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WARNING: Contains Spoilers |
51594 Posts
On March 21 2026 02:18 M3t4PhYzX wrote: Btw - What's the map order for the ro24, anyone knows?
Game 1 and 2 - Octagon Winners and Losers - Last remaining map between Attitude, Match Point and Jane Doe Final - Last remaining map between Knockout, Neo Sylphid and Pole Star
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On March 21 2026 17:10 GTR wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2026 02:18 M3t4PhYzX wrote: Btw - What's the map order for the ro24, anyone knows? Game 1 and 2 - Octagon Winners and Losers - Last remaining map between Attitude, Match Point and Jane Doe Final - Last remaining map between Knockout, Neo Sylphid and Pole Star Thank You very much.
Cheers
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Tier List:
S: Flash A: Soma, Snow, Bisu B: Rush, Light, Jaedong, hero, Soulkey, Best C: Barracks, Royal, Sharp, Queen, Larva, Rain D: sSak JyJ, Mind, Speed, Mong, Scan, Shine, huro E: Piano, Ample, Leta, Calm
S means favorite to win, A means potential to win and expected to make a good run, B means real potential to make a deep run but unlikely to win, C means a decent chance at Ro8 but probably not a deep run, D means real chances at Ro16 but probably not Ro8, E means Ro24 fodder.
Of these, I have the most uncertainty about Soulkey, Rain, Speed, and Shine. Soulkey has been doing poorly but we know he has it in him to be a championship level player. Rain, Speed, and Shine have too little data to have much of an idea of what's going on.
For groups, I've got: A: Sharp, Rain B: Soulkey, sSak C: hero, Larva D: Light, Royal E: Flash, Rush F: Jaedong, Best
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I think you got Bisu and Best inverted, especially considering how godly Best PvT is in this very Terran heavy tournament.
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On March 21 2026 22:35 zutt0 wrote: Tier List:
S: Flash A: Soma, Snow, Bisu B: Rush, Light, Jaedong, hero, Soulkey, Best C: Barracks, Royal, Sharp, Queen, Larva, Rain D: sSak JyJ, Mind, Speed, Mong, Scan, Shine, huro E: Piano, Ample, Leta, Calm
S means favorite to win, A means potential to win and expected to make a good run, B means real potential to make a deep run but unlikely to win, C means a decent chance at Ro8 but probably not a deep run, D means real chances at Ro16 but probably not Ro8, E means Ro24 fodder.
Of these, I have the most uncertainty about Soulkey, Rain, Speed, and Shine. Soulkey has been doing poorly but we know he has it in him to be a championship level player. Rain, Speed, and Shine have too little data to have much of an idea of what's going on.
For groups, I've got: A: Sharp, Rain B: Soulkey, sSak C: hero, Larva D: Light, Royal E: Flash, Rush F: Jaedong, Best
Speed plays more BW than the rest, but its 90% BGH, so I feel he is mechanically in peak form, but has too little practice on the new maps and the news metas.
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S [championship favorite]: Flash, Soma A [championship potential]: Royal, Sharp, Snow, Best, Rain, Zer0 B [dangerous in the right situation]: Light, Rush, Speed, Mind, Bisu, hero, JD, Soulkey C [round of 16 max]: BarrackS, Mong, JyJ, Scan, sSak, YSC, Shine, Calm, Larva F [pas de chance]: Piano, Leta, Ample
Calm and Mind are up a tier on their nominal levels due to their playstyles' being suited for tournament play. Maybe Shine deserves this bump too. I'm on the fence with him.
Though I have Rain in A tier, there is a good chance he doesn't make it out of round of 24 due to having three Terrans in his group in a best-of-1 context. Then again he could win the tournament with the right bracket and with the potential motivation of showing Flash who the true genius of Starcraft is. He might be the hardest player to assess.
JD has been posting insane proleague results but seems to have cooled off a bit lately and I am predicting a full regression to the mean on that account and on account of his tournament nerves the past few years.
On paper this should be a good season for Soulkey -- plenty of Terrans to beat up in late game, good number of macro maps to suit his mechanics-based style -- but his competitive fire seems to have dimmed below even Rain's level. Larva's mind is likely elsewhere too though he excels in similar situations as Soulkey, so I would expect their stocks to rise and fall together.
Similar reasons as Soulkey's and Larva's apply on paper to Sharp, who benefits more than anyone else save Flash and the top two Protosses from the proliferation of Terrans as his TvT is both extremely...sharp and difficult to prepare against due to his ability to play from behind/play from unusual gamestates. I like think of Sharp as a Zerg who happens to play Terran, which should suit him extremely well in this particular tournament.
Royal joins him as one of the Terran pretenders after Flash for the opposite reasons -- he pulls off technical plays better than anyone save Flash. He's almost a Protoss who happens to play Terran. Speed and BarrackS are similar in that sense but seem 1-2 levels down on Royal who looks rejuvenated.
Rush and Light have enjoyed relatively favorable metas in recent ASLs but haven't been able to cement themselves as dominant players. They are extremely solid in terms of fundamental play and mechanics, especially in SK Terran play vZ, but the meta has shifted towards technical play in vZ as well as somewhat in vT, and it's hard to see either of them being able to beat Snow, Best, and/or Rain in standard play, so I can't help but wonder if they missed their chance.
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On March 09 2026 12:48 Urth wrote: 15 Terran and 5 Protoss to start, lolwut
sounds about right... considering the number of Terran and Protoss champions of individual tournaments in history.
2026 and finally the foreigners who don't play Protoss are starting to realize which is the hardest race of all. Numbers dont lie...
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United States10397 Posts
Title Contenders: FlaSh, Soma, Snow Finalist Hopefuls: Light, Soulkey Bracket stage warriors: Best, Bisu, Rush, Jaedong Bracket darkhorses: BarrackS, ZerO, Sharp, herO, Mind, Rain Weak players with some chances: Mong, JyJ, sSak, Larva, huro, RoyaL, PianO, Speed Happy to be here: Scan, Ample, Shine, Calm, Leta
With lots of Terrans, Snow's best matchup puts him up at the top and forces Zergs to dodge them. Given we have 2 Protosses seeded already into the Ro16, I fully expect them to try to pull good TvTers into their groups to entice them to pick other Terrans. First pick with Soma also means there's always the chance players try to take him down and drag other Zergs into the group to allow them to cannibalize each other.
FlaSh is the best TvT in the history of Brood War so he's obviously going to the top, and in knockout stages, his preparation is second to none too.
Soma at the top naturally as defending champion. But less of a chance with all these Terrans and less Protoss to feast on.
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On March 22 2026 15:22 FlaShFTW wrote: Title Contenders: FlaSh, Soma, Snow Finalist Hopefuls: Light, Soulkey Bracket stage warriors: Best, Bisu, Rush, Jaedong Bracket darkhorses: BarrackS, ZerO, Sharp, herO, Mind, Rain Weak players with some chances: Mong, JyJ, sSak, Larva, huro, RoyaL, PianO, Speed Happy to be here: Scan, Ample, Shine, Calm, Leta
With lots of Terrans, Snow's best matchup puts him up at the top and forces Zergs to dodge them. Given we have 2 Protosses seeded already into the Ro16, I fully expect them to try to pull good TvTers into their groups to entice them to pick other Terrans. First pick with Soma also means there's always the chance players try to take him down and drag other Zergs into the group to allow them to cannibalize each other.
FlaSh is the best TvT in the history of Brood War so he's obviously going to the top, and in knockout stages, his preparation is second to none too.
Soma at the top naturally as defending champion. But less of a chance with all these Terrans and less Protoss to feast on.
Looks very accurate to me. I would only make a slight modification by putting SK in title contenders. With so many terran, it is not impossible that he stomps this ASL once more. He destroyed Light 4/1 and killed Flash 4/2 (was not streaming but Flash yes) not long ago, his mind game is beyond all current terran for sure. He needs to avoid zvz though coze he won't make it vs JD. Overall, Flash looks the most solid title contender regardless of the match up.
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Do we know the venue of the ASL finals yet? I will be in Korea at that time.
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On March 24 2026 08:56 Whiztard wrote: Do we know the venue of the ASL finals yet? I will be in Korea at that time. Why do you love watching TvT with BO7?
btw, if semi-finals matches are not 2 TvTs, it will be a pretty successful season.
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I really liked the grp A games (just got caught up before today's stream), hopefully today's games will deliver as well
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group B games makes me feel like SK got storm in a bottle with his 4 wins. As soon as Terrans actually show up and he can't fix *cough* his groups anymore, he chokes. Sad to see that a goat contender goes out that badly, lets see if he'll be back.
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How the hell did they manage to organize all the groups into mirror match overdose.
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On March 25 2026 14:17 a-game wrote: How the hell did they manage to organize all the groups into mirror match overdose.
Pretty sure they organize the players into 4 tiers and then randomly draw a player from each tier. Tier 1 is paired with tier 4 for the first match and tier 2 with tier 3 for the second.
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The JD, Queen, Best, Leta group is by far the most annoying one it seems. Just for Leta, both Z would have to prepare much much more due to his style. Everyone have to prepare 3 different matchups.
A decisive win in this group probably gives us the ASL winner
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On March 25 2026 21:12 doktordingerdonger wrote: The JD, Queen, Best, Leta group is by far the most annoying one it seems. Just for Leta, both Z would have to prepare much much more due to his style. Everyone have to prepare 3 different matchups.
A decisive win in this group probably gives us the ASL winner Nah, Leta's style is outdated and has been figured out. I have seen a lot of present day Leta games and I think his style matches up terribly in the modern meta.
Now watch me eat my words next week as he wins the group.
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On March 25 2026 21:55 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2026 21:12 doktordingerdonger wrote: The JD, Queen, Best, Leta group is by far the most annoying one it seems. Just for Leta, both Z would have to prepare much much more due to his style. Everyone have to prepare 3 different matchups.
A decisive win in this group probably gives us the ASL winner Nah, Leta's style is outdated and has been figured out. I have seen a lot of present day Leta games and I think his style matches up terribly in the modern meta. Now watch me eat my words next week as he wins the group.
I mean they all have to prepare more because of his outdated style, which is a matchup on its own. Leta could even cheese and go standard. Basically you have to prepare 4 matchups
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On March 25 2026 14:17 a-game wrote: How the hell did they manage to organize all the groups into mirror match overdose.
With just 2 P for those 24 spots it's impossible to avoid Z or T mirrors, esp 15 terrans means thare there are 2-3 expected each group :D
Kinda why - despite not hating T - I am hoping that both P and quite alot of Z will advance on top of the 7 T that are already qualified (as of yet). Would be nice to get a rather evenly split Ro16 /crosses fingers, personally non-mirrors are more fun to watch.
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You really don't need the "personally" added on because preferring non-mirrors is almost a universal opinion.
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