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Efficient drone scouting and probability theory - Page 3

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Floophead_III
Profile Joined September 2009
United States1832 Posts
April 19 2010 19:03 GMT
#41
I think a better problem to analyze would be one where your scout (of any race) sees their scout in a particular position, or their scout enters your base when your scout has only seen 1 base. That kind of scenario probably still does not truly fit a monty hall model, but I'm sure there is math that can prove something of value.

I'm now going to spend the rest of the day analyzing this with my friend who's a math major because we're total geeks. -_-
Half man, half bear, half pig.
nineninja9
Profile Joined March 2010
United States194 Posts
April 19 2010 19:04 GMT
#42
There's also the issue of defining what a "win" in this case is. Is it to find out where your opponent is, or is it to actual scout his opening and tech? If it is simply to find out where your opponent is, switching does not in fact help in any way. If it is to physically scout his opening, then this problem is slightly more relevant, but even then, it's still wrong as has been said many times before.
Romanian from
Profile Joined September 2008
Romania89 Posts
April 19 2010 19:05 GMT
#43
no you should not switch. For example if you switched to main where your overlord already scouts you scouted double = waste scout.
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
April 19 2010 19:05 GMT
#44
On April 20 2010 03:57 ComradeDover wrote:
To address your title and not the OP, the most efficient drone/overlord scouting is to send the overlord to the "close" position (Verticals on Kulas Ravine, northwest/southest on LT) and a drone to either of the "far" positions, and if both are wrong sending whichever is closer (depending on the map) to the last remaining spot.

I'm not so sure this is so simple. The answer most likely depends on several factors, including drone travel time to each base; overlord travel time to each base; the timing at which you want to know something; the timing at which you're willing to send a drone; how much risk you're willing to take; and the timing at which you want to scout the opponent's natural, if any.

I can see situations where, with the closest position by ground also being the closest position by air, you want to send your drone to the closest position and your overlord to the second-closest. This lets you scout both positions slightly earlier than doing it the other way, though it may mean that you scout the single closest position later or that you scout the last position later.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
RoboFerret
Profile Joined March 2010
United States70 Posts
April 19 2010 19:06 GMT
#45
As people pointed out, while not correct in this case, this was still a cool little thing. To be honest this topic ended up teaching more more than my 3 classes did today.
DarQraven
Profile Joined January 2010
Netherlands553 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-04-19 19:12:49
April 19 2010 19:12 GMT
#46
You know what, I think I'll make a post about how the OP does not describe the Monthy hall problem because the outcome of the..ohh wait. Nevermind.

*You'd think people would notice the 20+ identical posts above them before posting a mathematical thesis*
Floophead_III
Profile Joined September 2009
United States1832 Posts
April 19 2010 19:13 GMT
#47
If someone can verify this that'd be great, but I believe that I have proved something many people probably would not expect:

In any XvZ matchup, zerg sends out a scouting overlord. Given that you know he's one of 3 bases on a 4 player map, there are 6 possible scouting vectors. Only 2 of them end up with a lord at your base. Therefore, if you do not see a lord, there are 4 possibilities. 2 of those are that your opponent is across from you and scouted to the side. Therefore, 2/4 times or 50%, your opponent is cross spots.

You may now applaud.
Half man, half bear, half pig.
Chill
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
Calgary26004 Posts
April 19 2010 19:13 GMT
#48
Nope.
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