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[MSL spoiler] Elo - Page 4

Forum Index > BW General
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bash9
Profile Joined February 2008
25 Posts
February 15 2008 16:20 GMT
#61
ELO was innovative and accurate a long time ago. Now it is outdated and by modern standards it is a suboptimal system. The only reason it has survived is because it's simple, but we have computers, so a little more computational complexity shouldn't hurt (does anyone calculate ranks by hand today?).

Glicko or Trueskill vastly improve upon the ELO system by introducing an uncertainty parameter. This simple modification already fixes many of the "quirks" that people have been noticing in the ELO ranks and are by now taking for granted. ELO, they think, is not perfect after all. Not even close. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that we should switch to glicko, trueskill, or derivatives (glicko2 is my personal favorite for "live" rankings as it catches on more quickly to sudden massive dominance or sudden slumps). At least for our private comparisons over here at TL.net. It'll make it much more fun.

Also, don't confuse relative dominance and relative skill. Jaedong is the better player of the two, but he has a harder time if he really wants to "dominate."
PoP
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
France15446 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-02-15 17:27:06
February 15 2008 17:26 GMT
#62
bash9, do you have any idea as to where I could find a simple implementation of the glicko2 algorithm (or Trueskill for that matter)? Tried googling a while back but didn't find much.

Since it seems to be universally considered better than ELO, I'd really like to give it a try.
Administrator
KissBlade
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States5718 Posts
February 15 2008 19:17 GMT
#63
Heh, ELO, where Yellow beats Boxer.
Plexa
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Aotearoa39261 Posts
February 15 2008 20:21 GMT
#64
+ Show Spoiler [osl spoiler] +
losing to flash made his elo drop 13 points
he is now resting on 2296
Administrator~ Spirit will set you free ~
gwho
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
United States632 Posts
February 15 2008 20:32 GMT
#65
On February 15 2008 03:28 Storchen wrote:
what does ELO stands for and how is it calculated?

edit: found this about the calculation but it doesnt say what it stands for. so.. anybody?


wiki it.
disciple
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
9071 Posts
February 15 2008 21:57 GMT
#66
i dont like the idea... jaedong the most dominant ?! he is just lucky that all his rivals are in smth like a slump- yes jaedong is great, i like him very much but for me the dominance means titles, golden badges and a golden mouse... just a hot winning streak impresses for just a day or two, besides I really think Flash will take him out and the MSL is not so easy to win two (if JangBi somehow makes it to the final it will be) so jaedong has a lot to prove, because one OSL and 2300 elo wont be enough for the hall of fame
Administrator"I'm a big deal." - ixmike88
FieryBalrog
Profile Blog Joined July 2007
United States1381 Posts
February 15 2008 22:25 GMT
#67
ELO is only one stat

It doesn't measure dominance for sure, maybe skill and thats about it

Dominance is about both results and psyche, and right now JD although shit-hot is short on both compared to players like Savior, Oov, etc.
I will eat you alive
Plexa
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Aotearoa39261 Posts
February 15 2008 23:10 GMT
#68
as an interesting point, oov won his first OSL when his elo was slumping dramatically, and his second one was achieved at about 2230
by this we could say that Jaedong won't win this OSL because his elo is too high lol
Administrator~ Spirit will set you free ~
koryano321
Profile Joined June 2007
United States309 Posts
February 16 2008 00:03 GMT
#69
On February 15 2008 04:58 Ack1027 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2008 04:35 G5 wrote:
On February 15 2008 03:27 paper wrote:
how is his elo so high

when in contrast to oov, he barely has any tourny wins


Well, Jaedong has been dominant pretty much since he came onto the scene only really dying to Protoss players which he has changed recently. Iloveoov has also played a lot more games then Jaedong. Oov at 364 games, Jaedong at 137 games. Further more Jaedong's very first game as a progamer ever was in Proleague at the end of April in 2006. Iloveoovs first match? April 2003 (vs ElkY). Since he came on, Jaedong has been killing Proleague left and right and going pretty far in the few tournaments he has played, loosing to a Protoss at some point in there, until the last OSL where he destroyed Stork and went on to beat Bisu in the most recent OSL.

In his first 11 matches as a progamer Jaedong beat JiHyun, Reach, SoO, Kuni, GoRush and NaDa. Loosing to ELIZA, Tester, Casy, Free and XellOs (not much shame here).

Following this he went on a 13-1 win streak vs Much, iloveoov (who hes about to surpass), SaSin)bOy, Child, 2-1 vs Free, ELIZA, Coul[fOu], Mingu, ZergMaN, July and Justin. Following this he went about 60/40 for a while (mainly loosing to toss') until he suddenly went on a "I can't loose" streak and won the OSL Title and is where he is at today in the Semi-Finals of the MSL and Quarters in the OSL.

~ Interesting Notes ~

Throughout his career vs top tier Terrans he is 2-1 vs Iloveoov, 3-1 vs NaDa, 4-0 vs UpMagic, 4-3 vs Sea, 3-2 vs Light, 3-2 vs Flash, 3-2 vs XellOs, 1-0 vs IriS, 1-0 vs Hwasin and 0-3 Casy.

Completely owning the rest of the Terrans with a lifetime 41-17 (70.69%) vs Terran.


Throughout his career vs top tier Zergs he is 2-1 vs sAviOr, 2-2 vs July, 1-0 vs GoRush, 3-2 vs Luxury and 1-0 vs GGPlay.

Completely owning the rest of the Zergs with a lifetime 30-9 (76.92%) vs Zerg.


Throughout his career vs top tier Protoss' he is 1-1 vs Bisu, 3-3 vs Stork, 3-5 vs Free, 2-2 vs Much, 1-0 vs Reach, 1-0 vs Nal_rA, 0-1 vs Pusan and 2-3 vs Rock.

Going about 50/50 with the rest of the Protoss' with a lifetime 22-18 (55.00%) vs Protoss.



Currently I would say Jaedong is a monster with his 25-3 streak he is on right now and currently is more dominating then anyone. I am not sure how long he can stay that way, but I don't remember sAviOr going 25-3 or anything near it. I remember sAviOr always ending up getting the job done with 3-1 / 3-2 epic wins and such but never in SUCH DOMINANCE as Jaedongs straight up 2-0 / 3-0 rapes over and over. Iloveoov I know was very dominant but it was dominance in a long period of time such as sAviOr's 5(?) straight MSL finals and NaDa's 3 year #1 or w/e it was. Jaedong is just hot right now and simply isn't loosing anything. For the past 4 months (yes pretty short time) he has been unstoppable, I hope he can keep it up.

P.S. Looks like if anyone doesn't like Jaedong and wants him off the throne, they should become Casy fans because Casy seems like the best hope vs Jaedong (being 3-0 vs him and all).

Jaedong Figghting!


Ty for the explanation.

Although now it is kinda clear that him surpassing Oov's elo doesn't mean much at all, just a number since Oov's career is much more illustrious. He still hasn't reached the percentages Oov reached nor won the amount of awards. One thing I can't mention is the style in which he wins his games since I don't really watch progame vod's anymore. However, I think it would still be safe to say he doesn't win in the fashion Oov did back in the day. [ competition is harder now ]


if you dont even watch the games you shouldnt even be commenting on how dominating this player is -_-;;
Scorpio2012 wrote: i guess god is about as useful as a protoss scout
fusionsdf
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Canada15390 Posts
February 16 2008 03:28 GMT
#70
yes, because elo is inflationary
SKT_Best: "I actually chose Protoss because it was so hard for me to defeat Protoss as a Terran. When I first started Brood War, my main race was Terran."
Darkmole
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
United States900 Posts
February 16 2008 03:59 GMT
#71
i doubt jaedong is gonna win the MSL or OSL, my reasons will be his 0:1 against Flash (great game) and his gonna be facing Nada or Mind and Mind is amazing on TvZ and Nada is also good at TvZ and it wont matter who will face jaedong becuz Nada has trained Mind and Mind is ready to whoop his ass
Mindcrime
Profile Joined July 2004
United States6899 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-02-16 04:48:36
February 16 2008 04:48 GMT
#72
On February 16 2008 12:59 Darkmole wrote:
i doubt jaedong is gonna win the MSL or OSL, my reasons will be his 0:1 against Flash (great game) and his gonna be facing Nada or Mind and Mind is amazing on TvZ and Nada is also good at TvZ and it wont matter who will face jaedong becuz Nada has trained Mind and Mind is ready to whoop his ass


Mind does not have an amazing tvz. With the exception of the series against savior, it's been about average.

His tvp however...
That wasn't any act of God. That was an act of pure human fuckery.
IntoTheWow
Profile Blog Joined May 2004
is awesome32278 Posts
February 16 2008 05:42 GMT
#73
LOL, you'll never make it now J-Dong
Moderator<:3-/-<
NarutO
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
Germany18839 Posts
February 16 2008 05:46 GMT
#74
+ Show Spoiler +


ROFL FROZEAN > JAEDONG -100 points gogo!

CommentatorPolt | MMA | Jjakji | BoxeR | NaDa | MVP | MKP ... truly inspiring.
Wasabi
Profile Blog Joined August 2006
United States3085 Posts
February 16 2008 05:49 GMT
#75
--- Nuked ---
gravity
Profile Joined March 2004
Australia2041 Posts
February 16 2008 05:57 GMT
#76
On February 16 2008 12:28 fusionsdf wrote:
yes, because elo is inflationary

Not necessarily. It can be either inflationary or deflationary depending on circumstances. Also, it hasn't necessarily been long enough for very significant inflation or deflation to occur with respect to SC.
Darkmole
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
United States900 Posts
February 16 2008 22:25 GMT
#77
since jaedong lost to frozean shouldnt jaedong elo points go down now?
Plexa
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Aotearoa39261 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-02-16 23:19:18
February 16 2008 23:07 GMT
#78
it will, once someone adds the games to tlpd
+ Show Spoiler +
Jaedongs elo now is like 2279 - ouch
Administrator~ Spirit will set you free ~
disciple
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
9071 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-02-17 00:44:30
February 17 2008 00:35 GMT
#79
and as far as I know the ELO rating is not the best way to compare the achievements of players for a different years. There is smth like ELO-Inflation - the rating will grow up as far as the medium rating of the players is growing, i think the 2300 level will be easy to get in a year or two. I will give you an example with the chess...Bobby Fisher had in his most dominant years (1972) about 2750 ELO and his overall winning statistic was about 65-68%, today we have 2 players with 2800 with winning % of 55-56? Are they more dominant then Fisher? No, the average rating back in 1972 was far lower than today.
Administrator"I'm a big deal." - ixmike88
gravity
Profile Joined March 2004
Australia2041 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-02-17 01:05:23
February 17 2008 01:04 GMT
#80
On February 17 2008 09:35 disciple wrote:
and as far as I know the ELO rating is not the best way to compare the achievements of players for a different years. There is smth like ELO-Inflation - the rating will grow up as far as the medium rating of the players is growing, i think the 2300 level will be easy to get in a year or two. I will give you an example with the chess...Bobby Fisher had in his most dominant years (1972) about 2750 ELO and his overall winning statistic was about 65-68%, today we have 2 players with 2800 with winning % of 55-56? Are they more dominant then Fisher? No, the average rating back in 1972 was far lower than today.

Given that ELO is a measure of skill, not "dominance", this isn't necessarily wrong. The best players today are probably at least as good as Fischer in an absolute sense, and probably a bit better thanks to modern knowledge, while the average non-studying player isn't any better.

It's still possible there's inflation but I'm not sure it's ever been clearly proven.
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