[ASL14] Ro16 Group D - Page 4

On September 08 2022 00:24 angry_maia wrote:
Not to beat a dead horsez but this map must be close to 90% z favored in zvp right? Assuming you go Stargate, you die to hydra, and if you don't, you die to muta.

On September 08 2022 04:13 angry_maia wrote:
Suppose you KNOW that the hydra rush is coming, but you don't know which temple they will break. Are you supposed to just cannon up by your main nexus? Does that hold?

On September 08 2022 05:46 Rainalcar wrote:


Not a chance without reavers, and even then it is questionable. P cannot fight hydras on open ground early game.

On September 08 2022 01:44 TMNT wrote:

It's not that bad. Latest win rate from spongames although sample size is small:
TvZ (67 games): 46.3%
ZvP (38 games): 57.9%
PvT (37 games): 37.8%

So it's obviously Z favored in both matchups. But the rate doesn't look worse for P compared to standard maps like Vermeer or Allegro. I guess when Zerg opts for a normal game then it's somewhat balanced or even P favored a little bit with reaver play. What I'd like to see is the ZvP win rate when Zerg goes hydra or muta rush.

On September 08 2022 04:13 angry_maia wrote:
Suppose you KNOW that the hydra rush is coming, but you don't know which temple they will break. Are you supposed to just cannon up by your main nexus? Does that hold?

On September 08 2022 06:30 angry_maia wrote:
imo percentages don't tell the whole story though. As an example, a map in which a coin gets flipped and the loser instantly gets their based destroyed would be completely balanced, at 50%, but it would also be a terrible map since someone like me (F rated player) would have a 50/50 against Flash.

So while my 90% number is wrong, it seems like any reasonably skilled Zerg can GUARANTEE at least a 50% win-rate against ANY protoss with the following strategy : with 1/2 chance go hydra bust, 1/2 chance go mutas. Since there is no build of protoss that is safe against both of these, you get to win half the time.

On September 08 2022 16:22 namkraft wrote:
To me it looks like Mini didn't auto-lose that game.
- He make a very fast zealot, a dragon, then another zealot. U don't need to make any ground units if you are rushing to sairs (or reavers)
- He built a nexus, then cancelled it
- He built a robo, then cancelled it, then make another robo
- He didn't protect his cannons against zergling surround

Sairs + Reavers would be winnable against Hero's build. Mini just needed to not expand (meaning also, no early zealot)

Another variation that we haven't seen much these days, is gas before gateway. It has some potential for experimentation in the future on this map, I think.

And btw the disadvantage of scouting is for Zerg as well. Zerg only gets 1/3 chances of scouting correctly on this map. And you further even up the score by not building anything near your choke. That choke is only one of the 3 ways into ur base anyways. Might as well just cannon up your main if worst comes to worst. Not to mention if the overlord goes to your base first and sees nothing, it MIGHT turn around. Which really helps ))

Edit: another really good strategy may be 14 nexus into gateway then canons (or canons first then gateway). Not sure of the exact timings against 2 hatch hydras. Maybe somebody can enlighten me.

On September 08 2022 19:56 TMNT wrote:
Making zealot and dragoon from 1 gate doesn't slow down your timing for corsair. It's just extra money you have when waiting for core and stargate to complete. And he also needs units to clean up the chrysalis.

Mini accidentally canceling the robo was tragic, but it has no impact on the outcome of the game. Reaver wouldn't be out in time anyway. Same for not protecting his cannons because once the hydras are in the main it's already over.

Yeah not expanding and go straight for sair reaver would hold the bust, but you're speaking from the observer pov where you know Zerg's going 2H hydra so you're doing the direct counter to it. Same for gas before gateway.

Re scouting, how is it a disadvantage for Zerg as well when you have a 1/3 chance and your opponent have zero chance? And the second overlord would arrive at the other corner before corsair comes out anyway, I believe.

Also not building the pylon near your choke is a dumb choice because (a) you need to watch out for the hp of the temples, (b) how are you going to stop lings running in your main, and (c) if Zerg rushes for lurker you're dead.

Just think about it in simple terms: on a normal map P can barely hold a hydra bust at ONE entrace, IF scouted in time. On this map it cant be scouted and you have THREE entraces to defend. You build cannons at 1 entrance, the Zerg just picks another one and all those cannons become deadweight. Then if you build cannons only at your main you're asking for a contain and will lose the game anyway, just at a later time.

On September 08 2022 22:38 namkraft wrote:
- Making a zealot doesn't slow the timing of the corsairs, that's if you go for normal gas timing. If you go for a bit faster gas timing (something I think may be experimented upon), it may carry some impact. But no, I have no first-hand experience on that, maybe you will prove me wrong. You have a better understanding of the game. On the other hand, making a dragoon does slow down your corsair.

- Scouting: I didn't say it's disadvantage to the zerg player. I mean it's not that big of an advantage. 1/3 > 0, true, but like I said if you didn't build your first pylon near the middle entrance, you make that small advantage go even smaller.

- Building a pylon at the front: I don't mean never build anything there EVER, I just mean don't build it that early.
* U don't need a pylon to watch the hp of the temple. Just send a probe there once in a while (not permanently cuz that triggers the overlord scouts). Plus, if the guy goes for lurker rush, you have 3 entrances to protect (like u said). Furthermore, only 1 base-lurker rush would pose the threat of which u speak. Again I don't know the exact timings but if the zerg doesn't know where you are located (without the forward pylon), he may be destroying the wrong artifacts and you will have more time).

- Robo: it doesn't seem to hold any significance because Mini didn't protect his canons. If his first 2 cannons came alive without issues, he would hold against the initial hydra push, then he will have a chance to bounce back with an earlier reaver. Plus without the cancellation he would have money to build a 4th cannon.

- Making cannons near your main. Yeah it's not a pretty sight, but the chance of coming back is not 0. It depends on how much the zerg has invested to put you in that situation in the first place. Under some circumstances it may be doable with cannons + reavers. And I'm not talking only about 1-base cannoning. There is a scenario whereby you go for 14 nexus then cannon up. Again, not a pretty sight with hydras separating your 2 bases, but I can't say that it's an auto-lose.

All in all, the actual stats tell us that it's possible for protoss to win on this map. And we have so few televised matches that I don't want to come to your conclusion. Maybe your wonderful insights will help you see the picture so clearly. That's fine for me. The future games on this map will test our conclusions.