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United States43960 Posts
On October 28 2016 03:28 IgnE wrote:The Next Ten Years Will Be Ugly For Your 401kShow nested quote + Research Affiliates’ 10-year model, the report looks at the typical balanced portfolio of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds. An example would be the $29.6 billion Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX). For the decade ended Sept. 30, VBINX had an average annual performance of 6.6 percent, and that’s before inflation. Over the next decade, according to the report, “the ubiquitous 60/40 U.S. portfolio has a 0% probability of achieving a 5% or greater annualized real return.” Does this put a damper on your "how everyone can retire a millionaire" basic plan Kwark? or nah?
Not even slightly. Firstly, these reports come out daily and they always say different things. It's the 43,200 stopped clocks approach, have one for every second of the day (well, of the 12 hours) and just point at a different one whenever anyone asks what time it is. Nobody fucking knows. Secondly, typical balanced portfolio of 60/40 is neither typical nor balanced, those depend entirely on the circumstances of the individual investor. Thirdly, they're cherry picking dates here. They're using a start date of September 2006 to argue their point, does that not seem a little strange to you? Fourthly, 6.6% compounding, or even 5% compounding in real terms, is still a shitton of money. Fifthly, just as a simple exercise in compounding I ran a basic calculation.
If you work for 45 years and in the first year save $5,000, second year $6,000 and so forth (inflation adjusted) with 5% compounding growth then you end up with $3,092,503.90. You actually hit the inflation adjusted million dollar mark after just 30 years.
Sorry, but not only am I not even slightly worried by your cherry picked stopped clock but it actually illustrates my point, not yours. Your worst case scenario puts someone saving just $5,000 a year (with small annual increases) at over $3 million dollars.
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re: legal
I do have a minor quibble with it; in that it's a kludgey way of doing it. but that wasn't germane to the discussion so I wasn't going into it.
re: one
at a societal level it's insurance; the product you're buying from the company is no longer insurance. but as long as you get what I was trying to say, there's no real need to belabor the point.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
you should say it is not an insurance market anymore, but whatever.
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Just a reminder:
If your talking healthcarecosts, please stop talking about injuries, serious illness is where the big bucks go and they go way faster and longer than on injuries.
Im talking costs that can easily bankrupt "kwarkstyle" millionaires  .
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United States43960 Posts
If I get long term sick you can bet I'm flying back to the socialist paradise of my birth.
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On October 28 2016 03:50 KwarK wrote:
If I get long term sick you can bet I'm flying back to the socialist paradise of my birth.
Wait, why would you do that? I thought America was the envy of the world with their healthcare system and you'll die in the streets waiting for treatment in the UK
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I'm pretty sure all the EU countries that offer single payer or goverment healthcare are going to go bankruptcy any day now. That is what people told me in the 90s and it has to come true at some point.
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On October 28 2016 04:00 OuchyDathurts wrote:Show nested quote +On October 28 2016 03:50 KwarK wrote:
If I get long term sick you can bet I'm flying back to the socialist paradise of my birth. Wait, why would you do that? I thought America was the envy of the world with their healthcare system and you'll die in the streets waiting for treatment in the UK.
are you being sarcastic or serious? I'm not sure which, and my response would depend on which one.
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Obamacare is strictly worse than single payer socialized healthcare as far as I'm concerned, but it's a large step in the right direction and it's the only healthcare overhaul that had a chance of passing.
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Yeah, you wont have to worry about your premiums because the Republicans will finally repeal the ACA without having a replacement in place leaving the entirety of the US without healthcare.
No need to worry about healthcare costs without healthcare.
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On October 28 2016 04:06 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 28 2016 04:00 OuchyDathurts wrote:On October 28 2016 03:50 KwarK wrote:
If I get long term sick you can bet I'm flying back to the socialist paradise of my birth. Wait, why would you do that? I thought America was the envy of the world with their healthcare system and you'll die in the streets waiting for treatment in the UK. are you being sarcastic or serious? I'm not sure which, and my response would depend on which one.
Sarcastic. I forgot to include a winky face. Just parroting the typical lie as to why we should just put up with our garbage system.
How much weight has Trump put on so far? He's looking quite plump in that video. Also wtf is that smile when someone yells out "Bill Clinton is a rapist!"?
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Trump is a wizard and can magically fix things in goverment without ever having served in goverment. ISIS, healthcare, GDP, all will become amazingly good if you just give him power.
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is there some good write-up on what exactly is possible within the current legal framework of the US? Like could the federal government mandate compulsory insurance, how would this work in coordination with the individual states etc... ?
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is bucky the one that came in like last year to whine about how he was getting screwed by obamacare then someone explained to him that there were subsidies and that he could have saved thousands by literally just googling about it?
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United States43960 Posts
On October 28 2016 04:09 Plansix wrote:Trump is a wizard and can magically fix things in goverment without ever having served in goverment. ISIS, healthcare, GDP, all will become amazingly good if you just give him power.
You're forgetting that Trump has the Elephant of Surprise. People won't believe it.
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nyx ->
Well, the constitution itself doesn't take that long to read, but aside from that I can't think of any such writeups offhand.
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United States43960 Posts
On October 28 2016 04:13 ticklishmusic wrote:
is bucky the one that came in like last year to whine about how he was getting screwed by obamacare then someone explained to him that there were subsidies and that he could have saved thousands by literally just googling about it?
Good memory, it was him.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/general/383301-us-politics-mega-thread?page=2282#45633
He made <11k, his state refused the Medicaid expansion to cover him and he couldn't afford health insurance but chose to get it anyway. The reality is that if you earn <11k then you need the government to pay for your healthcare or just go without. Obama offered to pay for his healthcare but his state vetoed the Federal money.
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On October 28 2016 04:11 Nyxisto wrote:
is there some good write-up on what exactly is possible within the current legal framework of the US? Like could the federal government mandate compulsory insurance, how would this work in coordination with the individual states etc... ?
That is what the ACA is. And a few of the states are fighting it. Weirdly, these are the states that are also poor and have a lot of citizens that could use low cost insurance.
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On October 28 2016 04:14 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On October 28 2016 04:11 Nyxisto wrote:
is there some good write-up on what exactly is possible within the current legal framework of the US? Like could the federal government mandate compulsory insurance, how would this work in coordination with the individual states etc... ? That is what the ACA is. And a few of the states are fighting it. Weirdly, these are the states that are also poor and have a lot of citizens that could use low cost insurance.
Does compulsory insurance of ACA really extend to anybody? Isn't there still a lot of uninsured people? And is there actually legal ground to get well off people into public insurance?
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EPT
