already runs huge deficits with China. I don't see China changing that. The bottom line is that Mexico has no alternative but to bend the knee and accept the incoming humiliation. | ||
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mustaju
Estonia4505 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:28 Thieving Magpie wrote: Are you asking how Mexicans feel about american companies paying for a wall that doesn't affect Mexico? Are you asking how hurt americans will be to simply have a bigger reliance on big banks than they already do since no one pays for cars wholesale anyway--so the fact that it will be more expensive simply means an extra year or two on car payments? Are you asking how this trade deal does nothing but make Mexico laugh at how silly the US is? I am asking how they feel about the antagonism against their national sovereignty having become main-stream. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:36 xDaunt wrote: Correct, China isn't a viable alternative export market for Mexico. Hell, Mexico already runs huge deficits with China. I don't see China changing that. The bottom line is that Mexico has no alternative but to bend the knee and accept the incoming humiliation. this is like china threatening a bernie sanders administration with stopping trade. the mexico bernie would welcome it. | ||
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Azuzu
United States340 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:13 xDaunt wrote: That's baseless speculation. I bet that Trump will leave Mexico alone once he gets his wall and a renegotiation of NAFTA. There's no reason to believe otherwise. So either way it's baseless speculation. However, as long as we're speculating: If the US really does have that much leverage and is willing to burn our relations with Mexico in order to spend it, why wouldn't the US push the advantage farther for additional gains? Our good will? When the first salvo is "pay for my countries symbolic monument of denunciation of your country", it hardly inspires confidence that they will be treated fairly under any circumstance. Like so many politicians in the past, Trump has convinced people someone else is to fault for their problems. What happens if/when distractions like the wall go up and the problems don't go away? I think it's a perfectly reasonable prediction to say further anti Mexico policies would be on the table. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24438 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:31 Doodsmack wrote: Hopefully the cause and effect of tariffs causing retail prices to get hammered will be especially obvious to people. I mean retail is a huge part of people's daily lives. The thing is the people we're talking about are the same ones that have been getting the idea that "If you raise taxes/costs to businesses, they just pass them on to the consumer" pounded into their heads for decades. So they're as primed as they could be. Of course, I've learned not to put anything out of the reach of the ignorance of "the many". | ||
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On_Slaught
United States12190 Posts
On January 27 2017 07:10 xDaunt wrote: I'm not forgetting anything. Of course trade wars have bilateral adverse effects, just as real wars do. But it's very clear which country has the superior firepower. Trump is smart to use it to the US's advantage. Smart? Risking damage to our economy just so somebody else funds Trump's vanity project? I think you're forgetting just how stupid and petty the basis of this argument is. For Mexico, it's an issue of national dignity. For Trump, considering the wall is to our benefit, not Mexicos, it's a matter of his ego that we don't just pay for it ourselves. You think that justifies damaging relationships and threatening a trade war? | ||
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