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On February 05 2016 23:59 The_Templar wrote: That poll is really weird, and I'm not sure what to take from it yet.
I think the fair takeaway is what I said. That the inevitability and electability arguments are struggling. Polls for weeks have shown that Sanders matches up better vs Republicans and it deals another blow to the idea that Bernie doesn't have wide enough appeal to beat her outside of the whitest states.
If Hillary's more frequent Spanish tweets are any indication I suspect their own data in NV is showing what I mentioned before, that her support in Hispanic communities isn't as strong as the media suggests.
I don't think we can read too much into polls showing Sanders doing better in head to head match ups against the Republicans. The GOP has been spending decades attacking Clinton, but hasn't touched Sanders. This would change in a big way if he wins the nomination. The OMG SOCIALIST!!! attack ads basically write themselves.
That's Paul Krugman's argument. The effects of attack ads and negative press are essentially baked into Clinton's numbers. Where she is now is probably her floor for the general election. Sanders hasn't had a decades-long smear campaign against him to weigh him down.
Of course, media narrative is media narrative. They love them some head to head matchups even if they're almost entirely spurious at this point. It's reasonable to question the inevitability of Clinton at this point, but she's clearly electable. She might be less electable than Sanders or she might be more electable, but it's not head to head polls that will help us discern which.
Fundamentally I'm inclined to think that Clinton is more electable than Sanders, in large part because I'm sure she will do everything she possibly can to bring Sanders' base into the fold. I'm not as confident that Sanders knows how to energize and appeal to the demographics that aren't already in his camp.
For that reason I'm more interested in what happens in South Carolina and similar states. They'll speak considerably to Sanders' broader appeal.
I don't think I have met a single 40+ year old democrat who likes Sanders other than my batshit crazy mom. And she's rooting for Bloomberg because she's insane. They see him as a loon. I am an engineer in Oregon, so the demographic is typically pretty liberal. My impression is that the older folks have been around long enough to know when something ain't gonna happen. They think of him as a distraction and not something to take seriously.
I think that older people also tend to take more pride in "The American way" and are somewhat brainwashed into thinking it is good because it is what we have. Some sort of weird cyclic reasoning where we unduly admire what we have because it is what we are. So when Sanders calls for a revolution, they also somewhat see it as a revolution against themselves, or so I'd think.
edit: my mom's friend actually has a huge boner for Sanders and she's like 60.
Florida is one of several U.S. states now reporting a few isolated cases of people infected with the Zika virus. In response, Florida's Gov. Rick Scott has declared a public health emergency in five counties in hopes of getting ahead of the virus's spread.
So far, just 12 cases of the mosquito-borne illness have been reported to health authorities in Florida, all of them among travelers who contracted the disease outside the U.S. But Scott figures it's only a matter of time before the virus starts showing up among mosquitoes in some regions of the state, too.
"We have to ensure that Florida's safe," he says. "Just like in a hurricane, we always say to ourselves, 'We'll prepare for the worst and hope for the best.' And we're going to do everything we can to stay ahead of the Zika virus."
Scott is calling for stepped-up monitoring, urging that special attention be paid to mosquito control in Miami-Dade and four other counties where Zika cases have been reported. He's also asked the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to provide Florida with at least 1,000 antibody test kits so it can check people who traveled abroad and had symptoms of Zika — especially pregnant women.
So far, Florida's Zika cases have been restricted to people who recently returned from travel to Haiti, Venezuela, Colombia or El Salvador.
With its mild climate, Florida is susceptible to mosquito-borne diseases. Over the years, the state has experienced sporadic outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya — other tropical diseases carried by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, which is prevalent in Florida.
Howard Dean needs to calm down with his hillary shilling. He's trying to make her a victim over issues she was willing to bring up. Once the money starts coming in, you truly do your part for the establishment. Msnbc has been annoying to watch this morning.
Edit: I find it hilarious that hillary is trying to claim that she wasn't planning on running in 2016.
On February 06 2016 01:55 Mohdoo wrote: I don't think I have met a single 40+ year old democrat who likes Sanders other than my batshit crazy mom. And she's rooting for Bloomberg because she's insane. They see him as a loon. I am an engineer in Oregon, so the demographic is typically pretty liberal. My impression is that the older folks have been around long enough to know when something ain't gonna happen. They think of him as a distraction and not something to take seriously.
I think that older people also tend to take more pride in "The American way" and are somewhat brainwashed into thinking it is good because it is what we have. Some sort of weird cyclic reasoning where we unduly admire what we have because it is what we are. So when Sanders calls for a revolution, they also somewhat see it as a revolution against themselves, or so I'd think.
edit: my mom's friend actually has a huge boner for Sanders and she's like 60.
Keep in mind that, given that you're living in the Pacific Northwest, reactions to Sanders' Brooklyn sensibilities may be skewed towards unfamiliarity.
Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has dramatically cut into the nationwide lead of primary rival Hillary Clinton, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.
The poll released Friday finds Clinton leading the race with 44 percent support, compared to 42 percent support for Sanders, within the survey's margin of error. The last iteration of the poll in December had Clinton leading Sanders nationwide by a 61-30 point margin.
“Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
The poll also finds that Sanders matches up better with top Republican primary candidates than Clinton.
On February 06 2016 03:32 Mohdoo wrote: Are we certain Obama will endorse Clinton?
Yes. Because Sanders is the Republican's only plausible path to the white house. The Obama policy legacy will be torn to shreds if a Republican get in the white house and Obama will do what he needs to to keep that from happening.
Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has dramatically cut into the nationwide lead of primary rival Hillary Clinton, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.
The poll released Friday finds Clinton leading the race with 44 percent support, compared to 42 percent support for Sanders, within the survey's margin of error. The last iteration of the poll in December had Clinton leading Sanders nationwide by a 61-30 point margin.
“Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
The poll also finds that Sanders matches up better with top Republican primary candidates than Clinton.
Meh, honestly hearing this bugs me. It bugged me when Clinton said it multiple times in one of the debates as a weird "I'm not really gonna answer this question, just gonna point and say 'at least we ain't them'" tactic, so hearing it from Sanders doesn't make me like it anymore.
What I did find somewhat entertaining was that since this is normally one of Clinton's lines, the look she gave him when he said it was funny. Similar to when he said "if Flint were a middle class, white neighborhood, I doubt we'd see the same happening" - you could almost see the daggers shooting from her eyes.
On February 06 2016 03:32 Mohdoo wrote: Are we certain Obama will endorse Clinton?
It's not standard for a President to endorse anyone explicitly, is it?
Biden yesterday:
Not sure if it's my bias, but that's probably as close to an endorsement for Sanders as you'd get without explicitly saying it (in fact, actually explicitly saying "I'm not talking about a particular candidate).
On February 06 2016 03:02 Shin_Gouki wrote: Howard Dean needs to calm down with his hillary shilling. He's trying to make her a victim over issues she was willing to bring up. Once the money starts coming in, you truly do your part for the establishment. Msnbc has been annoying to watch this morning.
Edit: I find it hilarious that hillary is trying to claim that she wasn't planning on running in 2016.
Technically true. Hillary was planning on standing down in 2016 after having done her 8 years.
Also if Flint were a middle class white neighbourhood it's unlikely the city would have fallen apart and had to start fucking shit up to make cuts. It's not just "bad things happen to poor black people because the world hates them", you have to also include the "bad things happen to poor people because they're poor" factor.
On February 06 2016 03:32 Mohdoo wrote: Are we certain Obama will endorse Clinton?
No. While there's some preference and support, as the sitting President of the same party, I think he'll avoid formally endorsing anyone in the primary, and back whoever wins it.
HSBC has been fined $470m (£325m) for “abusive mortgage practices” in relation to the 2007-2009 housing crisis in which millions of people lost their homes.
The British bank on Friday agreed to pay the fine to settle US federal and state investigations into alleged abuses against homeowners struggling to keep up with mortgage payments during the 2008 global financial crisis.
“There has to be one set of rules for everyone, no matter how rich or how powerful, and that includes lenders who engage in abusive business practices,” New York attorney general Eric Schneiderman said in a statement. “The settlement announced today is a joint partnership that will create tough new servicing standards that will ensure fair treatment for HSBC’s borrowers and provide relief to customers across New York State and across the country.”
The settlement with the US Department of Justice and 49 states plus DC centres on allegations that the bank “robo-signed” thousands of foreclosure documents – leading to evictions – without properly reviewing the paperwork.
As part of the fine, HSBC was ordered to pay $59.3m in compensation to borrowers who lost their homes between 2008 and 2012. The money might have to stretch very far, as there are more than 135,000 eligible borrowers in New York state alone.
On February 06 2016 03:32 Mohdoo wrote: Are we certain Obama will endorse Clinton?
No. While there's some preference and support, as the sitting President of the same party, I think he'll avoid formally endorsing anyone in the primary, and back whoever wins it.
This is the correct answer. If Clinton loses to Sanders after Obama endorses her it would be pretty bad.
On February 06 2016 01:55 Mohdoo wrote: I don't think I have met a single 40+ year old democrat who likes Sanders other than my batshit crazy mom. And she's rooting for Bloomberg because she's insane. They see him as a loon. I am an engineer in Oregon, so the demographic is typically pretty liberal. My impression is that the older folks have been around long enough to know when something ain't gonna happen. They think of him as a distraction and not something to take seriously.
I think that older people also tend to take more pride in "The American way" and are somewhat brainwashed into thinking it is good because it is what we have. Some sort of weird cyclic reasoning where we unduly admire what we have because it is what we are. So when Sanders calls for a revolution, they also somewhat see it as a revolution against themselves, or so I'd think.
edit: my mom's friend actually has a huge boner for Sanders and she's like 60.
I don't know why you're using your anecdotes as if they hold any weight. You're from Oregon right? A poll last year showed Clinton and Sanders were very close to each other.
The July 25-27 survey by Portland-based DHM Research shows Clinton, the former secretary of state, leading the Democratic primary in Oregon with 44 percent of the vote to 39 percent for Sanders, a Vermont senator.
On February 06 2016 03:54 KwarK wrote: Also if Flint were a middle class white neighbourhood it's unlikely the city would have fallen apart and had to start fucking shit up to make cuts. It's not just "bad things happen to poor black people because the world hates them", you have to also include the "bad things happen to poor people because they're poor" factor.
Yes. And also the "soccer moms" are simply more skilled at and more prone to advocacy. I have seen the water coming out of those pipes, even if it didn't have lead in it, I wouldn't drink it, and in the town my aunt lives in the Mayor (or Emergency manager) would resign within a day so as to avoid them, their magic knowledge of how to convene an emergency meeting of the city council, and the inevitable demands that the tap water that looks like raw sewage be drank by all the city officials.
And with social advocacy in general, no one takes you seriously if you have a chant that includes "hey hey ho ho" or "what do we want? <pause> "when do we want it? <pause>"
On February 06 2016 01:55 Mohdoo wrote: I don't think I have met a single 40+ year old democrat who likes Sanders other than my batshit crazy mom. And she's rooting for Bloomberg because she's insane. They see him as a loon. I am an engineer in Oregon, so the demographic is typically pretty liberal. My impression is that the older folks have been around long enough to know when something ain't gonna happen. They think of him as a distraction and not something to take seriously.
I think that older people also tend to take more pride in "The American way" and are somewhat brainwashed into thinking it is good because it is what we have. Some sort of weird cyclic reasoning where we unduly admire what we have because it is what we are. So when Sanders calls for a revolution, they also somewhat see it as a revolution against themselves, or so I'd think.
edit: my mom's friend actually has a huge boner for Sanders and she's like 60.
I don't know why you're using your anecdotes as if they hold any weight. You're from Oregon right? A poll last year showed Clinton and Sanders were very close to each other.
The July 25-27 survey by Portland-based DHM Research shows Clinton, the former secretary of state, leading the Democratic primary in Oregon with 44 percent of the vote to 39 percent for Sanders, a Vermont senator.
I am certain Sanders is ahead in Oregon now. I have never seen so many political bumper stickers supporting a single candidate. My point was just that Sanders seems incapable of breaking the 40-70 crowd because they fundamentally disagree with socialism and his view on the radical changes that need to happen in our country.
I will be absolutely shocked if Sanders does not win Oregon. While I can't speak for Eastern or Southern Oregon (basically giant redneck camps, as evidenced by the recent nature reserve shit), Western Oregon is feeling the bern big time. Similar to Washington, a lot of our population is in very progressive areas and we tend to dictate state policy. This makes the rednecks down south and to the east really salty.
On February 06 2016 06:28 TheLordofAwesome wrote: tl seems to have a LOT of liberals (by US standards, though probably not by European ones) on it. I wonder why this demographic is so...
PhD % as a function of political leaning, % of college professors with liberal leaning...
It should be no surprise that a game like BW would have a similar distribution. The reason Trump is doing so well in the GOP primary can be used to explain the demographic of TL.
EPT
