Maybe I'm dense, but I don't see the relationship between total number of Terran in a given round and the likelihood that Boxer, or anyone, will encounter one in that round.
The chance of Boxer hitting a Terran in round 2 would not be based on the number of Terrans in the round, but simply by the adjacent matchup to determine his opponent, which happened to be TvZ.
So based on the brackets presented, he was 50% likely to hit Terran or Zerg, disregarding any skill gap between the involved players or map issues. Had the match been ZvP instead, it would have been a 0% chance of a Terran opponent.
And would not the other 2 matches on that corner of the bracket lead to another 50% chance of Terran for round 3?
The other two matches are TvZ and TvZ, which means the possible outcomes, ignoring player skill levels and maps, would be TvT, TvZ, TvZ, and ZvZ, which means the likelihood of a Terran advancing again from that group, even though it's full of Zerg, is still 50%, right?
If someone could tell me more about that probability, I'd like to know if that's right or wrong please.
Boxer's corner of his group is the only one with all 4 TvX to give this kind of chance to any player in it this season. Now, the other side of his bracket group is a different story, containing players like Idra, Check, and MVP.
But really, no one can expect Boxer to ride a wave of lucky TvT all the way to the finals, he would just need to advance far enough and against the most entertaining and favorable opponents to draw in the crowds for as long as could be foreseen.
If this is just chance or through predictably planned brackets, no one can say for sure, but it's strange to me.
On December 01 2010 09:16 CanucksJC wrote: Even if this did happen, can you really blame Gom for doing it? If I ran the tournament, I 'd do everything in my power to have Boxer vs NaDa finals
What if you were in the tournament and this happened
Ro64 - CanucksJC vs NesTea Ro32 - CanucksJC vs FruitDealer Ro16 - CanucksJC vs HongUn Ro8 - CanucksJC vs ITR Ro4 - CanucksJC vs Marine King
while
Ro64 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro32 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro16 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro8 - BoxeR vs random unknown etc
Meh, I don't really care. I'd much rather everything just be completely random, fa cup style. That is if we can't have Swiss-style tourneys which I guess would never happen
On December 01 2010 09:16 CanucksJC wrote: Even if this did happen, can you really blame Gom for doing it? If I ran the tournament, I 'd do everything in my power to have Boxer vs NaDa finals
What if you were in the tournament and this happened
Ro64 - CanucksJC vs NesTea Ro32 - CanucksJC vs FruitDealer Ro16 - CanucksJC vs HongUn Ro8 - CanucksJC vs ITR Ro4 - CanucksJC vs Marine King
while
Ro64 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro32 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro16 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro8 - BoxeR vs random unknown etc
Would you not be a little upset?
Except they didn't do that, because Boxer met Nada in the RO8 in GSL2. While one might be upset if they did do that, they didn't do that when it was possible, so...
On December 01 2010 09:16 CanucksJC wrote: Even if this did happen, can you really blame Gom for doing it? If I ran the tournament, I 'd do everything in my power to have Boxer vs NaDa finals
What if you were in the tournament and this happened
Ro64 - CanucksJC vs NesTea Ro32 - CanucksJC vs FruitDealer Ro16 - CanucksJC vs HongUn Ro8 - CanucksJC vs ITR Ro4 - CanucksJC vs Marine King
while
Ro64 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro32 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro16 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro8 - BoxeR vs random unknown etc
Would you not be a little upset?
Umm... you realize that CanucksJC would be a random unknown so it would be the same lol
On December 01 2010 09:16 CanucksJC wrote: Even if this did happen, can you really blame Gom for doing it? If I ran the tournament, I 'd do everything in my power to have Boxer vs NaDa finals
What if you were in the tournament and this happened
Ro64 - CanucksJC vs NesTea Ro32 - CanucksJC vs FruitDealer Ro16 - CanucksJC vs HongUn Ro8 - CanucksJC vs ITR Ro4 - CanucksJC vs Marine King
while
Ro64 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro32 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro16 - BoxeR vs random unknown Ro8 - BoxeR vs random unknown etc
Would you not be a little upset?
No, I'd probably understand that tournaments tend to have seeds.
I can't wait for the regular GSL schedule to start in Jan. Finally there will be for reals seeding, no more of this (most likely not) random qualification groups and tournament seeding.
On December 01 2010 09:41 Soulish wrote: Nada didn't even qualify, so I think your theory is discounted right there.
Not that I necessarily agree with the OP, but I don't think Nada not qualifying nullifies his point.
You really don't know what would have happened with Nada's match-ups if he had qualified, and he lost to a random, no-name guy, right? He *should* have won his qualifiers.
Sometimes you lose to people worse than you, or to unpredictable builds. Like how Tester keeps losing early on in the GSL.
On November 30 2010 13:52 Klamity wrote: The current ratio in TvT is 50% T wins. I think it's an extremely fair matchup.
actually its 100% T wins, you fail at basic math
No you do. Say you have 3 TvT's, theres 6 T's playing, 3 win, so terrans win 3 games but terrans also lose 3 games, hence terran having a 50% winning percentage.
actually it would definitely be 100%, the win ratio refers to what % of the matches terran wins, so the equation is: games won over games played, which has nothing to do with games lost. the 50% statistic eludes to two seperate players each keeping their own tally, when this matter is looked at exclusively through race statistics, you find that terran does indeed win 100% of the time, but T also conversely loses 100% of the time, i would call it a pardox, but the fact that a typical game consists of two seperate players can easily explain this circumstance.
On November 30 2010 13:52 Klamity wrote: The current ratio in TvT is 50% T wins. I think it's an extremely fair matchup.
actually its 100% T wins, you fail at basic math
No you do. Say you have 3 TvT's, theres 6 T's playing, 3 win, so terrans win 3 games but terrans also lose 3 games, hence terran having a 50% winning percentage.
actually it would definitely be 100%, the win ratio refers to what % of the matches terran wins, so the equation is: games won over games played, which has nothing to do with games lost. the 50% statistic eludes to two seperate players each keeping their own tally, when this matter is looked at exclusively through race statistics, you find that terran does indeed win 100% of the time, but T also conversely loses 100% of the time, i would call it a pardox, but the fact that a typical game consists of two seperate players can easily explain this circumstance.
Agreed. Whenever everyone plays as Terran, every game is won as Terran. It would be 50% if half were won by Terran and half were won by Zerg or Protoss. Terran win 100% of games that are TvT. This is what we're looking at with winning percentage. You don't average winning percentage and losing percentage to get the winning percentage >.>
The OP might have a point, but he doesn't make it very well.
As far as I understand in the GSL - like in every major tournament in any sport or e-sport - the organisers don't just set up the match ups for a round as the round starts, they set up ALL match ups as the tournament opens and from then on it just depends who wins. I imagine this is precisely because of possible accusations of favoritism.
SO
If the OP really has a point wouldn't it be better to make it by looking at Boxers group and the players in it, then the players he could possibly go against after that and so on? It seems to me that linking stats like 80% TvT means absolutely nothing because if a few of terrans Boxer played against had to beat strong P or Z opposition before they played Boxer it would mean that if those terrans had lost Boxer would have had to play against the strong P or Z instead.
Or do I have this totally wrong and the GSL works by some secret comittee decision of who should play who before every round starts?
On November 30 2010 13:38 PartyBiscuit wrote: First of all, I think it's pretty obvious that the Ro64 matches are planned and indeed not random (no foreigners killing one another, no legends killing one another, and Boxer gets the TvT).
However, using the "facts" of GSL2 where Boxer gets the Ro16 and Ro8 TvT matches aren't actual reasons of set-up. Again, they gave Boxer and Nada an easyish bracket (only real name was Loner) so they had a decent chance of meeting up in Ro8 - other than that it ENTIRELY depends on how the other contestants play...Boxer could have been rolled by Core, nobody knows - since Core was NOT expected to beat Bless (which would have given Boxer a TvT in Ro32), Loner could have and indeed ALMOST lost to Terrious in Round of 32, which would give Boxer a ZvT.
The only "fact" you have is that the Ro64 are planned - and in fact, it benefits not just Boxer but the foreigners and all the legends as well.
Trust me you wouldn't want to watch BabyWerra make it into the round of 32 anyway.
This seems to be a rather widely accepted opinion in Korea as well.
On December 01 2010 10:17 Sanguinarius wrote: After the RO64 - alot of matches are up in the air. Sure, they can give him a TVT for ro64, but after that its pretty random.
Why does everyone say after the round of 64 it is random? The brackets are established at the round of 64 and players advance to face players parallel with them. While no one can 100% predict the winner in any match, if the brackets are established to increase the chances of a favorable race or encounter, it can be done at this stage and continue into later rounds.
It's not as if Boxer wins his first TvT and then randomly draws an opponent from the other 31 players in the tournament. He had a 50% chance of facing Polt or Joon and no one else. That's half Terran or half Zerg. A coin toss, but if Polt was the favored player in that series with a higher chance of winning, then it would be more than likely of Boxer facing Polt in round 2 instead of a Zerg.
In both season 2 and season 3, the first match ups parallel with Boxer in his group have been TvX with him always getting one of the only TvT, his safest matchup, in the entire tournament opening round. So in both the Ro32 and Ro16 there was a 50% chance of meeting a Terran based on the players immediately around him in his group. And while this did not happen in season 2, since CoreJJang, a Protoss, upset the WC3 favorite Lyn, a Terran, in the first round, Boxer instead faced the Protoss.
It should be said that this does not confirm or deny anything, as it could be said that any player in Boxer's corner of the group have the exact same chances based on race and that 50% is indeed a coin flip chance either way for better or worse.
But the fact that all players face similar odds does not ignore the fact that those odds consistently give Boxer a 50% chance of his best matchup for the first 3 rounds of the tournament, ignoring any player skill gaps between adjacent winners Polt, Jinro, and Moon and their opponents this season.
But regardless of any of this, it is absolutely not up in the air as the tournament advances, as the brackets can only advance forward on their tracks. You can't predict who will win, and surprising upsets do happen, but it is possible to guide things along gently under favorable circumstances if brackets are manually arranged at the start, which is the real issue.
EPT
