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On July 13 2016 12:03 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
please be flynn please be flynn please be flynn please don't be newt please dont be newt please dont be newt
Don't you think that an outsider like Trump would benefit from having a politician be his VP? Someone who actually plays the Washington political game and can help him realize his plans.
Is Flynn the preferred choice simply because there is no decent politician willing to be VP or do you think he would actually make a great VP?
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On July 13 2016 13:53 NukeD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2016 11:27 Lord Tolkien wrote: I'm still looking for someone to take me up on the 1 year ban bet on the outcome. You say Hillary or Trump will win? If you read any of my posts and the basic analyses I do for the Electoral College, obviously Hillary.
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On July 13 2016 06:50 Plansix wrote:http://www.liquiddota.com/forum/general/383301-us-politics-mega-thread?page=4244#84868Show nested quote +On July 12 2016 05:06 The Bottle wrote:On July 12 2016 03:56 GGTeMpLaR wrote: Why does it say there is no racial differences in the use of lethal force in the same article it acknowledges whites are 22% more likely to be shot than blacks?
All the statistics on non-lethal force have less than 21% differential for blacks being more likely to be subjected to non-lethal use of force and that constitutes a racial bias, but 22% more likely to be subject to lethal force as white isn't racial bias?
Is it purely going off the larger differential present in the data revolving around the civilian's takes on the encounters? Because the result was not statistically significant. I.e. they did a logistic regression to learn the coefficients to the "black" dummy variable for probability of lethal force and did, what I'm guessing (the paper didn't specify) was a likelihood ratio test or Wald test to determine whether said dummy variable causes a significant difference in the chi-squared p value of that test. Again, the paper didn't specify why the results were statistically insignificant (they really don't go into much detail on their statistical analysis) but I'm guessing that their sample of black subjects was just too small. (The overall sample was roughly 4 thousand, all from Houston, but I didn't see them specify anywhere what proportion of that sample was black.) And this the comment about the sample size being to small. On top of the comments above.
I wouldn't so much call what I wrote there a "rebuttal" as much as just an answer to what I considered to be a legitimate question of his. That is, he asked why the paper claims they found no racial difference between whites and blacks being shot by cops, and at the same time, the portion of the study done for cop shootings shows a 23% difference. As they said multiple times in the paper, they did a logistic regression and there was no statistical significance. The reason for the lack of significance was something I speculated, and I made it clear that I didn't know the real answer, because the paper doesn't specify. 4500 is actually a pretty large sample size (the size they claimed to use in the Houston study for police shootings) so I was puzzled by the lack of significance, my speculation was merely from experience of having trained GLMs (generalised linear models) before. It could have been a small proportion of blacks, or it could have been a small proportion of "successes" or "failures" (in this context a "success" or "failure" means shooting or lack thereof... purely statistical language, that doesn't mean that I consider killing somebody to be a successful endeavour). It certainly could have been a small proportion of the training set in any of those subgroups (white successes, white failures, black successes, black failures, etc), i.e. any form of under represented sub samples, which is a common problem in classification training.
Ultimately, the answer to whether or not either blacks or whites get disproportionately shot by police is inconclusive from that paper, by their own admission that their results were statistically insignificant. Keep in mind, when you're doing a statistical analysis in order to look for a correlation, what you're doing is trying to reject the "null hypothesis" (in this case the "null hypothesis" would mean no correlation between race and probability of getting shot). A statistically significant result means that the probability of the null hypothesis being true is too small to be accepted, thus it is successfully rejected. In this case, they simply failed to reject the null hypothesis, which means they failed to give credibility to the notion that there is a significant difference between the two being shot. That doesn't mean that there isn't a significant difference, only that this study in particular didn't find one. Again, that means that the answer to this question is inconclusive from this paper.
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MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — When Philando Castile saw the flashing lights in his rearview mirror the night he got shot, it wasn't unusual. He had been pulled over at least 52 times in recent years in and around the Twin Cities and given citations for minor offenses including speeding, driving without a muffler and not wearing a seat belt.
He was assessed at least $6,588 in fines and fees, although more than half of the total 86 violations were dismissed, court records show.
Source
Hmm
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On July 14 2016 01:07 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — When Philando Castile saw the flashing lights in his rearview mirror the night he got shot, it wasn't unusual. He had been pulled over at least 52 times in recent years in and around the Twin Cities and given citations for minor offenses including speeding, driving without a muffler and not wearing a seat belt.
He was assessed at least $6,588 in fines and fees, although more than half of the total 86 violations were dismissed, court records show. SourceHmm A couple things. First, it sounds like he was habitually driving around in violation of the law, giving cops ample reason to pull him over. Second, charges are dismissed whenever cops fail to show up at the first court hearings. That's why it is never a bad idea to simply show up at the court hearing before paying the fine, because there's a very good chance that the cop won't show up.
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On July 14 2016 01:33 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2016 01:07 ticklishmusic wrote:MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — When Philando Castile saw the flashing lights in his rearview mirror the night he got shot, it wasn't unusual. He had been pulled over at least 52 times in recent years in and around the Twin Cities and given citations for minor offenses including speeding, driving without a muffler and not wearing a seat belt.
He was assessed at least $6,588 in fines and fees, although more than half of the total 86 violations were dismissed, court records show. SourceHmm A couple things. First, it sounds like he was habitually driving around in violation of the law, giving cops ample reason to pull him over. Second, charges are dismissed whenever cops fail to show up at the first court hearings. That's why it is never a bad idea to simply show up at the court hearing before paying the fine, because there's a very good chance that the cop won't show up. As someone who habitually drives with an out of date inspection sticker, sometimes foe years at a time, I've been pulled over less than 10 times. Though this does seem to be both a problem with his driving habits and a little bit of police pulling over black dudes.
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This is a really important article from a black former police officer:
I'm a black ex-cop, and this is the real truth about race and policing
Some highlights:
It is not only white officers who abuse their authority. The effect of institutional racism is such that no matter what color the officer abusing the citizen is, in the vast majority of those cases of abuse that citizen will be black or brown. That is what is allowed.
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Chicago is a prime example of this: the city has created a reparations fund for the hundreds of victims who were tortured by former Chicago Police Commander Jon Burge and officers under his command from the 1970s to the early ‘90s.
The victims were electrically shocked, suffocated, and beaten into false confessions that resulted in many of them being convicted and serving time for crimes they didn't commit. One man, Darrell Cannon, spent 24 years in prison for a crime he confessed to but didn't commit. He confessed when officers repeatedly appeared to load a shotgun and after doing so each time put it in his mouth and pulled the trigger. Other men received electric shocks until they confessed . . . Burge got four years in prison, and now receives his full taxpayer-funded pension.
...
Every officer in the country should be wearing a body camera that remains activated throughout any interaction they have with the public while on duty. There is no reasonable expectation of privacy for officers when they are on duty and in service to the public. Citizens must also have the right to record police officers as they carry out their public service, provided that they are at a safe distance, based on the circumstances, and not interfering. Witnessing an interaction does not by itself constitute interference.
...
Racism is woven into the fabric of our nation. At no time in our history has there been a national consensus that everyone should be equally valued in all areas of life. We are rooted in racism in spite of the better efforts of Americans of all races to change that.
Because of this legacy of racism, police abuse in black and brown communities is generations old. It is nothing new. It has become more visible to mainstream America largely because of the proliferation of personal recording devices, cellphone cameras, video recorders — they're everywhere. We need police officers. We also need them to be held accountable to the communities they serve.
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That is a good read, thanks for the post. Its sad to think that the Chicago Police are still hot garbage all these years later.
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On July 13 2016 02:20 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2016 02:16 zeo wrote:On July 13 2016 02:13 KwarK wrote: Didn't Lynch wash her hands of the entire matter by stating that as a political appointee she wanted to avoid the appearance of partiality in order to place the outcome above all doubt and that she would therefore comply with whatever the FBI recommended? If so, why the hell is she being questioned? She wasn't even involved because she knew that they'd do exactly this bullshit. She talked with Bill Clinton before she came to that conclusion. You know the same guy that appointed her as a US attorney in 1999  Sounds like the decision was made back in 1999. You've unintentionally swerved into the truth here.
This is why you'll never see any direct links from Obama to any of the scandals he's been a part of. The same reason why you never had a piece of paper signed by Hitler saying: "Kill all the Jews."
People know what Obama/Clinton want. They don't have to be told because they've all been a part of the same "cabal" since before anyone else can remember. Not to mention they are all wives and husbands and brothers and sisters with each other. Nepotism is strong in the Federal Government, especially in the Obama admin. Add on top of that the incestuous relationship between government, media, and lobbying/special interests and you've got a whole network that can invent, implement, and then cover up all the horrible things Obama/Clinton want done without ever being told to do so by any one person.
Too bad Nixon didn't just tell the prosecutors that he never intended to delete those tapes. Oh wait, I forgot, the "I'm too incompetent to be corrupt!" defense only works for Democrats.
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Lol, it had been a while since Godwin last showed his face. Not long enough I suppose.
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On July 14 2016 01:50 Cowboy24 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2016 02:20 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2016 02:16 zeo wrote:On July 13 2016 02:13 KwarK wrote: Didn't Lynch wash her hands of the entire matter by stating that as a political appointee she wanted to avoid the appearance of partiality in order to place the outcome above all doubt and that she would therefore comply with whatever the FBI recommended? If so, why the hell is she being questioned? She wasn't even involved because she knew that they'd do exactly this bullshit. She talked with Bill Clinton before she came to that conclusion. You know the same guy that appointed her as a US attorney in 1999  Sounds like the decision was made back in 1999. You've unintentionally swerved into the truth here. This is why you'll never see any direct links from Obama to any of the scandals he's been a part of. The same reason why you never had a piece of paper signed by Hitler saying: "Kill all the Jews." People know what Obama/Clinton want. They don't have to be told because they've all been a part of the same "cabal" since before anyone else can remember. Not to mention they are all wives and husbands and brothers and sisters with each other. Nepotism is strong in the Federal Government, especially in the Obama admin. Add on top of that the incestuous relationship between government, media, and lobbying/special interests and you've got a whole network that can invent, implement, and then cover up all the horrible things Obama/Clinton want done without ever being told to do so by any one person. Too bad Nixon didn't just tell the prosecutors that he never intended to delete those tapes. Oh wait, I forgot, the "I'm too incompetent to be corrupt!" defense only works for Democrats. Late to the party. If congress and the GOP wants to push forward with charges, they have the power to do so. The fact that they didn't is telling. Ken Star was ready to go the instant the investigation was over. They appointed him during White Water because they knew Janet Reno shouldn't have heard the case and she agreed. But the GOP never wanted to be the ones at the head of this, they just wanted to give it to people under the control of the executive branch. They never wanted to push to bring charges themselves, just blame those who decided not to based on lack of evidence.
That is why the house republicans are a bunch of spineless whiners. Because they have the power to do things, but don't want to be responsible for them.
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On July 14 2016 01:50 Cowboy24 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2016 02:20 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2016 02:16 zeo wrote:On July 13 2016 02:13 KwarK wrote: Didn't Lynch wash her hands of the entire matter by stating that as a political appointee she wanted to avoid the appearance of partiality in order to place the outcome above all doubt and that she would therefore comply with whatever the FBI recommended? If so, why the hell is she being questioned? She wasn't even involved because she knew that they'd do exactly this bullshit. She talked with Bill Clinton before she came to that conclusion. You know the same guy that appointed her as a US attorney in 1999  Sounds like the decision was made back in 1999. SNIP ...Nixon couldn't make that defense because he told his aides, explicitly on official White House recordings, to cover it up.
As for the rest of your post. This thread isn't r/conspiracy, and I would like to think the conversation is several grades above r/politics. Please post such idle musings there instead.
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On July 13 2016 19:04 Gorsameth wrote:Don't you think that an outsider like Trump would benefit from having a politician be his VP? Someone who actually plays the Washington political game and can help him realize his plans. Is Flynn the preferred choice simply because there is no decent politician willing to be VP or do you think he would actually make a great VP?
Short answer - he probably would benefit from a politician as VP, but I think the benefits of having General Flynn outweigh the benefits he would receive from a seasoned politician like Newt Gingrich as VP. Trump will have no shortage of seasoned politicians he can fill his cabinet with.
I would say he's my preferred choice because of both of those factors you mention here, granted I am not fully educated on every single VP candidate that he has been vetted. I fully respect someone that high-ranking in the military as having integrity; it's not an easy position to acquire and military life, even for officers, is not an easy path. In the short interview with him, he did seem a little less versed in speaking on political issues than you would expect from a seasoned politician but that doesn't bother me too much because I agreed with his stances on all the issues he did speak of and I'm sure if he's made the VP he will improve in this matter.
I will be extremely disappointed in Trump if he chooses Newt Gingrich as VP over General Flynn.
In other news, the polls released yesterday are likely the result of the last weeks hearings with Trump making crucial gains over Clinton in significant swing states -
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 41, Trump 43 Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 41, Trump 41 Florida: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Trump 42, Clinton 39
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Quinnipiac Trump 40, Clinton 34, Johnson 9, Stein 3 Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Quinnipiac Trump 37, Clinton 36, Johnson 7, Stein 6 Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Quinnipiac Trump 41, Clinton 36, Johnson 7, Stein 4
Source
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The Senate is set to approve a bill intended to change the way police and health care workers treat people struggling with opioid addictions.
The bill is an amalgam of more than a dozen proposals passed through the year in the House and Senate. And while it has lots of new policies and provisions — from creating a task force to study how best to treat pain, to encouraging states to create prescription drug monitoring programs — it doesn't have much money to put them in place.
President Obama had requested $1.1 billion to help pay for more addiction treatment programs and other initiatives. But the version agreed to by House and Senate Republicans last week didn't include all that money. In the end, it will probably get about half that much.
"It's clear that efforts to prevent and treat the opioid epidemic will fall short without additional investments," Sen. Patty Murray, D-Washington, said in a statement after House and Senate negotiators hammered out the final bill.
But Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., argued that the money for treatment has been rising for three years.
"Our friends on the other side say, you have to fund it. We are funding it," he said in a statement on the Senate floor Friday. "And they helped fund it. We've increased funding for opioids already by 542 percent."
Still, Democrats are expected to support the bill even without the additional money.
Source
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When people say they increased funding by 500% for drug treatment, that only tells me that it was massively underfunded before. And it’s not like people can get over opioid addiction on their own.
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On July 14 2016 02:42 GGTeMpLaR wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2016 19:04 Gorsameth wrote:Don't you think that an outsider like Trump would benefit from having a politician be his VP? Someone who actually plays the Washington political game and can help him realize his plans. Is Flynn the preferred choice simply because there is no decent politician willing to be VP or do you think he would actually make a great VP? Short answer - he probably would benefit from a politician as VP, but I think the benefits of having General Flynn outweigh the benefits he would receive from a seasoned politician like Newt Gingrich as VP. Trump will have no shortage of seasoned politicians he can fill his cabinet with. I would say he's my preferred choice because of both of those factors you mention here, granted I am not fully educated on every single VP candidate that he has been vetted. I fully respect someone that high-ranking in the military as having integrity; it's not an easy position to acquire and military life, even for officers, is not an easy path. In the short interview with him, he did seem a little less versed in speaking on political issues than you would expect from a seasoned politician but that doesn't bother me too much because I agreed with his stances on all the issues he did speak of and I'm sure if he's made the VP he will improve in this matter. I will be extremely disappointed in Trump if he chooses Newt Gingrich as VP over General Flynn. In other news, the polls released yesterday are likely the result of the last weeks hearings with Trump making crucial gains over Clinton in significant swing states - Show nested quote +Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 41, Trump 43 Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 41, Trump 41 Florida: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Trump 42, Clinton 39
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Quinnipiac Trump 40, Clinton 34, Johnson 9, Stein 3 Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Quinnipiac Trump 37, Clinton 36, Johnson 7, Stein 6 Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Quinnipiac Trump 41, Clinton 36, Johnson 7, Stein 4 Source It looks like Trump is going to pick Pence.
As for the polls, it's still a little early to attribute much significance to them, though it is clear that the email thing is a big drag on Clinton. It's going to be really fun when Trump/others start creating attack ads featuring clips from Comey's press conference and run those ad nauseam.
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Ohio is pretty much the same as it has been for the pollster but it does look there may have been some Florida movement, which is interesting. Wonder if the Sanders endorsement will do anything.
+ Show Spoiler +Also I'm getting tilted real hard by the frequentist statistics in this thread right now but that's not really a good subject for the US politics thread unless we start talking about "reproducibility" or health studies at some point.
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NEW YORK — Wall Street executives are hitting the sell button on the GOP convention in Cleveland next week.
Bankers typically use the quadrennial Republican Party gathering to schmooze clients, host parties and flaunt their connections to the nominee and other senior officials. In 2012, they flooded the Tampa Bay area to celebrate one of the industry’s favorite sons, Mitt Romney, getting the nomination.
But with real estate mogul Donald Trump running on an anti-trade, populist platform — while sporting sky-high unpopularity ratings — many bankers and traders want nothing to do with the convention this year.
Neither do most corporate CEOs. The prospect of Trump bashing trade deals and talking about building a wall with Mexico, coupled with the threat of potentially disruptive protests, is largely keeping the financial world away from Cleveland.
“With Trump you have what is a fairly divisive campaign and you have the potential of unnecessarily offending a whole bunch of people if you show up there in a prominent way,” said Matt McDonald, a partner at consulting firm Hamilton Place Strategies, which does business with some of the nation’s biggest banks. “On top of that, a lot of the people that you might want to get in front of for one reason or another are not going to be there.”
McDonald cited the long roster of senior Republican lawmakers skipping the convention as one major reason financial executives don’t feel the need to raise the flag in Cleveland.
So far, no major Wall Street CEOs have said they plan to attend the convention. JPMorgan Chase, which played a sponsorship role in 2012, declined to do so this year. Goldman Sachs will also be largely absent, as will Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Citigroup plans only a low-key presence.
And unlike in 2012, when rank-and-file Wall Streeters were all over Tampa, many bankers and lobbyists who typically make the rounds will be taking a pass. “I’m just going to skip it because, frankly, I don’t see the point in going,” said a senior lobbyist for one of the largest banks in the nation. “Usually there is pressure to at least show up, but with Trump you get a pass. No one is going to care if you don’t go.”
At Goldman, typically one of the most politically engaged banks on Wall Street, there may be almost no one at all going to Cleveland. “I asked around and couldn’t find a single person who planned to be there,” said one Goldman executive who declined to be quoted by name. “Most people who want to see someone from the Trump campaign can do it some other place at some other time. And the potential is there for Cleveland to be a complete shit show. It’s a real problem for executives because if you go, you are certainly going to offend women and minority groups within your own company.”
Corporate unease with the GOP convention extends well beyond Wall Street. Google and Coca-Cola, after playing significant roles at Romney’s convention in 2012, backed away this year after pressure from activists.
Source
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Polling at this time in the electoral cycle is incredibly unreliable, I'd just stick with intuition for now
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On July 14 2016 03:17 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +NEW YORK — Wall Street executives are hitting the sell button on the GOP convention in Cleveland next week.
Bankers typically use the quadrennial Republican Party gathering to schmooze clients, host parties and flaunt their connections to the nominee and other senior officials. In 2012, they flooded the Tampa Bay area to celebrate one of the industry’s favorite sons, Mitt Romney, getting the nomination.
But with real estate mogul Donald Trump running on an anti-trade, populist platform — while sporting sky-high unpopularity ratings — many bankers and traders want nothing to do with the convention this year.
Neither do most corporate CEOs. The prospect of Trump bashing trade deals and talking about building a wall with Mexico, coupled with the threat of potentially disruptive protests, is largely keeping the financial world away from Cleveland.
“With Trump you have what is a fairly divisive campaign and you have the potential of unnecessarily offending a whole bunch of people if you show up there in a prominent way,” said Matt McDonald, a partner at consulting firm Hamilton Place Strategies, which does business with some of the nation’s biggest banks. “On top of that, a lot of the people that you might want to get in front of for one reason or another are not going to be there.”
McDonald cited the long roster of senior Republican lawmakers skipping the convention as one major reason financial executives don’t feel the need to raise the flag in Cleveland.
So far, no major Wall Street CEOs have said they plan to attend the convention. JPMorgan Chase, which played a sponsorship role in 2012, declined to do so this year. Goldman Sachs will also be largely absent, as will Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Citigroup plans only a low-key presence.
And unlike in 2012, when rank-and-file Wall Streeters were all over Tampa, many bankers and lobbyists who typically make the rounds will be taking a pass. “I’m just going to skip it because, frankly, I don’t see the point in going,” said a senior lobbyist for one of the largest banks in the nation. “Usually there is pressure to at least show up, but with Trump you get a pass. No one is going to care if you don’t go.”
At Goldman, typically one of the most politically engaged banks on Wall Street, there may be almost no one at all going to Cleveland. “I asked around and couldn’t find a single person who planned to be there,” said one Goldman executive who declined to be quoted by name. “Most people who want to see someone from the Trump campaign can do it some other place at some other time. And the potential is there for Cleveland to be a complete shit show. It’s a real problem for executives because if you go, you are certainly going to offend women and minority groups within your own company.”
Corporate unease with the GOP convention extends well beyond Wall Street. Google and Coca-Cola, after playing significant roles at Romney’s convention in 2012, backed away this year after pressure from activists. Source
Here's your cue, Bernie supporters: time to flock to Daddy!
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