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FlaShFTW
United States10488 Posts
On April 29 2026 06:19 Miragee wrote: That has never been the case. He has always been a ZvP specialist. His tournament results showed he was a solid ZvZ player in a matchup that is notorious for being basically a coinflip. Maybe specialist is a stretch but it's reasonable to have said he looked to be favored coming into this matchup. Too bad he shat the bed. | ||
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Miragee
8675 Posts
On May 01 2026 00:59 FlaShFTW wrote: His tournament results showed he was a solid ZvZ player in a matchup that is notorious for being basically a coinflip. Maybe specialist is a stretch but it's reasonable to have said he looked to be favored coming into this matchup. Too bad he shat the bed. What tournament statistic if I may ask? ASL? Because that is very small sample size. And even there he has a record of 14-12, which I wouldn't exactly call a ZvZ specialist. The wiki has hero at 65.8 % ZvP, 51.9 % ZvT and 50.2 % ZvZ, which is about what I expected. Hero always seem solid at ZvZ but nothing more and a 50% winrate reflects that. Meanwhile soma sits at 63.7 % ZvP, 56.4 % ZvT and 61.5 % ZvZ. These numbers should not be take as gospel, either, as it's not even stated what games are included or what timeframe. It's still much more solid evidence than ASL statistics, which are basically useless because it's a low number of games split across many years in which form can vary drastically. Which brings us to the next point: Aside from statistics, we know that soma is in really good shape right now while hero has been slumping for a while. Anyways, maybe I'm missing some important source for recent tournament games beyond ASL. I would be interested seeing that. | ||
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seRapH
United States9808 Posts
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a-game
Canada5214 Posts
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iopq
United States1113 Posts
On May 01 2026 04:01 Miragee wrote: What tournament statistic if I may ask? ASL? Because that is very small sample size. And even there he has a record of 14-12, which I wouldn't exactly call a ZvZ specialist. The wiki has hero at 65.8 % ZvP, 51.9 % ZvT and 50.2 % ZvZ, which is about what I expected. Hero always seem solid at ZvZ but nothing more and a 50% winrate reflects that. Meanwhile soma sits at 63.7 % ZvP, 56.4 % ZvT and 61.5 % ZvZ. These numbers should not be take as gospel, either, as it's not even stated what games are included or what timeframe. It's still much more solid evidence than ASL statistics, which are basically useless because it's a low number of games split across many years in which form can vary drastically. Which brings us to the next point: Aside from statistics, we know that soma is in really good shape right now while hero has been slumping for a while. Anyways, maybe I'm missing some important source for recent tournament games beyond ASL. I would be interested seeing that. No, you're exactly right. People would rather look at either ASL results from ten years ago or literally only last ten games Does nobody understand you can run really bad in a sample of 10 games, especially in ZvZ? I bet on the player who has a higher lifetime ZvZ winrate | ||
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quaristice
130 Posts
On April 30 2026 15:16 GTR wrote: leta's run this season might be the biggest "no one had this on their bingo card" moment in asl history? i believed and still believe. imo he's always, always been chronically underrated. he's just a very high variance player which is a bad way to play in any kind of competitive game tournament or best-of-X match. but on a long enough timeline eventually it's possible for him to find some success at least once. while i can't say "i think he will win asl", i believe it's very possible and i wouldn't be surprised. he's not like players like tulbo, mong, organ, scan, or ample, where i would be quite surprised if they won an asl. i also think people constantly overlook his good plays, especially tastosis and so on, constantly just say things leta did are bad when they were good. like one of the games earlier in the tournament they were calling a move leta was making bad while he's up like 20 supply the whole game and then several minutes later they're like "wait, leta's up supply. when did that happen?". and it's been like that for years. a lot of viewers and players, have this kind of mindset about any player who is a high-variance player tbh. but at every individual match he's had, i thought he had a good chance to beat his opponent, and i think the same about his chances vs soma. i think the player he'll have the most trouble with that's remaining is light, but i do think he can beat light also. certainly an underdog against everyone remaining but i wouldn't ever count him out it's like a less extreme version of how shine has historically played | ||
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seRapH
United States9808 Posts
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands1266 Posts
On May 03 2026 11:45 seRapH wrote: Leta picked a good time to make a miracle run, hardly any protoss made it deep and he's unlikely to end up facing a strong one (barring snow making it to finals). I am hopeful he can continue to show results but it's definitely uphill from here. While Tulbo usually doesnt crash and burn as hard as he did in Ro8, Leta did get the one opponent he was most likely to beat. Leta gets hailed for his wraith builds but his wraith builds have been far inferior to the current top TvZ players their wraith builds. SoMa should by any imaginable metric take this Ro4 somewhat onesidedly. BUT Leta can overperform and win. | ||
Peeano
Netherlands5630 Posts
Poll: What would be the more boring finals? (Vote): Leta vs Light | ||
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jinjin5000
United States1547 Posts
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Qikz
United Kingdom12041 Posts
On May 04 2026 17:06 Peeano wrote: Poll: What would be the more boring finals? (Vote): Leta vs Light Voted Soma vs Jaedong purely because no matter who wins the finals will probably be over in 40 minutes and most of the games will likely be decided by a coinflip at the start of the game. Leta vs FlaSh has the chance to be like this and I'd argue Leta at the minute is playing better than he used to and FlaSh is possibly playing worse due to his hands. | ||
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CHEONSOYUN
605 Posts
how did the neutral marine/medic both move towards the right side of the ramp? | ||
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Peeano
Netherlands5630 Posts
On May 05 2026 04:16 CHEONSOYUN wrote: jaedong vs light on jane doe: how did the neutral marine/medic both move towards the right side of the ramp? Come on. Give us a timed VOD if you're asking this kind of question. | ||
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Vasoline73
United States8067 Posts
On May 05 2026 06:40 Peeano wrote: Come on. Give us a timed VOD if you're asking this kind of question. I think it was off screen unfortunately. From the english saiyanSC cast on soop it's 49:19 https://vod.sooplive.com/player/194714181 EDIT: From pausing the VOD quickly, it looks like the drone was mineral glided over and then JD decided to glide it back... and that glitched them out of the way. Seems like an error on JDs part? | ||
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Crimson)S(hadow
Philippines721 Posts
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oBlade
United States6252 Posts
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a-game
Canada5214 Posts
Jane doe 65% TvZ Octagon 56% Neo sylphid 57% Pole star 56% Knockout 51% Attitude 52.2% Match point 55% | ||
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Miragee
8675 Posts
On May 14 2026 17:00 a-game wrote: Soma vs flash, statistically these maps are brutally imbalanced Jane doe 65% TvZ Octagon 56% Neo sylphid 57% Pole star 56% Knockout 51% Attitude 52.2% Match point 55% Well yeah, there is a reason for the race distribution this season... My heart is with soma but my head sees Flash as the clear favourite. Putting aside the T-favoured map pool, not only did he look extremely sharp in the previous matches, he also showed a preference for tight timing pushes. Imho, T timing pushes are the weakest in TvT, then TvP and the strongest in TvZ. It will be incredibly hard for soma to hold on on some of these maps and reach the late game. I think soma looked strong and definitely can take maps off Flash, especially with how smart he plays. But I still think Soulkey is better at defending early terran aggression and make scrappy play work. I hope we can get a good series. | ||
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byj
525 Posts
On May 05 2026 04:16 CHEONSOYUN wrote: how did the neutral marine/medic both move towards the right side of the ramp? On May 05 2026 09:01 Vasoline73 wrote: EDIT: From pausing the VOD quickly, it looks like the drone was mineral glided over and then JD decided to glide it back... and that glitched them out of the way. Seems like an error on JDs part? From looking at the minimap it appears to be Light glitching them, Artosis talks about it right after | ||
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hda
27 Posts
On May 14 2026 17:00 a-game wrote: Soma vs flash, statistically these maps are brutally imbalanced Jane doe 65% TvZ Octagon 56% Neo sylphid 57% Pole star 56% Knockout 51% Attitude 52.2% Match point 55% Surprised Soma picked Jane Doe first. Seems like asking for trouble. Soma loves his mutas, JD not having those exposed cliffs will pose a challenge. Once tanks control those ridges, breaking the contain will be tough | ||
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