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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:10 KwarK wrote: I hear xDaunt is still waiting for the pivot. I want to post a certain meme but I don't want to suffer the consequences again But some say one day the Donald will pivot and make America great again. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:02 KwarK wrote: This is bad logic and you should feel bad. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-any-precedent-for-a-trump-comeback/ They actually examined the exact claim you're trying to make. Their conclusion, no. Kwark, you didn't read my post and you should feel bad. I never claimed Trump has a chance of winning. Some claimed that it's amazing that Trump is polling so bad, he'd poll better if he didn't exist. I went to counter that argument by saying this is nothing out of the ordinary (the deficit Trump has), and elections with gaps this large are "common", and if he didn't exist he'd be doing worse, as seen my all the other candidates that did worse than him. At no point anywhere did I say Trump has any chance of winning. Actually I am tremendously critical (like thinking it's made by children bad) of 538 and the chances they give to Trump. Right now they give him around 12.5%... Or a 1/8 chance of winning. I know my history of bets here, and with these odds, the cost of the transaction would be more expensive, but literally the only way Trump can potentially win is if Hillary dies, and the odds of that happening in the next 20 days are smaller than that. 538 gave an explanation for their reasoning in using t-distribution instead of normal distribution, and tried to give it reasoning, but it doesn't reflect reality unfortunately. Imo anyone who gives Trump more than a 1-3% chance right now is crazy, and that only comes from Hillary dying, going to jail, etc. But if anyone wants to do bets of I pay you $20 if Trump wins, and you pay me $1 if Hillary wins, in whatever increments you want, I'd gladly take it (and can forward money to Kwark or something before all the fiwi betting memes start). What 538 is doing is like have a 4-sided die, but since in the past there's only been 2 tosses of the 6 sided die, the odds of getting a 4 are 50% and 6 are 50%. It's ridiculous. | ||
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Probe1
United States17920 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:08 ticklishmusic wrote: I thought it was a parody account but i's real I feel like a lot of Americans have thought this was a parody election but we keep waking up and these are our options. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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OuchyDathurts
United States4588 Posts
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Probe1
United States17920 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:25 Nyxisto wrote: Trump is like a toe nail infection,every time it comes back you're asking yourself why the hell it's so difficult to get rid off in this day and age. I'm glad that it finally looks like Hillary can sustain her lead, especially after this debate, but in a fair world she should be winning by 30%. From my perspective as an independent voter, she's not that great. In a fair world we wouldn't have either candidate. We deserve much better. But as it turned out this is what we have. And between a person I don't like and a person who I personally view as crazy I'm gonna vote for the one I dislike. At least I'm not scared of Clinton. Holy SHIT I still cannot believe he would not say he would honor the results of the election. That is ... I'm shocked beyond words by that. That's so goddamn threatening to my country that he should be shamed for the rest of his life for it. | ||
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WolfintheSheep
Canada14127 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:08 ticklishmusic wrote: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/347191326112112640 I thought it was a parody account but i's real Everyone thinks Trump could be baited by foreign leaders so easily. Even worse is the other side of a fragile ego, which is how much better it would be to stroke it a little so he'd start trying to kiss up to you. | ||
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OuchyDathurts
United States4588 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:35 Probe1 wrote: From my perspective as an independent voter, she's not that great. In a fair world we wouldn't have either candidate. We deserve much better. But as it turned out this is what we have. And between a person I don't like and a person who I personally view as crazy I'm gonna vote for the one I dislike. At least I'm not scared of Clinton. Holy SHIT I still cannot believe he would not say he would honor the results of the election. That is ... I'm shocked beyond words by that. That's so goddamn threatening to my country that he should be shamed for the rest of his life for it. This seems like the average sentiment, not only from independents but many Hillary voters as well. They don't like her, she's hard to like. She's hard to get amped up for at all. But nothing about Clinton scares them. She's more of the same, she's not crazy, she's very even keeled and stable, so much so people on the right call her a fucking robot. Trump is a wild card and you don't want a wild card to be the most powerful person planet earth has ever known. Even dems think she's shitty, but she's not nuts. The only sane choice is her which is unfortunate in a lot of ways. Which is to say nothing about the danger of his maybe I'll honor the results or maybe not rhetoric. On October 20 2016 14:39 WolfintheSheep wrote: Everyone thinks Trump could be baited by foreign leaders so easily. Even worse is the other side of a fragile ego, which is how much better it would be to stroke it a little so he'd start trying to kiss up to you. Exactly, Hillary shows how just with tiny jabs and sleights he loses his mind with rage. By the same token if you give him a wink and a smile he thinks your the greatest ever. You can play the man any way you want to play him and he'll fall for it every. single. time. Do I want to enrage him or butter him up? Choose your own Donald Trump adventure. | ||
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oBlade
United States6628 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Probe1
United States17920 Posts
I'm still having trouble even comprehending how someone could say that in front of the entire nation. On October 20 2016 14:42 OuchyDathurts wrote: This seems like the average sentiment, not only from independents but many Hillary voters as well. They don't like her, she's hard to like. She's hard to get amped up for at all. But nothing about Clinton scares them. She's more of the same, she's not crazy, she's very even keeled and stable, so much so people on the right call her a fucking robot. Trump is a wild card and you don't want a wild card to be the most powerful person planet earth has ever known. Even dems think she's shitty, but she's not nuts. The only sane choice is her which is unfortunate in a lot of ways. Which is to say nothing about the danger of his maybe I'll honor the results or maybe not rhetoric. Exactly, Hillary shows how just with tiny jabs and sleights he loses his mind with rage. By the same token if you give him a wink and a smile he thinks your the greatest ever. You can play the man any way you want to play him and he'll fall for it every. single. time. Do I want to enrage him or butter him up? Choose your own Donald Trump adventure. Yup pretty much spot on. I actually agree with a lot of her policies and ultimately, it's why I didn't give a third party a deeper consideration. I agree with her support for solar, expansion of health coverage, and foreign policy. I don't like her but I do think she has fair or agreeable positions. | ||
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Probe1
United States17920 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:55 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: https://twitter.com/michaelshure/status/788948270768873472 That can be true, I don't really have a solid opinion on it, but he was still demonstratably weaker than Clinton so even at his apparent best he's still not even as good as Clinton. | ||
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Blisse
Canada3710 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:55 Probe1 wrote: Someone has found the words I was looking for to describe what Trump did tonight Here on reddit. I'm still having trouble even comprehending how someone could say that in front of the entire nation. Thanks for the link. Also found this as a comment. Imagine Trump wins this year. Then he loses in 2020 but refuses to concede. This is literally how democracies end under authoritarian regimes. | ||
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Probe1
United States17920 Posts
We like to imagine "what if" for these crazy scenarios but we have our systems of power divided and although this has never been tested, our citizens and military are faithful to the country above the President. | ||
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ChristianS
United States3304 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:18 FiWiFaKi wrote: Kwark, you didn't read my post and you should feel bad. I never claimed Trump has a chance of winning. Some claimed that it's amazing that Trump is polling so bad, he'd poll better if he didn't exist. I went to counter that argument by saying this is nothing out of the ordinary (the deficit Trump has), and elections with gaps this large are "common", and if he didn't exist he'd be doing worse, as seen my all the other candidates that did worse than him. At no point anywhere did I say Trump has any chance of winning. Actually I am tremendously critical (like thinking it's made by children bad) of 538 and the chances they give to Trump. Right now they give him around 12.5%... Or a 1/8 chance of winning. I know my history of bets here, and with these odds, the cost of the transaction would be more expensive, but literally the only way Trump can potentially win is if Hillary dies, and the odds of that happening in the next 20 days are smaller than that. 538 gave an explanation for their reasoning in using t-distribution instead of normal distribution, and tried to give it reasoning, but it doesn't reflect reality unfortunately. Imo anyone who gives Trump more than a 1-3% chance right now is crazy, and that only comes from Hillary dying, going to jail, etc. But if anyone wants to do bets of I pay you $20 if Trump wins, and you pay me $1 if Hillary wins, in whatever increments you want, I'd gladly take it (and can forward money to Kwark or something before all the fiwi betting memes start). What 538 is doing is like have a 4-sided die, but since in the past there's only been 2 tosses of the 6 sided die, the odds of getting a 4 are 50% and 6 are 50%. It's ridiculous. But it's a poll aggregator. It can only tell you whatever information is in the polls. That means anything fairly recent (e.g. this debate) isn't factored in, and it has to account for possibilities that you and I might know are less plausible than the model could know. In a generic race a candidate could rebound, but the model doesn't know (like we do) that Trump is currently saddled with the titles "serial rapist" and "threat to democracy" and it'd be tough to wriggle out from under those in 3 weeks. I think it's also accounting for some of the possibilities a lot of poll-denying Trump supporters are touting, like that pollsters are incorrectly estimating turnout, or some other systematic bias is causing the polls to miss the mark a la Brexit. While the LA Times poll has some definite problems this year, the model doesn't know that, and as such, is accounting for the possibility that the LA Times poll is the real deal and the other polls are off. In short, you're not exactly wrong about the shortcomings of the model, you're just expecting too much from a poll aggregator. I've thought before that 538 maybe shouldn't display the state of the race as a percentage chance to win, since their model can't necessarily claim to know that with much certainty, but on the other hand the percentage is more useful than, say, a straight "point lead" because depending on certain circumstances a 5 point lead might be more or less stable. I think it's best not to take 538's chance to win at face value (as in, don't base your betting odds on it). Rather, take it as a good at-a-glance metric of how the race is going, such that whoever it says is ahead is probably ahead, and if its chances go up or down, that indicates the race shifted. | ||
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JW_DTLA
242 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:52 oBlade wrote: https://twitter.com/LouDobbs/status/788946607693717506 Appeals to hypocrisy won't stop the international and national headlines condemning Trump for his ever-so-meme-able "I'll Keep You in Suspense, Okay?" Trump flubbed his only possible chance to come back with that nonsense. | ||
Jibba
United States22883 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:42 OuchyDathurts wrote: Exactly, Hillary shows how just with tiny jabs and sleights he loses his mind with rage. By the same token if you give him a wink and a smile he thinks your the greatest ever. You can play the man any way you want to play him and he'll fall for it every. single. time. Do I want to enrage him or butter him up? Choose your own Donald Trump adventure. It was brought up by a Democratic staffer on BBC radio that Trump will always respond to the last thing he hears. If you go through the debates, you can see Hillary baiting him time and time again with this. Tonight it was with Putin. She would slip in a Putin line at the end of her statement, and then he's spend most of his answer talking about Russia. It was incredible how easily she lured him around. He has very little presence of mind. | ||
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Jibba
United States22883 Posts
On October 20 2016 15:08 JW_DTLA wrote: Appeals to hypocrisy won't stop the international and national headlines condemning Trump for his ever-so-meme-able "I'll Keep You in Suspense, Okay?" Trump flubbed his only possible chance to come back with that nonsense. It was also an entirely different situation, and Lou Dobbs is another old time blow hard who needs to pass away already. He's already been forgotten from his CNN days. | ||
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OuchyDathurts
United States4588 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:52 oBlade wrote: https://twitter.com/LouDobbs/status/788946607693717506 Are you being real right now? Bush also refused by that logic. Florida went to Bush by 500 votes FIVE HUNDRED. Of course neither person was going to concede until the recount was done. You'd have to be insane to throw in the towel if things are that close until the final ruling was in. If Florida went to Gore by 500 votes and Bush wanted to wait for the final tally to give up no sane person would hold that against him either. But once it was all said and done Gore conceded the election like a man. Something Donald has no idea how to do. Neither Gore nor Bush said things were rigged or cried like a loser months before the election. | ||
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showstealer1829
Australia3123 Posts
On October 20 2016 14:52 oBlade wrote: https://twitter.com/LouDobbs/status/788946607693717506 The difference of course being that state law mandated a recount in Florida which as I recall Bush went to the Supreme Court to stop. Trump is just not going to accept his brains getting kicked in. | ||
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