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Essbee
Canada2371 Posts
On October 30 2020 12:34 TornadoSteve wrote: Any thoughts about my earlier post? Is this a common thing at higher level? I feel like ZerO's mind game are very deep and the guy is still under rated af. That's a good post to show how better and smarter some players are. I wish we could find more examples like this. | ||
TaardadAiel
Bulgaria750 Posts
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RKC
2848 Posts
On October 30 2020 12:34 TornadoSteve wrote: Any thoughts about my earlier post? Is this a common thing at higher level? I feel like ZerO's mind game are very deep and the guy is still under rated af. Cool observation. Gosu players seem to have all this subtle but great plays - for misdirection and mind-games. Another example is Flash v Snow. Someone mentioned that during the post-game stream, Flash mentioned how he deliberately kept his dragoons from attacking Snow so not to reveal he had (or had not) upgraded dragoon range. That's why I'm curious to know what was Best's gameplay. Just like his two stargates that didn't work out against Zero. If cunning plays work, the player looks like a genius. But if they fall flat, he looks silly. Problem is we viewers tend to be overly critical on misplays without knowing the meta mind-games at play. | ||
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oxKnu
1259 Posts
As far as I remember, he was spectacularly poor. | ||
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Essbee
Canada2371 Posts
On October 30 2020 23:40 Light- wrote: Agreed. If we want to try to evaluate balance statistically we need to control for as many variables as possible, and so it's imperative to control for player quality by only looking at the data from the matches between the best players. Likewise, I believe map balance can be controlled by taking games from a significant number (close to 30 or more) of maps to remove the effect of map imbalance. Random sampling is important because the effects of any one or two forces is drowned by the noise of all the different things. If a pattern still emerges even after taking a statistically significant random sample, then by reason it is clear there is a fundamental effect going on. The hard truth for some to accept is that, throughout BW's history, ZvP has always shown the largest gap in the numbers. But as I said before, the jury is still out, the gap is not egregious, and it is very well likely due to the gaps in player skill. The ASL could decide to make more maps like Third World (a recent map) to really push for a protoss winner if they really wanted to but then it just feels unfair to better players like Flash who get punished for simply being better (which is what happened in ASL5). Maps have such a big effect on balance that changing the races themselves will do nothing since you can just adjust the maps to make these changes have no real impact in the end. The maps, by themselves, can completely control the balance. My post is a bit beside your point, but I just felt like pointing that out  | ||
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Essbee
Canada2371 Posts
On October 31 2020 00:04 oxKnu wrote: I'd like to see evidence that shows that Light has managed to be better than many other Protosses for the brief period that he switched to Protoss. As far as I remember, he was spectacularly poor. He beat flash in a straight up macro PvT. He gave a build to Bisu for PvT too. | ||
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RKC
2848 Posts
On October 31 2020 00:09 Essbee wrote: The ASL could decide to make more maps like Third World (a recent map) to really push for a protoss winner if they really wanted to but then it just feels unfair to better players like Flash who get punished for simply being better (which is what happened in ASL5). Maps have such a big effect on balance that changing the races themselves will do nothing since you can just adjust the maps to make these changes have no real impact in the end. The maps, by themselves, can completely control the balance. My post is a bit beside your point, but I just felt like pointing that out I'm not too familiar with BW history. Has there been any recent Starleague season pre or post Kespa where the map pool was greatly imbalanced against Z in ZvP? What were those maps like? Yeah, that season was really harsh on Flash. People argue that he lost the balanced maps against Snow and won the Protoss-favoured maps. But that's overlooking the fact that a Terran is obviously put under greater stress and disadvantage preparing for an imbalanced map pool. | ||
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TaardadAiel
Bulgaria750 Posts
On October 31 2020 00:02 RKC wrote: Cool observation. Gosu players seem to have all this subtle but great plays - for misdirection and mind-games. Another example is Flash v Snow. Someone mentioned that during the post-game stream, Flash mentioned how he deliberately kept his dragoons from attacking Snow so not to reveal he had (or had not) upgraded dragoon range. That's why I'm curious to know what was Best's gameplay. Just like his two stargates that didn't work out against Zero. If cunning plays work, the player looks like a genius. But if they fall flat, he looks silly. Problem is we viewers tend to be overly critical on misplays without knowing the meta mind-games at play. It is a cool observation and he also tried to compound the ovie mindgame by sending a drone to the natural when he had like 100 minerals. I didn't spot the ovie at first, but saw the drone. Neat little play. And yes, your second paragraph is so true. And even higher-level players among the viewers spotted those - Jaeyun first commented on the two stargate gambit, IIRC. Imagine how many other small bits and details we miss, not only casual observers such as myself, but strong foreigners like Jaeyun or Avi. | ||
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Essbee
Canada2371 Posts
On October 31 2020 00:14 RKC wrote: I'm not too familiar with BW history. Has there been any recent Starleague season pre or post Kespa where the map pool was greatly imbalanced against Z in ZvP? What were those maps like? Yeah, that season was really harsh on Flash. People argue that he lost the balanced maps against Snow and won the Protoss-favoured maps. But that's overlooking the fact that a Terran is obviously put under greater stress and disadvantage preparing for an imbalanced map pool. There were a few maps in the past that were greatly favored for protoss. I'm a terran player so I'm not too sure what makes a great PvZ map but reading the previous posts in this thread, I guess a mineral only third is bad for protoss since zerg can already expand at another main base and get their gas and toss can't. There are more factors, ofc, but that's a quick one. | ||
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Light-
United States25 Posts
On October 31 2020 00:09 Essbee wrote: The ASL could decide to make more maps like Third World (a recent map) to really push for a protoss winner if they really wanted to but then it just feels unfair to better players like Flash who get punished for simply being better (which is what happened in ASL5). Maps have such a big effect on balance that changing the races themselves will do nothing since you can just adjust the maps to make these changes have no real impact in the end. The maps, by themselves, can completely control the balance. My post is a bit beside your point, but I just felt like pointing that out Yeah maps really can have such a huge impact on how things play out. When imba map pools knock out certain races early, it can magnify any issues with the other races, and this all affects the numbers. We need balanced maps, but new maps as well, but sometimes we'll get duds. I like that players can veto maps though, and I think some of the current maps are pretty interesting, I like the experimentation with the deep high ground in Polypoid and the half-island bases in Optimizer. | ||
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Avi-Love
Denmark423 Posts
On October 30 2020 23:15 Light- wrote: Clearly you're interpreting the data differently than I, we'll agree to disagree. Our exchange is going nowhere, nothing I try to explain seems to get through to you. You're still going on about old maps being used when they were only used in 10 or less games for those 5 sets of legacy matches, but apparently 5 series out of 60 has a big impact or represents the whole. Yet Spon stats include thousands of games from the lowest to the highest is not problematic. Then you admit you're not a mathematician and statistician. Clearly not, with statements like "535 is a great sample size, it's not" but, a 3 game set against Flash is "SIGNIFICANT FOR STATISTICS." Well, you might be interested to know every psychologist is required to study statistics. To me, you just seem to cherry pick and misrepresent data to fit your beliefs, and that's a shame. So go ahead and don't post anymore, I'd rather not have to deal with someone who calls people ignorant and dishonest yet resorts to insults and false claims. I can't believe you're dragging me back into this with your fake logic and sub 1500 mmr thinking, I really should know better. You clearly don't play brood war, or you would recognize that the VAST MAJORITY of the games of your spectacular perfect sample size are played out OUTDATED MAPS. Do you understand the concept that bw is not balanced through patches, but through maps? It's fairly self-evident in that there has been no fucking balance patch for a very long period of time. Now that you accept such a concept, ask yourself "I wonder why old maps are old"; since you seem incapable of critical thinking I'll give you the answer: Maps rotate out 1) because they are imbalanced, and/or 2) because they get stale. So let's have a critical analysis of your flawless and great sample, any legitimate scientist out there would welcome this kind of a thing! First things first, let's define current maps, I put forth that we accept the current ASL map pool. This is not to say that the map pool is balanced (it's obviously not, I've discussed that in earlier posts) but for the sake of the most recent and in-meta maps it's by far the best choice. Since ASL is also the *only* big tournament in brood war, it sets the stage for all other events. As always fairly evident from KCM/Ultimate battle always using the recent ASL maps for their events (Although if ASL is not ongoing or it's been awhile they might put in a few "fun" or "old" maps, but in general I think it is both fair and correct to say that it large follows ASL (Back when KSL was a thing you could include those, of course.). Now how many games in YOUR ultimate battle liquipedia post (your sample, your link, your reference) is played on those maps? Benzene 11 games. Eclipse 9 games. Optimizer 8 games. Plasma 11 games. Polypoid 28 games. Ringing bloom 12 games. Shakuras Temple 9 games. That's 88 games out of 585. Pray tell Mr. Scientist, how useful is that to determine current balance? Do you think having an average of 12.5 games played per ASL maps is still a "great sample" as YOU claimed it was? Way better than the THOUSANDS of games on sponbbang? You say you studied statstics, but you claim that the 10 games on old maps played in legacy showmatches was statistically irrelevant, but the 12.5 on ASL maps is a great sample? Then you try to argue the need for random maps being inserted to "drown out the noise"? You realise that your sample here is overwhelmingly random useless maps and almost no current ones? That's the worst kind of science I've ever seen. Furthermore, you have this innate false logic that you have to only analyse the VERY BEST players in a game to determine balance. YOU claim that Best playing against Sharp and Rush, and Stork playing against Leta Jyj and Piano should NOT count in any sort of evaluation, yet your fucking sample is FULL of those very players? The mental gymnastics required to be this dense is literally bewildering. Furthermore, if you only want to analyse the very top players, you can easily analyse why that it is a ridiculous notion but looking at the extremes (this is fairly normal for any sort of scientific theory). So let's look at that extreme, we only care about the very best, so let's look at Flash. Since 05/2019 (the start of YOUR great sample, thus a date you believe to be an optimal starting point of this investigation) Flash has a winning record against basically every single progamer in the world, and almost all of them would have the kind of win percentage YOU YOURSELF defined as being unsuitable and "lopsided". So you have an impossible investigation based on bad science, case closed. (For anyone curious, in that period of time Flash is 121-55 vs Zero, 42-21 vs Bisu, 35-11 vs hero, 255-98 vs Larva, 25-7 vs Light, etc etc.) Lastly I have absolutely no fucking agenda, I have no reason to cherry pick data or misrepresent them, unlike YOU. Because the only claim I've made is that 1) Best lost on the day because he played poorly. and 2) the ASL maps are, thus far, overall balanced in PvZ -- and by balanced I DONT MEAN 50/50 every single map, but rather that there is give and take. Most of the maps are slightly zerg favoured, but Plasma is overwhelmingly protoss favoured, and Benzene is very zerg favoured (feel free to check my post with the win rates on all of these maps). You even make the claim that "the hard truth for some to accept is that, throughout BW's history, ZvP has always shown the largest gap in the numbers" which is just not based on anything, TvZ has been equally egregious, and PvT has at times. If you look at the entire spon sample you'll quickly see that ZvT is actually worse than PvZ. But over the last year that has shifted. It has unfortunately become crystal clear to me that you're not an active brood war player (and that you've never been good enough at the game to grasp the basic concepts of it, which is something you have in common with most of the people in this thread). You also have some of the worst theory/science I've ever encountered, and I am a humanities major. But keep drowning out your real and useful sample with 6 parts trash, I'm sure it'll serve you well. Unfortunately it's also crystal clear to me that you're a protoss player trying to scientifically proving that your race is disadvantaged, which is dishonest, and the way of going about it is downright unscientific and ignorant. Final Edit: You might consider this rude, but in my defense while my agreeableness score is moderately high, my politeness is not. It is what it is! | ||
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Essbee
Canada2371 Posts
On October 31 2020 01:00 Light- wrote: Yeah maps really can have such a huge impact on how things play out. When imba map pools knock out certain races early, it can magnify any issues with the other races, and this all affects the numbers. We need balanced maps, but new maps as well, but sometimes we'll get duds. I like that players can veto maps though, and I think some of the current maps are pretty interesting, I like the experimentation with the deep high ground in Polypoid and the half-island bases in Optimizer. Completely agreed. Good point on the bolded. | ||
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oxKnu
1259 Posts
On October 31 2020 00:09 Essbee wrote: He beat flash in a straight up macro PvT. He gave a build to Bisu for PvT too. How is this in any way significant and/or validating of your claim? Are you basing this on ONE game? Flash on the other hand has proven that he can win consistently against the best Terrans in the world with Protoss, including LAN competitions. That's what I call a significant indicator. | ||
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Essbee
Canada2371 Posts
On October 31 2020 01:53 oxKnu wrote: How is this in any way significant and/or validating of your claim? Are you basing this on ONE game? Flash on the other hand has proven that he can win consistently against the best Terrans in the world with Protoss, including LAN competitions. That's what I call a significant indicator. Ok, I'm not sure what your point is. If you don't want to include Light, that's fine. But yes beating flash with your offrace (even just one game) is damn impressive in itself. | ||
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kaspa84
Brazil169 Posts
On October 31 2020 00:14 RKC wrote: I'm not too familiar with BW history. Has there been any recent Starleague season pre or post Kespa where the map pool was greatly imbalanced against Z in ZvP? What were those maps like? Yeah, that season was really harsh on Flash. People argue that he lost the balanced maps against Snow and won the Protoss-favoured maps. But that's overlooking the fact that a Terran is obviously put under greater stress and disadvantage preparing for an imbalanced map pool. And maybe that's what almost always happen to Ps when they have to prepare for multiple imbalanced maps in PvZ? They get put under stress and disadvantage? | ||
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TaardadAiel
Bulgaria750 Posts
On October 31 2020 03:35 Essbee wrote: Ok, I'm not sure what your point is. If you don't want to include Light, that's fine. But yes beating flash with your offrace (even just one game) is damn impressive in itself. Light beats Flash PvT, not impressive. Flash beats Rush PvT, everyone loses their minds. | ||
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kaspa84
Brazil169 Posts
*Proceeds to emotionally rant endlessly* | ||
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Essbee
Canada2371 Posts
On October 31 2020 04:17 TaardadAiel wrote: Light beats Flash PvT, not impressive. Flash beats Rush PvT, everyone loses their minds. Lmao, pretty much. | ||
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oxKnu
1259 Posts
On October 31 2020 03:35 Essbee wrote: Ok, I'm not sure what your point is. If you don't want to include Light, that's fine. But yes beating flash with your offrace (even just one game) is damn impressive in itself. Light is not worth including in the conversation simply because he has no record to back that up. Yes, one game is eons away from being enough to justify that. On the other hand, Flash's record as P (although he is R these days which is a disadvantage for his opponents) has been that of a Top10 player, some would say even Top5 although I'm not willing to go into that direction myself. Seasons ago, before Flash even announced that he might go R in ASL he was having accounts very close to the top of the ladder with him exclusively playing Protoss, against the other top pros. Protoss, not Random. 2700 MMR. At the same time, Light decided to change to playing to P for a season of KSL and got absolutely bopped in the qualifiers. Their off-race P is not close. | ||
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Essbee
Canada2371 Posts
On October 31 2020 05:36 oxKnu wrote: Light is not worth including in the conversation simply because he has no record to back that up. Yes, one game is eons away from being enough to justify that. On the other hand, Flash's record as P (although he is R these days which is a disadvantage for his opponents) has been that of a Top10 player, some would say even Top5 although I'm not willing to go into that direction myself. Seasons ago, before Flash even announced that he might go R in ASL he was having accounts very close to the top of the ladder with him exclusively playing Protoss, against the other top pros. Protoss, not Random. 2700 MMR. At the same time, Light decided to change to playing to P for a season of KSL and got absolutely bopped in the qualifiers. Their off-race P is not close. Ok, fair enough. It doesn't change my original point but I can agree with this. I still think Light's protoss is better now than it was, but I can't really prove this. I'd like to see some stats for it. | ||
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