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On February 23 2023 03:16 Nirli wrote:
If you are qualifying for a lot of tournaments but you aren't winning literally any of them, I would say that you are mid tier, yes. Again, if he is the best at anything, why hasn't he won anything? Is he the unluckiest man alive? Or maybe he just isn't champion material.
Trying to predict which players are “champion material” is pretty dicey.
Take Jangbi. He got to the finals of the MSL against Luxury, and he crashed and burned. He was so nervous that he misplaced his Forge in the first game. And then he slumped super hard. He was a perfect example of NOT champion material, but then he won back-to-back OSLs.
Light was a decent Terran for like 15 years but never came close to a major league final. But then something clicked and now he’s an ASL and KSL champion.
Calm probably didn’t look like champion material to many people when he won an MSL.
Unlikelier players than Snow have won before!
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On February 22 2023 02:19 Miragee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2023 17:17 IntoTheEmo wrote:On February 21 2023 16:18 Samsakzerg wrote:On February 21 2023 11:02 Peeano wrote:
Without a doubt JD >>> BishOp. Snow and Shuttle are the favorites in their group though, Snow by a large margin.
I'd give BishOp at most a 1% to advance. JD will come out 1st unless Snow plays his A game PVZ. JD has been steadily improvely, stacking up games after games in the pro league format with the top pros every night. His ZvT is still shaky, but even that is improving. His ZVZ ZVP are returning to top form. I hope you're right, JD has had many, many disappointing losses especially in his famous ZvZ ever since SC2 came out. I still remember him losing to HoGiL in Bacchus 2010 and then to Hydra in the MSL of the same year... In ASL he beat Flash only to lose to Action after, and of course in the last one he got eliminated by Shine. Whenever Tastosis mentions JvZ, I kinda shake my head. What you said sounds promising though! Are you talking about the 2010/2011 MSL which Hydra ended up winning? Because Hydra had an insane ZvZ at the time, I would argue the best ZvZ, mostly carried by his muta vs muta micro at the time. He had so many engagements with his first 6 mutas which he ended up winning... His ZvZ carried him to his MSL victory. I looked up his stats just now and he went 11-3 in ZvZ for that MSL with 2 of the 3 losses coming from JD. Yeah it felt disappointing because everyone expected JvZ but people forget Hydras insane ZvZ peak in this, for the sake of fairness fairly short, time frame. Jaedong really declined overall when SC2 came out and they started to split play time (tbf, so was everyone else to some extend). It was not just his ZvZ. It was just more noticable because it went from "JvZ" to "decent winrate with the usual ZvZ coinflip". And I would argue he has always been struggling with all 3 match ups, ZvT the most, since then, especially in the post-Kespa era. He just never came close again to become the force of nature he used be. If he is indeed improving again, that would make me very happy. One of my absolute favourite players ever.
Wow I nearly forgot I posted here, thanks for the throwback. That was the time I was most active on TL. And yeah, it almost seems like post KeSPA he's reluctant to use Defilers in TvZ, I fear the worst - that he feels like he isn't mechanical enough to use them well anymore.
I hope he does well too, he always places such high expectations for himself but has had to deal with tough loss after loss ever since the Flash era. The loss to Last in KSL was particularly heartbreaking for me.
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Proleague,KCM and UBE may not be a measure for ASL. It is like regular season and playoffs in the NBA.
Group A:
Mini // Action
Group B:
Bisu // Barracks
Group C:
soma // Best
Group D:
Snow // Shuttle (Sorry JD)
Group E:
Queen // Ruin
Group F:
Light // Stork
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I feel like the groups are all pretty even:
Tier 1s should all advance, even if some of them are a little inconsistent.
Tier 2s and 3s are competitive (maybe BarrackS is a little weaker than other 3s but, much as I love him, Sharp is probably the weakest 2).
Tier 4s other than Sacsri don't have much of a shot.
On February 23 2023 14:15 HOLYBATS wrote:
Proleague,KCM and UBE may not be a measure for ASL. It is like regular season and playoffs in the NBA.
I agree it can be misleading, otherwise Best would have won an ASL by now.
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On February 23 2023 09:59 Djabanete wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2023 03:16 Nirli wrote:
If you are qualifying for a lot of tournaments but you aren't winning literally any of them, I would say that you are mid tier, yes. Again, if he is the best at anything, why hasn't he won anything? Is he the unluckiest man alive? Or maybe he just isn't champion material. Trying to predict which players are “champion material” is pretty dicey. Take Jangbi. He got to the finals of the MSL against Luxury, and he crashed and burned. He was so nervous that he misplaced his Forge in the first game. And then he slumped super hard. He was a perfect example of NOT champion material, but then he won back-to-back OSLs. Light was a decent Terran for like 15 years but never came close to a major league final. But then something clicked and now he’s an ASL and KSL champion. Calm probably didn’t look like champion material to many people when he won an MSL. Unlikelier players than Snow have won before!
You know what I like about this whole situation? We will know soon enough.
I will go one step further. There is a greater chance for Snow to get eliminated in the groups than for him to win this ASL. I'm that confident in what I'm saying. He has a far greater chance to fumble than to achieve greatness, let's put it like that.
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On February 23 2023 15:08 QOGQOG wrote:I feel like the groups are all pretty even: Tier 1s should all advance, even if some of them are a little inconsistent. Tier 2s and 3s are competitive (maybe BarrackS is a little weaker than other 3s but, much as I love him, Sharp is probably the weakest 2). Tier 4s other than Sacsri don't have much of a shot. Show nested quote +On February 23 2023 14:15 HOLYBATS wrote:
Proleague,KCM and UBE may not be a measure for ASL. It is like regular season and playoffs in the NBA.
I agree it can be misleading, otherwise Best would have won an ASL by now.
Tier 4s, I wouldnt be surprised if Mind, Ruin and especially Hyun reach RO16.
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On February 23 2023 03:48 Nirli wrote:
I'm giving you very basic parameters, really. I wouldn't say my criteria are like no one else's.
As for Bisu, the man is basically a dinosaur yet still manages to survive and beat a lot of his peers. And he will always have the X factor and will always be able to pull off the insane plays. So while he is not as good as he once was, he still has a respectable amount of skill. Hope that makes sense.
Indeed, he hasn't won anything individually in a long time.
No it doesn't make sense because you don't apply the same parameters for each player (aka double standard). I get it that you have an opinion about Snow but the way you rationalize it is just wrong.
For example this is what you said:
If you are qualifying for a lot of tournaments but you aren't winning literally any of them, I would say that you are mid tier, yes.
This is literally the case for Bisu. Worse than Snow, he never reached an ASL final. So by your own rule, Bisu should even be lower-tier than Snow.
You also said:
Snow has always been a mid tier player, with some incidental good streaks, i.e. ASL final vs Flash.
But surprisingly, this is also the case for Mini. He was runner-up twice and won one. Those were his "good streaks". But if you average his finishing position over the 12 ASLs that he played, his average is 11th (I did the math myself). The same number for Snow over the exact 12 ASLs? 10th. So by this standard, Snow is slightly more consistent than Mini.
And finally you said this for Bisu:
And he will always have the X factor and will always be able to pull off the insane plays. So while he is not as good as he once was, he still has a respectable amount of skill.
Let's say you make an exception for Bisu to be your top-tier despite not winning anything.
First of all it's totally subjective and not quantifiable.
Secondly, the same can be said for Snow: the player with the best Reaver control in the history of BW, one of the only 3 players to ever beat Flash in a BO series (and the only Protoss at that). Remember that 1 base Reaver play vs Soulkey on Whiteout? Or last season when he was put into the same group with Zero Soulkey Soma only to come out on top? How is that not X factor, good an amount of skill or insane play for you?
I don't think he'll win this ASL either. His weakness is PvZ. If anyone notice, since his runner-up finish in ASL8, he's been knocked out by Zerg 6 seasons in a row (this is where the luck part comes into play). But not winning ASL and being mid-tier are totally different things. And the way you justified it is just wrong.
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I don't think anyone who has played this game would put Bisu and Snow in the same tier. We're talking about the best Protoss in the history of BW.
As for Mini, while everyone was getting destroyed by Z, he was actually being creative and trying new things.
Let's not downplay a single ASL win like that, please.
I don't know why you are mentioning Flash at all, who beat Snow 2-0 PvP as random, and "beat" is an euphemism in that case.
By your observation, if you are terrible at 33% of the game, what tier are you?
Give me your top 3 Protoss playesr of the last 20 years, so we can end this discussion.
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On February 23 2023 19:49 Nirli wrote:
I don't think anyone who has played this game would put Bisu and Snow in the same tier. We're talking about the best Protoss in the history of BW.
As for Mini, while everyone was getting destroyed by Z, he was actually being creative and trying new things.
Let's not downplay a single ASL win like that, please.
I don't know why you are mentioning Flash at all, who beat Snow 2-0 PvP as random, and "beat" is an euphemism in that case.
By your observation, if you are terrible at 33% of the game, what tier are you?
Give me your top 3 Protoss playesr of the last 20 years, so we can end this discussion.
You better explain your double standard and contradictory arguments first, as I already pointed out, before shifting the goal post to top 3 Protoss of the last 20 years (when has this discussion ever been about that?). Fyi you literally wrote "for the recent era" when you classified Bisu high tier and Snow mid tier.
You are the prime example of the people who form their opinion based off only a small sample size of games they watch each ASL.
By the way, "for the recent era", Bisu is "terrible" (actually I mean top 3, but using your own words, it becomes "terrible") in 66% of the game. What tier he is "for the recent era" again?
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On February 23 2023 19:16 TMNT wrote:
This is literally the case for Bisu. Worse than Snow, he never reached an ASL final. So by your own rule, Bisu should even be lower-tier than Snow.
He made it to the finals of the VANT Starleague, which Afreeca seems to count as ASL Season 0.
Also should be noted that he made it to the finals of one of the last Sonic Starleagues, which I'd say is the equivalent to ASL during the dark age of BW.
Anyway, dunno what you two are on about. Both of them are amazing players with the potential to win any ASL they enter.
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On February 23 2023 21:10 Lorch wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2023 19:16 TMNT wrote:
This is literally the case for Bisu. Worse than Snow, he never reached an ASL final. So by your own rule, Bisu should even be lower-tier than Snow.
He made it to the finals of the VANT Starleague, which Afreeca seems to count as ASL Season 0. Also should be noted that he made it to the finals of one of the last Sonic Starleagues, which I'd say is the equivalent to ASL during the dark age of BW. Anyway, dunno what you two are on about. Both of them are amazing players with the potential to win any ASL they enter.
Yeah I'm aware of that too.
He was on about Snow being "a mid-tier player and extremely overrated" because he doesn't win an ASL. Which is a ludicrous point.
I mean, if you reach two finals at any time in your career, that already means you have the potential to win it and you're a top tier player, regardless of how far you dip afterward.
The truth is, if we're talking about winning ASL as Protoss, both Snow and Bisu have come very close, but didn't have the luxury that Rain, Mini and Shuttle (I know lol) had, which is: not being denied by Flash.
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Jaehoon is the one and only P who should be considered Champion material with his excellent recall-executions! btw does anyone know if this guy is still playing BW nowadays?
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On a different note, I have to say 76 is a nice addition to the map pool this season. The map has given us so many good games so far. Due to its design, it's very hard to finish the game by an early rush or all in. Timings don't really exist here (or they haven't figured out yet). This leads to back and forth play and epic late games with diverse unit compositions.
It requires elite mechanics to control your bases and move your units around though. This map is not for low level players.
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Why still bo1? At this level, anyone can beat anyone on any given day in bo1.
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On February 23 2023 19:49 Nirli wrote:
I don't think anyone who has played this game would put Bisu and Snow in the same tier. We're talking about the best Protoss in the history of BW.
I haven’t logged back in in a decade, and I’ve just been lurking since about 2010, but I have to comment to say you should realize how subjective this is.
Clearly you favor Kespa days, or the days when Bisu was literally the only really good player left in the scene, over all recent achievements. Anyone who has watched BW in the last 5 years could make very strong arguments that Snow is much better than Bisu. I’m not going to say it’s definitive, since again, that is subjective, but in my opinion, Snow is miles ahead of Bisu.
Tiering players in general is silly, but in the context of an UPCOMING tournament, I think it would make more sense to favor the last 5 years over 15 years ago.
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On February 24 2023 00:14 EndingLife wrote:
Why still bo1? At this level, anyone can beat anyone on any given day in bo1.
yep this is my humongous gripe about Ro24
bo1 AND potential for funky maps mean upset potential galore no matter who is better on paper
I think I remember a really early tastosis ASL cast where they were saying bo1 is not that unfair in BW, but the BW pros themselves know how volatile it is and it sometimes even comes down to spawn positioning luck
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On February 24 2023 02:07 redknights wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2023 00:14 EndingLife wrote:
Why still bo1? At this level, anyone can beat anyone on any given day in bo1. yep this is my humongous gripe about Ro24 bo1 AND potential for funky maps mean upset potential galore no matter who is better on paper I think I remember a really early tastosis ASL cast where they were saying bo1 is not that unfair in BW, but the BW pros themselves know how volatile it is and it sometimes even comes down to spawn positioning luck
That's the point. This layer of the tournament is going to have the biggest mismatches, if it were all Bo3/5 it would be extremely boring. Having so much ride on a single game is what makes it exciting. And it's still a Bo3 in terms of whether or not a player actually advances.
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On February 24 2023 04:55 QOGQOG wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2023 02:07 redknights wrote:On February 24 2023 00:14 EndingLife wrote:
Why still bo1? At this level, anyone can beat anyone on any given day in bo1. yep this is my humongous gripe about Ro24 bo1 AND potential for funky maps mean upset potential galore no matter who is better on paper I think I remember a really early tastosis ASL cast where they were saying bo1 is not that unfair in BW, but the BW pros themselves know how volatile it is and it sometimes even comes down to spawn positioning luck That's the point. This layer of the tournament is going to have the biggest mismatches, if it were all Bo3/5 it would be extremely boring. Having so much ride on a single game is what makes it exciting. And it's still a Bo3 in terms of whether or not a player actually advances.
Except being bo1, the mismatches aren't really much of a mismatch like they would be in a bo3/5 and so on.
A bo3/5 would increase the chances of the better players advancing.
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On February 24 2023 05:38 EndingLife wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2023 04:55 QOGQOG wrote:On February 24 2023 02:07 redknights wrote:On February 24 2023 00:14 EndingLife wrote:
Why still bo1? At this level, anyone can beat anyone on any given day in bo1. yep this is my humongous gripe about Ro24 bo1 AND potential for funky maps mean upset potential galore no matter who is better on paper I think I remember a really early tastosis ASL cast where they were saying bo1 is not that unfair in BW, but the BW pros themselves know how volatile it is and it sometimes even comes down to spawn positioning luck That's the point. This layer of the tournament is going to have the biggest mismatches, if it were all Bo3/5 it would be extremely boring. Having so much ride on a single game is what makes it exciting. And it's still a Bo3 in terms of whether or not a player actually advances. Except being bo1, the mismatches aren't really much of a mismatch like they would be in a bo3/5 and so on. A bo3/5 would increase the chances of the better players advancing.
Yea I think my personal viewing preferences is for the better players to advance to the later rounds so we can have better quality games in Ro16 and beyond.
Not my preference for a lesser player to luck into the Ro16 just to get absolutely stomped
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The liquibets are open, pretty cool. i really like Snow and its sad to think so, but in my opinion JD will get out of this group as #1 and then in the final game Shuttle will win with a dt build (like he did in the final match against free in the group stage of ASL1). And (because i bet like a madman) my other bets are:
Mini/sSak
Bisu/Hyun
Best/Mind
Zero/Ruin
Light/Sacsri
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EPT
