|
Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
United States43990 Posts
On the one hand it makes sense that Trump concentrate his efforts in a state he can't win because he can't win by concentrating them on states that he can win. On the other, perhaps it's time for him to just go home.
|
On October 14 2016 00:15 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2016 00:11 Doodsmack wrote:On October 13 2016 23:10 Plansix wrote:On October 13 2016 23:02 Nevuk wrote:![[image loading]](http://static01.mediaite.com/med/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Cuo1iLpUsAUIYRn.jpg-large.jpeg) I am looking forward to the “Come at me bro” response from the Times. Remember when papers reported on Bill Clinton’s problem with women. Remember when he threatened to sue them in an effort to silence them. Remember when Fox News had endless talking heads demanding Obama provide his birth certificate and Obama threatened to sue them. Yeah…. Why is this law firm tarnishing its name by sending this letter LOL. Mr. Kasowitz needs to be a little more concerned about his reputation. I assume trump spends a sizeable amount on legal fees for his various issues; trump might be the most valuable client that law firm has. and nobody really expects that much from a law firm anyways. I don't think it'll seriously hurt their reputation in a way that would hurt them financially.
Highly doubtful that Trump's small-time defamation threat is that valuable to the firm. I guess they may want to maintain future work from the litigious Trump. But this is an extremely public thing, and Mr. Kasowitz just vomited out frivolity.
|
|
|
On October 14 2016 00:18 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2016 00:15 zlefin wrote:On October 14 2016 00:11 Doodsmack wrote:On October 13 2016 23:10 Plansix wrote:On October 13 2016 23:02 Nevuk wrote: I am looking forward to the “Come at me bro” response from the Times. Remember when papers reported on Bill Clinton’s problem with women. Remember when he threatened to sue them in an effort to silence them. Remember when Fox News had endless talking heads demanding Obama provide his birth certificate and Obama threatened to sue them. Yeah…. Why is this law firm tarnishing its name by sending this letter LOL. Mr. Kasowitz needs to be a little more concerned about his reputation. I assume trump spends a sizeable amount on legal fees for his various issues; trump might be the most valuable client that law firm has. and nobody really expects that much from a law firm anyways. I don't think it'll seriously hurt their reputation in a way that would hurt them financially. Highly doubtful that Trump's small-time defamation threat is that valuable to the firm. I guess they may want to maintain future work from the litigious Trump. But this is an extremely public thing, and Mr. Kasowitz just vomited out frivolity.
iirc, people/business usually have a preferred firm which they do ALL their legal business with. It makes it easier if there's one firm you have a relationship with, and which knows you and what you want. Is that firm the default one that handles all/most of trump's legal work? I haven't reviewed which lawyers trump has used, so I just don't know; but I wouldn't be surprised if they are.
|
United States43990 Posts
On October 14 2016 00:18 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2016 00:15 zlefin wrote:On October 14 2016 00:11 Doodsmack wrote:On October 13 2016 23:10 Plansix wrote:On October 13 2016 23:02 Nevuk wrote: I am looking forward to the “Come at me bro” response from the Times. Remember when papers reported on Bill Clinton’s problem with women. Remember when he threatened to sue them in an effort to silence them. Remember when Fox News had endless talking heads demanding Obama provide his birth certificate and Obama threatened to sue them. Yeah…. Why is this law firm tarnishing its name by sending this letter LOL. Mr. Kasowitz needs to be a little more concerned about his reputation. I assume trump spends a sizeable amount on legal fees for his various issues; trump might be the most valuable client that law firm has. and nobody really expects that much from a law firm anyways. I don't think it'll seriously hurt their reputation in a way that would hurt them financially. Highly doubtful that Trump's small-time defamation threat is that valuable to the firm. I guess they may want to maintain future work from the litigious Trump. But this is an extremely public thing, and Mr. Kasowitz just vomited out frivolity.
Trump brags about how he burns his money to try and force them to burn theirs to punish them because he has more to spare than they do. Sounds to me like that's exactly the client you want.
"So you don't expect me to win, you just want me to rack up as many expenses as I can, right?"
- His lawyers
|
On October 14 2016 00:11 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2016 23:10 Plansix wrote:On October 13 2016 23:02 Nevuk wrote: I am looking forward to the “Come at me bro” response from the Times. Remember when papers reported on Bill Clinton’s problem with women. Remember when he threatened to sue them in an effort to silence them. Remember when Fox News had endless talking heads demanding Obama provide his birth certificate and Obama threatened to sue them. Yeah…. Why is this law firm tarnishing its name by sending this letter LOL. Mr. Kasowitz needs to be a little more concerned about his reputation.
There is always an attorney to represent someone, no matter how silly the case. Every attorney on the planet has been handed a losing case and told to charge in there. It’s part of the job. Plus, it’s not like anyone expects them to win.
|
On October 13 2016 23:58 KwarK wrote:So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1. I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red). This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes. + Show Spoiler [electoral math] +Texas - 38 - Total so far 38 Georgia - 16 - 54 Indiana - 11 - 65 Tennessee - 11 - 76 Missouri - 10 - 86 South Carolina - 9 - 95 Alabama - 9 - 104 Kentucky - 8 - 112 Louisiana - 8 - 120 Oklahoma - 7 - 127 Arkansas - 6 - 133 Utah - 6 - 139 Kansas - 6 - 145 Mississippi - 6 - 151 West Virginia - 5 - 156 Nebraska - 5 - 161 Idaho - 4 - 165 Montana - 3 - 168 Wyoming - 3 - 171 North Dakota - 3 - 174 South Dakota - 3 - 177 Alaska - 3 - 180 That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool Florida - 29 Pennsylvania - 20 Ohio - 18 North Carolina - 15 Arizona - 11 Nevada - 6 Iowa - 6 Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote) Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves. + Show Spoiler [best case scenario for Trump, 6/6 comp…] +http://www.270towin.com/maps/W3Krg Conclusion in case anyone didn't bother to read. If we give Trump all 6 of the competitive states he wants, even though he's behind in all 6 of them today, and we give him the Maine vote, he'll get 266 electoral college votes. To win at this point he'd also have to flip a Clinton safe state, like New Hampshire. Trump needs to win 7 out of 6 competitive races to win the Presidency.
I think its pretty obvious from this that Trump simply doesnt not have the resources. He shouldn't have to focus so heavily on 1 state. To win he would have to be able to fight hard in every single battleground state. The fact that he can't appears to be obvious.
I guess the well of people willing to fund Trump has dried up a while ago.
|
United States43990 Posts
If Trump goes 6/6 in all the competitive states and gets 1 from Maine, - 266 electoral college votes.
If Trump wins the 4 states he's campaigning in (including Pennsylvania) but loses the swing states he's pulled out of - 262 electoral college votes
|
On October 14 2016 00:23 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2016 23:58 KwarK wrote:So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1. I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red). This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes. + Show Spoiler [electoral math] +Texas - 38 - Total so far 38 Georgia - 16 - 54 Indiana - 11 - 65 Tennessee - 11 - 76 Missouri - 10 - 86 South Carolina - 9 - 95 Alabama - 9 - 104 Kentucky - 8 - 112 Louisiana - 8 - 120 Oklahoma - 7 - 127 Arkansas - 6 - 133 Utah - 6 - 139 Kansas - 6 - 145 Mississippi - 6 - 151 West Virginia - 5 - 156 Nebraska - 5 - 161 Idaho - 4 - 165 Montana - 3 - 168 Wyoming - 3 - 171 North Dakota - 3 - 174 South Dakota - 3 - 177 Alaska - 3 - 180 That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool Florida - 29 Pennsylvania - 20 Ohio - 18 North Carolina - 15 Arizona - 11 Nevada - 6 Iowa - 6 Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote) Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves. + Show Spoiler [best case scenario for Trump, 6/6 comp…] +http://www.270towin.com/maps/W3Krg Conclusion in case anyone didn't bother to read. If we give Trump all 6 of the competitive states he wants, even though he's behind in all 6 of them today, and we give him the Maine vote, he'll get 266 electoral college votes. To win at this point he'd also have to flip a Clinton safe state, like New Hampshire. Trump needs to win 7 out of 6 competitive races to win the Presidency. I think its pretty obvious from this that Trump simply doesnt not have the resources. He shouldn't have to focus so heavily on 1 state. To win he would have to be able to fight hard in every single battleground state. The fact that he can't appears to be obvious. I guess the well of people willing to fund Trump has dried up a while ago.
Do we even have good records on Trump's campaign spending? Like it that something people have parsed. I still find Trump's spending habits oddly bizarre (i.e. having only a single field office in Florida) and would really be curious where the money is going.
|
So trumps about to get Cosby'd ye?
|
On October 14 2016 00:30 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2016 00:23 Gorsameth wrote:On October 13 2016 23:58 KwarK wrote:So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1. I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red). This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes. + Show Spoiler [electoral math] +Texas - 38 - Total so far 38 Georgia - 16 - 54 Indiana - 11 - 65 Tennessee - 11 - 76 Missouri - 10 - 86 South Carolina - 9 - 95 Alabama - 9 - 104 Kentucky - 8 - 112 Louisiana - 8 - 120 Oklahoma - 7 - 127 Arkansas - 6 - 133 Utah - 6 - 139 Kansas - 6 - 145 Mississippi - 6 - 151 West Virginia - 5 - 156 Nebraska - 5 - 161 Idaho - 4 - 165 Montana - 3 - 168 Wyoming - 3 - 171 North Dakota - 3 - 174 South Dakota - 3 - 177 Alaska - 3 - 180 That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool Florida - 29 Pennsylvania - 20 Ohio - 18 North Carolina - 15 Arizona - 11 Nevada - 6 Iowa - 6 Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote) Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves. + Show Spoiler [best case scenario for Trump, 6/6 comp…] +http://www.270towin.com/maps/W3Krg Conclusion in case anyone didn't bother to read. If we give Trump all 6 of the competitive states he wants, even though he's behind in all 6 of them today, and we give him the Maine vote, he'll get 266 electoral college votes. To win at this point he'd also have to flip a Clinton safe state, like New Hampshire. Trump needs to win 7 out of 6 competitive races to win the Presidency. I think its pretty obvious from this that Trump simply doesnt not have the resources. He shouldn't have to focus so heavily on 1 state. To win he would have to be able to fight hard in every single battleground state. The fact that he can't appears to be obvious. I guess the well of people willing to fund Trump has dried up a while ago. Do we even have good records on Trump's campaign spending? Like it that something people have parsed. I still find Trump's spending habits oddly bizarre (i.e. having only a single field office in Florida) and would really be curious where the money is going.
Well, a lot of it went to his own businesses to pay them for hosting campaign events.
|
On October 14 2016 00:20 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2016 00:18 Doodsmack wrote:On October 14 2016 00:15 zlefin wrote:On October 14 2016 00:11 Doodsmack wrote:On October 13 2016 23:10 Plansix wrote:On October 13 2016 23:02 Nevuk wrote: I am looking forward to the “Come at me bro” response from the Times. Remember when papers reported on Bill Clinton’s problem with women. Remember when he threatened to sue them in an effort to silence them. Remember when Fox News had endless talking heads demanding Obama provide his birth certificate and Obama threatened to sue them. Yeah…. Why is this law firm tarnishing its name by sending this letter LOL. Mr. Kasowitz needs to be a little more concerned about his reputation. I assume trump spends a sizeable amount on legal fees for his various issues; trump might be the most valuable client that law firm has. and nobody really expects that much from a law firm anyways. I don't think it'll seriously hurt their reputation in a way that would hurt them financially. Highly doubtful that Trump's small-time defamation threat is that valuable to the firm. I guess they may want to maintain future work from the litigious Trump. But this is an extremely public thing, and Mr. Kasowitz just vomited out frivolity. iirc, people/business usually have a preferred firm which they do ALL their legal business with. It makes it easier if there's one firm you have a relationship with, and which knows you and what you want. Is that firm the default one that handles all/most of trump's legal work? I haven't reviewed which lawyers trump has used, so I just don't know; but I wouldn't be surprised if they are.
Donald uses tons of different lawyers and firms all across the country for his various slimeballisms. I see now that this particular firm has represented him a lot in the past. I just kind of expected that with this particular letter, Donald would use his own Trump Organization lawyers, as he has done with other defamation threats. You've just gotta wonder whether this is an exceptionally toxic engagement for the firm to take on.
|
On October 14 2016 00:30 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2016 00:23 Gorsameth wrote:On October 13 2016 23:58 KwarK wrote:So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1. I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red). This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes. + Show Spoiler [electoral math] +Texas - 38 - Total so far 38 Georgia - 16 - 54 Indiana - 11 - 65 Tennessee - 11 - 76 Missouri - 10 - 86 South Carolina - 9 - 95 Alabama - 9 - 104 Kentucky - 8 - 112 Louisiana - 8 - 120 Oklahoma - 7 - 127 Arkansas - 6 - 133 Utah - 6 - 139 Kansas - 6 - 145 Mississippi - 6 - 151 West Virginia - 5 - 156 Nebraska - 5 - 161 Idaho - 4 - 165 Montana - 3 - 168 Wyoming - 3 - 171 North Dakota - 3 - 174 South Dakota - 3 - 177 Alaska - 3 - 180 That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool Florida - 29 Pennsylvania - 20 Ohio - 18 North Carolina - 15 Arizona - 11 Nevada - 6 Iowa - 6 Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote) Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves. + Show Spoiler [best case scenario for Trump, 6/6 comp…] +http://www.270towin.com/maps/W3Krg Conclusion in case anyone didn't bother to read. If we give Trump all 6 of the competitive states he wants, even though he's behind in all 6 of them today, and we give him the Maine vote, he'll get 266 electoral college votes. To win at this point he'd also have to flip a Clinton safe state, like New Hampshire. Trump needs to win 7 out of 6 competitive races to win the Presidency. I think its pretty obvious from this that Trump simply doesnt not have the resources. He shouldn't have to focus so heavily on 1 state. To win he would have to be able to fight hard in every single battleground state. The fact that he can't appears to be obvious. I guess the well of people willing to fund Trump has dried up a while ago. Do we even have good records on Trump's campaign spending? Like it that something people have parsed. I still find Trump's spending habits oddly bizarre (i.e. having only a single field office in Florida) and would really be curious where the money is going.
They should all exist in FEC fillings but I haven't seen any recent news on that.
|
|
|
United States43990 Posts
Incidentally PA hasn't gone Republican in 28 years. New Hampshire hasn't gone Republican in 16 years. Trump has no path to victory without at least one of the two. He's polling 10% behind Hillary in both.
|
On October 14 2016 00:30 PassiveAce wrote:
So trumps about to get Cosby'd ye?
Well whatever happens, if Trump ends up losing, he will have lost a lot. His reputation in in ruin, his name is forever tainted and instead of riming with success, it rimes with the deplorable America.
|
On October 14 2016 00:31 TheTenthDoc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2016 00:30 Logo wrote:On October 14 2016 00:23 Gorsameth wrote:On October 13 2016 23:58 KwarK wrote:So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1. I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red). This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes. + Show Spoiler [electoral math] +Texas - 38 - Total so far 38 Georgia - 16 - 54 Indiana - 11 - 65 Tennessee - 11 - 76 Missouri - 10 - 86 South Carolina - 9 - 95 Alabama - 9 - 104 Kentucky - 8 - 112 Louisiana - 8 - 120 Oklahoma - 7 - 127 Arkansas - 6 - 133 Utah - 6 - 139 Kansas - 6 - 145 Mississippi - 6 - 151 West Virginia - 5 - 156 Nebraska - 5 - 161 Idaho - 4 - 165 Montana - 3 - 168 Wyoming - 3 - 171 North Dakota - 3 - 174 South Dakota - 3 - 177 Alaska - 3 - 180 That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool Florida - 29 Pennsylvania - 20 Ohio - 18 North Carolina - 15 Arizona - 11 Nevada - 6 Iowa - 6 Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote) Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves. + Show Spoiler [best case scenario for Trump, 6/6 comp…] +http://www.270towin.com/maps/W3Krg Conclusion in case anyone didn't bother to read. If we give Trump all 6 of the competitive states he wants, even though he's behind in all 6 of them today, and we give him the Maine vote, he'll get 266 electoral college votes. To win at this point he'd also have to flip a Clinton safe state, like New Hampshire. Trump needs to win 7 out of 6 competitive races to win the Presidency. I think its pretty obvious from this that Trump simply doesnt not have the resources. He shouldn't have to focus so heavily on 1 state. To win he would have to be able to fight hard in every single battleground state. The fact that he can't appears to be obvious. I guess the well of people willing to fund Trump has dried up a while ago. Do we even have good records on Trump's campaign spending? Like it that something people have parsed. I still find Trump's spending habits oddly bizarre (i.e. having only a single field office in Florida) and would really be curious where the money is going. Well, a lot of it went to his own businesses to pay them for hosting campaign events.
Yeah this is all I've heard about it so far. I'm just really curious if he's made money, or at least spent money in a way that benefits him in excess of his personal cost.
Also in terms of reputation and stuff... I mean that's probably a problem for his kids, but at 70 years old he probably doesn't really need to care that much so long as his net worth stays in reasonable shape.
|
United States43990 Posts
On October 14 2016 00:41 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2016 00:30 PassiveAce wrote:
So trumps about to get Cosby'd ye? Well whatever happens, if Trump ends up losing, he will have lost a lot. His reputation in in ruin, his name is forever tainted and instead of riming with success, it rimes with the deplorable America.
*rhymes, please. 
It's one of those weird English words. Not trying to grammar Nazi, no mad, no shaming #alllettersmatter
|
|
|
On October 14 2016 00:43 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2016 00:31 TheTenthDoc wrote:On October 14 2016 00:30 Logo wrote:On October 14 2016 00:23 Gorsameth wrote:On October 13 2016 23:58 KwarK wrote:So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1. I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red). This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes. + Show Spoiler [electoral math] +Texas - 38 - Total so far 38 Georgia - 16 - 54 Indiana - 11 - 65 Tennessee - 11 - 76 Missouri - 10 - 86 South Carolina - 9 - 95 Alabama - 9 - 104 Kentucky - 8 - 112 Louisiana - 8 - 120 Oklahoma - 7 - 127 Arkansas - 6 - 133 Utah - 6 - 139 Kansas - 6 - 145 Mississippi - 6 - 151 West Virginia - 5 - 156 Nebraska - 5 - 161 Idaho - 4 - 165 Montana - 3 - 168 Wyoming - 3 - 171 North Dakota - 3 - 174 South Dakota - 3 - 177 Alaska - 3 - 180 That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool Florida - 29 Pennsylvania - 20 Ohio - 18 North Carolina - 15 Arizona - 11 Nevada - 6 Iowa - 6 Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote) Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves. + Show Spoiler [best case scenario for Trump, 6/6 comp…] +http://www.270towin.com/maps/W3Krg Conclusion in case anyone didn't bother to read. If we give Trump all 6 of the competitive states he wants, even though he's behind in all 6 of them today, and we give him the Maine vote, he'll get 266 electoral college votes. To win at this point he'd also have to flip a Clinton safe state, like New Hampshire. Trump needs to win 7 out of 6 competitive races to win the Presidency. I think its pretty obvious from this that Trump simply doesnt not have the resources. He shouldn't have to focus so heavily on 1 state. To win he would have to be able to fight hard in every single battleground state. The fact that he can't appears to be obvious. I guess the well of people willing to fund Trump has dried up a while ago. Do we even have good records on Trump's campaign spending? Like it that something people have parsed. I still find Trump's spending habits oddly bizarre (i.e. having only a single field office in Florida) and would really be curious where the money is going. Well, a lot of it went to his own businesses to pay them for hosting campaign events. Yeah this is all I've heard about it so far. I'm just really curious if he's made money, or at least spent money in a way that benefits him in excess of his personal cost. Also in terms of reputation and stuff... I mean that's probably a problem for his kids, but at 70 years old so long he probably doesn't really need to care that much so long as his net worth stays in reasonable shape.
Trump doesn't strike me as the kind of person to hang up his coat and enjoy a relaxed and (comparatively) modest lifestyle while living off his wealth's interest.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
