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FlaShFTW
United States10393 Posts
On April 29 2026 06:19 Miragee wrote: That has never been the case. He has always been a ZvP specialist. His tournament results showed he was a solid ZvZ player in a matchup that is notorious for being basically a coinflip. Maybe specialist is a stretch but it's reasonable to have said he looked to be favored coming into this matchup. Too bad he shat the bed. | ||
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Miragee
8660 Posts
On May 01 2026 00:59 FlaShFTW wrote: His tournament results showed he was a solid ZvZ player in a matchup that is notorious for being basically a coinflip. Maybe specialist is a stretch but it's reasonable to have said he looked to be favored coming into this matchup. Too bad he shat the bed. What tournament statistic if I may ask? ASL? Because that is very small sample size. And even there he has a record of 14-12, which I wouldn't exactly call a ZvZ specialist. The wiki has hero at 65.8 % ZvP, 51.9 % ZvT and 50.2 % ZvZ, which is about what I expected. Hero always seem solid at ZvZ but nothing more and a 50% winrate reflects that. Meanwhile soma sits at 63.7 % ZvP, 56.4 % ZvT and 61.5 % ZvZ. These numbers should not be take as gospel, either, as it's not even stated what games are included or what timeframe. It's still much more solid evidence than ASL statistics, which are basically useless because it's a low number of games split across many years in which form can vary drastically. Which brings us to the next point: Aside from statistics, we know that soma is in really good shape right now while hero has been slumping for a while. Anyways, maybe I'm missing some important source for recent tournament games beyond ASL. I would be interested seeing that. | ||
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seRapH
United States9807 Posts
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a-game
Canada5180 Posts
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iopq
United States1079 Posts
On May 01 2026 04:01 Miragee wrote: What tournament statistic if I may ask? ASL? Because that is very small sample size. And even there he has a record of 14-12, which I wouldn't exactly call a ZvZ specialist. The wiki has hero at 65.8 % ZvP, 51.9 % ZvT and 50.2 % ZvZ, which is about what I expected. Hero always seem solid at ZvZ but nothing more and a 50% winrate reflects that. Meanwhile soma sits at 63.7 % ZvP, 56.4 % ZvT and 61.5 % ZvZ. These numbers should not be take as gospel, either, as it's not even stated what games are included or what timeframe. It's still much more solid evidence than ASL statistics, which are basically useless because it's a low number of games split across many years in which form can vary drastically. Which brings us to the next point: Aside from statistics, we know that soma is in really good shape right now while hero has been slumping for a while. Anyways, maybe I'm missing some important source for recent tournament games beyond ASL. I would be interested seeing that. No, you're exactly right. People would rather look at either ASL results from ten years ago or literally only last ten games Does nobody understand you can run really bad in a sample of 10 games, especially in ZvZ? I bet on the player who has a higher lifetime ZvZ winrate | ||
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quaristice
115 Posts
On April 30 2026 15:16 GTR wrote: leta's run this season might be the biggest "no one had this on their bingo card" moment in asl history? i believed and still believe. imo he's always, always been chronically underrated. he's just a very high variance player which is a bad way to play in any kind of competitive game tournament or best-of-X match. but on a long enough timeline eventually it's possible for him to find some success at least once. while i can't say "i think he will win asl", i believe it's very possible and i wouldn't be surprised. he's not like players like tulbo, mong, organ, scan, or ample, where i would be quite surprised if they won an asl. i also think people constantly overlook his good plays, especially tastosis and so on, constantly just say things leta did are bad when they were good. like one of the games earlier in the tournament they were calling a move leta was making bad while he's up like 20 supply the whole game and then several minutes later they're like "wait, leta's up supply. when did that happen?". and it's been like that for years. a lot of viewers and players, have this kind of mindset about any player who is a high-variance player tbh. but at every individual match he's had, i thought he had a good chance to beat his opponent, and i think the same about his chances vs soma. i think the player he'll have the most trouble with that's remaining is light, but i do think he can beat light also. certainly an underdog against everyone remaining but i wouldn't ever count him out it's like a less extreme version of how shine has historically played | ||
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