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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 1010

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Falling
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Canada11607 Posts
April 22 2014 18:01 GMT
#20181
How does access to cheaper credit offset stagnating wages? Debt is a way for capital to lay a claim to future profits by propping up current demand

That actually sounds rather like the Roaring Twenties leading into the crash.
Moderator5000 of our finest Taliban warriors have been released! Rise up my brothers. Mashalla! al-Donald ibn-Frederick al-Masih allows it.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
April 22 2014 18:17 GMT
#20182
On the topic on middle - class income and wages in the US :

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/upshot/the-american-middle-class-is-no-longer-the-worlds-richest.html
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 22 2014 18:35 GMT
#20183
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court has upheld Michigan's ban on using race as a factor in college admissions.

The justices said in a 6-2 ruling Tuesday that Michigan voters had the right to change their state constitution to prohibit public colleges and universities from taking account of race in admissions decisions. The justices said that a lower federal court was wrong to set aside the change as discriminatory.

Justice Anthony Kennedy said voters chose to eliminate racial preferences because they deemed them unwise.

Kennedy said nothing in the Constitution or the court's prior cases gives judges the authority to undermine the election results.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Wolfstan
Profile Joined March 2011
Canada605 Posts
April 22 2014 18:52 GMT
#20184
On April 23 2014 03:17 Nyxisto wrote:
On the topic on middle - class income and wages in the US :

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/upshot/the-american-middle-class-is-no-longer-the-worlds-richest.html


Canada... Fuck yeah
EG - ROOT - Gambit Gaming
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 22 2014 18:53 GMT
#20185
Can't believe I'm going to post this as economic discussion tend to happen every other page, but this book is bestselling in America right now:

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24342 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-22 19:12:27
April 22 2014 19:05 GMT
#20186
On April 23 2014 03:01 Falling wrote:
Show nested quote +
How does access to cheaper credit offset stagnating wages? Debt is a way for capital to lay a claim to future profits by propping up current demand

That actually sounds rather like the Roaring Twenties leading into the crash.


People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

In total, American consumers owe:

$11.68 trillion in debt
An increase of 3.7% from last year
$854.2 billion in credit card debt
$8.15 trillion in mortgages
$1,115.3 billion in student loans
An increase of 13.9% from last year

Source
Deferred loans now represent 43.5% of all student loan balances.

The study also showed that the balances on these deferred loans have grown from $228 billion in 2007 to $388 billion in 2012, an increase of 70%. The average student loan debt per borrower grew 30% to $23,829 during those years.

Source

My guess is that people fed up with everything and buried under an insurmountable amount of debt just say F it. I wouldn't be surprised if millions of people just decided they aren't going to pay the loans. The government made sure that they would get their money, but only if the people make money to start with. Seeing how many of loans aren't getting paid because graduates are unemployed or underemployed, that's not much of a solution. Not to mention the credit card bubble which is almost as large, but doesn't have access to the same protection.

Without some massive employment surge, I don't really see how it will be avoided.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
April 22 2014 19:08 GMT
#20187
if you are in debt from school, the obvious solution is to double down and go to more school and get more loans.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
nunez
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Norway4003 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-22 19:37:32
April 22 2014 19:33 GMT
#20188
long read, this maliki guy seems like the sneakiest of snakes. iirc gary brecher suggested tongue in cheek that cheney was the iranians best agent.

Letter from Iraq - What We Left Behind

...

The U.S. obtained a transcript of the meeting, and knew the exact terms of the agreement. Yet it decided not to contest Iran’s interference. At a meeting of the National Security Council a month later, the White House signed off on the new regime. Officials who had spent much of the previous decade trying to secure American interests in the country were outraged. “We lost four thousand five hundred Americans only to let the Iranians dictate the outcome of the war? To result in strategic defeat?” the former American diplomat told me. “Fuck that.” At least one U.S. diplomat in Baghdad resigned in protest. And Ayad Allawi, the secular Iraqi leader who captured the most votes, was deeply embittered. “I needed American support,” he told me last summer. “But they wanted to leave, and they handed the country to the Iranians. Iraq is a failed state now, an Iranian colony.”

...
newyorker
conspired against by a confederacy of dunces.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 22 2014 20:02 GMT
#20189
Despite ongoing sanctions, Russia is about to get a big infusion of cash from the U.S. government.

NASA recently renewed a contract that allows Russia to ferry U.S. astronauts to the International Space Station.

The U.S. is, essentially, cutting Russia a $457.9 million check for its services -- six seats on a Russian Soyuz spacecraft, training and launch prep, landing and crew rescue and limited cargo delivery to and from the International Space Station. This contract also adds additional support at the Russian launch site.

NASA has announced it is cutting some contacts with Russia after the country annexed Crimea, including meetings and teleconferences.

The move came after President Obama last month signed an executive order allowing restrictions on dealings with some of Russia's largest sectors, including financial services, energy and defense. The U.S. is currently considering additional sanctions against Russia.

But some NASA initiatives just can't be stopped, underscoring the reliance the United States has on Russia for its space program.

The most important is, essentially, the taxi service to the International Space Station.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
April 22 2014 20:04 GMT
#20190
On April 23 2014 04:05 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2014 03:01 Falling wrote:
How does access to cheaper credit offset stagnating wages? Debt is a way for capital to lay a claim to future profits by propping up current demand

That actually sounds rather like the Roaring Twenties leading into the crash.


People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

Show nested quote +
In total, American consumers owe:

$11.68 trillion in debt
An increase of 3.7% from last year
$854.2 billion in credit card debt
$8.15 trillion in mortgages
$1,115.3 billion in student loans
An increase of 13.9% from last year

Source
Show nested quote +
Deferred loans now represent 43.5% of all student loan balances.

The study also showed that the balances on these deferred loans have grown from $228 billion in 2007 to $388 billion in 2012, an increase of 70%. The average student loan debt per borrower grew 30% to $23,829 during those years.

Source

My guess is that people fed up with everything and buried under an insurmountable amount of debt just say F it. I wouldn't be surprised if millions of people just decided they aren't going to pay the loans. The government made sure that they would get their money, but only if the people make money to start with. Seeing how many of loans aren't getting paid because graduates are unemployed or underemployed, that's not much of a solution. Not to mention the credit card bubble which is almost as large, but doesn't have access to the same protection.

Without some massive employment surge, I don't really see how it will be avoided.

Debt levels already went down over the past few years and debt service is really low. You're late to the party
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24342 Posts
April 22 2014 20:20 GMT
#20191
On April 23 2014 05:04 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2014 04:05 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 23 2014 03:01 Falling wrote:
How does access to cheaper credit offset stagnating wages? Debt is a way for capital to lay a claim to future profits by propping up current demand

That actually sounds rather like the Roaring Twenties leading into the crash.


People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

In total, American consumers owe:

$11.68 trillion in debt
An increase of 3.7% from last year
$854.2 billion in credit card debt
$8.15 trillion in mortgages
$1,115.3 billion in student loans
An increase of 13.9% from last year

Source
Deferred loans now represent 43.5% of all student loan balances.

The study also showed that the balances on these deferred loans have grown from $228 billion in 2007 to $388 billion in 2012, an increase of 70%. The average student loan debt per borrower grew 30% to $23,829 during those years.

Source

My guess is that people fed up with everything and buried under an insurmountable amount of debt just say F it. I wouldn't be surprised if millions of people just decided they aren't going to pay the loans. The government made sure that they would get their money, but only if the people make money to start with. Seeing how many of loans aren't getting paid because graduates are unemployed or underemployed, that's not much of a solution. Not to mention the credit card bubble which is almost as large, but doesn't have access to the same protection.

Without some massive employment surge, I don't really see how it will be avoided.

Debt levels already went down over the past few years and debt service is really low. You're late to the party


Yeah... Sure... Ok... That all you had to add? As such a stickler for sources that was a pretty silly comment.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
April 22 2014 20:51 GMT
#20192
On April 23 2014 02:03 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2014 01:15 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 00:48 FallDownMarigold wrote:
The American middle class, long the most affluent in the world, has lost that distinction.
While the wealthiest Americans are outpacing many of their global peers, a New York Times analysis shows that across the lower- and middle-income tiers, citizens of other advanced countries have received considerably larger raises over the last three decades.

After-tax middle-class incomes in Canada — substantially behind in 2000 — now appear to be higher than in the United States. The poor in much of Europe earn more than poor Americans.

The numbers, based on surveys conducted over the past 35 years, offer some of the most detailed publicly available comparisons for different income groups in different countries over time. They suggest that most American families are paying a steep price for high and rising income inequality.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/upshot/the-american-middle-class-is-no-longer-the-worlds-richest.html

While the US economy and Wall St. especially continue to grow, the middle class and poor continue to stagnate. How long will it go on and what will the end result be?

Also: Stagnant wages and income inequality aside, Americans to a large extent pay out of pocket for health care and education, which are subsidized in European counterparts. These hits obviously impact the poor & middle class the hardest.

It's not as bad as suggested. Canada jumped up in the last decade because of the resource boom - pushed up income and currency valuation. A lot of stagnation in middle class income has come from income definitions - most don't count non-cash benefits as income. I don't think that out of pocket healthcare costs have played much of a role as out of pocket costs have been falling (source).

Misleading graphs are misleading. Out-of-pocket share of GDP is roughly the same that it was in 1980 (a much more important start time if we're talking about income and inequality). Also, out-of-pocket costs don't count how much more people are paying for health insurance. While businesses are subsidizing portions of a plan (or all of it), this data doesn't touch how much they pay for a plan.

Show nested quote +
The price of health insurance faced by the consumer when deciding whether to consume a particular health service is the out-of-pocket cost, the direct and uninsured payment from a patient to a health care provider.


This shows that people are merely experiencing fewer shocks related to healthcare spending, not that their income is necessarily affected by it.

To FallDownMarigold:
Maybe the fact that Americans deal with healthcare costs more directly than their Western counterparts plays a role, but that shouldn't be referenced to as "out-of-pocket" costs.

I don't think the graphs were misleading. Here's some more data...

Who pays for health care:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
[image loading]
Source


And as a whole, the value of non-cash employee benefits have been rising faster than wages. I'll try to dig out a source for that.
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-22 21:12:48
April 22 2014 20:57 GMT
#20193
On April 23 2014 05:20 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2014 05:04 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 04:05 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 23 2014 03:01 Falling wrote:
How does access to cheaper credit offset stagnating wages? Debt is a way for capital to lay a claim to future profits by propping up current demand

That actually sounds rather like the Roaring Twenties leading into the crash.


People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

In total, American consumers owe:

$11.68 trillion in debt
An increase of 3.7% from last year
$854.2 billion in credit card debt
$8.15 trillion in mortgages
$1,115.3 billion in student loans
An increase of 13.9% from last year

Source
Deferred loans now represent 43.5% of all student loan balances.

The study also showed that the balances on these deferred loans have grown from $228 billion in 2007 to $388 billion in 2012, an increase of 70%. The average student loan debt per borrower grew 30% to $23,829 during those years.

Source

My guess is that people fed up with everything and buried under an insurmountable amount of debt just say F it. I wouldn't be surprised if millions of people just decided they aren't going to pay the loans. The government made sure that they would get their money, but only if the people make money to start with. Seeing how many of loans aren't getting paid because graduates are unemployed or underemployed, that's not much of a solution. Not to mention the credit card bubble which is almost as large, but doesn't have access to the same protection.

Without some massive employment surge, I don't really see how it will be avoided.

Debt levels already went down over the past few years and debt service is really low. You're late to the party


Yeah... Sure... Ok... That all you had to add? As such a stickler for sources that was a pretty silly comment.

Here's some sources:

Debt service ratio -
[image loading]
Source (Fed table here)

Aggregate household debt (nominal) -
[image loading]
Source

Edit: *ahem*
People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

Maybe you were talking about Canada?

Edit 2:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]source
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24342 Posts
April 22 2014 21:13 GMT
#20194
On April 23 2014 05:57 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2014 05:20 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 23 2014 05:04 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 04:05 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 23 2014 03:01 Falling wrote:
How does access to cheaper credit offset stagnating wages? Debt is a way for capital to lay a claim to future profits by propping up current demand

That actually sounds rather like the Roaring Twenties leading into the crash.


People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

In total, American consumers owe:

$11.68 trillion in debt
An increase of 3.7% from last year
$854.2 billion in credit card debt
$8.15 trillion in mortgages
$1,115.3 billion in student loans
An increase of 13.9% from last year

Source
Deferred loans now represent 43.5% of all student loan balances.

The study also showed that the balances on these deferred loans have grown from $228 billion in 2007 to $388 billion in 2012, an increase of 70%. The average student loan debt per borrower grew 30% to $23,829 during those years.

Source

My guess is that people fed up with everything and buried under an insurmountable amount of debt just say F it. I wouldn't be surprised if millions of people just decided they aren't going to pay the loans. The government made sure that they would get their money, but only if the people make money to start with. Seeing how many of loans aren't getting paid because graduates are unemployed or underemployed, that's not much of a solution. Not to mention the credit card bubble which is almost as large, but doesn't have access to the same protection.

Without some massive employment surge, I don't really see how it will be avoided.

Debt levels already went down over the past few years and debt service is really low. You're late to the party


Yeah... Sure... Ok... That all you had to add? As such a stickler for sources that was a pretty silly comment.

Here's some sources:

Debt service ratio -
[image loading]
Source (Fed table here)

Aggregate household debt (nominal) -
[image loading]
Source

Edit: *ahem*
Show nested quote +
People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

Maybe you were talking about Canada?



I guess you just see something many don't see in those numbers. But yeah if you think that means there's nothing to worry about I think it's pretty obvious when you look further into those reports but I guess if you missed it when you sourced it you won't pick up on it by me highlighting it.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
April 22 2014 21:15 GMT
#20195
On April 23 2014 06:13 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2014 05:57 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 05:20 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 23 2014 05:04 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 04:05 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 23 2014 03:01 Falling wrote:
How does access to cheaper credit offset stagnating wages? Debt is a way for capital to lay a claim to future profits by propping up current demand

That actually sounds rather like the Roaring Twenties leading into the crash.


People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

In total, American consumers owe:

$11.68 trillion in debt
An increase of 3.7% from last year
$854.2 billion in credit card debt
$8.15 trillion in mortgages
$1,115.3 billion in student loans
An increase of 13.9% from last year

Source
Deferred loans now represent 43.5% of all student loan balances.

The study also showed that the balances on these deferred loans have grown from $228 billion in 2007 to $388 billion in 2012, an increase of 70%. The average student loan debt per borrower grew 30% to $23,829 during those years.

Source

My guess is that people fed up with everything and buried under an insurmountable amount of debt just say F it. I wouldn't be surprised if millions of people just decided they aren't going to pay the loans. The government made sure that they would get their money, but only if the people make money to start with. Seeing how many of loans aren't getting paid because graduates are unemployed or underemployed, that's not much of a solution. Not to mention the credit card bubble which is almost as large, but doesn't have access to the same protection.

Without some massive employment surge, I don't really see how it will be avoided.

Debt levels already went down over the past few years and debt service is really low. You're late to the party


Yeah... Sure... Ok... That all you had to add? As such a stickler for sources that was a pretty silly comment.

Here's some sources:

Debt service ratio -
[image loading]
Source (Fed table here)

Aggregate household debt (nominal) -
[image loading]
Source

Edit: *ahem*
People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

Maybe you were talking about Canada?



I guess you just see something many don't see in those numbers. But yeah if you think that means there's nothing to worry about I think it's pretty obvious when you look further into those reports but I guess if you missed it when you sourced it you won't pick up on it by me highlighting it.

What am I missing the cookie debt monster?

What in the reports did I miss? Falling delinquency rates? No, no - I saw that too.
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-23 13:26:00
April 22 2014 21:25 GMT
#20196
On April 23 2014 05:51 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2014 02:03 aksfjh wrote:
On April 23 2014 01:15 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 00:48 FallDownMarigold wrote:
The American middle class, long the most affluent in the world, has lost that distinction.
While the wealthiest Americans are outpacing many of their global peers, a New York Times analysis shows that across the lower- and middle-income tiers, citizens of other advanced countries have received considerably larger raises over the last three decades.

After-tax middle-class incomes in Canada — substantially behind in 2000 — now appear to be higher than in the United States. The poor in much of Europe earn more than poor Americans.

The numbers, based on surveys conducted over the past 35 years, offer some of the most detailed publicly available comparisons for different income groups in different countries over time. They suggest that most American families are paying a steep price for high and rising income inequality.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/upshot/the-american-middle-class-is-no-longer-the-worlds-richest.html

While the US economy and Wall St. especially continue to grow, the middle class and poor continue to stagnate. How long will it go on and what will the end result be?

Also: Stagnant wages and income inequality aside, Americans to a large extent pay out of pocket for health care and education, which are subsidized in European counterparts. These hits obviously impact the poor & middle class the hardest.

It's not as bad as suggested. Canada jumped up in the last decade because of the resource boom - pushed up income and currency valuation. A lot of stagnation in middle class income has come from income definitions - most don't count non-cash benefits as income. I don't think that out of pocket healthcare costs have played much of a role as out of pocket costs have been falling (source).

Misleading graphs are misleading. Out-of-pocket share of GDP is roughly the same that it was in 1980 (a much more important start time if we're talking about income and inequality). Also, out-of-pocket costs don't count how much more people are paying for health insurance. While businesses are subsidizing portions of a plan (or all of it), this data doesn't touch how much they pay for a plan.

The price of health insurance faced by the consumer when deciding whether to consume a particular health service is the out-of-pocket cost, the direct and uninsured payment from a patient to a health care provider.


This shows that people are merely experiencing fewer shocks related to healthcare spending, not that their income is necessarily affected by it.

To FallDownMarigold:
Maybe the fact that Americans deal with healthcare costs more directly than their Western counterparts plays a role, but that shouldn't be referenced to as "out-of-pocket" costs.

I don't think the graphs were misleading. Here's some more data...

Who pays for health care:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
[image loading]
Source


And as a whole, the value of non-cash employee benefits have been rising faster than wages. I'll try to dig out a source for that.

Read your own graphs, employers are paying a smaller share of healthcare than they used to.

Year Employee Employer
1999 26.67% 73.36%
2011 27.39% 72.61%

Certainly, it's great they haven't had to start paying the full share of it or something ridiculous, but these costs are rising faster than wages (~90% in 12 years inflation adjusted) and the general feeling is that employers seem more than capable of absorbing even more of the cost than they are.

If we look at after-tax profits from FRED:
[image loading]

We get an inflation adjusted growth of roughly 250%. Certainly, total profits probably aren't the BEST way to look at this, but it does shed some light if one group is getting a better deal than the other.

Gripe:
+ Show Spoiler +

Debt service ratio -
[image loading]
Source (Fed table here)

Not really your fault, but talk about a shitty graph. Let's just mislead everybody and overstate a change of ~25% less of disposable income going to debt payments.


Edit: Fixed math error
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
April 22 2014 21:35 GMT
#20197
On April 22 2014 16:05 IgnE wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2014 15:50 Danglars wrote:


we shouldn't be scared of the government it should be scared of us and that should be something you believe no matter what else you believe politically. and that includes them being scared we'll overwhelm and overthrow them if they try too much shit.
And to think that in one point in time, this was not a radical idea in America.



Was this before or after Shay's Rebellion? Perhaps after the Whiskey Rebellion but before the Civil War? Maybe some poor whites organizing out west and several scattered slave revolts would qualify as "scary" to Washington, Madison, and the rest?
I know you can dissemble with every little revolt and try to make a point. What I'm referring is the larger case. A government afraid of its citizens is a Democracy. Citizens afraid of government is tyranny. That vibrant debate between federalists and anti-federalists knowing that the greatest danger from instituting a central federal government was that it would become a tyranny. I believe, like Madison, that there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpation.

On April 22 2014 16:47 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2014 15:50 Danglars wrote:
On April 22 2014 13:33 DeepElemBlues wrote:
Bundy is a Ron Paultard type. I don't have anything more to say about that the only people I have more contempt for than Ron Paultards are Nazis and commies and not all or even most of the commies.
The only commies below Paultards are the well-meaning types or do-gooders. The sweet and caring useful idiots and fellow travelers, to use some slightly outdated language. I confess, it's sometimes easy to sympathize with Paultards. Have a look at the direction the country's been going last 20 years and what both parties do in Washington and it's rather easy to see how some can just snap. Of course, still impossible to stand lengthy discussions with them

we shouldn't be scared of the government it should be scared of us and that should be something you believe no matter what else you believe politically. and that includes them being scared we'll overwhelm and overthrow them if they try too much shit.
And to think that in one point in time, this was not a radical idea in America.

honestly with that "satire" you posted a while back and stuff like this you are an exemplar of what makes people who aren't obsessed with politics think we're all loony. at TL it is one step removed from the worst but the only difference is instead of blatantly calling each other dumb fucks who deserve to be treated like shit we just imply it by making generalizations and mockeries about how everyone else in the world who agrees with the person we're disagreeing with are dumb fucks who deserve to get treated like shit.
Oh, and both sides accuse the other of destroying the country and wishing misery on the disadvantaged. It's all settled, all the facts are on each side and the other side is just too dumb to realize the debate is over.

I wonder, do you know that communism, at its core, considered that the state is property of the bourgeoisy, and that a revolution could not work without its destruction ?

Just saying, you're closer to communism than you think... lol.
It purports to be a freeing experience from classes and the rest, but its ends are antagonistic to the freedom of the people. History began before Marx. I prefer the civil society and the social contract, the latter of which is now mostly in a rent state. Some bearded upstart might lay claim to the same aims, but must survive examination.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6315 Posts
April 22 2014 21:38 GMT
#20198
On April 23 2014 05:57 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2014 05:20 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 23 2014 05:04 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 04:05 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 23 2014 03:01 Falling wrote:
How does access to cheaper credit offset stagnating wages? Debt is a way for capital to lay a claim to future profits by propping up current demand

That actually sounds rather like the Roaring Twenties leading into the crash.


People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

In total, American consumers owe:

$11.68 trillion in debt
An increase of 3.7% from last year
$854.2 billion in credit card debt
$8.15 trillion in mortgages
$1,115.3 billion in student loans
An increase of 13.9% from last year

Source
Deferred loans now represent 43.5% of all student loan balances.

The study also showed that the balances on these deferred loans have grown from $228 billion in 2007 to $388 billion in 2012, an increase of 70%. The average student loan debt per borrower grew 30% to $23,829 during those years.

Source

My guess is that people fed up with everything and buried under an insurmountable amount of debt just say F it. I wouldn't be surprised if millions of people just decided they aren't going to pay the loans. The government made sure that they would get their money, but only if the people make money to start with. Seeing how many of loans aren't getting paid because graduates are unemployed or underemployed, that's not much of a solution. Not to mention the credit card bubble which is almost as large, but doesn't have access to the same protection.

Without some massive employment surge, I don't really see how it will be avoided.

Debt levels already went down over the past few years and debt service is really low. You're late to the party


Yeah... Sure... Ok... That all you had to add? As such a stickler for sources that was a pretty silly comment.

Here's some sources:

Debt service ratio -
[image loading]
Source (Fed table here)

Aggregate household debt (nominal) -
[image loading]
Source

Edit: *ahem*
Show nested quote +
People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

Maybe you were talking about Canada?

Edit 2:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]source

The household debt service ratio is low because of the incredibly low interest rates as well. There might be problems when interest rates start rising again, although on the other hand they'll start rising only when there's less unemployment.
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
April 22 2014 21:44 GMT
#20199
On April 23 2014 06:38 RvB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2014 05:57 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 05:20 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 23 2014 05:04 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 04:05 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 23 2014 03:01 Falling wrote:
How does access to cheaper credit offset stagnating wages? Debt is a way for capital to lay a claim to future profits by propping up current demand

That actually sounds rather like the Roaring Twenties leading into the crash.


People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

In total, American consumers owe:

$11.68 trillion in debt
An increase of 3.7% from last year
$854.2 billion in credit card debt
$8.15 trillion in mortgages
$1,115.3 billion in student loans
An increase of 13.9% from last year

Source
Deferred loans now represent 43.5% of all student loan balances.

The study also showed that the balances on these deferred loans have grown from $228 billion in 2007 to $388 billion in 2012, an increase of 70%. The average student loan debt per borrower grew 30% to $23,829 during those years.

Source

My guess is that people fed up with everything and buried under an insurmountable amount of debt just say F it. I wouldn't be surprised if millions of people just decided they aren't going to pay the loans. The government made sure that they would get their money, but only if the people make money to start with. Seeing how many of loans aren't getting paid because graduates are unemployed or underemployed, that's not much of a solution. Not to mention the credit card bubble which is almost as large, but doesn't have access to the same protection.

Without some massive employment surge, I don't really see how it will be avoided.

Debt levels already went down over the past few years and debt service is really low. You're late to the party


Yeah... Sure... Ok... That all you had to add? As such a stickler for sources that was a pretty silly comment.

Here's some sources:

Debt service ratio -
[image loading]
Source (Fed table here)

Aggregate household debt (nominal) -
[image loading]
Source

Edit: *ahem*
People have been talking about it for a while. If something dramatic isn't done soon, the crash seems inevitable.

Maybe you were talking about Canada?

Edit 2:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]source

The household debt service ratio is low because of the incredibly low interest rates as well. There might be problems when interest rates start rising again, although on the other hand they'll start rising only when there's less unemployment.

Fed interest rates are low, yes, but a lot of the borrowing rates are also being kept low by a huge glut of savings in the global system seeking gains. US debt is "safe," no matter if it's the government, businesses, or people. Simply, borrowing costs will probably stay low even if the fed brings up rates. However, nominal rates don't mean much when there is low/no inflation (or even worse, deflation).
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
April 22 2014 21:46 GMT
#20200
On April 23 2014 06:25 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2014 05:51 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 02:03 aksfjh wrote:
On April 23 2014 01:15 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On April 23 2014 00:48 FallDownMarigold wrote:
The American middle class, long the most affluent in the world, has lost that distinction.
While the wealthiest Americans are outpacing many of their global peers, a New York Times analysis shows that across the lower- and middle-income tiers, citizens of other advanced countries have received considerably larger raises over the last three decades.

After-tax middle-class incomes in Canada — substantially behind in 2000 — now appear to be higher than in the United States. The poor in much of Europe earn more than poor Americans.

The numbers, based on surveys conducted over the past 35 years, offer some of the most detailed publicly available comparisons for different income groups in different countries over time. They suggest that most American families are paying a steep price for high and rising income inequality.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/upshot/the-american-middle-class-is-no-longer-the-worlds-richest.html

While the US economy and Wall St. especially continue to grow, the middle class and poor continue to stagnate. How long will it go on and what will the end result be?

Also: Stagnant wages and income inequality aside, Americans to a large extent pay out of pocket for health care and education, which are subsidized in European counterparts. These hits obviously impact the poor & middle class the hardest.

It's not as bad as suggested. Canada jumped up in the last decade because of the resource boom - pushed up income and currency valuation. A lot of stagnation in middle class income has come from income definitions - most don't count non-cash benefits as income. I don't think that out of pocket healthcare costs have played much of a role as out of pocket costs have been falling (source).

Misleading graphs are misleading. Out-of-pocket share of GDP is roughly the same that it was in 1980 (a much more important start time if we're talking about income and inequality). Also, out-of-pocket costs don't count how much more people are paying for health insurance. While businesses are subsidizing portions of a plan (or all of it), this data doesn't touch how much they pay for a plan.

The price of health insurance faced by the consumer when deciding whether to consume a particular health service is the out-of-pocket cost, the direct and uninsured payment from a patient to a health care provider.


This shows that people are merely experiencing fewer shocks related to healthcare spending, not that their income is necessarily affected by it.

To FallDownMarigold:
Maybe the fact that Americans deal with healthcare costs more directly than their Western counterparts plays a role, but that shouldn't be referenced to as "out-of-pocket" costs.

I don't think the graphs were misleading. Here's some more data...

Who pays for health care:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
[image loading]
Source


And as a whole, the value of non-cash employee benefits have been rising faster than wages. I'll try to dig out a source for that.

Read your own graphs, employers are paying a smaller share of healthcare than they used to.

Year Employee Employer
1999 26.67% 73.36%
2011 27.39% 72.61%

Certainly, it's great they haven't had to start paying the full share of it or something ridiculous, but these costs are rising faster than wages (~90% in 12 years inflation adjusted) and the general feeling is that employers seem more than capable of absorbing even more of the cost than they are.

If we look at after-tax profits from FRED:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


We get an inflation adjusted growth of roughly 2500%. Certainly, total profits probably aren't the BEST way to look at this, but it does shed some light if one group is getting a better deal than the other.

Employers increase insurance payments by ~$6K, employees by ~$2.5K. That's a net increase to workers even accounting for their greater premium outlays.

I don't see what profits have to do with my point about non-cash benefits. Regardless, your graph doesn't say it's in real terms, and it shows profits up something like 2.5X, not 25X. Additionally profits are cyclical, affected by both international and domestic markets and interest rates. Profits at a high today doesn't mean that they'll be higher tomorrow!

Gripe:
+ Show Spoiler +

Debt service ratio -
[image loading]
Source (Fed table here)

Not really your fault, but talk about a shitty graph. Let's just mislead everybody and overstate a change of ~25% less of disposable income going to debt payments.

Not sure what your problem with the graph is. Debt service ratio is around a 30 year low - that's very substantial.
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