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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 4694

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Shingi11
Profile Joined May 2016
290 Posts
August 10 2016 12:18 GMT
#93861
So trump is only up by 5 points in kansas, god let that sink in. Clinton could turn turn red as red can be kansas into a battleground lol. Is there going to be any safe red states in nov after trump get done with them.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9290 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-10 12:26:14
August 10 2016 12:25 GMT
#93862
I think this rise of populism in the Western world is just low information voters getting tired of establishment politicians promising changes without actually intending to change anything drastically. Things were fine 15 years ago but politicians needed slogans to win the elections and for some reason stuff like "Change we can believe in" and "Yes We Can" was super effective. Low information voters believed those slogans and now they're angry that their unrealistic expectations (like European style healthcare in the US) weren't fulfilled.

My point is that populists had a bad time in the last 15-25 years because establishment politicians "stole" and upgraded their methods. Now things are going back to normal where radical voters support real radicals instead of the mainstream left or right.
You're now breathing manually
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18856 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-10 12:28:13
August 10 2016 12:27 GMT
#93863
There is literally nothing to support the notion that Obama supporters are fueling the rise of Trump...the minority voter differential between the two alone calls that line of reasoning into question.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9290 Posts
August 10 2016 12:40 GMT
#93864
No no I don't mean that Obama supporters are voting Trump now. I mean that some of the low information voters with left-wing views who supported Obama will not support Clinton now because she's not as radical as Sanders. They'll stay at home or vote third party. Similarly, some right-wing low information voters who supported McCain or Romney chose to support Trump instead of Rubio or Jeb Bush.
You're now breathing manually
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States45456 Posts
August 10 2016 12:48 GMT
#93865
On August 10 2016 21:18 Shingi11 wrote:
So trump is only up by 5 points in kansas, god let that sink in. Clinton could turn turn red as red can be kansas into a battleground lol. Is there going to be any safe red states in nov after trump get done with them.


As interesting as that would be, I have a feeling that pretty much all of the red states will go back to being truly red if the Republicans have a real (traditional) Republican presidential nominee in four years.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-10 14:05:46
August 10 2016 13:40 GMT
#93866
Velr you are right for Pediga and such in Dresde (we have the same in the south of France near Nice where a lot of ex algerian colons - called "pieds noirs" - live and they always voted FN, never really accepted the fact that they were kicked out of algeria). But that kind of regional tendancy cannot really explain the rise in populism ; if such populism rise, it is that it is indeed responding to a need.
I'll give you an exemple ; in France the bourgeoisie is proud to respond that mostly uneducated people vote FN - as in people with no degree. This is / was true when the FN was at 10 %, and it is still somewhat true now that the FN is at 30 %, but in this huge increase a lot of well educated people also changed their vote. This change cannot be explained by simply presenting the opposing party as a bunch of idiots and bigots, like the hillary crowd do with both Trump, Sanders, and everybody else.

On August 10 2016 21:27 farvacola wrote:
There is literally nothing to support the notion that Obama supporters are fueling the rise of Trump...the minority voter differential between the two alone calls that line of reasoning into question.

If anything, Obama, with his management of the crisis, is responsible for the fact that populism in the US is still a minority. People want change for obvious reasons, they're not ready to tear down everything appart.
The only thing he was unable to do, it seems, is lower racial tension and gun violence.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18856 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-10 13:49:32
August 10 2016 13:49 GMT
#93867
Your desire to draw comparisons is not particularly availing here; not only does the US political dynamic hinge on a significantly more dramatic inter-differentiation in geo-political landscape, it is uncontested that Trump's largest voting bloc is white, uneducated males. This is not to say that calling them idiots is helpful, rather that comparisons with France in the interest of glossing over prominent characteristics of voting demographics is not altogether very useful.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
SolaR-
Profile Blog Joined February 2004
United States2685 Posts
August 10 2016 13:52 GMT
#93868
On August 07 2016 11:33 Nevuk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2016 11:23 SolaR- wrote:
I'm probably voting for Hillary now. The trump dream has died. Discuss

Were you originally going to vote for Trump? If so, what was the breaking point to decide to vote for a different candidate?


Yeah I was for trump. I liked his stance on trade and the economy. Somewhat on immigration and I liked how he was willing to call out Islam. However, I consider myself socially liberal and convinced myself that trump was a moderate in disguise and would take a more moderate stance as the election progressed. With the selection of Mike Pence as VP, I cannot in good conscience vote for trump. Whether the selection was his choice or not.

WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-10 13:55:29
August 10 2016 13:52 GMT
#93869
On August 10 2016 22:49 farvacola wrote:
Your desire to draw comparisons is not particularly availing here; not only does the US political dynamic hinge on a significantly more dramatic inter-differentiation in geo-political landscape, it is uncontested that Trump's largest voting bloc is white, uneducated males. This is not to say that calling them idiots is helpful, rather that comparisons with France in the interest of glossing over prominent characteristics of voting demographics is not altogether very useful.

Maybe, but there are a lot of similarities between a Trump and a Le Pen ; critic of the free market, gross desire for sovereignty that, sometime, flirt with nationalism, tendancy to describe every possible problem as a problem that come from outside, etc.

Same with Ukip, same with AfD.

It's true that the racial question is very specific to the US.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18856 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-10 13:56:00
August 10 2016 13:54 GMT
#93870
See that I don't disagree with; Trump and Le Pen are quite similar, but the political dynamics inherent to their respective nations are very much the opposite of that, and therein lies the complication. I think it's a mistake to address populism as though it operates like an abstract, universal form of political inclination; instead, I think it must be understood in the context of the nations in which it operates. In other words, I think US populism is very different from its European siblings.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-10 14:08:44
August 10 2016 14:05 GMT
#93871
You're right that there is specificity, comparaison have limits.

And, in all its flaws, the US' political system has always made it possible for charismatic and rather intelligent leaders to appear. People seems to believe Hillary is, somehow, a weak choice, but she has a lot more qualities than most politician in France. It's not Hollande.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
August 10 2016 14:06 GMT
#93872
The rise of populism in the US is pretty easily explained by economic factors alone. The main people who backed both the populist candidates are the groups most affected by rising inequality - whites with no college degree and young voters. Over and over I hear people saying that 90%+ of the recovery has gone to the top 1%, it makes it pretty hard to be convinced that there was a recovery at all.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
August 10 2016 14:42 GMT
#93873
Income inequality is a major factor in the current rise of populism. If you trace a lot of the complains of populism back to the source root, most boil down to people feeling a lack of control over their government when compared to the wealthy. Issues like campaign finance reform, immigration, gun safety, tax loop holes and others all stem back to people feeling like they have no input or what they want isn’t being acted on.

There was a report on NPR some years back about Demark and their views on taxes in the abstract. That the people in Demark had a generally positive view of taxes because they received direct benefits from those taxes. And because the citizens had to interact with the government often, the views of the government and its workers were generally more positive than the US. Of course this is a generalization and was around 5-10 years ago, but it raised the question of how our parties “sell” government to voters.

The vast majority of Americans have supported immigration and campaign finance reform for the almost 20 years I have been able to vote. Those issues have only gotten worse. And even if Clinton is elected, I doubt the we have political will to address those problems with the way the parties are functioning.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43862 Posts
August 10 2016 14:45 GMT
#93874
The only possible explanation for this whole "what recovery?" mentality when the market tripled under Obama is people who somehow don't have a cut of the action. It's been a great 8 years.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
August 10 2016 14:46 GMT
#93875
Really hope Giuliani gets tarred and feathered when Trump loses badly. It's pretty funny though that the guy who said Obama doesn't love his country is the one with such an affinity for Trump.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
August 10 2016 14:47 GMT
#93876
On August 10 2016 23:45 KwarK wrote:
The only possible explanation for this whole "what recovery?" mentality when the market tripled under Obama is people who somehow don't have a cut of the action. It's been a great 8 years.


The ones who pulled their money out at the bottom in 2008...because that's smart and all.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23832 Posts
August 10 2016 14:49 GMT
#93877
So we can add Baltimore to the growing list of cities where black people had to protest/riot just to get an investigation into the blatant racism and total disregard for their civil rights.

Of course the people who go too far will be lumped with those who don't, both will continue to get told how they need to act better if they want it to stop, it will be by racists/faux constitutionalists/"reasonable people" who think protesters not protesting right is the big problem slowing progress. Not the systemic and consistent racism, and contempt for constitutional rights from police departments (and other institutions) across the country.

Seriously, stop complaining about the protests and complain about the police, politicians, and people who just still don't get how stupid and f'd up they're being
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
August 10 2016 14:51 GMT
#93878
I think it's possible to complain about both at the same time. Quite a large number of people agree with the main issue of extrajudicial killings and police requiring more accountability. But at the same time many of the protests are really shitty.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-10 14:55:36
August 10 2016 14:52 GMT
#93879
On August 10 2016 23:45 KwarK wrote:
The only possible explanation for this whole "what recovery?" mentality when the market tripled under Obama is people who somehow don't have a cut of the action. It's been a great 8 years.


On one side, you have the middle class shrinking - though apparently 2/3 of that is due to people moving upwards due to getting part of that growth.

But on the other hand, you have a pretty big working class which didn't reap the benefits b/c they don't really participate in the market or had to pull out their LT investments because they got laid off and needed money immediately.

Social mobility is good for the middle class, but not for working class/ poor.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10873 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-08-10 14:59:48
August 10 2016 14:59 GMT
#93880
Uhm, in a healthy society the middle class mainly consists of the working class...

.
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