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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5544

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
October 13 2016 14:10 GMT
#110861
On October 13 2016 23:02 Nevuk wrote:
[image loading]

I am looking forward to the “Come at me bro” response from the Times.

Remember when papers reported on Bill Clinton’s problem with women. Remember when he threatened to sue them in an effort to silence them. Remember when Fox News had endless talking heads demanding Obama provide his birth certificate and Obama threatened to sue them.

Yeah….
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
October 13 2016 14:10 GMT
#110862
On October 13 2016 13:12 Mohdoo wrote:
Honestly, I'm not seeing why I should believe these women like the one on the plane. How do you prove something like that? How am I supposed to believe something that can't be proven? Jes got a history, but I can't pretend it doesn't make sense for people to make this up. Wouldn't be the first time political sex lies have come up.

indeed, it's a difficult call.
from my vague recollection of things to look for: the victim having outcried to someone else at the time, especially medical visits (which iirc what trump is accused of, wouldn't be applicable); consistency of a pattern of conduct (though a bit hard since they're all coming forward now); I think there's some stuff about how they describe the incident which can be indicative (unless they've had very expert coaching).
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
October 13 2016 14:10 GMT
#110863
On October 13 2016 23:03 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2016 22:13 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Clinton apparently also noticed that the only prominent european politician that openly campaigns for Trump is also a racist bigoted scum.


To come back to our favourite discussion, isn't it a bit rich from Trump to claim that he will jail Clinton while he stands by Assad and Putin. I mean, seriously.

Like/Dislike ratio says it all.
No-one is listening to Clinton and that establishment line anymore dude.

(I tell myself I shouldn't even reply to this one, but...) when Trump supporters brigade and/or bot every online poll it's unsurprising and not really indicative of anything that likes/dislikes on Youtube videos favour Trump as well.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 13 2016 14:11 GMT
#110864
Hooray!

Maricela Flores, a 43-year-old immigrant from Mexico, was so unhappy at her job as a janitor at a Target store just outside Minneapolis – unhappy about having to work seven days a week, about being paid $8 an hour, about not having health coverage or paid sick days – that she did something unusually risky. She went on strike even though she was not part of a labor union.

When Flores, a mother of five, walked out in February of 2013, she was one of just eight janitors from stores in the Twin Cities to go on strike that day to demand better conditions. Flores was relieved not to get fired.

Now, 44 months later and after a highly unorthodox organizing drive that included six more one-day strikes, Flores and other janitors who clean Target, Macy’s and Best Buy stores in the Twin Cities are declaring victory. On Thursday, they will announce that 600 janitors have won union recognition and will soon start collective bargaining in the hope of winning higher pay, health coverage and other improvements.

“I could have done nothing, but I chose to fight,” Flores said. “This has been a long fight, but now I feel overjoyed. All the hard work has paid off.”

Flores hopes that her new union, Local 26 of the Service Employees International Union, will bring important gains when it bargains with the retailers’ cleaning contractors. “We want fair work scheduling, health insurance, higher wages,” Flores said in Spanish. “All these things would allow me to be more involved in the daily lives of my children and to have a better quality of life.”

This fight began seven years ago when an immigrant workers’ center in Minneapolis – Centro Trabajadores Unidos en Lucha (United Workers Center in Struggle) – contacted janitors at retail stores in the Twin Cities area. That workers’ center, known as CTUL, formed an organizing committee, led a three-mile protest march, held a 12-day hunger strike and sponsored a series of steadily expanding one-day strikes, which aimed to pressure retail powerhouses like Target and Best Buy, both based in the Twin Cities, to give the janitors a voice at work.

The effort grew more ambitious, with its focus turning towards getting Target to adopt a Responsible Contractor Policy. Target adopted such a policy in 2014, requiring its contractors to comply with labor and wage laws, and the janitors’ focus then changed to forming a labor union, convinced that this was the best way to win better conditions.

Labor experts say this is probably the most successful effort to unionize retail store janitors in the US. “The retail janitorial industry has been overwhelmingly non-union – it was viewed by most people as ‘unorganizable,’” said Stephen Lerner, the former head of the SEIU’s Justice for Janitors Campaign, which unionized tens of thousands of office building janitors nationwide.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Dan HH
Profile Joined July 2012
Romania9129 Posts
October 13 2016 14:22 GMT
#110865
On October 13 2016 23:03 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2016 22:13 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Clinton apparently also noticed that the only prominent european politician that openly campaigns for Trump is also a racist bigoted scum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OefZJvlfM_I
To come back to our favourite discussion, isn't it a bit rich from Trump to claim that he will jail Clinton while he stands by Assad and Putin. I mean, seriously.

Like/Dislike ratio says it all.
No-one is listening to Clinton and that establishment line anymore dude.

Indeed, the_diddlers decide what is right or wrong, true or false by pressing thumbs and arrows on the internet
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23298 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-13 14:25:42
October 13 2016 14:24 GMT
#110866
On October 13 2016 23:11 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Hooray!

Show nested quote +
Maricela Flores, a 43-year-old immigrant from Mexico, was so unhappy at her job as a janitor at a Target store just outside Minneapolis – unhappy about having to work seven days a week, about being paid $8 an hour, about not having health coverage or paid sick days – that she did something unusually risky. She went on strike even though she was not part of a labor union.

When Flores, a mother of five, walked out in February of 2013, she was one of just eight janitors from stores in the Twin Cities to go on strike that day to demand better conditions. Flores was relieved not to get fired.

Now, 44 months later and after a highly unorthodox organizing drive that included six more one-day strikes, Flores and other janitors who clean Target, Macy’s and Best Buy stores in the Twin Cities are declaring victory. On Thursday, they will announce that 600 janitors have won union recognition and will soon start collective bargaining in the hope of winning higher pay, health coverage and other improvements.

“I could have done nothing, but I chose to fight,” Flores said. “This has been a long fight, but now I feel overjoyed. All the hard work has paid off.”

Flores hopes that her new union, Local 26 of the Service Employees International Union, will bring important gains when it bargains with the retailers’ cleaning contractors. “We want fair work scheduling, health insurance, higher wages,” Flores said in Spanish. “All these things would allow me to be more involved in the daily lives of my children and to have a better quality of life.”

This fight began seven years ago when an immigrant workers’ center in Minneapolis – Centro Trabajadores Unidos en Lucha (United Workers Center in Struggle) – contacted janitors at retail stores in the Twin Cities area. That workers’ center, known as CTUL, formed an organizing committee, led a three-mile protest march, held a 12-day hunger strike and sponsored a series of steadily expanding one-day strikes, which aimed to pressure retail powerhouses like Target and Best Buy, both based in the Twin Cities, to give the janitors a voice at work.

The effort grew more ambitious, with its focus turning towards getting Target to adopt a Responsible Contractor Policy. Target adopted such a policy in 2014, requiring its contractors to comply with labor and wage laws, and the janitors’ focus then changed to forming a labor union, convinced that this was the best way to win better conditions.

Labor experts say this is probably the most successful effort to unionize retail store janitors in the US. “The retail janitorial industry has been overwhelmingly non-union – it was viewed by most people as ‘unorganizable,’” said Stephen Lerner, the former head of the SEIU’s Justice for Janitors Campaign, which unionized tens of thousands of office building janitors nationwide.


Source


Damn, it's almost like a handful of people standing up against seemingly insurmountable odds can get stuff done. Lucky for me I've been thoroughly disabused of such a ridiculous notion. The real way to win is to choose between Best Buy and Target depending on which abuses you less.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42978 Posts
October 13 2016 14:27 GMT
#110867
On October 13 2016 21:54 Plansix wrote:
Although the situation in Libya is less than ideal, I have not heard convincing argument that an absence of intervention would have resulted in a better outcome.

The intervention was primarily led by the British and French. French because they've always had a bit of an obsession with North Africa and the British because Blair got us into bed with Gaddafi and we wanted to tidy up. The US was just chilling.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-13 14:44:22
October 13 2016 14:29 GMT
#110868
On October 13 2016 23:07 Plansix wrote:
The decision to not bomb oil tankers due to environmental concerns is completely valid. This isn’t some tree hugging, save the endangered turtle level environmental concern. Attacking those oil tankers would do long term damage to the region, likely well beyond the current conflict. It would damage the eco system, which humans in the area use to feed themselves. There would be no way to clean up the spilled oil due to the conflict. Long term, it could great a depressed region in Syria for decades beyond.

And it’s not like the oil is going to stay in the ocean around Syria.

Alright, so there are way too many Infowars and shitty blogs on this issue without enough serious and level-headed discussion on this issue. The only real sources I could find would be something like this short statement about why the US hits oil trucks but not oil wells.

Hitting oil trucks really isn't a big deal. Oil on dry land is actually one of the more benign chemical hazards that have to be dealt with, and oil truckers being damaged happens all the time in the general operation of tankers around the world. Oil burns well (no shit) and it is rather biodegradable, so as far as hazards go it is generally pretty straightforward to deal with. Something like sewage water is actually generally a more annoying hazard from an environmental response perspective.

Oil wells are a bigger issue, for multiple reasons. One is if they're in the water, it can be an environmental catastrophe (see: Deepwater Horizons spill). Two, there's a lot more oil in the oil wells than in the tankers shipping the oil out. Three, it damages the oil infrastructure and people are hesitant to bomb something they are going to want to use later on. Ultimately though, it's probably a better decision to go ahead and bomb those oil wells since it really hurts ISIS' ability to fight and the environmental issues in Syria get far worse from the continuation of war than from the bombing of oil wells on dry land.

The issues probably have more to do with that the oil they sell is actually something that other countries want, because the environmental argument isn't strong - it sounds like a joke and the case for it isn't strong. AFAIK Russia accused Turkey of secret dealings involving buying ISIS oil (in the wake of Turkey shooting down a Russian plane); events like that may make it very difficult to bomb those tankers and oil wells without pissing someone off.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 13 2016 14:34 GMT
#110869
Speaker Paul Ryan told top donors on Wednesday evening that he’s growing concerned about whether House Republicans will be able to weather the political storm this November — and suggested the outcome for his party could be dire.

During a conference call, Ryan said he believed that House Republicans had taken a serious hit amid Donald Trump’s freefall following release of the now-infamous "Access Hollywood" video, according to a person who was on the call. Ryan noted that Republicans lost more than 20 seats in 2008, when John McCain lost to Barack Obama by seven percentage points. By comparison, Ryan pointed out grimly, Trump is trailing by around 10 percent nationally.

"Speaker Ryan holds routine calls with top supporters, top grassroots organizers, and many others. This is an opportunity to discuss our efforts to win in November," said Zack Roday, a Ryan spokesman.

Ryan's comments came as new stories were breaking in the New York Times, Palm Beach Post and Rolling Stone alleging that Trump improperly touched four women in separate incidents going back decades. The Trump campaign denied the allegations and has threatened to sue at least one of the publications, yet the controversy over Trump's sexual interactions with women — and his vulgar comments about them — has dominated the presidential race for the last five days, led to a collapse in his poll numbers, and threatens to sweep away the House and Senate GOP majorities.

Trump is furious that Ryan told his House GOP colleagues in a Monday call that he will no longer defend the Republican presidential nominee or campaign with Trump. During that discussion, Ryan — who is still endorsing Trump — added that members should worry about their own races, not the presidential battle.

Wednesday evening, according to the participant, Ryan sought to clarify his earlier remarks on Trump. Ryan told that he had never intended to pick a fight with Trump, but rather to simply highlight the need to maintain the party’s hold on the chamber. For his members to survive, Ryan said on the call, they would need Trump to do well in November.

But Ryan also had tough words for Trump. The speaker said that the media was set on driving a wedge between Trump the congressional wing of the party, but that Trump — whom Ryan described as lacking political discipline — had failed to understand that dynamic.

Ryan is aware that Trump's troubles have put the House in play. Democrats must net 30 seats in order to capture the majority, a tall order but one that’s become less unrealistic as Trump craters.

Ryan also said on the call that he would be appearing with College Republicans on Friday, when he would be laying out a case against Hillary Clinton. Ryan was joined on the call by Spencer Zwick, his top fundraiser and a top ally of Mitt Romney.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7904 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-13 14:40:42
October 13 2016 14:40 GMT
#110870
On October 13 2016 23:03 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2016 22:13 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Clinton apparently also noticed that the only prominent european politician that openly campaigns for Trump is also a racist bigoted scum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OefZJvlfM_I
To come back to our favourite discussion, isn't it a bit rich from Trump to claim that he will jail Clinton while he stands by Assad and Putin. I mean, seriously.

Like/Dislike ratio says it all.
No-one is listening to Clinton and that establishment line anymore dude.

If youtube comment sections (aka the arsehole of the internets) elected presidents we sure would have Trump. Or Mussolini 2.

Apparently you make a dichotomy in life between the establishment on one side and the c*nts on the other. Is there anyone who is anti establishment in your book that is not a complete fascist or is "anti-establishment" the newspeak term for "jerk"?
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
October 13 2016 14:57 GMT
#110871
On October 13 2016 23:10 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2016 23:02 Nevuk wrote:
[image loading]

I am looking forward to the “Come at me bro” response from the Times.

Remember when papers reported on Bill Clinton’s problem with women. Remember when he threatened to sue them in an effort to silence them. Remember when Fox News had endless talking heads demanding Obama provide his birth certificate and Obama threatened to sue them.

Yeah….


This doesn't look like a lawsuit, it looks more like complaining under a letterhead. But hey, when your client is paying you a few hundred bucks an hour you don't question him too much.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42978 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-13 15:09:54
October 13 2016 14:58 GMT
#110872
So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1.

I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red).

This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes.

+ Show Spoiler [electoral math] +

Texas - 38 - Total so far 38
Georgia - 16 - 54
Indiana - 11 - 65
Tennessee - 11 - 76
Missouri - 10 - 86
South Carolina - 9 - 95
Alabama - 9 - 104
Kentucky - 8 - 112
Louisiana - 8 - 120
Oklahoma - 7 - 127
Arkansas - 6 - 133
Utah - 6 - 139
Kansas - 6 - 145
Mississippi - 6 - 151
West Virginia - 5 - 156
Nebraska - 5 - 161
Idaho - 4 - 165
Montana - 3 - 168
Wyoming - 3 - 171
North Dakota - 3 - 174
South Dakota - 3 - 177
Alaska - 3 - 180

That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool

Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
North Carolina - 15
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Iowa - 6
Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote)

Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves.
+ Show Spoiler [best case scenario for Trump, 6/6 comp…] +
http://www.270towin.com/maps/W3Krg


Conclusion in case anyone didn't bother to read. If we give Trump all 6 of the competitive states he wants, even though he's behind in all 6 of them today, and we give him the Maine vote, he'll get 266 electoral college votes. To win at this point he'd also have to flip a Clinton safe state, like New Hampshire.
Trump needs to win 7 out of 6 competitive races to win the Presidency.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
October 13 2016 15:03 GMT
#110873
Turning Arizona into a "competitive" state is truly an achievement for the ages.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-13 15:04:30
October 13 2016 15:03 GMT
#110874
The race to build the world's largest solar power plant is heating up. California-based energy company SolarReserve announced plans for a massive concentrated solar power (CSP) plant in Nevada that claims to be the largest of its kind once built.

SolarReserve CEO Kevin Smith told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that the $5 billion endeavor would generate between 1,500 and 2,000 megawatts of power, enough to power about 1 million homes. That amount of power is as much as a nuclear power plant, or the 2,000-megawatt Hoover Dam and far bigger than any other existing solar facility on Earth, the Review-Journal pointed out.

"It's a big project," Smith told the publication. "It's an ambitious project."

SolarReserve's Sandstone project involves at least 100,000 mirrored heliostats that capture the sun's rays and concentrates it onto 10 towers equipped with a molten salt energy storage system. The molten salt, heated to more than 1,000 degrees, then boils water and creates a steam turbine that can drive generators 24/7.

Compared to photovoltaic arrays, the appeal of CSP systems is that solar power can be used after sunset.

"It's really the ability to provide renewable energy that's available on demand 24 hours a day," Smith told NPR.
SolarReserve already operates a CSP plant near Tonopah, a revolutionary 110-megawatt Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Plant that's now powering Nevada homes. The company says on its website that this "completely emission free" CSP plant runs without the requirement for natural gas or oil back up.

"Energy storage provides a firm, reliable electricity product on-demand, day and night," SolarReserve says, adding that the plant "helps meet growing demand for clean, renewable energy sources."
Smith told the Review-Journal that Sandstone construction probably won't begin for another two or three years. Once construction begins, Smith estimated the project should create about 3,000 jobs for about seven years.

He said the company will also have to build a new transmission infrastructure to carry the energy to market, and the generated power will likely will be "exported to the California market."

SolarReserve is narrowing down project sites for its 6,500-hectare project. Smith said two potential sites on federal land in Nye County have been shortlisted. However, as NPR reported, environmentalists such as Solar Done Right's Janine Blaeloch are concerned about the environmental impact of such a project.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
October 13 2016 15:05 GMT
#110875
On October 13 2016 23:57 ticklishmusic wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2016 23:10 Plansix wrote:
On October 13 2016 23:02 Nevuk wrote:
[image loading]

I am looking forward to the “Come at me bro” response from the Times.

Remember when papers reported on Bill Clinton’s problem with women. Remember when he threatened to sue them in an effort to silence them. Remember when Fox News had endless talking heads demanding Obama provide his birth certificate and Obama threatened to sue them.

Yeah….


This doesn't look like a lawsuit, it looks more like complaining under a letterhead. But hey, when your client is paying you a few hundred bucks an hour you don't question him too much.

It is the first phase of a lawsuit. First Trump needs to challenge the claim, demand Times remove them and give the Times a reasonable period of time to do so. Then he files.

Of course, that means he can be compelled to testify and have to respond to every single claim made against him back to his first marriage and before. And his family as well.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-13 15:08:39
October 13 2016 15:06 GMT
#110876
On October 13 2016 23:58 KwarK wrote:
So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1.

I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red).

This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes.

+ Show Spoiler [electoral math] +

Texas - 38 - Total so far 38
Georgia - 16 - 54
Indiana - 11 - 65
Tennessee - 11 - 76
Missouri - 10 - 86
South Carolina - 9 - 95
Alabama - 9 - 104
Kentucky - 8 - 112
Louisiana - 8 - 120
Oklahoma - 7 - 127
Arkansas - 6 - 133
Utah - 6 - 139
Kansas - 6 - 145
Mississippi - 6 - 151
West Virginia - 5 - 156
Nebraska - 5 - 161
Idaho - 4 - 165
Montana - 3 - 168
Wyoming - 3 - 171
North Dakota - 3 - 174
South Dakota - 3 - 177
Alaska - 3 - 180

That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool

Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
North Carolina - 15
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Iowa - 6
Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote)

Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves.



That single Florida field office he has is about to become very busy I guess.

Also Utah isn't even a lock for Trump at this point. The polling there is sparse, but the Oct 10/11th polls had it at a tie (3rd party candidates are taking a huge chunk of the share there).
Logo
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
October 13 2016 15:07 GMT
#110877
On October 13 2016 23:58 KwarK wrote:
So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1.

I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red).

This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes.

+ Show Spoiler [electoral math] +

Texas - 38 - Total so far 38
Georgia - 16 - 54
Indiana - 11 - 65
Tennessee - 11 - 76
Missouri - 10 - 86
South Carolina - 9 - 95
Alabama - 9 - 104
Kentucky - 8 - 112
Louisiana - 8 - 120
Oklahoma - 7 - 127
Arkansas - 6 - 133
Utah - 6 - 139
Kansas - 6 - 145
Mississippi - 6 - 151
West Virginia - 5 - 156
Nebraska - 5 - 161
Idaho - 4 - 165
Montana - 3 - 168
Wyoming - 3 - 171
North Dakota - 3 - 174
South Dakota - 3 - 177
Alaska - 3 - 180

That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool

Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
North Carolina - 15
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Iowa - 6
Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote)

Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves.


I think he really is going all in on some sort of massive Clinton scandal rocking her poll numbers the same was as his Access Hollywood tape. Or the campaign is just completely imploding.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
October 13 2016 15:11 GMT
#110878
On October 13 2016 23:10 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2016 23:02 Nevuk wrote:
[image loading]

I am looking forward to the “Come at me bro” response from the Times.

Remember when papers reported on Bill Clinton’s problem with women. Remember when he threatened to sue them in an effort to silence them. Remember when Fox News had endless talking heads demanding Obama provide his birth certificate and Obama threatened to sue them.

Yeah….


Why is this law firm tarnishing its name by sending this letter LOL. Mr. Kasowitz needs to be a little more concerned about his reputation.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
October 13 2016 15:15 GMT
#110879
On October 14 2016 00:11 Doodsmack wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2016 23:10 Plansix wrote:
On October 13 2016 23:02 Nevuk wrote:
[image loading]

I am looking forward to the “Come at me bro” response from the Times.

Remember when papers reported on Bill Clinton’s problem with women. Remember when he threatened to sue them in an effort to silence them. Remember when Fox News had endless talking heads demanding Obama provide his birth certificate and Obama threatened to sue them.

Yeah….


Why is this law firm tarnishing its name by sending this letter LOL. Mr. Kasowitz needs to be a little more concerned about his reputation.

I assume trump spends a sizeable amount on legal fees for his various issues; trump might be the most valuable client that law firm has. and nobody really expects that much from a law firm anyways. I don't think it'll seriously hurt their reputation in a way that would hurt them financially.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
October 13 2016 15:16 GMT
#110880
On October 13 2016 13:15 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 13 2016 13:12 Mohdoo wrote:
Honestly, I'm not seeing why I should believe these women like the one on the plane. How do you prove something like that? How am I supposed to believe something that can't be proven? Jes got a history, but I can't pretend it doesn't make sense for people to make this up. Wouldn't be the first time political sex lies have come up.


It's not about proving whether it actually happened or not for either of them. It's just politics.

Most people have made up their mind on whether or not they believe the accusers or not based purely on who they support in the election. It has nothing to do with the truth.

Bill and Trump are both guilty until proven innocent in the minds of millions of Trump and Clinton supporters right now.

This election is a mummer's farce of democracy among other things.


The problem with your theory is the Trump audio and video.
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