|
Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On October 22 2016 00:49 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 00:41 LegalLord wrote: This topic involved into an impressive attempt at a dick-measuring contest by the usual suspects. The important thing is you found a way to feel superior to all Copying quotes to try to use as zingers certainly helps in that regard.
On October 22 2016 00:51 Adreme wrote: To help with Kwarks point the Russian economy is REALLY bad with a bad long term outlook. Any help Russia can get with these they NEED to take. Russia's economic problems are structural for the most part. As with many things, the 1990s played a large part in this.
|
On October 22 2016 00:51 Adreme wrote: To help with Kwarks point the Russian economy is REALLY bad with a bad long term outlook. Any help Russia can get with these they NEED to take.
I'm sure the sanctions are a good reason for them to look for help from the west.
|
On October 22 2016 00:54 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 00:49 Dan HH wrote:On October 22 2016 00:41 LegalLord wrote: This topic involved into an impressive attempt at a dick-measuring contest by the usual suspects. The important thing is you found a way to feel superior to all Copying quotes to try to use as zingers certainly helps in that regard. Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 00:51 Adreme wrote: To help with Kwarks point the Russian economy is REALLY bad with a bad long term outlook. Any help Russia can get with these they NEED to take. Russia's economic problems are structural for the most part. As with many things, the 1990s played a large part in this.
But if Russia really is in a shitty position and has no clear path to being in a better position, is the reason really that big a deal? They are hurting badly and needing something to pull themselves up.
|
United States41983 Posts
On October 22 2016 00:54 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 00:49 Dan HH wrote:On October 22 2016 00:41 LegalLord wrote: This topic involved into an impressive attempt at a dick-measuring contest by the usual suspects. The important thing is you found a way to feel superior to all Copying quotes to try to use as zingers certainly helps in that regard. Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 00:51 Adreme wrote: To help with Kwarks point the Russian economy is REALLY bad with a bad long term outlook. Any help Russia can get with these they NEED to take. Russia's economic problems are structural for the most part. As with many things, the 1990s played a large part in this. I'm curious what you mean by this. Russia's problems are varied, from demographic and health crises to an unaffordable military (3.1t rubles out of 13.7t ruble budget) to inefficient state run businesses receiving subsidies from the public purse to an overreliance on oil revenues to high wealth inequality and the emergence of a new aristocracy to vanity projects and countless others. I would not wish to have the job of fixing Russia.
|
War is a great way to get out of any kind of economical problem actually.
|
United States41983 Posts
On October 22 2016 01:03 WhiteDog wrote: War is a great way to get out of any kind of economical problem actually. Just ask the Germans. They look back on 1945 with fondness. There were no shortage of jobs for the young men that survived, particularly after you exclude those kept on Soviet public works projects for another decade. And so much rebuilding to be done.
|
On October 22 2016 01:04 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 01:03 WhiteDog wrote: War is a great way to get out of any kind of economical problem actually. Just ask the Germans. They look back on 1945 with fondness. The germans are a great exemple, their economy was blooming during the 2nd WW, because they completly dedicated their production towards war, and the population was willing to accept restrictions due to the war.
|
On October 22 2016 00:36 Rebs wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 00:34 TheTenthDoc wrote:On October 22 2016 00:32 WhiteDog wrote:3) Don't accept it, try to flaunt it, get slapped down like a bitch and do nothing about that. I'm eager to see the US slap Russia "like a bitch" ... On October 22 2016 00:31 zlefin wrote: kwark -> It seems more like they'd don't accept it, flaunt it, and know america isn't willing to shoot down russian planes over the syrian situation. Exactly. I mean, Russia has been having its allies and economic power steadily hacked away. We're pretty much already seeing them getting slapped like a bitch, but this way we don't pay in American blood. Dafuq you on about man, Duterte's got Russias back. No way Killary is gonna fuck with Russia now. They gonna go all Pacquiao on your asses.
we have mayweather tho
+ Show Spoiler +rip pacman 
|
United States41983 Posts
On October 22 2016 01:06 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 01:04 KwarK wrote:On October 22 2016 01:03 WhiteDog wrote: War is a great way to get out of any kind of economical problem actually. Just ask the Germans. They look back on 1945 with fondness. The germans are a great exemple, their economy was blooming during the 2nd WW, because they completly dedicated their production towards war, and the population was willing to accept restrictions due to the war. Yeah, this isn't true. Fortunately we actually have their war archives and we can read Speer's memos about how hard it was to do anything when they couldn't get rubber and had to manufacture all their petrochemicals from scratch with huge manpower shortages while facing a devastating bomber campaign that could obliterate entire industrial cities.
|
Internet down for many as massive cyber attack stops Reddit, Spotify, Twitter and other sites from working
A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack has taken down systems run by Dyn, Inc, one of the largest providers of internet services in the world. And as a result it seems to be causing problems for a variety of websites – including Reddit, Spotify and Twitter.
Dyn runs domain name servers or DNS. They work as a phone book or map to the internet, making sure that when someone writes an address into their computer or phone, it can be directed to the right place and show the right information.
As such, an attack on a DNS company can wreak havoc across large parts of the internet, stopping websites from loading. That is usually done through a DDoS attack, where the servers are hit with so many requests that they stop responding.
The attack is mainly hitting the East part of the US, according to Dyn, Inc. But because it is hitting the tools used to make websites load, it can cause problems across the world on various sites.
As well as the problem being generalised, some people in the same area might find that other people are able to get online, or that other devices are able to. That may be because of the way that DNS information is cached by some networks, meaning that it can still be accessed even if the servers themselves are down.
An update on Dyn's website read: “Starting at 11:10 UTC on October 21th-Friday 2016 we began monitoring and mitigating a DDoS attack against our Dyn Managed DNS infrastructure. Some customers may experience increased DNS query latency and delayed zone propagation during this time. Updates will be posted as information becomes available.”
It said that its engineers were working to mitigate the issue, and that it would post more information when it was clear what was going on.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/internet-down-not-working-reddit-spotify-twitter-websites-loading-issues-problems-a7373616.html
|
On October 22 2016 01:09 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 01:06 WhiteDog wrote:On October 22 2016 01:04 KwarK wrote:On October 22 2016 01:03 WhiteDog wrote: War is a great way to get out of any kind of economical problem actually. Just ask the Germans. They look back on 1945 with fondness. The germans are a great exemple, their economy was blooming during the 2nd WW, because they completly dedicated their production towards war, and the population was willing to accept restrictions due to the war. Yeah, this isn't true. Fortunately we actually have their war archives and we can read Speer's memos about how hard it was to do anything when they couldn't get rubber and had to manufacture all their petrochemicals from scratch with huge manpower shortages while facing a devastating bomber campaign that could obliterate entire industrial cities. You misunderstood my post : war does not increase your life condition, but it solve economical problem because A) people are employed B) people accept restrictions (to a certain extent) C) ressources are concentrated, and directed by the state, towards a few sector which makes them very productive (in terms of innovations for exemple).
|
On October 22 2016 00:47 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 00:41 a_flayer wrote:On October 21 2016 23:49 KwarK wrote: Dude. WW1 is super easy to explain. So you have about 150 years in which France and the United Kingdom are the strongest nations in the world and they basically take over most of the world. Then, right at the tail end of it, Germany suddenly appears as a superpower that eclipses either of them (was arguably the strongest nation in the world in 1900) in industrial production, population and military might. And they are robbed of their destiny by the UK and France and told they must content themselves to being a second rate imperial power and just having European influence. And so they flip the fuck out, say that it's total bullshit and go "fite me irl bitches". Dude. WW3 is super easy to explain. So you have about 50 years in which the US are the strongest nation in the world and basically takes it over. Then, right at the tail end of it, as other countries begin to build economic and industrial force to match it, there's an economic collapse in the US leading into instability... Their citizens feel that their dream is being destroyed, flip the fuck out and go "fite me irl bitches". I barely had to make any adjustments at all, and I don't think there's anything inaccurate about it either. Looking back and finding similarities is easy, though, and looking ahead is a lot more difficult. I'm sure you could have had discussions comparable to this while the events you described as leading up to WW1 were unfolding. We can try to make analogies to what happened in the past, but there's always issues that invalidate such analogies (like technological developments). I'm not saying it is inevitable or even "likely" (chance would need analysis to be expressed), but it's a realistic thing to be worried about in the upcoming few decades. Especially if the US continues in its persistence of their claim to be the only indispensable country in the world (which is what both Clinton and Trump seem to represent in my eyes). We're seeing more resistance to the US policies already, like that Duterte fellow in the Philippines. Do you really think that will be end of it in the next few decades? 50 years of the US being the strongest nation in the world by far was about 40 years ago now and I don't remember WW3, although I hadn't been born yet when you're predicting it having happened. Just saying. Furthermore the US hasn't taken over the world. It has economic interests all over the world but those can shift with the balance of power, and have been. China has gone from being a colony to a great power in its own right but rather than needing to explode out of constraints imposed upon it by external forces, as Germany tried to do, it can just buy influence and power in Africa using the exact same means that the US uses. The game is much more flexible now than it used to be. The end of the explicit spheres of interest system has allowed for continual adjustments to preserve the balance. The Philippines is actually an example of the solution, not the problem. If it were a US colony then it couldn't barter itself to the Chinese. But it is not so it can.
Sorry, I realized that I was potentially unclear and edited my post for clarity (and had in fact finished editing before you posted your reply). I had thought the second paragraph would have made it obvious where I was coming from. And 50 vs 90 years really doesn't matter for what I was trying to point out.
|
On October 21 2016 22:50 Thieving Magpie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2016 20:29 Ghostcom wrote:On October 21 2016 19:17 Biff The Understudy wrote:Republican nominee, 2008 Political opponents have a little trouble seeing the best in each other, but I have had a few glimpses of this man at his best. And I admire his great skill, energy, and determination. It’s not for nothing that he’s inspired so many folks in his own party and beyond.
Senator Obama talks about making history, and he’s made quite a bit of it already. There was a time, when the mere invitation of an African-American citizen to dine at the White House was taken as an outrage and insult in many quarters. Today, it’s a world away from the cruel and type of bigotry of that time and good riddance. I can’t wish my opponent luck, but I do wish him well. 2016 Hillary is so corrupt she got kicked off the Watergate Commission. How corrupt do you have to be to get kicked off the Watergate Commission? Pretty corrupt The drift of the GOP in a nutshell. Do you really, honestly, believe that the Dems are doing any better in the mudslinging department? US politics have been on a steady decline for quite a while now - and it takes two to tango. EDIT: Note, US isn't the only country suffering from this. Just look at the UK, Sweden, Germany, France, Denmark - maybe there is something in the air? 10 out of 10 generations believe that their government is in decline, and yet the world turns. 10 out of 10 people believe they are not malicious to others, and yet bad things happen.
Pretty sure the Greatest Generation didn't think it was in decline. But cool, guy.
|
On October 22 2016 01:06 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 01:04 KwarK wrote:On October 22 2016 01:03 WhiteDog wrote: War is a great way to get out of any kind of economical problem actually. Just ask the Germans. They look back on 1945 with fondness. The germans are a great exemple, their economy was blooming during the 2nd WW, because they completly dedicated their production towards war, and the population was willing to accept restrictions due to the war. Well, but all of that is made possible by borrowing a gigantic amount if money, which is problematic if all you invest in is weaponry.
War economy is keynesianism on steroid. The mechanism is the same except that instead of building some big fucking things (tm), you invest into planes, tanks and soldiers.
The thing is that, independantly of putting people to work, building big fucking things might be a better long term investment than bombing your neighbour. If Hitler had built a shitloads of dams, infrastructures and so on instead of invading soviet union, german economy would have benefited equally without costing dozens of millions of lives.
My point is that Russia pouring trillions in its military is a shit way to invest money even if it needs to invest into something in any case.
|
On October 22 2016 01:12 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 01:09 KwarK wrote:On October 22 2016 01:06 WhiteDog wrote:On October 22 2016 01:04 KwarK wrote:On October 22 2016 01:03 WhiteDog wrote: War is a great way to get out of any kind of economical problem actually. Just ask the Germans. They look back on 1945 with fondness. The germans are a great exemple, their economy was blooming during the 2nd WW, because they completly dedicated their production towards war, and the population was willing to accept restrictions due to the war. Yeah, this isn't true. Fortunately we actually have their war archives and we can read Speer's memos about how hard it was to do anything when they couldn't get rubber and had to manufacture all their petrochemicals from scratch with huge manpower shortages while facing a devastating bomber campaign that could obliterate entire industrial cities. You misunderstood my post : war does not increase your life condition, but it solve economical problem because A) people are employed B) people accept restrictions (to a certain extent). US, Russia and China are all at or close to what is considered full employment, if only Spain were still a global power you could start building your bunker
|
My point is that Russia pouring trillions in its military is a shit way to invest money even if it needs to invest into something in any case. But it permit Putin to keep complete control over the country despite the economical trouble. Way easier than creating job and increasing wages the right way. Wasn't Bush basically the same ? Relected due to war ?
On October 22 2016 01:17 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 01:12 WhiteDog wrote:On October 22 2016 01:09 KwarK wrote:On October 22 2016 01:06 WhiteDog wrote:On October 22 2016 01:04 KwarK wrote:On October 22 2016 01:03 WhiteDog wrote: War is a great way to get out of any kind of economical problem actually. Just ask the Germans. They look back on 1945 with fondness. The germans are a great exemple, their economy was blooming during the 2nd WW, because they completly dedicated their production towards war, and the population was willing to accept restrictions due to the war. Yeah, this isn't true. Fortunately we actually have their war archives and we can read Speer's memos about how hard it was to do anything when they couldn't get rubber and had to manufacture all their petrochemicals from scratch with huge manpower shortages while facing a devastating bomber campaign that could obliterate entire industrial cities. You misunderstood my post : war does not increase your life condition, but it solve economical problem because A) people are employed B) people accept restrictions (to a certain extent). US, Russia and China are all at or close to what is considered full employment, if only Spain were still a global power you could start building your bunker Well Russia has various problems : unemployment is low but inflation is high and their median income took a dive in the recent years.
|
United States41983 Posts
On October 22 2016 01:13 a_flayer wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 00:47 KwarK wrote:On October 22 2016 00:41 a_flayer wrote:On October 21 2016 23:49 KwarK wrote: Dude. WW1 is super easy to explain. So you have about 150 years in which France and the United Kingdom are the strongest nations in the world and they basically take over most of the world. Then, right at the tail end of it, Germany suddenly appears as a superpower that eclipses either of them (was arguably the strongest nation in the world in 1900) in industrial production, population and military might. And they are robbed of their destiny by the UK and France and told they must content themselves to being a second rate imperial power and just having European influence. And so they flip the fuck out, say that it's total bullshit and go "fite me irl bitches". Dude. WW3 is super easy to explain. So you have about 50 years in which the US are the strongest nation in the world and basically takes it over. Then, right at the tail end of it, as other countries begin to build economic and industrial force to match it, there's an economic collapse in the US leading into instability... Their citizens feel that their dream is being destroyed, flip the fuck out and go "fite me irl bitches". I barely had to make any adjustments at all, and I don't think there's anything inaccurate about it either. Looking back and finding similarities is easy, though, and looking ahead is a lot more difficult. I'm sure you could have had discussions comparable to this while the events you described as leading up to WW1 were unfolding. We can try to make analogies to what happened in the past, but there's always issues that invalidate such analogies (like technological developments). I'm not saying it is inevitable or even "likely" (chance would need analysis to be expressed), but it's a realistic thing to be worried about in the upcoming few decades. Especially if the US continues in its persistence of their claim to be the only indispensable country in the world (which is what both Clinton and Trump seem to represent in my eyes). We're seeing more resistance to the US policies already, like that Duterte fellow in the Philippines. Do you really think that will be end of it in the next few decades? 50 years of the US being the strongest nation in the world by far was about 40 years ago now and I don't remember WW3, although I hadn't been born yet when you're predicting it having happened. Just saying. Furthermore the US hasn't taken over the world. It has economic interests all over the world but those can shift with the balance of power, and have been. China has gone from being a colony to a great power in its own right but rather than needing to explode out of constraints imposed upon it by external forces, as Germany tried to do, it can just buy influence and power in Africa using the exact same means that the US uses. The game is much more flexible now than it used to be. The end of the explicit spheres of interest system has allowed for continual adjustments to preserve the balance. The Philippines is actually an example of the solution, not the problem. If it were a US colony then it couldn't barter itself to the Chinese. But it is not so it can. Sorry, I realized that I was potentially unclear and edited my post for clarity (and had in fact finished editing before you posted your reply). I had thought it would have been obvious from the second paragraph where I was coming from. And 50 vs 90 years really doesn't matter for what I was trying to point out. Your point remains wrong. The old system was very brittle, an obsolete power that was no longer as strong as it used to be did not shrink from its old lines but rather had them fracture and break. Likewise a new power was contained by those brittle shackles and would remain within them with pressure building and building until it exploded outwards. There will always be fluctuations in the primacy of various nations, that existed before and still exists now, as you identify. But the system that curtailed the national destinies of Germany and Japan and likewise would have led the Soviet Union on in a futile struggle to fight its own inevitable demise no longer exists. The United States has not sought to suppress the rise of China etc. Natural expansion and contraction, with a constant readjustment of relations between nations, has provided a vent where previously the pressures were kept within sealed brittle structures that exploded and imploded with catastrophic consequences.
|
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On October 22 2016 00:59 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 00:54 LegalLord wrote:On October 22 2016 00:49 Dan HH wrote:On October 22 2016 00:41 LegalLord wrote: This topic involved into an impressive attempt at a dick-measuring contest by the usual suspects. The important thing is you found a way to feel superior to all Copying quotes to try to use as zingers certainly helps in that regard. On October 22 2016 00:51 Adreme wrote: To help with Kwarks point the Russian economy is REALLY bad with a bad long term outlook. Any help Russia can get with these they NEED to take. Russia's economic problems are structural for the most part. As with many things, the 1990s played a large part in this. But if Russia really is in a shitty position and has no clear path to being in a better position, is the reason really that big a deal? They are hurting badly and needing something to pull themselves up. Simple answer is that your assessment isn't really correct.
Kwark: give me a few hours, I'll need to dig up the relevant sources in English since obviously a lot of those issues are mostly discussed in Russian. I'm a little busy right now but I'll answer you later today.
|
On October 22 2016 00:29 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2016 00:26 WhiteDog wrote: Do you understand the amount of ressources (and men) Russia used in order to make sure Assad get back into power ? Why would they accept a no fly zone on aleppo ? I don't understands it. Because their choices are 1) Accept it, say that you wanted it all along, be a part of it and get shit in return. 2) Don't accept it, say it's shit, do nothing about it, get nothing, be made to look like a bitch. 3) Don't accept it, try to flaunt it, get slapped down like a bitch and do nothing about that.
I agree war is unlikely to break out between US and Russia directly because of a no-fly zone, but imposing a unilateral NFZ would certainly raise tensions. What if Russia responds by pulling a Donetsk in the Baltic states?
Russia might miscalculate that NATO treaty obligations won't be invoked if its presence is sufficiently covert and I honestly don't know how NATO would respond to Russia inspiring "spontaneous demonstrations" and rioting in Estonia.
WWIII won't happen because the US or Russia decides out of the blue to declare war on the other, but it might happen as a result of Russia accidently crossing a line (consequently this is one of the reasons it's important that Trump not be our president - I trust that Clinton will be a lot clearer on where that line is than Trump would be). And keep in mind that Russia's current doctrine includes use of nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack.
Anyway, for these reasons I don't think Clinton would try to impose a unilateral NFZ. As she indicated, she would seek the consent of at least Russia, which she's not going to get for free.
|
Donald Trump has to deal with his much-criticized debate performance. His poor poll numbers. A national political director who has all but disappeared less than three weeks before the election. But behind the scenes there are ominous signs of even deeper problems. The candidate’s expenditures on legal fees have already caught the eye of campaign watchdogs, who say such unprecedented rates of spending suggest there are as-yet-unknown controversies bubbling beneath the surface of the businessman’s organization. The campaign financial disclosures for September, released Thursday night, seem only to reinforce those worries: The Trump campaign spent more than half a million dollars on lawyers in just one month. By way of comparison, Mitt Romney’s campaign spent just $1.15 million over the course of his entire 2012 presidential campaign. Trump’s spending on lawyers now tops $3 million. “Hard to say if any of these legal representations represents a serious problem for the campaign, since we don’t know the subject matter of each one,” campaign-finance lawyer Brett Kappel told The Daily Beast. “The overall level of spending on legal fees, however, remains extraordinarily high, indicating that there must be a great deal going on behind the scenes we don’t know about.” Trump’s legal fees would be astronomical for any conventional political candidate, but of course the Republican nominee has a knack for drawing controversy, and all the lawyers that entails. His charity has come into question after being improperly used for political purposes; and the campaign has experienced unprecedented turnover among senior staff, including the departures of managers Corey Lewandowski and Paul Manafort, former Trump delegate manager Ed Brookover, and communications aide Michael Caputo. But the legal nightmare may just be beginning. It was not until early October that a recording of Trump bragging about sexual assault was released, prompting a wave of accusers to step forward and allege sexual misconduct by the Republican nominee. Trump’s spending on lawyers has been distributed over a number of law firms. The fourth highest expenditure for legal spending, more than $55,000, went to an organization called Parliamentary Strategies LLC, which shares an office address with Harvey & Binnall PLLC. Jesse Binnall, a partner at the firm, is a parliamentarian who previously represented Dimitri Kesari, a former aide to Ron Paul’s 2012 presidential campaign. Kesari was sentenced to three months of house arrest and paid a $10,000 fine for a plot to pay for an endorsement ahead of that cycle’s Iowa caucuses. Over the course of September, Trump spent about $320,000 on his primary law firm, Jones Day. The campaign spent $34,000 more on New York law firm Larocca Hornik Rosen Greenberg & Blaha. It also paid more than $70,000 to Chicago’s Locke Lord LLP and $3,000 to Michael A. France Trust in Sarasota, Florida.
The Trump campaign also spent more than $21,000 on “research consulting” with O’Melveny and Myers, a prestigious law firm headquartered in California; and thousands more for lawyers at Belkin Burden Wenig & Goldman, as well as Bell, McAndrews & Hiltachk. With just a few weeks left until Election Day, the Trump campaign’s spending on lawyers portends a long road ahead for the Republican nominee—even as the campaign season winds down, his legal troubles may not.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/21/why-has-the-trump-campaign-spent-over-3-million-on-lawyers.html?via=desktop&source=twitter
|
|
|
|