The Ro24 has concluded we have ended up with what could be one of the best overall pool of 16 players in the ASL in a long time.

This is further proved by the fact that the group selection threw people off so much that we now have fans actively arguing between several groups of what could be the group of death.This week we look at one of them, but don't look down on Group B, there are bangers to be had all over, The ASL only heats up from here.

This is one hardest groups for anyone to predict, just look at whos in it. Defending Champion Mini, Two of the best terrans in the ASL, Light and Royal and Rain who has proved that time off hasn’t put a big enough dent in his level of play, boy this is tough, but I wouldn’t have it any other way if we get the kinds of games we’d expect from these players.


For our first opening match we got Mini vs Light, Mini is as we speak #1 in sponbbang right now(although the ranking seems to be bugged), currently sitting at a cool 59.5% winrate in PvT and against pretty much every other terran I’d say he’s the absolute favourite in the matchup so its downright amazing that he got picked up against the one terran who can not only match him but going by the numbers alone, but beat him on a clear advantage. Light is currently the real #1 in sponbbang(his elo is higher than Mini but seems to be unranked) boasting a Flash level of 68% winrate in TvP and the head to head between Light and Mini is 13-8 in favour of Light, Light is without a doubt Mini’s kryptonite online, can that translate offline? With odds like these I’d be a fool to not put my money on Light.

The other opening match features Royal vs Rain, Royal has the lowest winrate in the group in TvP/PvT at a 55% which is still very good just not good enough for this group while Rain boasts a big 65% winrate in PvT aside from that, these former SKT team house members have also been playing each other a lot over the last couple of months with 17 games between them and Rain standing tall at 10-7, as always with sponbbang stats, some of it does go out of the window once you sit in the booth, but I also believe that Rain has a sense of resilience in the booth that Royal hasn’t quite developed yet, a mental edge along with their current history puts Rain as the favourite in this match.

Now we get to the Bo3s

Rain vs Light is the most likely matchup here, these two have played each other the least in the match up with only 3 games since the start of the year which Light is up 2-1, given how good they are in the matchup and have winning records against every other top player of their opposing race this is the best possible TvP series we could possibly get in the Ro16 and honestly it could go either way.

Royal ends up with the short end of the stick at this point trying to go up against Mini even in a Bo1 would be one thing but in a Bo3 its an uphill battle to say the least.

Now, I’d actually say if we got Light vs Mini we might get to see Mini take his revenge, neither Light nor Mini have a history of being particularly good at handling the pressure of the final set. However if we got Mini vs Rain, its Mini’s game, Rain is still avoiding PvP and Mini has a near 75% winrate in PvP, It won’t even be close.

Light and Mini to Advance to the Ro8!

Featuring the runner up of last season Rush attempting to run it back and finish the job this time, the smooth criminal Action, former ASL champion Shuttle(some people actually forget this) and from shocked to shocker ggaemo.




Wonder what it is ggaemo has been eating that's gotten him to go from a write-off(in my opinion, BisuDagger got him right) in the Ro24 to being in the Ro16 from beating Snow twice to almost taking the winner's game off Royal if it weren't for his handling of drops he might have advanced first in his group, now he's going up against an even more formidable opponent in TvZ in the form of Rush, needless to say while ggaemo has impressed, I don't see him taking a game of Rush


Shuttle’s playstyle in PvZ in playing that longer game pretty much gives the edge to a player like Action who also tends to do better as the games go longer, it also really helps that Action right now sits at a 62% winrate in ZvP while Shuttle is on a 41% winrate in PvZ with a losing record against every top zerg, including Action who is up in games against him 8-5 since the start of the year, Action should be the one advancing to the winner’s game.


For the winner’s game I bring to you just how big one side’s advantage could be.

• Rush has a TvZ winrate of 60% with a winning record against almost every top zerg while Action only has a 48% winrate with most of his wins being against mid level terrans.
  
• Rush and Action have played 17 games against each other since the start of the year, Rush is up 12- 5, thats a personal winrate of 70.6% over Action.

Its also worth noting that I’d give the mental edge to Rush who now repeatedly breaks through the Ro16 while Action seems to not usually make it past this stage and a lot of the times its due to nerves affecting his play, Rush should be advancing first in the group without dropping a set.

Its hard to say how the losers’ game will go, but for one thing, it being a Bo3 does favour the more active Shuttle who already has a winning record against ggaemo right now, Shuttle should take the Bo3 but I wouldn’t be surprised if ggaemo took a set.

The most likely final game here is Action vs Shuttle again, I don’t know how much better Shuttle would fare against Action in a Bo3 but being in the final game doesn’t tend to favour Action’s mental edge, If Shuttle can use that to throw Action off by digging into his older persona of throwing in some odd strats, I’d say Shuttle is in a better position this time around than the opening game, but if Shuttle doesn’t adapt, Action wins.

Rush and Action Advance to the Ro8!

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Writers: BLinD-RawR
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR