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We are prisoners of the moment. Larva has been playing better lately but hero has been trading places at the top of the Zerg mountain with Zero and Effort for a long time.
Furthermore, he has ideal practice partners in Mini and Last regardless of the finals match up.
I would expect hero to put up a better fight on the big stage than larva regardless of the recent surge by larva.
Regarding his ZvT, there was a period of time when hero was destroying Terrans to such an extent that Effort and Zero studied his VODs to figure out what was going on. He's not always on top of his ZvT game, but he's got a unique style that's slightly off the usual ZvT standard patterns. Granted, he is streaky in that matchup, but that works in his favor against a behemoth like Flash. No one can beat Flash without getting a little streaky.
Of course, I expect Flash to beat everyone, but hero can make it closer than you would think.
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Eonzerg has it right here.
If you want to talk talent, Effort’s your man. Nobody wants to play that guy in a 5-game series. I was rooting for Larva as well and I think from a hype perspective that would generate the most interest rather than seeing Hero. But it’s absolutely absurd to say Larva would beat Flash and Hero would get crushed 3-0. It’s one thing to say Larva has a better shot, like 5-10% better odds, but to polarize the results like that is craziness. Hero is not Shine. Not saying Hero won’t get 3-0’d, it can surely happen, but it’s not like Larva would’ve had much better odds.
Also, if Bisu comes out, he wouldn’t be ecstatic to face Hero’s ZvP. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bisu was sad that Hero came out instead of SK/Larva. Flash was probably happy, though.
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30% winning rate versus Flash in training games so what? Hero is the obviously superior player in two even three match-up. Larva has stepped up his game, yes but that's it. The BETTER player won. Show respect please!.
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I was a bit disappointing in the games, it seemed like the winner was decided in the first real battle each time and just rolled over from there.
Surprising to see all 5 games play out so decisively and straight forward.
The proxy hatch didn't make much sense, Hero knew something was up as soon as he saw Larvas main.
I have very fond memories of watching Hero back in the day so I am really happy to watch him get to the finals, but Larva has more hype and personality at the moment so I was torn about who to root for. I am a bigger fan of Hero but Larva had momentum.
I feel torn about Bisu vs. Flash as well, I would love to see Bisu get another gold before going off to the army but Flash winning 3 straight would also be cool.
But I might even root for Hero in the finals, that would be cool as hell.
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Even though Larva lost I think he really stepped up this asl. Seems he is getting more used to live games and also his zvz improved a lot. He got some good wins.
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Larva is one of my favorite players but her0 doesn't actually have that much less equity than him vs flash. Effort has prob 40%, larva 33%, hero 25%. Something like that. I've seen her0 beat top tier terrans plenty of times. He has good mechanics; high apm and eapm. He has good queen control and his swarms and drops might not be soulkey level but it's close. He plays well on LAN too
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On October 30 2017 11:42 traxamillion wrote:
Larva is one of my favorite players but her0 doesn't actually have that much less equity than him vs flash. Effort has prob 40%, larva 33%, hero 25%. Something like that. I've seen her0 beat top tier terrans plenty of times. He has good mechanics; high apm and eapm. He has good queen control and his swarms and drops might not be soulkey level but it's close. He plays well on LAN too
That gives me hope, thanks. I'll watch hero's stream when I can. But he doesn't seem to be online very often 
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Larva had a spectacular run for someone who's previously never made it past the first round group stage in the ASL.
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Sad to see Larva lose. Did pretty good to regroup himself and win the next two games after the proxy fail. Hero just to good in the end though. Should be interesting to see how he goes against Flash/Bisu.
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Lmao. Hero is fucked. such an easy finals for bisu or flash. this next game will be the real finals
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On October 30 2017 01:40 BigFan wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2017 01:35 orvinreyes wrote:
So far the 6-month spon match records are still on point when it comes to likelihood of outcomes in the ASL.
hero is statistically better than Larva in spon matches, albeit the very small sample.
hero vs Larva Z 6W 1L 85.7%
Larva actually did pretty well forcing a closer match than expected.
Flash win rate vs
hero Z 54W 14L 79.4%
Larva Z 159W 71L 69.1%
So yes, statistically Larva has a better chance of winning vs Flash, but hero is really just better vs Larva. And here we are.
Next up, Flash is 66.7% vs Bisu in spons -- Flash has a chance to win with a slight edge.
If that happens then the finals will most likely be a TvZ stomp. Thanks for posting the stats. Do you have anything for Sept/Oct for Larva vs Flash? I want to see those stats the most.
From 9/5 - 10/28
Flash T vs Larva Z 66W 19L 77.6%
Yikes. I guess Flash has been getting so used to his style over the months. Not looking good for Larva.
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Can someone explain how Hero is better at mining than Larva?
Game 4 (Crossing Field): 12 hatch mirror. When Hero hits 304 minerals, Larva is only at 264! Hero's hatchery starts multiple seconds before Larva can even afford his. Hero's pool and gas are also significantly earlier.
Game 2 (Gladiator): Also 12 hatch mirror. Hero's hatchery starts significantly earlier than Larva's.
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On October 30 2017 14:09 blueblimp wrote:
Can someone explain how Hero is better at mining than Larva?
Game 4 (Crossing Field): 12 hatch mirror. When Hero hits 304 minerals, Larva is only at 264! Hero's hatchery starts multiple seconds before Larva can even afford his. Hero's pool and gas are also significantly earlier.
Game 2 (Gladiator): Also 12 hatch mirror. Hero's hatchery starts significantly earlier than Larva's.
Better split, better choice of mineral patches mined and last but not least (probably the most important part, since I doubt Larva would suck at the first two) also luck. Sometimes worker take a longer route than optimal. You can try to force them into a better return cargo route by placing your buildings in certain spaces, but when you go 12 Hatch you do not really have a building as a zerg to optimize the return cargo route.
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Bulgaria750 Posts
Man, am I happy for hero! Larva was a great factor this season, added a lot of hype and played some incredible games, but to be honest his attitude was a bit too much for me and I think he needs some more refinement and more high-level offline experience to be able to consistently beat the top players and have grounds for those ego-puffs. I agree they add spice to the scene, they are not a bad thing, it's just that when someone acts like that and then loses, you inevitably think "well, this time they got him". And hero just played really, really well, scouting properly, displaying good micro on both lings and mutas and having great build orders. Totally deserved place in the finals, considering the circumstances (let's not forget these two were in the same 4 zerg group in the ro16) and I have no issue with him playing against Flash or Bisu, unlike most of the populace, it seems. I actually prefer seeing him, as opposed to Larva, play Bisu in the finals. Not another extremely well executed "I turtled, your move" defense series. But hey, whatever floats your boat, I guess.
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On October 30 2017 16:38 chrisolo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2017 14:09 blueblimp wrote:
Can someone explain how Hero is better at mining than Larva?
Game 4 (Crossing Field): 12 hatch mirror. When Hero hits 304 minerals, Larva is only at 264! Hero's hatchery starts multiple seconds before Larva can even afford his. Hero's pool and gas are also significantly earlier.
Game 2 (Gladiator): Also 12 hatch mirror. Hero's hatchery starts significantly earlier than Larva's. Better split, better choice of mineral patches mined and last but not least (probably the most important part, since I doubt Larva would suck at the first two) also luck. Sometimes worker take a longer route than optimal. You can try to force them into a better return cargo route by placing your buildings in certain spaces, but when you go 12 Hatch you do not really have a building as a zerg to optimize the return cargo route.
You can also "teach" your workers to take better routes in some cases; also, not only are there differences between different mineral patches, but there is also worker micro in selecting which mineral to send a Drone to when you are at low count of Drones but more than mineral patches. I haven't seen Larva doing it much in his recent games (I also haven't been watching as much), but I do recall seeing him do it in the past.
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On October 30 2017 14:09 blueblimp wrote:
Can someone explain how Hero is better at mining than Larva?
Game 4 (Crossing Field): 12 hatch mirror. When Hero hits 304 minerals, Larva is only at 264! Hero's hatchery starts multiple seconds before Larva can even afford his. Hero's pool and gas are also significantly earlier.
Game 2 (Gladiator): Also 12 hatch mirror. Hero's hatchery starts significantly earlier than Larva's.
Certain starting positions mine better than others
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United States4883 Posts
On October 30 2017 11:58 reincremate wrote:
Larva had a spectacular run for someone who's previously never made it past the first round group stage in the ASL.
Honestly, Larva has been a player with a lot of potential for a long time. I would say that nerves were a big issue in the first three ASLs since his games in the first group stage were horrible. Seems he's finally starting to get used to the stage, and it has definitely translated into more confident play from him as well.
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So sad Larva lost. Now if you're neutral you better hope for a ZvP final, because he has no chance (outside of cheeses) against Flash.
He prolly loses handily to Bisu too, but the MU favors him.
@Taardadiel, and how do you expect Her0 to play Bisu? Maybe he'll go for hydra busts... Is that more enjoyable? Because taking the natural of an empty main and defending it to guarantee a 4th gas is an universal strategy of zergs nowadays. Then it's up for the toss how the game will proceed. Rain and Bisu are good enough to keep attacking and harassing keeping the zerg play defensively if not, if a toss decide to play defensive as well then the Z can be aggressive. Larva's muta's switches are a joy to watch if you let him have the economy to do it, his multitask is also insane. It was Rain that forced him to turtle.
Now outside of Crossing Field and prolly gladiator, taking a natural and guaranteeing a 4th gas is standard and if HerO tries to play cute against Bisu he's gonna get destroyed.
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On October 30 2017 20:22 mcmascote wrote:
So sad Larva lost. Now if you're neutral you better hope for a ZvP final, because he has no chance (outside of cheeses) against Flash.
He prolly loses handily to Bisu too, but the MU favors him.
@Taardadiel, and how do you expect Her0 to play Bisu? Maybe he'll go for hydra busts... Is that more enjoyable? Because taking the natural of an empty main and defending it to guarantee a 4th gas is an universal strategy of zergs nowadays. Then it's up for the toss how the game will proceed. Rain and Bisu are good enough to keep attacking and harassing keeping the zerg play defensively if not, if a toss decide to play defensive as well then the Z can be aggressive. Larva's muta's switches are a joy to watch if you let him have the economy to do it, his multitask is also insane. It was Rain that forced him to turtle.
Now outside of Crossing Field and prolly gladiator, taking a natural and guaranteeing a 4th gas is standard and if HerO tries to play cute against Bisu he's gonna get destroyed.
He's just gonna have Shine play for him
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EPT
