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On January 27 2016 05:40 Introvert wrote:
I will say that in the context of this "does Trump win the nomination?" question that he very well could, I've always said it was possible. But most people seem to know why Trump is doing well. The GOP apparatus sucks, and the voters are tired of it.
That and the establishment candidates are weaksauce this time around.
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On January 27 2016 05:40 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 05:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:29 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 04:13 Mohdoo wrote:
Am I the only one who still can't process the idea of trump being the gop nominee? We are days from Iowa, which looks good. Iowa was supposed to be the one state he doesn't win. Wtf is going on . People still seem to think somehow, someway, Trump won't win, no idea what they are thinking. Trump represents precisely what I've been saying the Republican party has been for years and people like introvert have been snidely saying I didn't know anything about. You still don't. For instance, in the last Iowa poll I saw, Trump's most commanding lead is among moderate and liberal republicans. That's not what you've been saying at all. Besides, casting the same incorrect analysis on Trump as you have for years on most Republicans doesn't make you right. Considering how you respond to my positions I don't think you even have a clue what I've been saying. I'm curious though what it is you think I was saying that was incorrect? I will say that in the context of this "does Trump win the nomination?" question that he very well could, I've always said it was possible. But most people seem to know why Trump is doing well. The GOP apparatus sucks, and the voters are tired of it.
Have you really?
On July 11 2015 13:47 Introvert wrote:
... What's more interesting is how much the lefties are obsessed with him, when most of them (should) know he isn't going to win.
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On January 27 2016 06:06 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 05:40 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 05:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:29 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 04:13 Mohdoo wrote:
Am I the only one who still can't process the idea of trump being the gop nominee? We are days from Iowa, which looks good. Iowa was supposed to be the one state he doesn't win. Wtf is going on . People still seem to think somehow, someway, Trump won't win, no idea what they are thinking. Trump represents precisely what I've been saying the Republican party has been for years and people like introvert have been snidely saying I didn't know anything about. You still don't. For instance, in the last Iowa poll I saw, Trump's most commanding lead is among moderate and liberal republicans. That's not what you've been saying at all. Besides, casting the same incorrect analysis on Trump as you have for years on most Republicans doesn't make you right. Considering how you respond to my positions I don't think you even have a clue what I've been saying. I'm curious though what it is you think I was saying that was incorrect? I will say that in the context of this "does Trump win the nomination?" question that he very well could, I've always said it was possible. But most people seem to know why Trump is doing well. The GOP apparatus sucks, and the voters are tired of it. Have you really? Show nested quote +On July 11 2015 13:47 Introvert wrote:
... What's more interesting is how much the lefties are obsessed with him, when most of them (should) know he isn't going to win.
I stand corrected. I know I've been saying he could win for a while.
Glad you went looking though, lol. That's months ago.
Edit: rereading that, it looks more like a prediction. But no matter. Re edit: i hate working on phones with internet that craps out randomly.
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The last 2 GOP candidates didn't even win Iowa. I'm not even sure why Iowa is such a big deal unless you are outside of the top 3
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On January 27 2016 06:28 Sadist wrote:
The last 2 GOP candidates didn't even win Iowa. I'm not even sure why Iowa is such a big deal unless you are outside of the top 3
It is mostly a test of how much of Trumps supporters actually get out to vote.
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On January 27 2016 06:18 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 06:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:40 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 05:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:29 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 04:13 Mohdoo wrote:
Am I the only one who still can't process the idea of trump being the gop nominee? We are days from Iowa, which looks good. Iowa was supposed to be the one state he doesn't win. Wtf is going on . People still seem to think somehow, someway, Trump won't win, no idea what they are thinking. Trump represents precisely what I've been saying the Republican party has been for years and people like introvert have been snidely saying I didn't know anything about. You still don't. For instance, in the last Iowa poll I saw, Trump's most commanding lead is among moderate and liberal republicans. That's not what you've been saying at all. Besides, casting the same incorrect analysis on Trump as you have for years on most Republicans doesn't make you right. Considering how you respond to my positions I don't think you even have a clue what I've been saying. I'm curious though what it is you think I was saying that was incorrect? I will say that in the context of this "does Trump win the nomination?" question that he very well could, I've always said it was possible. But most people seem to know why Trump is doing well. The GOP apparatus sucks, and the voters are tired of it. Have you really? On July 11 2015 13:47 Introvert wrote:
... What's more interesting is how much the lefties are obsessed with him, when most of them (should) know he isn't going to win. I stand corrected. I know I've been saying he could win for a while, guess I forgot about that. Glad you went looking though, lol. That's months ago.
I just remember stuff that's all. So I knew you weren't telling the truth when you said that you "always said it was possible"
I knew from before the first debate that Trump would crush the competition, and you said he wouldn't and tried to dismiss those who saw what you didn't. Now you're portraying that you've always thought Trump winning was a possibility despite your previous flat out dismissal of Trump's chances
You thought Trump would lose, Trump is crushing the competition as I predicted.
At minimum, I simply had a better read on the Republican race than you did.
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I am not convinced Trump’s ground game will even exist, tbh. We will see if there was anything behind the hype or just polling used for cheap ratings, buzzfeed style.
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On January 27 2016 06:28 Sadist wrote:
The last 2 GOP candidates didn't even win Iowa. I'm not even sure why Iowa is such a big deal unless you are outside of the top 3
It's a big deal because if Cruz loses, the nomination goes to Trump (as he probably wins 50 states).
EDIT: Having talked to hundreds of people in Iowa, it exists, just not in the traditional way. He doesn't have a bunch of field offices and staff, he's got a bunch of pissed off people itching to pick a fight.
I spoke with one Trump supporting father who said he would kick his own daughter out of the house if she caucused for a Democrat. Pretty sure folks like that will make it to the caucus.
There is a very interesting dynamic that will play out since it's a caucus and not a primary. People's votes are public and they are surrounded by their neighbors.
There's a real question about how arguments between Cruz supporters and Trump supporters play out in such a dynamic. Iowa is Trump's weakest spot, if no one can beat him there they probably won't beat him anywhere (Cruz may get Texas, his 2nd home after Canada  ).
With most candidates unlikely to meet viability thresholds in the caucuses there's going to be some heated discussions trying to pull those supporters to each camp.
Considering Trump's "style" is much easier for an average voter to replicate I think Trump might do even better than the polls suggest. But the shame I've seen from Trump supporters (even outside Trump rallies) gives me pause that they will be emboldened enough to really go through with it.
Luckily we have less than a week to wait before we find out. Other than a blowout/Cruz&Clinton loss, the most interesting information likely to come out of the caucus are turnouts though.
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On January 27 2016 06:32 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 06:28 Sadist wrote:
The last 2 GOP candidates didn't even win Iowa. I'm not even sure why Iowa is such a big deal unless you are outside of the top 3 It is mostly a test of how much of Trumps supporters actually get out to vote.
That and it's meaningful when a candidate like Trump wins Iowa. The past two wins went to candidates that were natural favorites of the religious right (Huckabee and Santorum). If Trump wins in a primary that heavily favors candidates like Cruz it has implications for primaries down the line.
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Trump definitely has an Iowa operation, I linked some details about it from all the way back in September/ August-- yes, it really has been that long.
I doubt any of the Republican candidates have operations of the scale that Hillary and Bernie have though. Those two are flyering and canvassing like crazy, I read they're even doing dry runs to mobilize their people for the caucuses.
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This is going to be a long week. So much suspense.
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On January 27 2016 06:40 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 06:28 Sadist wrote:
The last 2 GOP candidates didn't even win Iowa. I'm not even sure why Iowa is such a big deal unless you are outside of the top 3 It's a big deal because if Cruz loses, the nomination goes to Trump (as he probably wins 50 )
That may end up happening because of Cruz's religious right faction being strong in Iowa but I think it's far from a done deal. There's a lot of time for scandal and dumb shit to come out
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On January 27 2016 06:59 Sadist wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 06:40 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 06:28 Sadist wrote:
The last 2 GOP candidates didn't even win Iowa. I'm not even sure why Iowa is such a big deal unless you are outside of the top 3 It's a big deal because if Cruz loses, the nomination goes to Trump (as he probably wins 50 ) That may end up happening because of Cruz's religious right faction being strong in Iowa but I think it's far from a done deal. There's a lot of time for scandal and dumb shit to come out
Well they are putting out "The Mad World of Donald Trump" which will have a woman saying he did basically the same thing to her as he's doing to Megyn Kelly. Trump's lawyer already came out and basically said "you can't rape your wife" in response to rape allegations against Trump, so I doubt there is a scandal in his past that would actually make him lose.
As Trump himself said he "could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?"
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On January 27 2016 06:38 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 06:18 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 06:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:40 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 05:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:29 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 04:13 Mohdoo wrote:
Am I the only one who still can't process the idea of trump being the gop nominee? We are days from Iowa, which looks good. Iowa was supposed to be the one state he doesn't win. Wtf is going on . People still seem to think somehow, someway, Trump won't win, no idea what they are thinking. Trump represents precisely what I've been saying the Republican party has been for years and people like introvert have been snidely saying I didn't know anything about. You still don't. For instance, in the last Iowa poll I saw, Trump's most commanding lead is among moderate and liberal republicans. That's not what you've been saying at all. Besides, casting the same incorrect analysis on Trump as you have for years on most Republicans doesn't make you right. Considering how you respond to my positions I don't think you even have a clue what I've been saying. I'm curious though what it is you think I was saying that was incorrect? I will say that in the context of this "does Trump win the nomination?" question that he very well could, I've always said it was possible. But most people seem to know why Trump is doing well. The GOP apparatus sucks, and the voters are tired of it. Have you really? On July 11 2015 13:47 Introvert wrote:
... What's more interesting is how much the lefties are obsessed with him, when most of them (should) know he isn't going to win. I stand corrected. I know I've been saying he could win for a while, guess I forgot about that. Glad you went looking though, lol. That's months ago. I just remember stuff that's all. So I knew you weren't telling the truth when you said that you "always said it was possible" I knew from before the first debate that Trump would crush the competition, and you said he wouldn't and tried to dismiss those who saw what you didn't. Now you're portraying that you've always thought Trump winning was a possibility despite your previous flat out dismissal of Trump's chances You thought Trump would lose, Trump is crushing the competition as I predicted. At minimum, I simply had a better read on the Republican race than you did.
About Trump, yes. And I genuinely don't recall making that previous prediction. And I was wrong, Trump is a bigger part of this than I forsaw, but that hardly lends credence to the multiple other areas in which your understanding is lackluster. Every time you make an argument about conservatives and tax revenue, for example, I cringe. But that's a different topic I suppose.
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On January 27 2016 07:17 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 06:38 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 06:18 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 06:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:40 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 05:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:29 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 04:13 Mohdoo wrote:
Am I the only one who still can't process the idea of trump being the gop nominee? We are days from Iowa, which looks good. Iowa was supposed to be the one state he doesn't win. Wtf is going on . People still seem to think somehow, someway, Trump won't win, no idea what they are thinking. Trump represents precisely what I've been saying the Republican party has been for years and people like introvert have been snidely saying I didn't know anything about. You still don't. For instance, in the last Iowa poll I saw, Trump's most commanding lead is among moderate and liberal republicans. That's not what you've been saying at all. Besides, casting the same incorrect analysis on Trump as you have for years on most Republicans doesn't make you right. Considering how you respond to my positions I don't think you even have a clue what I've been saying. I'm curious though what it is you think I was saying that was incorrect? I will say that in the context of this "does Trump win the nomination?" question that he very well could, I've always said it was possible. But most people seem to know why Trump is doing well. The GOP apparatus sucks, and the voters are tired of it. Have you really? On July 11 2015 13:47 Introvert wrote:
... What's more interesting is how much the lefties are obsessed with him, when most of them (should) know he isn't going to win. I stand corrected. I know I've been saying he could win for a while, guess I forgot about that. Glad you went looking though, lol. That's months ago. I just remember stuff that's all. So I knew you weren't telling the truth when you said that you "always said it was possible" I knew from before the first debate that Trump would crush the competition, and you said he wouldn't and tried to dismiss those who saw what you didn't. Now you're portraying that you've always thought Trump winning was a possibility despite your previous flat out dismissal of Trump's chances You thought Trump would lose, Trump is crushing the competition as I predicted. At minimum, I simply had a better read on the Republican race than you did. About Trump, yes. And I genuinely don't recall making that previous prediction. And I was wrong, Trump is a bigger part of this than I forsaw, but that hardly lends credence to the multiple other areas in which your understanding is lackluster. Every time you make an argument about conservatives and tax revenue, for example, I cringe. But that's a different topic I suppose.
I think most people didn't expect Trump to get this far and those who did probably did so for the wrong reasons.
Its all fine and now we can just sit back and watch the horror show unfold ><
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On January 27 2016 07:21 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 07:17 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 06:38 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 06:18 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 06:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:40 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 05:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:29 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 04:13 Mohdoo wrote:
Am I the only one who still can't process the idea of trump being the gop nominee? We are days from Iowa, which looks good. Iowa was supposed to be the one state he doesn't win. Wtf is going on . People still seem to think somehow, someway, Trump won't win, no idea what they are thinking. Trump represents precisely what I've been saying the Republican party has been for years and people like introvert have been snidely saying I didn't know anything about. You still don't. For instance, in the last Iowa poll I saw, Trump's most commanding lead is among moderate and liberal republicans. That's not what you've been saying at all. Besides, casting the same incorrect analysis on Trump as you have for years on most Republicans doesn't make you right. Considering how you respond to my positions I don't think you even have a clue what I've been saying. I'm curious though what it is you think I was saying that was incorrect? I will say that in the context of this "does Trump win the nomination?" question that he very well could, I've always said it was possible. But most people seem to know why Trump is doing well. The GOP apparatus sucks, and the voters are tired of it. Have you really? On July 11 2015 13:47 Introvert wrote:
... What's more interesting is how much the lefties are obsessed with him, when most of them (should) know he isn't going to win. I stand corrected. I know I've been saying he could win for a while, guess I forgot about that. Glad you went looking though, lol. That's months ago. I just remember stuff that's all. So I knew you weren't telling the truth when you said that you "always said it was possible" I knew from before the first debate that Trump would crush the competition, and you said he wouldn't and tried to dismiss those who saw what you didn't. Now you're portraying that you've always thought Trump winning was a possibility despite your previous flat out dismissal of Trump's chances You thought Trump would lose, Trump is crushing the competition as I predicted. At minimum, I simply had a better read on the Republican race than you did. About Trump, yes. And I genuinely don't recall making that previous prediction. And I was wrong, Trump is a bigger part of this than I forsaw, but that hardly lends credence to the multiple other areas in which your understanding is lackluster. Every time you make an argument about conservatives and tax revenue, for example, I cringe. But that's a different topic I suppose. I think most people didn't expect Trump to get this far and those who did probably did so for the wrong reasons. Its all fine and now we can just sit back and watch the horror show unfold ><
I didn't think the more center GOP members would go for him. Those guys are normally reliable mush candidate voters.
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On January 27 2016 07:22 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 07:21 Gorsameth wrote:On January 27 2016 07:17 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 06:38 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 06:18 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 06:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:40 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 05:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:29 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:
[quote]
People still seem to think somehow, someway, Trump won't win, no idea what they are thinking.
Trump represents precisely what I've been saying the Republican party has been for years and people like introvert have been snidely saying I didn't know anything about.
You still don't. For instance, in the last Iowa poll I saw, Trump's most commanding lead is among moderate and liberal republicans. That's not what you've been saying at all. Besides, casting the same incorrect analysis on Trump as you have for years on most Republicans doesn't make you right. Considering how you respond to my positions I don't think you even have a clue what I've been saying. I'm curious though what it is you think I was saying that was incorrect? I will say that in the context of this "does Trump win the nomination?" question that he very well could, I've always said it was possible. But most people seem to know why Trump is doing well. The GOP apparatus sucks, and the voters are tired of it. Have you really? On July 11 2015 13:47 Introvert wrote:
... What's more interesting is how much the lefties are obsessed with him, when most of them (should) know he isn't going to win. I stand corrected. I know I've been saying he could win for a while, guess I forgot about that. Glad you went looking though, lol. That's months ago. I just remember stuff that's all. So I knew you weren't telling the truth when you said that you "always said it was possible" I knew from before the first debate that Trump would crush the competition, and you said he wouldn't and tried to dismiss those who saw what you didn't. Now you're portraying that you've always thought Trump winning was a possibility despite your previous flat out dismissal of Trump's chances You thought Trump would lose, Trump is crushing the competition as I predicted. At minimum, I simply had a better read on the Republican race than you did. About Trump, yes. And I genuinely don't recall making that previous prediction. And I was wrong, Trump is a bigger part of this than I forsaw, but that hardly lends credence to the multiple other areas in which your understanding is lackluster. Every time you make an argument about conservatives and tax revenue, for example, I cringe. But that's a different topic I suppose. I think most people didn't expect Trump to get this far and those who did probably did so for the wrong reasons. Its all fine and now we can just sit back and watch the horror show unfold >< I didn't think the more center GOP members would go for him. Those guys are normally reliable mush candidate voters.
Technically, nobody has gone for him yet...
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On January 27 2016 07:21 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 07:17 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 06:38 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 06:18 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 06:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:40 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 05:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:29 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 04:13 Mohdoo wrote:
Am I the only one who still can't process the idea of trump being the gop nominee? We are days from Iowa, which looks good. Iowa was supposed to be the one state he doesn't win. Wtf is going on . People still seem to think somehow, someway, Trump won't win, no idea what they are thinking. Trump represents precisely what I've been saying the Republican party has been for years and people like introvert have been snidely saying I didn't know anything about. You still don't. For instance, in the last Iowa poll I saw, Trump's most commanding lead is among moderate and liberal republicans. That's not what you've been saying at all. Besides, casting the same incorrect analysis on Trump as you have for years on most Republicans doesn't make you right. Considering how you respond to my positions I don't think you even have a clue what I've been saying. I'm curious though what it is you think I was saying that was incorrect? I will say that in the context of this "does Trump win the nomination?" question that he very well could, I've always said it was possible. But most people seem to know why Trump is doing well. The GOP apparatus sucks, and the voters are tired of it. Have you really? On July 11 2015 13:47 Introvert wrote:
... What's more interesting is how much the lefties are obsessed with him, when most of them (should) know he isn't going to win. I stand corrected. I know I've been saying he could win for a while, guess I forgot about that. Glad you went looking though, lol. That's months ago. I just remember stuff that's all. So I knew you weren't telling the truth when you said that you "always said it was possible" I knew from before the first debate that Trump would crush the competition, and you said he wouldn't and tried to dismiss those who saw what you didn't. Now you're portraying that you've always thought Trump winning was a possibility despite your previous flat out dismissal of Trump's chances You thought Trump would lose, Trump is crushing the competition as I predicted. At minimum, I simply had a better read on the Republican race than you did. About Trump, yes. And I genuinely don't recall making that previous prediction. And I was wrong, Trump is a bigger part of this than I forsaw, but that hardly lends credence to the multiple other areas in which your understanding is lackluster. Every time you make an argument about conservatives and tax revenue, for example, I cringe. But that's a different topic I suppose. I think most people didn't expect Trump to get this far and those who did probably did so for the wrong reasons. Its all fine and now we can just sit back and watch the horror show unfold ><
I thought he would do well because he would say anything and was able to do it in a way where Republican's would believe it. Think that was pretty much exactly what's got him here.
@Intro Kudos for admitting you were wrong about Trump and I was right.
What did I say about "conservatives and tax revenue" that makes you cringe?
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On January 27 2016 07:30 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 07:22 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 07:21 Gorsameth wrote:On January 27 2016 07:17 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 06:38 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 06:18 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 06:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:40 Introvert wrote:On January 27 2016 05:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On January 27 2016 05:29 Introvert wrote:
[quote]
You still don't. For instance, in the last Iowa poll I saw, Trump's most commanding lead is among moderate and liberal republicans. That's not what you've been saying at all. Besides, casting the same incorrect analysis on Trump as you have for years on most Republicans doesn't make you right. Considering how you respond to my positions I don't think you even have a clue what I've been saying. I'm curious though what it is you think I was saying that was incorrect? I will say that in the context of this "does Trump win the nomination?" question that he very well could, I've always said it was possible. But most people seem to know why Trump is doing well. The GOP apparatus sucks, and the voters are tired of it. Have you really? On July 11 2015 13:47 Introvert wrote:
... What's more interesting is how much the lefties are obsessed with him, when most of them (should) know he isn't going to win. I stand corrected. I know I've been saying he could win for a while, guess I forgot about that. Glad you went looking though, lol. That's months ago. I just remember stuff that's all. So I knew you weren't telling the truth when you said that you "always said it was possible" I knew from before the first debate that Trump would crush the competition, and you said he wouldn't and tried to dismiss those who saw what you didn't. Now you're portraying that you've always thought Trump winning was a possibility despite your previous flat out dismissal of Trump's chances You thought Trump would lose, Trump is crushing the competition as I predicted. At minimum, I simply had a better read on the Republican race than you did. About Trump, yes. And I genuinely don't recall making that previous prediction. And I was wrong, Trump is a bigger part of this than I forsaw, but that hardly lends credence to the multiple other areas in which your understanding is lackluster. Every time you make an argument about conservatives and tax revenue, for example, I cringe. But that's a different topic I suppose. I think most people didn't expect Trump to get this far and those who did probably did so for the wrong reasons. Its all fine and now we can just sit back and watch the horror show unfold >< I didn't think the more center GOP members would go for him. Those guys are normally reliable mush candidate voters. Technically, nobody has gone for him yet...
Yes, it should be noted that Trump hasn’t won anything. And Obama wasn’t even considered viable at this point during his first run.
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Which is more likely to happen with the nominations, Trump losing or Bernie winning? (open to everyone)
I'll start, Bernie winning of course. But I would love to hear the case that Trump is more likely to lose than Bernie is to win.
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EPT
