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On June 19 2016 04:29 Hexe wrote: Are any of these leaks going to make mainstream news though? Only if there is a genuine smoking gun in there somewhere and not the 'shocking' news that the DNC was preparing for the general election in 2015 and that they work with some upper class people.
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I know it's also the weekend, but I have a suspicion Trump is starting a second break from the media/Fox/cable like he did in late March, hopefully to let some things cool down and blow over and so he can get it together for the convention. His campaign schedule is empty now. He apparently needs to raise funds at this point after months on the trial.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/10/politics/mitt-romney-donald-trump-fundraising/
He seems to be sincere when he talks about wanting to flip CA and NY, which would be great, but I don't know how realistic that path is. He's got a better chance of being competitive in NJ and OR, but wants to win bigly I guess.
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Let's talk about whether Trump's insinuation that Obama was on the side of the Orlando attacker was accidental. And whether the media put those words in his mouth as part of their leftist spin.
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On June 18 2016 19:08 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2016 19:02 kwizach wrote:On June 18 2016 18:57 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 18 2016 18:50 kwizach wrote:On June 18 2016 18:46 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 18 2016 17:51 kwizach wrote:On June 18 2016 17:44 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 18 2016 17:40 kwizach wrote:On June 18 2016 15:09 GreenHorizons wrote: So the DNC and Hillary were colluding as far back as May 2015 and not a peep. I know HRC hasn't given guidance on this yet, but are her supporters thinking dismissal or denial is the better route? Sermokala already addressed this, so I'm not sure why you're going for the copy/paste. The DNC assumed Hillary was going to be the nominee and started planning their strategy to beat the GOP accordingly. It turns out they were right. Did you expect them to sit on their thumbs until the convention and only start planning what to do for the general election then? That's not what they (or the people who defended them) said they were doing, but I suppose that doesn't bother anyone if they're already supporting Hillary. Yes it was. They were preparing how they would conduct the campaign against the GOP based on who they thought would be the most likely to become the nominees on both sides. How could I have missed when they said "yes we are preparing for Hillary to be the nominee", back in May 2015? All I seem to remember is them vociferously denying that they had any such leanings. Not as if they were trying to usher in their presumed nominee, though that's what Bernie supporters were claiming while Hillary supporters claimed it was crazy. I think it's a little soon for the revisionist history already. What revisionist history? Do you not understand the difference between preparing for a likely scenario and actively trying to undermine the process to favor a nominee? Again, were you expecting the Democrats to sit on their thumbs until July 2016 before they started planning how they were going to campaign against the GOP? I expect them to be honest about working with a candidate like they were, or the money from the Koch brothers or any of the other crap trickling out. Truthfully, I was mostly just curious about the denial or the dismissal aspect. I figured we'd disagree on what the information meant. Again: the document describes how they were preparing to wage their campaign against the GOP. You have yet to point what is supposed to be problematic about it. On June 18 2016 18:58 RolleMcKnolle wrote: There is a difference between preparing for likely scenarios and preparing for exactly one scenario with exclusion of every other possibility. The tone of the document was not even considering the possibility of another candidate. This is one document, and at the time (May 2015) it was indeed unlikely that any other candidate would get the nomination. They were preparing for a HRC victory, and it turns out they were right. Again, what is supposed to be the issue here? When asked about the race they were not claiming that "well internally we think Hillary is the only person who can win so we're preparing for that, while externally we claim that's not the case as to give the appearance that we aren't already coordinating with her campaign". They were already discussing how they would defend Hillary (their chosen nominee) and then at the same time try to tell us they didn't do anything to protect their pick winning the nomination is actually a little insulting if anyone from her camp thinks people are that naive. There is no factual basis for the leap that you're making between "the likely nominee" and "their chosen nominee". It's as simple as that. This was a memo from the Clinton campaign about how to defeat Hillary's likely opponents. In addition, Democratic strategists outside the Clinton campaign were obviously preparing for different scenarios for the GE, and Hillary simply appeared to be the most likely to clinch the nomination at that point. There is nothing problematic about that memo whatsoever.
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On June 19 2016 04:46 oBlade wrote:I know it's also the weekend, but I have a suspicion Trump is starting a second break from the media/Fox/cable like he did in late March, hopefully to let some things cool down and blow over and so he can get it together for the convention. His campaign schedule is empty now. He apparently needs to raise funds at this point after months on the trial. http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/10/politics/mitt-romney-donald-trump-fundraising/He seems to be sincere when he talks about wanting to flip CA and NY, which would be great, but I don't know how realistic that path is. He's got a better chance of being competitive in NJ and OR, but wants to win bigly I guess. CA and NY are just too blue. If Hillary was indicted tomorrow on gross negligence or various mishandling classified documents, I say she still wins those states. I understand campaigning in both to not throw them to the wolves and the optics of that. He just can't flip the bluest of blues.
I'm still torn about whether he can unite the party at the convention. I think his campaigning after clinching the nomination has been terrible.
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There was a story (don't remember where I saw it) that GOP donors (and Reince) were even more wary after Trump made moves towards NY and CA. He's only shooting himself in the foot.
There was another story that he has like 30 on staff for the entire country? Forget flipping states, he's going to get crushed at this point.
But don't expect a change in tone from Trump. The man is 70, this is who he is. And in terms of campaigning... he doesn't have some other GOP contender to beat up on. The full brunt of what he says falls squarely back on himself. No more foils.
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On June 19 2016 05:58 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2016 04:46 oBlade wrote:I know it's also the weekend, but I have a suspicion Trump is starting a second break from the media/Fox/cable like he did in late March, hopefully to let some things cool down and blow over and so he can get it together for the convention. His campaign schedule is empty now. He apparently needs to raise funds at this point after months on the trial. http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/10/politics/mitt-romney-donald-trump-fundraising/He seems to be sincere when he talks about wanting to flip CA and NY, which would be great, but I don't know how realistic that path is. He's got a better chance of being competitive in NJ and OR, but wants to win bigly I guess. CA and NY are just too blue. If Hillary was indicted tomorrow on gross negligence or various mishandling classified documents, I say she still wins those states. I understand campaigning in both to not throw them to the wolves and the optics of that. He just can't flip the bluest of blues. I'm still torn about whether he can unite the party at the convention. I think his campaigning after clinching the nomination has been terrible. The more time passes the more I think he is not smart or a good strategist, it just happened his bombastic nasty style resonated with a radicalized base of the GOP.
He is making one really stupid mistake after another. And the time when the most stupid, ugly and non sensical his one liner were the better is over. It's not about winning right wing extremists anymore, but about convincing a country that doesn't like him. His best quality for winning the primary is his worst flaw for going any further.
Well I guess it's good news for the world. I used to think Bush was a disaster, I think he would be ten times worse.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
I wonder how the Republican Party will move forward and try to balance the need not to alienate the Trump base with the issues that he presents by being the nominee.
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On June 19 2016 06:09 Introvert wrote: There was a story (don't remember where I saw it) that GOP donors (and Reince) were even more wary after Trump made moves towards NY and CA. He's only shooting himself in the foot.
There was another story that he has like 30 on staff for the entire country? Forget flipping states, he's going to get crushed at this point.
But don't expect a change in tone from Trump. The man is 70, this is who he is. And in terms of campaigning... he doesn't have some other GOP contender to beat up on. The full brunt of what he says falls squarely back on himself. No more foils. His ground game has been inept: we saw that when Cruz snatched delegates and committee seats. I however understand not winning over GOP donors and Reince. The donor class gave us previous iterations of comprehensive immigration reform which was the betrayal giving Trump so much steam. I've wished Reince would resign and let a real leader (I'll take a marginally better leader given the times) take his place ever since his mismanagement of the debates. That being said, Trump could've done a much better job making a principled case for his positions to drum up support from reluctant donors or the right edge of GOP donors. He hasn't. Even his response to the Orlando shooting was dissapointing, I'm with Cruz's focus from the Senate floor+ Show Spoiler [response] +. Energize base, solicit donations, run with it against a weak Democratic candidate. And for the love of God, give conservatives some reason to vote for you besides immigration and tax policy, please Trump.
On June 19 2016 06:18 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2016 05:58 Danglars wrote:On June 19 2016 04:46 oBlade wrote:I know it's also the weekend, but I have a suspicion Trump is starting a second break from the media/Fox/cable like he did in late March, hopefully to let some things cool down and blow over and so he can get it together for the convention. His campaign schedule is empty now. He apparently needs to raise funds at this point after months on the trial. http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/10/politics/mitt-romney-donald-trump-fundraising/He seems to be sincere when he talks about wanting to flip CA and NY, which would be great, but I don't know how realistic that path is. He's got a better chance of being competitive in NJ and OR, but wants to win bigly I guess. CA and NY are just too blue. If Hillary was indicted tomorrow on gross negligence or various mishandling classified documents, I say she still wins those states. I understand campaigning in both to not throw them to the wolves and the optics of that. He just can't flip the bluest of blues. I'm still torn about whether he can unite the party at the convention. I think his campaigning after clinching the nomination has been terrible. The more time passes the more I think he is not smart or a good strategist, it just happened his bombastic nasty style resonated with a radicalized base of the GOP. He is making one really stupid mistake after another. And the time when the most stupid, ugly and non sensical his one liner were the better is over. It's not about winning right wing extremists anymore, but about convincing a country that doesn't like him. His best quality for winning the primary is his worst flaw for going any further. Well I guess it's good news for the world. I used to think Bush was a disaster, I think he would be ten times worse. I know we have different ideas of what a radicalized base and right wing extremists look like.
He's got great pull in a nation that's sick of mainstream media tropes on what you can and can't talk about. What words you can and can't use. What a great starting point to press home the arguments and standpoints that nobody hears about otherwise. To his credit, he's done that on immigration and that's the primary reason he will be the nominee. Nowadays, he's striking in nine different directions and the only consistent message is I will make government work now because it's me and I'm the best at making everything a success. Healthcare will be great, single payer will be great, because I know things I have experts it'll be fixed so fast it would make your head spin. Ditto trade policy (with awesome retro protectionist vibes), economy, you name it he doesn't have the fix he IS the fix. For a guy that's been on both sides of the issues through his entire public life, that's not a good enough argument to vote for him. He's not going to convince more of the traditional GOP base that way.
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Trump's problem was that he won the nomination, he'd have been better off not winning, but with a good delegate count, then trading his support in exchange for something. That would've been a decent strategy.
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On June 19 2016 06:49 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2016 06:09 Introvert wrote: There was a story (don't remember where I saw it) that GOP donors (and Reince) were even more wary after Trump made moves towards NY and CA. He's only shooting himself in the foot.
There was another story that he has like 30 on staff for the entire country? Forget flipping states, he's going to get crushed at this point.
But don't expect a change in tone from Trump. The man is 70, this is who he is. And in terms of campaigning... he doesn't have some other GOP contender to beat up on. The full brunt of what he says falls squarely back on himself. No more foils. His ground game has been inept: we saw that when Cruz snatched delegates and committee seats. I however understand not winning over GOP donors and Reince. The donor class gave us previous iterations of comprehensive immigration reform which was the betrayal giving Trump so much steam. I've wished Reince would resign and let a real leader (I'll take a marginally better leader given the times) take his place ever since his mismanagement of the debates. That being said, Trump could've done a much better job making a principled case for his positions to drum up support from reluctant donors or the right edge of GOP donors. He hasn't. Even his response to the Orlando shooting was dissapointing, I'm with Cruz's focus from the Senate floor + Show Spoiler [response] +. Energize base, solicit donations, run with it against a weak Democratic candidate. And for the love of God, give conservatives some reason to vote for you besides immigration and tax policy, please Trump.
It's because Trump has no principles. That became obvious to me late last year. And now he wants to reach Bernie people but not, say, Cruz people. Oh, and he endorsed Elmers in NC because she endorsed him.
There was a story or two (I don't know how accurate) that Trump never intended to actually win the nomination. He didn't plan for any of this, and he has no desire to start. I would say it's silly but I'm watching it happen.
I agree with the criticisms of GOP immigration donor base and Priebus, but all Trump has done is give them cover with his recent antics. Remember when Paul Manafort told GOP people that Trump would start acting more presidential? Trump came out and axed that idea. I don't think Trump cares enough to try and win. When he loses he'll just blame the party so the failure of his will be someone else's fault.
That senate speech is the type of thing Trump should have done, not taking congratulations while claiming to not take congratulations.
EDit:
Hey, look!
Donald Trump continues to diverge with the rest of the GOP on issues of gun control, reaffirming in an interview to air Sunday that those on the terror watch list shouldn't be able to buy guns.
"We have to make sure that people that are terrorists or have even an inclination toward terrorism cannot buy weapons, guns," the presumptive Republican nominee said in an interview to air Sunday on "This Week." When asked if his position is that those on the terror watch list shouldn't be able to purchase a gun, Trump responded, "I'd like to see that, and I'd like to say it. And it's simpler. It's just simpler."
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/284017-trump-says-those-on-terror-watch-list-should-be-barred
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Apple will not contribute funds or other resources for the Republican National Convention due to presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump’s prejudiced remarks, Politico reported on Saturday.
The decision by one of the United States’ largest and most popular companies is the biggest corporate defection from the Republican convention, where the party will formally nominate Donald Trump. And it marks a significant win for progressive groups, which are pressuring major companies to boycott the convention over Trump.
Apple specifically pointed to Trump’s comments about minority groups, immigrants and women in explaining its choice, two sources with knowledge of the decision told Politico.
“The Apple news raises the bar for other corporations,” Rashad Robinson, a spokesman for ColorOfChange PAC, said in a statement. The PAC is leading efforts to pressure companies not to participate in this year’s GOP gathering.
“Not only has Apple declined to support the Republican National Convention, but they’ve explicitly told Republican leaders that Trump’s bigoted rhetoric is the reason that they’re sitting out,” Robinson said. “This is what real corporate responsibility looks like.”
There is likely little love lost between the tech giant and the presumptive GOP nominee. Trump called for a boycott of Apple in February when the company refused to unlock the iPhone of one of the gunmen in the mass shooting in San Bernardino, California in December. (Nonetheless, Trump continued to use Apple products after his pronouncement.)
An Apple spokesman declined to comment. The Republican National Committee did not immediately responded to a request for comment.
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He only needs to scrape by electorally, which I think will be possible if the team (or him) at some level accepts it, even if not publicly. He doesn't need to win the popular vote; that is, CA and IL and NY could pile 100% against him and it doesn't matter. That's where national polling can mislead.
Here's my starting point: http://www.270towin.com/maps/5LbyE I think those 12 gray/light states are the most likely ones that right not we can't be sure how they'll end up voting. But it'll change also, depending on where the G.E. campaigns start to take off, for example, MI could be more competitive than NJ. There are a couple states that should come in pairs if a candidate won the "harder" one of them. Like if he got NJ, I'd also expect him to pick up PA, and I wouldn't expect him to win VA but lose NC, but that's not set in stone. In 2000 GWB managed with Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Trump's clearest win would be getting PA and FL (big states, doesn't even need VA, he can also lose NC and replace it with CO+NM and make it). It's uphill for him of course, but I think it'll be quite close.
I don't think it's accurate to say this was ever about the Trump brand or whatever. Ben Carson was definitely doing a book tour, but Trump has been thinking about this forever, maybe longer than HRC has (if anyone thought that was even possible): + Show Spoiler +You can ignore the soundtrack and the obvious message of support, the point is he may have a huge ego, but he's not running just to run.
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Barack Obama warned on Saturday that climate change could ravage many of America’s vaunted national parks, criticizing political opponents who “pay lip service” to areas of natural beauty while opposing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
During a visit to Yosemite national park, Obama said climate change was “no longer a threat, it’s a reality”. The first sitting president to visit Yosemite since John F Kennedy in 1962 said the famed glacial valley was already experiencing changes due to rising temperatures.
“Here in Yosemite, meadows are drying up, bird ranges are shifting farther northward, mammals are being forced further upslope,” Obama said. “Yosemite’s famous glacier, once a mile wide, is almost gone. We are also facing longer, more expensive wildfire seasons.
“Rising temperatures could mean no more glaciers in Glacier national park, no more Joshua trees in Joshua Tree national park. Rising seas can destroy vital ecosystems in the Everglades and at some point could even threaten icons like the Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island. That’s not the America I want to pass on to the next generation.”
According to the National Parks Service, which marks its centenary in August, many fragile ecosystems are “in danger of disappearing forever”. The service said glaciers could be completely gone from Glacier national park by 2020, park facilities in Alaska are sinking due to thawing permafrost and archaeological sites are under threat from sea level rise.
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Oh hey, I thought this thread was closed.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
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No changes? Really. Well, the discourse has improved. It seems to have had some good.
Also, I do hope the Democratic senators realize that if Trump is supporting your measure, it's time to drop it.
Because it really is an ineffective and questionably legal measure they're pushing. Expanding the use of the no-fly list and compromising "due process" is ineffective at best. Effective gun control, that is not, nor would it have prevented Orlando.
An expansion of background checks yes. The use of secret lists, no.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
the lists are just one source of information they could use in the check.
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On June 18 2016 21:38 farvacola wrote:That's not a valid legal citation.....you need to include the title, dawg. I'm sure you mean 8 USC 1128(f), and yes, the scope of immigration law has always given the president wide discretion to narrow or broaden entry into the US. That's why folks are legitimately fearful of a Trump presidency  .
Ironically the people most scared are the people completely unaffected by his immigration policy.
It's almost like the left is using fear tactics to make them fear something they shouldn't!
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On June 19 2016 04:53 Doodsmack wrote: Let's talk about whether Trump's insinuation that Obama was on the side of the Orlando attacker was accidental. And whether the media put those words in his mouth as part of their leftist spin.
I don't think it's even debatable.
The W. Post wrote a headline accusing Trump of saying Obama was literally involved.
Trump did no such thing.
Trump accused him of siding with extremism because he's more concerned with attacking Trump and fighting 'islamophobia' after a violent terrorist attack than the perpetrators of the attack and islamoterrorism which is an actual problem.
It's assbackwards and the W. Post is a joke to begin with. Good riddance getting their press pass revoked.
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