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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On September 26 2009 22:04 Shikyo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2009 21:52 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 21:48 Holgerius wrote:
If it really was imbalanced, would Jaedong lose a single game? Seriously, take his ridiculous skill and combine that with imbalance and he would win 90 % of all his ZvPs. Look. Zergs are killing Protosses right now all of a sudden. The matchup is currently imbalanced, period. I have no idea why people are even arguing about this. The statistics I posted on Destination alone (going from 50% ZvP before March 1st to 60% after) should end the discussion of whether the metagame is favoring zerg or not. And your argument doesn't work because tbh people copying Jaedong's mid-game strategy is probably why Protosses are finding it really hard to win in the first place. Before it was 50% it was favoring Protoss. The map balance changed way before that. Also, there are a lot less good P players than there are good Z players. However, if the best PvZ players can PvZ evenly with the best ZvP players, the MU isn't imbalanced. EDIT: Also to mystlord, the zealarch push actually was used mostly in the latter half of 2008, with the domination of the 6 dragons and with JD losing to that build vs Tempest twice in a row.
Oh, my mistake then. I'm a bit fuzzy on that time period. In any case, I know for a fact that the 3 hatch spire to 5 hatch hydra build was adapted to beat off the Zealot Archon attack before March of 2009.
On September 26 2009 22:05 Kyo Yuy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2009 22:00 Mystlord wrote:On September 26 2009 21:52 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 21:48 Holgerius wrote:
If it really was imbalanced, would Jaedong lose a single game? Seriously, take his ridiculous skill and combine that with imbalance and he would win 90 % of all his ZvPs. Look. Zergs are killing Protosses right now all of a sudden. The matchup is currently imbalanced, period. I have no idea why people are even arguing about this. The statistics I posted on Destination alone (going from 50% ZvP before March 1st to 60% after) should end the discussion of whether the metagame is favoring zerg or not. And your argument doesn't work because tbh people copying Jaedong's mid-game strategy is probably why Protosses are finding it really hard to win in the first place. As you've probably learned in statistics, correlation does not imply causation. Stop using one map and one trend to try and argue for the whole. It doesn't work here. Then would 10 years of progaming history have any meaning to you? Even before Savior started tearing up Protosses it was widely believed that T>Z>P>T. Most of the people I've talked to still believe this. If statistics can't be used to argue a point, then perhaps you can tell me by what justification you say that PvZ is balanced, if at all? Also, I'm no expert, but according to Liquipedia, 3 hatch spire 5 hatch hydra is actually a COUNTER TO 4 gate 2 archon. http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft/3_Base_Spire_into_5_Hatch_Hydra_(vs._Protoss)#Counter_To
I never said that statistics can't be used to argue a point. I'm saying that if you look at a small example and see that the statistics fit your point, that statistic probably doesn't mean jack squat when you look at the big picture. A good example would be the map Nostalgia. The stats make it seem balanced, but if you look at the prevailing trends and players of the time, the map was actually fairly imbalanced.
The 2nd statement is mostly true and still holds true today. Plotting the overall trends of each match up through the years reveals that Terrans mostly hold a winning record against Zerg, Zerg mostly holds a winning record against Protoss... I'm not sure about the last one. However, the winning record isn't anything substantial like 70%. It generally falls within 40-60%, depending on the trends and builds of the time.
And Liquipedia is referencing the current iteration of the 3 hatch spire 5 hatch hydra build. There was a time when Hydralisk production was pushed back after the ~43 population mark as it is today.
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On September 26 2009 22:12 motbob wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2009 22:00 Mystlord wrote:On September 26 2009 21:52 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 21:48 Holgerius wrote:
If it really was imbalanced, would Jaedong lose a single game? Seriously, take his ridiculous skill and combine that with imbalance and he would win 90 % of all his ZvPs. Look. Zergs are killing Protosses right now all of a sudden. The matchup is currently imbalanced, period. I have no idea why people are even arguing about this. The statistics I posted on Destination alone (going from 50% ZvP before March 1st to 60% after) should end the discussion of whether the metagame is favoring zerg or not. And your argument doesn't work because tbh people copying Jaedong's mid-game strategy is probably why Protosses are finding it really hard to win in the first place. Statistics on one map don't point to the overall trend of a metagame, especially when the stats have shifted back to 50% now. On current maps, nothing has "shifted." On new maps, maybe things are better for toss, but that's not relevant. It's the mapmakers' job to make things balanced again. Show nested quote +And have you looked at the individual games and picked out those that were cheeses or just plain stupidity? Of course not. I assumes there would be cheeses and stupidity on both side and so I just took everything. Show nested quote +If I remember correctly, the 3 Hatch Spire to 5 Hatch Hydra build came out back in late 2008. The 4 Gate 2 Archon build then evolved early 2009 to counter. Then Zergs scaled back the greed and around March-April 2009 began to crush Protosses as they had no idea how to counter the tech switches and the sheer macro of Zerg players.
As you've probably learned in statistics, correlation does not imply causation. Stop using one map and one trend to try and argue for the whole. It doesn't work here. Are you saying that statistics becoming more skewed towards zerg doesn't necessarily mean that the matchup is imbalanced? Of course it means the matchup is imbalanced. That's what the statistics mean! And in the ZvP imba thread, I don't just use Destination as an example. I use every single current map.
Maybe it means that when the players are equally-skilled, the MU is fairly balanced, but that most Protoss players suck compared to most Zerg-players, and hence the better players win against the worse players most of the time, regardless of the races. Of course this might not be the case, but seeing as every other P is playing terribly atm, it's likely.
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Statistics does not prove an imbalance. It does not take players relative skill into consideration.
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^^Guys, take your stupid imbalance discussion to it's proper and idiotic thread.
On topic: I'm excited to watch these games on youtube, Boxer vs. Yellow should be fun.
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On September 26 2009 21:38 blue_arrow wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2009 21:36 .risingdragoon wrote:
lol man that was just too damn weird
jaedong looked serene, like a he's at peace and not his usual killer self dude he just came back from BC, canada on this long vacation with his close "friend"
you calling him gay, blue "arrow"?
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Last game was kind of a letdown. Watching the vods, I really wish Stork/Fantasy and Bisu/Jaedong played less serious. Going for timing attacks in an all-star game is kind of lame.
On September 26 2009 22:17 Shikyo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2009 22:12 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 22:00 Mystlord wrote:On September 26 2009 21:52 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 21:48 Holgerius wrote:
If it really was imbalanced, would Jaedong lose a single game? Seriously, take his ridiculous skill and combine that with imbalance and he would win 90 % of all his ZvPs. Look. Zergs are killing Protosses right now all of a sudden. The matchup is currently imbalanced, period. I have no idea why people are even arguing about this. The statistics I posted on Destination alone (going from 50% ZvP before March 1st to 60% after) should end the discussion of whether the metagame is favoring zerg or not. And your argument doesn't work because tbh people copying Jaedong's mid-game strategy is probably why Protosses are finding it really hard to win in the first place. Statistics on one map don't point to the overall trend of a metagame, especially when the stats have shifted back to 50% now. On current maps, nothing has "shifted." On new maps, maybe things are better for toss, but that's not relevant. It's the mapmakers' job to make things balanced again. And have you looked at the individual games and picked out those that were cheeses or just plain stupidity? Of course not. I assumes there would be cheeses and stupidity on both side and so I just took everything. If I remember correctly, the 3 Hatch Spire to 5 Hatch Hydra build came out back in late 2008. The 4 Gate 2 Archon build then evolved early 2009 to counter. Then Zergs scaled back the greed and around March-April 2009 began to crush Protosses as they had no idea how to counter the tech switches and the sheer macro of Zerg players.
As you've probably learned in statistics, correlation does not imply causation. Stop using one map and one trend to try and argue for the whole. It doesn't work here. Are you saying that statistics becoming more skewed towards zerg doesn't necessarily mean that the matchup is imbalanced? Of course it means the matchup is imbalanced. That's what the statistics mean! And in the ZvP imba thread, I don't just use Destination as an example. I use every single current map. Maybe it means that when the players are equally-skilled, the MU is fairly balanced, but that most Protoss players suck compared to most Zerg-players, and hence the better players win against the worse players most of the time, regardless of the races. Of course this might not be the case, but seeing as every other P is playing terribly atm, it's likely.
I like this logic. Every single progamer protoss sucks at PvZ at the moment.
Last OSL prelim PvZ record: 49-72(40%)
Last MST prelim PvZ record: 53-77(40%)
It's obvious that protoss is just not sexy enough, and that the best young recruits don't like the race, choosing instead the almighty zerg. Hence fully explaining why ZvP is so good towards zerg.
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On September 26 2009 22:15 motbob wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2009 22:04 Shikyo wrote:On September 26 2009 21:52 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 21:48 Holgerius wrote:
If it really was imbalanced, would Jaedong lose a single game? Seriously, take his ridiculous skill and combine that with imbalance and he would win 90 % of all his ZvPs. Look. Zergs are killing Protosses right now all of a sudden. The matchup is currently imbalanced, period. I have no idea why people are even arguing about this. The statistics I posted on Destination alone (going from 50% ZvP before March 1st to 60% after) should end the discussion of whether the metagame is favoring zerg or not. And your argument doesn't work because tbh people copying Jaedong's mid-game strategy is probably why Protosses are finding it really hard to win in the first place. However, if the best PvZ players can PvZ evenly with the best ZvP players, the MU isn't imbalanced. Yeah, the MU isn't imbalanced... for the top players. It also isn't imbalanced for D players on iccup. But it is imbalanced for pros as a whole right now.
There's no such thing as imbalanced "right now"
an imbalance means something inherently uneven, unchanging for ever.
if you look at the history of tvz, how often do you see the MU staying at completely even 50/50, or the more realistic 55/45? Or completely uneven?
![[image loading]](http://dl.getdropbox.com/u/4422/images/TL/history%20of%20tvz/TvsZ1.jpg)
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On September 26 2009 22:12 motbob wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2009 22:00 Mystlord wrote:On September 26 2009 21:52 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 21:48 Holgerius wrote:
If it really was imbalanced, would Jaedong lose a single game? Seriously, take his ridiculous skill and combine that with imbalance and he would win 90 % of all his ZvPs. Look. Zergs are killing Protosses right now all of a sudden. The matchup is currently imbalanced, period. I have no idea why people are even arguing about this. The statistics I posted on Destination alone (going from 50% ZvP before March 1st to 60% after) should end the discussion of whether the metagame is favoring zerg or not. And your argument doesn't work because tbh people copying Jaedong's mid-game strategy is probably why Protosses are finding it really hard to win in the first place. Statistics on one map don't point to the overall trend of a metagame, especially when the stats have shifted back to 50% now. On current maps, nothing has "shifted." On new maps, maybe things are better for toss, but that's not relevant. It's the mapmakers' job to make things balanced again.
Well obviously something has changed on the maps today as the statistics are skewing in one way. It might be the players or build orders, or just a ton of cheeses, or a combination of these factors. But you can't apply the changes that happen on Destination to the whole metagame. I'll cover the other maps when you address them below.
Show nested quote +And have you looked at the individual games and picked out those that were cheeses or just plain stupidity? Of course not. I assumes there would be cheeses and stupidity on both side and so I just took everything.
That's unfair. There is definitely a bias towards cheeses of a certain race in the statistics.
Show nested quote +If I remember correctly, the 3 Hatch Spire to 5 Hatch Hydra build came out back in late 2008. The 4 Gate 2 Archon build then evolved early 2009 to counter. Then Zergs scaled back the greed and around March-April 2009 began to crush Protosses as they had no idea how to counter the tech switches and the sheer macro of Zerg players.
As you've probably learned in statistics, correlation does not imply causation. Stop using one map and one trend to try and argue for the whole. It doesn't work here. Are you saying that statistics becoming more skewed towards zerg doesn't necessarily mean that the matchup is imbalanced? Of course it means the matchup is imbalanced. That's what the statistics mean! And in the ZvP imba thread, I don't just use Destination as an example. I use every single current map.
You're taking statistics for three maps and trying to use those to argue for the whole. It's an unfair assumption that you're making. Have you considered that Zerg cheeses are easier to pull off on those maps? Have you considered that Protoss players hit a period of decline during the period when those maps were dominant? Have you considered that taking the statistics of the minor league games and stuff like that might bias your results due to the fact that those games might be cheesier than the progames? Probably not. There are numerous other factors that can explain those statistical trends other than an imbalance in ZvP. You can't quote statistics and leave it at that.
As for the other maps that supposedly support your trend, you forget that Neo Medusa also includes the period when the Hatchery contain was viable. On all maps, you would be adding in games like Bisu vs. Roro or Luxury vs. Much that can ultimately skew the statistics since there is a fundamental skill gap between players.
Sure, there might be an imbalance in ZvP. I'm just saying that you're going about proving your point all wrong.
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On September 26 2009 22:33 baubo wrote:Last game was kind of a letdown. Watching the vods, I really wish Stork/Fantasy and Bisu/Jaedong played less serious. Going for timing attacks in an all-star game is kind of lame. Show nested quote +On September 26 2009 22:17 Shikyo wrote:On September 26 2009 22:12 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 22:00 Mystlord wrote:On September 26 2009 21:52 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 21:48 Holgerius wrote:
If it really was imbalanced, would Jaedong lose a single game? Seriously, take his ridiculous skill and combine that with imbalance and he would win 90 % of all his ZvPs. Look. Zergs are killing Protosses right now all of a sudden. The matchup is currently imbalanced, period. I have no idea why people are even arguing about this. The statistics I posted on Destination alone (going from 50% ZvP before March 1st to 60% after) should end the discussion of whether the metagame is favoring zerg or not. And your argument doesn't work because tbh people copying Jaedong's mid-game strategy is probably why Protosses are finding it really hard to win in the first place. Statistics on one map don't point to the overall trend of a metagame, especially when the stats have shifted back to 50% now. On current maps, nothing has "shifted." On new maps, maybe things are better for toss, but that's not relevant. It's the mapmakers' job to make things balanced again. And have you looked at the individual games and picked out those that were cheeses or just plain stupidity? Of course not. I assumes there would be cheeses and stupidity on both side and so I just took everything. If I remember correctly, the 3 Hatch Spire to 5 Hatch Hydra build came out back in late 2008. The 4 Gate 2 Archon build then evolved early 2009 to counter. Then Zergs scaled back the greed and around March-April 2009 began to crush Protosses as they had no idea how to counter the tech switches and the sheer macro of Zerg players.
As you've probably learned in statistics, correlation does not imply causation. Stop using one map and one trend to try and argue for the whole. It doesn't work here. Are you saying that statistics becoming more skewed towards zerg doesn't necessarily mean that the matchup is imbalanced? Of course it means the matchup is imbalanced. That's what the statistics mean! And in the ZvP imba thread, I don't just use Destination as an example. I use every single current map. Maybe it means that when the players are equally-skilled, the MU is fairly balanced, but that most Protoss players suck compared to most Zerg-players, and hence the better players win against the worse players most of the time, regardless of the races. Of course this might not be the case, but seeing as every other P is playing terribly atm, it's likely. I like this logic. Every single progamer protoss sucks at PvZ at the moment. Last OSL prelim PvZ record: 49-72(40%) Last MST prelim PvZ record: 53-77(40%) It's obvious that protoss is just not sexy enough, and that the best young recruits don't like the race, choosing instead the almighty zerg. Hence fully explaining why ZvP is so good towards zerg.
I like the logic motbob uses more:
S-class vs S-class (same skill level); balanced.
Iccup D player vs D player (same skill level); balanced.
Overall pro stats (not neccesarily same skill level); slightly favouring zerg (54% or something like that).
=
Imba.
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if you're really going to complain about race imba at a pro level, complain about the race that makes up probably half of the pro scene
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DAMNNNNN I MISSED THE GAMES OMGOMGOMG
VOD VOD VOD VOD!
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So the verdict is... yet another disappointing JD vs Bisu match? I don't think anyone expected it to be amazing given that both players were on vacation and it's just a showmatch, but I was hopin it'd be a good game between them. I guess we can hope for OSL this season.
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On September 26 2009 22:51 Holgerius wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2009 22:33 baubo wrote:Last game was kind of a letdown. Watching the vods, I really wish Stork/Fantasy and Bisu/Jaedong played less serious. Going for timing attacks in an all-star game is kind of lame. On September 26 2009 22:17 Shikyo wrote:On September 26 2009 22:12 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 22:00 Mystlord wrote:On September 26 2009 21:52 motbob wrote:On September 26 2009 21:48 Holgerius wrote:
If it really was imbalanced, would Jaedong lose a single game? Seriously, take his ridiculous skill and combine that with imbalance and he would win 90 % of all his ZvPs. Look. Zergs are killing Protosses right now all of a sudden. The matchup is currently imbalanced, period. I have no idea why people are even arguing about this. The statistics I posted on Destination alone (going from 50% ZvP before March 1st to 60% after) should end the discussion of whether the metagame is favoring zerg or not. And your argument doesn't work because tbh people copying Jaedong's mid-game strategy is probably why Protosses are finding it really hard to win in the first place. Statistics on one map don't point to the overall trend of a metagame, especially when the stats have shifted back to 50% now. On current maps, nothing has "shifted." On new maps, maybe things are better for toss, but that's not relevant. It's the mapmakers' job to make things balanced again. And have you looked at the individual games and picked out those that were cheeses or just plain stupidity? Of course not. I assumes there would be cheeses and stupidity on both side and so I just took everything. If I remember correctly, the 3 Hatch Spire to 5 Hatch Hydra build came out back in late 2008. The 4 Gate 2 Archon build then evolved early 2009 to counter. Then Zergs scaled back the greed and around March-April 2009 began to crush Protosses as they had no idea how to counter the tech switches and the sheer macro of Zerg players.
As you've probably learned in statistics, correlation does not imply causation. Stop using one map and one trend to try and argue for the whole. It doesn't work here. Are you saying that statistics becoming more skewed towards zerg doesn't necessarily mean that the matchup is imbalanced? Of course it means the matchup is imbalanced. That's what the statistics mean! And in the ZvP imba thread, I don't just use Destination as an example. I use every single current map. Maybe it means that when the players are equally-skilled, the MU is fairly balanced, but that most Protoss players suck compared to most Zerg-players, and hence the better players win against the worse players most of the time, regardless of the races. Of course this might not be the case, but seeing as every other P is playing terribly atm, it's likely. I like this logic. Every single progamer protoss sucks at PvZ at the moment. Last OSL prelim PvZ record: 49-72(40%) Last MST prelim PvZ record: 53-77(40%) It's obvious that protoss is just not sexy enough, and that the best young recruits don't like the race, choosing instead the almighty zerg. Hence fully explaining why ZvP is so good towards zerg. I like the logic motbob uses more: S-class vs S-class (same skill level); balanced. Iccup D player vs D player (same skill level); balanced. Overall pro stats (not neccesarily same skill level); slightly favouring zerg (54% or something like that). = Imba.
It's always been "54% or something like that", that's how it should go, and there's no need for any "ZvP imba recently" observation, it's always been. You shouldn't complain about Z>P, you should complain that P doesn't > vs T enough, like they should.
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9070 Posts
On September 26 2009 23:54 QuakerOats wrote:
So the verdict is... yet another disappointing JD vs Bisu match? I don't think anyone expected it to be amazing given that both players were on vacation and it's just a showmatch, but I was hopin it'd be a good game between them. I guess we can hope for OSL this season.
bisu was on top of his game
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FFFFFUUUUCK I MISSED THIS
will/when are vods up? Thanks in advance to the person(s) that gets the vods!!!
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On September 26 2009 23:54 QuakerOats wrote:
So the verdict is... yet another disappointing JD vs Bisu match? I don't think anyone expected it to be amazing given that both players were on vacation and it's just a showmatch, but I was hopin it'd be a good game between them. I guess we can hope for OSL this season.
It's only disappointing when JD loses.
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Lol at all the bisu fans who think this means Bisu is OBVIOUSLY after this match the better player.
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On September 27 2009 00:46 haley wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2009 23:54 QuakerOats wrote:
So the verdict is... yet another disappointing JD vs Bisu match? I don't think anyone expected it to be amazing given that both players were on vacation and it's just a showmatch, but I was hopin it'd be a good game between them. I guess we can hope for OSL this season. It's only disappointing when JD loses.
Yes, clearly. Thank you for responding to my post in such a thoughtful and insightful manner.
Edit: And yeah, I guess from a Bisu fan's perspective the match was good if he really was on top of his game. But I want to see a long close game, not a match lost because of failing to hold a ramp or a cancelled spire or just a one-sided rape in general.
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Anyone noticed that when no players really prepare for their matches protss win them all? :p
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EPT
