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On October 30 2017 00:01 Keniji wrote:
I am with eonzerg on this one, and I really enjoy watching larva as well.
But doesn't he has something like a ~30% winrate vs flash? And we all know that a 70% winrate is bonjwa lvl dominating in BW.
So I don't know where the opinion comes from that larva is this super hero zerg that is on par with flash, while hero will get absolutely crushed. They are both huge underdogs, with one of them having zero big stage experience. (hint: it's not hero)
The opinion comes from his ZvT games and nowhere else and currently Soulkey, Larva and Effort are the best ZvTs. But hero ffs. This is the perfect case when a worse player scrapes out a victory in a the most unpredictable matchup and ruins the finals for all of us.
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TLADT24920 Posts
On October 29 2017 21:30 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
post scores of larva vs flash
about ssak u tell me,it looks to me u made his ssl run less impresive no?
what? you should be the one posting the stats because you are the one claiming that larva wins 23 from 150 games. You realize that comes out to 15%, right? There is absolutely no way that Larva is winning 1 game from every 7 that they play, not when he's had days where he smacks Flash around for several in a row. There is a larva report thread that gets updated on a decent enough basis. I suggest you give it a look for more info: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/brood-war/522647-larvas-progress-report
I was talking about Last's run to the finals, not sSak. Last made the SSL10 finals playing mostly stellar TvT, much like hero made the finals playing stellar ZvZ. That's all there was to my statement. Also, why do you keep bringing up sSak? I've already said that I think he has huge potential when he actually practices. He can legit be the second best terran behind Flash if he actually dedicates time to BW but he doesn't give a shit XD
On October 29 2017 21:33 Netto. wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2017 21:18 BigFan wrote:
so, losing to sSak who just beat Last, Jaedong etc... last ASL convincingly and who seems to have a high potential if he legit practices is a blemish on Larva's record? I'm not sure what argument you're trying to make here. He just dislikes Larva or something and brings some 2016 game of hero vs flash on La Mancha, which, in his opinion is more valuable resource then countless of recent games Larva palyed against flash. Pretty ridiculous if you ask me.
I'm honestly not sure what 2016 game he's talking about but the skill level changes so much for these guys. If we want to consider the best ZvTer right now, we have to look at the most recent games. Larva is one of the leading players against Flash with EffOrt and Soulkey.
On October 29 2017 21:54 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
i just dont understand this false believe that Larva will trash flash in a finals and everyone is hating hero ,liek what the hell ? this guy is a regular player from proleague,had results in OSL and won the Sonic starleague vs Bisu.im pretty sure he will prepare zvt and do a good job.and will not fall by nerves.
No one said Larva will trash Flash. Most are saying that there is a chance that the finals would be much better and more enjoyable if Larva actually advanced to meet Flash compared to hero who's ZvT has always been pretty bad. PL/OSL/SSL performance is great stuff and I always refer to it in my writeups because there's value in history, however, the environment is extremely different from then. Yes, hero was great and won SSL11 but his ZvT has always looked pretty weak.
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Noo Larva  Well he can still battle for third place.
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So far the 6-month spon match records are still on point when it comes to likelihood of outcomes in the ASL.
hero is statistically better than Larva in spon matches, albeit the very small sample.
hero vs Larva Z 6W 1L 85.7%
Larva actually did pretty well forcing a closer match than expected.
Flash win rate vs
hero Z 54W 14L 79.4%
Larva Z 159W 71L 69.1%
So yes, statistically Larva has a better chance of winning vs Flash, but hero is really just better vs Larva. And here we are.
Next up, Flash is 66.7% vs Bisu in spons -- Flash has a chance to win with a slight edge.
If that happens then the finals will most likely be a TvZ stomp.
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TLADT24920 Posts
On October 30 2017 01:35 orvinreyes wrote:
So far the 6-month spon match records are still on point when it comes to likelihood of outcomes in the ASL.
hero is statistically better than Larva in spon matches, albeit the very small sample.
hero vs Larva Z 6W 1L 85.7%
Larva actually did pretty well forcing a closer match than expected.
Flash win rate vs
hero Z 54W 14L 79.4%
Larva Z 159W 71L 69.1%
So yes, statistically Larva has a better chance of winning vs Flash, but hero is really just better vs Larva. And here we are.
Next up, Flash is 66.7% vs Bisu in spons -- Flash has a chance to win with a slight edge.
If that happens then the finals will most likely be a TvZ stomp.
Thanks for posting the stats. Do you have anything for Sept/Oct for Larva vs Flash? I want to see those stats the most.
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On October 30 2017 01:40 BigFan wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2017 01:35 orvinreyes wrote:
So far the 6-month spon match records are still on point when it comes to likelihood of outcomes in the ASL.
hero is statistically better than Larva in spon matches, albeit the very small sample.
hero vs Larva Z 6W 1L 85.7%
Larva actually did pretty well forcing a closer match than expected.
Flash win rate vs
hero Z 54W 14L 79.4%
Larva Z 159W 71L 69.1%
So yes, statistically Larva has a better chance of winning vs Flash, but hero is really just better vs Larva. And here we are.
Next up, Flash is 66.7% vs Bisu in spons -- Flash has a chance to win with a slight edge.
If that happens then the finals will most likely be a TvZ stomp. Thanks for posting the stats. Do you have anything for Sept/Oct for Larva vs Flash? I want to see those stats the most.
Over the course of sepember and october, Larva is 19:66 vs Flash and Hero is 5:18. Both are huge underdogs. Vs Bisu Larva is 18:34 and Hero is 8:17. Currently Hero is 9th in the Elo rankings from online money matches, while Larva is 13th.
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On October 29 2017 20:21 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2017 20:18 outscar wrote:On October 29 2017 20:17 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2017 20:16 outscar wrote:
I'm not even going to watch finals if herO ZvZ his way to finals. The winner of Bisu vs. FlaSh can auto get trophy. zzzzzzzz once again with the shitty attitude from you people. good lord. Well I'm pretty sick from FlaSh 3 0 ing every finals. Gets ultra boring. yeah im a fan of zvz, but when a player is a zvz specialist its just not cool for overall tournament.
If anything herO is a ZvP specialist...
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On October 29 2017 20:46 _Animus_ wrote:
Afreeca need to announce another ASL soon to keep vewers interest, because this is over.
All depends on who wins other semi. herO is best known for his ZvP, so if we had a suprise and Bisu wins it should be a good finals. I'd still pick Bisu to win, but herO has about as good of a chance as anyone in that MU.
Versus FlaSh...well ya lol.
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I really think that the only Zerg who can beat Flash in best of 5 series is Effort atm, it doesnt really matter if soulkey, lavra or hero will lose in the final, perhaps hero will lose 3:0 and the other two could take a game,but at the end Flash will win anyway.
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I knew it! Like larva, because he's new talent. But he's a bit cocky. And he's got a ways to go. Better luck next time...
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On October 29 2017 21:54 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
i just dont understand this false believe that Larva will trash flash in a finals and everyone is hating hero ,liek what the hell ? this guy is a regular player from proleague,had results in OSL and won the Sonic starleague vs Bisu.im pretty sure he will prepare zvt and do a good job.and will not fall by nerves.
I don't think (I hope anyway) that people think Larva will trash FlaSh. In fact, I'd be suprised if most people even thought Larva would beat Flash. If they do, well in my opinion they are a little crazy in the head.
With that in mind, I thought Larva has as good a chance to beat FlaSh as anyone, except EffOrt...who I would say has similar chances. Those chances though, for either zerg, are quite low. I'd expect a 3-1 in FlaSh v Larva, with a small possibility of 3-2 or 3-0 in favor of FlaSh.
In the case of herO I expect a 3-0 with the games being pretty onesided. I don't really see too many people trashing herO, outside of saying he has no real chance against Flash, which I rather agree with. I see a few people trashing the bracket design that allowed herO to play a ton of ZvZ to get into the finals, but more or less everybody was saying herO played well and has good ZvZ. People are only upset because they would have rather had a Larva v Flash finals, with a slightly better chance of zerg victory and better chance of quality long games.
Perhaps herO will surprise, but in general his ZvT does not look or seem impressive. If Bisu wins we will have a fantastic finals in all likelihood. HerO can play some serious ZvP.
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I'm just impressed by hero's zvz. I don't dispute that larva feel like the overall better player but this isn't the first time somebody reached a final by getting favorable matchups. Do we need the drama every time? This wasn't even a proper upset. If you watched hero vs soulkey you knew hero's zvz was looking great.
I think it will be bisu in the finals, flash doesn't feel like he's on the top of his game at the moment
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Well shit I really wanted Larva to make the finals. With how his ZvP and ZvT are I think the finals would have been amazing regardless if it was Bisu or Flash (most likely Flash). Oh well I hope Hero can surprise all of us in the finals.
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On October 30 2017 02:06 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2017 20:21 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:On October 29 2017 20:18 outscar wrote:On October 29 2017 20:17 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2017 20:16 outscar wrote:
I'm not even going to watch finals if herO ZvZ his way to finals. The winner of Bisu vs. FlaSh can auto get trophy. zzzzzzzz once again with the shitty attitude from you people. good lord. Well I'm pretty sick from FlaSh 3 0 ing every finals. Gets ultra boring. yeah im a fan of zvz, but when a player is a zvz specialist its just not cool for overall tournament. If anything herO is a ZvP specialist...
a shame flash is gonna trounce bisu so his zvp doesnt matter
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What's with this idea of Hero making the finals boring? Hero overcame his traditionally weak ZvZ and promised after he won to do the same with TvZ. It's not like he's horrible at it, sure maybe not as good as Larva but he's decent. The guy broke all expectations since Ro.16- give him a goddamn shot.
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Because we dont expect him to suddenly become a master of zvt in a couple of weeks. Even his zvp has looked meh lately.
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Damn herO got to the finals by only zvz'ing.. xD
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widescreen user in the finals!
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Kau
Canada3500 Posts
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Guys calm down, Flash will play as Zerg in the finals so we can have an exciting series where he win in more than 3 games.
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EPT
