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[KSL3] Ro16 Week 1 Preview - The Rundown

Forum Index > BW General
15 CommentsPost a Reply

[KSL3] Ro16 Week 1 Preview - The Rundown

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
Graphics byv1
April 18th, 2019 03:27 GMT
logo


The third Korean Starcraft League is poised to go underway April 18th. The four finalists from Season 2, (P)Rain, (T)Last, (Z)Soulkey, and (T)Sharp, are seeded into the round of 16. These players are racking up frequent flyer miles in the bracket stage as tournament after tournament they lay waste to their group stage opponents.

While staple players, maps, and the well-loved casters Artosis and Tasteless return, Season 3 has a lot of new to offer. Adding to the line-up of English casters NoRegret, RAPiD and Cadenzie join on in a supporting role. (T)ForGG, (P)Stork, (Z)Jaedong, and (Z)Shine also join the player line-up as representatives of the veteran guard. And finally, this seasons map pool adds intrigue with the addition of Colosseum II, Medusa, Eddy, and Overwatch. This season includes it’s very own group of death that could be talked about for seasons to come. Korean Starcraft League Season 3 has it all this time around and looks to be the best one yet in its short legacy.

Table of contents

  • Intro
  •  
  • Group A And B Overview
  • Group C And D Overview
  • Group A Week 1 Preview
  • Group B Week 1 Preview
  •  
  • Liquipedia

Group A Recap

A Tight Group

Group A features 4 players who have fallen short at the doorstop of success. Just flipping between the post-kespa accomplishment pages between (T)Sharp, (Z)ZerO, and (P)Best, if their names were hidden it would be impossible to tell their resumes apart. (Z)Modesty, does stand alone in a short list of accomplishments, but what he lacks in number he gains with a 2nd and 1st place finish in two of his tournaments. But in the era of ASL+KSL, these players are found wanting.

Sharp comes off the last KSL hungry. He is quite possible the most dangerous opponent to face at this stage of the tournament. Meanwhile, Best has proven stats dating back as far as 2006 that time and again he can and will lose to weaker players. BeSt might be the most difficult player to bet on in the history of StarCraft. Zero is finally back and he was quite good when he left for the military. To say his skill is beyond BeSt's at this time would be a hard sell, but there is plenty of opportunity in this group for him to advance.

Finally, Modesty sits at the bottom as the weakest player in this group. His notoriety comes from an amazing ZvT streak back in 2013. If Modesty does make a deep run, it will have to look like the Bag of Builds in order for him to get there.
This is a group where stats usually is the best metric to rely on. Here’s how the players rank by stats over the past two years. Best is in first with a 62% vZ and 58% winrate vZ. Zero gets stats from 2015 where is was 83% vP, 60% vZ, and 50% vT. Sharp places third and is 4-12 (25%) versus Zerg players and over 60% winrate vP. Modesty is last with 33% vT and not enough results for his other matchups. Stats alone this group is an extremely tough call that could come down to who is having a better day, but given the momentum metric, the most shocking result would be one without Sharp advancing.

Group B Recap

Snow Chance to Shine

Group B at a glance is dismissible. But that’s what (P)Snow, (Z)Where, (T)Ample, and (Z)Shine are counting on. At one point in each of their careers following 2010, these players peaked. For a short moment, they were the best.

Ample started his march to the top in 2011. The first few Sonic Starleagues had transpired and the tournament was becoming legitimized. Ample seized this moment and become one of the top players by placing 2nd in the 4th SSL. The following year he maintained top 4 form and then drifted to the back of the pack.

Shine and Snow followed by peaking in the early ASL/KSL era and even reaching finals. Shine keeps himself busy as an observer and perhaps has gained a bit of game wisdom from this experience. Meanwhile, Snow is swimming upstream to find his form as a top 2 protoss player.

Finally, we get the Where. Where has been group stage fodder for years, but is looking more and more like he is nearing his own personal peak, just like his fellow groupmates have experienced in the past. Silently, Where is the dark horse of this tournament. His round of 8 finishes have given him stage experience and it is now his moment to make a run for the finals.

On paper this group doesn’t have one match up that should lead to a player stomping another. The one thing that can be counted on, is that in the game of Starcraft experience always wins over luck. Snow and Shine are going to lean on that hard as they fight to keep the rookies from advancing.

Group A Recap

All I Want Is

If one could describe the players in this group each of them have something very obvious to prove.

“I want to keep my cool” - (P)Mini has had a good start to the year making the ASL finals but his road was pretty bumpy with him being literally tilted in body against his semifinals and finals opponents at several point when he thought he lost, Mini will look to correct his mistakes or alternatively and probably one the will be going for, not get in that kind of situation at all by playing better, after all, you won’t tilt if you win.

“I want to win a series” - (Z)Action’s run so far in all the tournaments hes played has shown that he can take Bo1s and high pressure groups( after all his ASL6 Ro16 was in a group against Jaedong, Flash and Light) but he hasn’t been able to take series off his opponents so far in either ASL or KSL, I’m sure he’ll be looking to push a win against his opponents this group, but with his opening game against mini, the cards are stacked against him for his first week.

“I want to break out” - (T)ForGG makes his first offline appearance in a individual BW tournament since the KeSPA era, he has been active in team tournaments and on sponmatches and this is definitely a group people will use to gauge his current standing in the scene, terran representation has always been weak in tournaments, its time to see if ForGG still has what it takes to push forward.

“I want to be the champion again” - Defending champion (Z)Soulkey was unceremoniously drop kicked out of the running in ASL7 is now back on “home turf” looking to once again run the gauntlet of the KSL Ro16 into another championship, as far as the group goes Mini is his toughest opponent and if there ever were a chance to avoid running into him I’d say it would be smooth sailing, if not, well I’d still put Soulkey on top of the group.


Group B Recap

Generation Me

This group has something for everyone, LeeBang Rok for the older fans, Last vs Rain after their already barn burner of a match in their ASL7 Ro4 Encounter and the matches that follow for all players, everyone is looking forward to this group and its not just star power thats keeping this together.

“The Beach when it Rains” - (P)Rain’s KSL story thus far has been the same, hes plays solid and just rolls his way through the Ro16 then Ro8 and all the while being portrayed as favorite throughout the season and reaches the Ro4 against opponents by all accounts he was the favourite, and he just doesn’t get past it, it’ll be interesting to see if he faces off against Jaedong in the group, its time to see if he can bring out the Sun this season.

“Bang! Its me, its me, its...” - (P)Stork makes a surprising entry into the KSL after being absent from the tournament scene since missing out on the last season of KSL and ASL7, most assumed that stork would do stork things like bring a child into the world and generally be a streamer/entertainer while playing the occasional sponmatches, it’ll be interesting to see his run this season but so far I’m inclined to believe it might end in this group.

“Its not over! Not yet!” - We’re all rooting for (Z)Jaedong(well I don’t really speak for everyone, if you don’t then feel free to not, but do share why) after choosing to relinquish his KSL2 seed and not participating in ASL7 we all assumed that he would choose to just be a streamer and do the occasional showmatch until he gets his enlistment date to do his mandatory service, but lo and behold he has given us another shot for gold and I would like to say his chances are very slim this time around after not being as serious in practice as last time, but this is still Jaedong, the man can and has on many occasions just willed himself to victory. Win or Lose all I can say about Jaedong’s run as a long time fan, it won’t be a surprise either way.

“These hands were made for Winning” - (T)Last right now is the strongest player in the tournament, having come off his victory in ASL7 and being the only guy to win both a KSL and an ASL, one could say that with his current state of wrists it would be completely fine for him to just slip away and nobody would judge him for it, hell we all would like to see him take a break to get his wrists some good rest, but I can also expect that with a group like this his competitive fire is growing and he would absolutely love to be a back to back Dual Champion to really close off his legacy.


Group D Preview

ZerO Reborn

BeSt vs ZerO

He's back! Having left the scene in the first half of 2017 to complete his mandatory service in the Korean army, ZerO was officially discharged in January 2019. And, quite surprisingly, it doesn’t seem he’s changed much skill-wise. Less than two months after returning to professional StarCraft, ZerO has already managed to qualify for one of the two premier individual leagues in the Mecca of esports. And although he hasn’t quite managed to snatch a StarLeague class championship just yet, he’s come pretty close in the past. With a second place finish in the 2011 ABC Mart MSL being his best result to date, the ex-Woongjin Stars Zerg’s initial return to the Brood War scene at the turn of the AfreecaTV Era after his short stint as an SC2 professional saw him get to the final four of two premier events.

It has been pointed out our reliance on past tournament results as a measure of a player’s current form is flawed and we should in fact incorporate sponsored matches and ladder progress into our analysis. Some of you will be pleased to hear ZerO has in fact been one of the most active players in terms of sponmatches in April. Coming in at #12 in the ELO ranking, ZerO is sitting at a comfortable 63.3% win ratio in ZvP, with Rain and Snow being the only Protoss players with a positive mapscore against the Zerg. ZerO’s consistency in the matchup is further vouched for by a 64.2% win ratio when considering all sponsored games since his return, including a solid 11:4 record against BeSt, whom he’ll be facing in the inaugural match of this season of the KSL. Seeing as the ZvP metagame hasn’t fluctuated as much in recent times, I’d actually go as far as to say he’s already got a leg up on BeSt, whose PvZ in the past three months has been rather unreliable. A 4:10 mapscore in sponmatches in April doesn’t bode well for the former SKT Protoss.

Prediction:

(P)BeSt 1:3 (Z)ZerO


Sharp vs Modesty

Last’s rise to prominence and God Young Ho’s impending departure for the Korean military have been the talk of the town for Terran enthusiasts for quite some time now. Given the rich heritage of the Terran line in StarCraft, following in the footsteps of the likes of BoxeR, NaDa, iloveoov, or Fantasy is no easy task. And that might be why Sharp’s achievements have seemingly gone under the radar. Sure, he hasn’t made as big a splash as the aforementioned legends. But he’s always there. And it feels like he’s always been there. And that’s where Sharp’s brilliance lies. Not in winning championships, but in winning just the right amount to be able to keep competing. And then he also placed second in the last season of the KSL, so there’s that.

To be completely frank, I’d say Modesty qualifying for the KSL is a bit of an upset. And it’s happened for the second time in a row. With just 16 spots to go around, a semi-active former Proleague player with just a single memorable individual league performance making it into the competition completely changes my perception of the tournament. I can’t help but feel it somehow undermines its status as a StarLeague. And although it might seem harsh, I admire any and all progamers, who managed to make a living in the draconic environment of the KeSPA Era. Nonetheless, having a negative record in all of OSL, MSL, and SPL combined doesn’t feel all too glorious. Modesty doesn’t really stream, nor does he participate in sponmatches or any online cups for that matter. Maybe he’d have better odds if this were the ASL. But having to win two Bo5’s against the creme of the crop, with maps that don’t get much more standard than the ones in the pool? Fat chance.

Prediction:

(T)Sharp 3:0 (Z)Modesty

Group E Preview

Come Snow, Come Shine


They say second place is the first loser and in a competitive game like StarCraft such attitude is to be expected. Still, having almost reached the summit speaks volumes when competition is this stiff, so this week in group B it’s going to be about big game experience when ASL finalists Snow and Shine face relative newcomers Where and Ample, respectively.


In the (new) era of Flash being the man to beat Snow managed to make a name for himself very quickly on the back of his tremendous PvT prowess as he defeated The Ultimate Weapon in ASL season 5, eventually reaching the finals to lose to Rain. Snow is a curious player: he has exquisite small-scale unit control; he’s relatively “slow” for a progamer with an apm between 250 and 300; what he lacks in macro mechanics he makes up in the probably the world’s best shuttle/reaver micro - and he has amazing work ethic, playing literally hundreds of games each month. He has always been known for his amazing TvP, solid PvP and has historically struggled against stronger Zerg opponents. As of late, however, he seems to have been trying to correct his PvZ deficiencies, incorporating his trademark reaver/shuttle style in the matchup alongside more standard builds. He’s played a whopping 132 sponsored games in the matchup since March, which is a little less that two-thirds of his total games played - a testament to his efforts; thus he’s managed to attain a 55.3% winrate vs Zerg, although he still struggles against the top players.

Where, for his part, had made a name for himself more as a group-stage punching bag than a giant slayer - until KSL2, that is. In his group stage decider match he distinctively outclassed a stale and rigid Light, otherwise considered a TvZ specialist, earning himself a Ro8 spot. In the elimination phase he got thrashed 3:0 by then-defending champion Last, but had a decent showing and definitely looked like he had improved. Still, he’s yet to repeat even reaching the playoffs and is behind his Protoss opponent in both big stage experience and online statistics in the matchup (46.7% since March in only 30 games, including a 0:3 record against Snow himself). Certainly, he’s a cunning player and could be developing specialized builds to use against his opponent, but the best-of-five format is suboptimal for this approach - especially without a preset map order and with a big map pool. We could expect all kinds of mind games and aggressive speedling, mutalisk and drop plays from him to try and overcome the difference in experience with Snow as he did versus Light. With all that being said, Where looks like the underdog.

Prediction: (P)Snow 3:0 (Z)Where

Shine is another ASL finalist, fairly well known both as a player and observer; he’s gained fame as the Bag of Builds for being, well, a bag of builds and as Bisukiller for being The Revolutionist’s nemesis. Even though he never managed to even come close to repeat his ASL3 experience, Shine is no pushover. He’s the smart, devious type of player who would have a special funky build prepared for every map he’s going to play but never too proud to do the cheesiest thing a cheeser can do - play standard. His fundamentals are also quite respectable, although not up there with the very best of Zergs, even though he sometimes does look lost in a macro game. Shine also has some very healthy sponmatch numbers, winning 60.3% of his games vs Terran, which account for almost 70% of his total games. As per usual with the Bag of Builds, he comes prepared and has gained considerable understanding of the game from the years of both playing and observing professional StarCraft.

His opponent this time around is KSL debutant Ample. Although he’s had his share of big games in the Sonic Starleague era, those were online tournaments. Offline events are a completely different beast and his recent offline experience is limited to appearances in ASL seasons 2 and 4, where he was eliminated in the Ro24. Outside tournaments, Ample has been playing relatively steadily for the past few months, averaging about 80 spongames per month and his recent online winrate versus Zerg isn’t that terrible on first glance either - 64.3% in 56 games since March. However, a closer look reveals losing records against the likes of Hyuk (1:2) and ggaemo (2:4); he is also yet to take a game off Soulkey or Zero, for example. The Terran player is the definite underdog as he has neither big stage experience nor numbers to back him up.

Prediction: (Z)Shine 3:0 (T)Ample



Writers: BisuDagger, Ziggy, TardadAiel, BLinD-RawR
Graphics: v1
Editors:BLinD-RawR

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TL+ Member
siegetank7
Profile Joined April 2019
23 Posts
April 18 2019 04:46 GMT
#2
nice preview! looking forward to this mornings matchup of best vs zero, promises to be a even-keel competitive pvz that could go the distance for sure. I sort of expect shine to walk all over ample too but lets not get ahead of reality because shine has been known to fail when its most important and ample may be motivated to surprise the world.
MrMischelito
Profile Joined February 2014
347 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-18 06:02:17
April 18 2019 06:00 GMT
#3
i didn't really enjoy rapids casts in sc2. do you think he does better in bw?
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19207 Posts
April 18 2019 09:56 GMT
#4
On April 18 2019 15:00 MrMischelito wrote:
i didn't really enjoy rapids casts in sc2. do you think he does better in bw?

Rapid has invested a ton into Brood War and has definitely found passion for it. Even if you dont sync well with his style of casting, you can enjoy him for his love of the game.
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
v1
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
Estonia782 Posts
April 18 2019 23:01 GMT
#5
<3 Rapid
Graphics
Frudgey
Profile Joined September 2012
Canada3367 Posts
April 21 2019 05:22 GMT
#6
While I've always liked Rapid before, I really feel like lately he's become a lot more knowledgeable in his Brood War casts which is awesome. There's a lot more I want to say about Rapid, but in short I think he's really improved and I look forward to seeing cast (and grow as a caster) in the future.

Disclaimer: I know like nothing about Brood War, so this is merely my interpretation.
It is better to die for The Emperor than live for yourself.
bovienchien
Profile Joined March 2014
Vietnam1152 Posts
April 21 2019 05:48 GMT
#7
Prediction:
(P)BeSt 1:3 (Z)ZerO
(T)Sharp 3:0 (Z)Modesty
(P)Snow 3:0 (Z)Where
(Z)Shine 3:0 (T)Ample
LUL
https://www.facebook.com/StarcraftRemasteredVN/
Akio
Profile Blog Joined January 2019
Finland1838 Posts
April 21 2019 17:28 GMT
#8
I definitely like the KSL system more than ASL in a sense that it's not best of 1 in group stages
Mine gas, build tanks.
HaruHaru
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States988 Posts
April 21 2019 17:50 GMT
#9
Is there a calendar where I can see when these games are to take place?
Long live BroodWar!
v1
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
Estonia782 Posts
April 21 2019 20:49 GMT
#10
On April 22 2019 02:50 HaruHaru wrote:
Is there a calendar where I can see when these games are to take place?


https://tl.net/calendar/?view=week&year=2019&month=04&day=21&team=&league=&game=2
Graphics
Proko
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1022 Posts
April 22 2019 16:54 GMT
#11
Would love to see JD perform well in the upcoming days. ASL also turned me into a Mini fan. Hoping for good result for them both.

Sharp to leave group A in spot 1 #braveprediction
Caster duos should compliment each others' strengths. "You look very handsome today, Tasteless."
L_Master
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8017 Posts
April 22 2019 18:10 GMT
#12
On April 18 2019 15:00 MrMischelito wrote:
i didn't really enjoy rapids casts in sc2. do you think he does better in bw?


His casting style, energy, and enunciation are, in my opinion, very good. He tends toward the goofy jokes/"punny" side on a regular basis. Some love it, some don't. He does an EXCELLENT job with his casting research, and usually comes quite prepared, e.g. with his scene knowledge, match ups, statistics, etc.

His biggest weakness is his game knowledge. It's has certainly improved, as one would expect from watching and casting alot, but I have the impression he does not play very often and we all know how much faster you learn when you play.

The extent to which you like/dislike his casting will depend on how those various factors weigh for you. If you're more into casters who prepare well and have good energy you'll like Rapid quite a bit. If you're a stickler for insight or expect consistent, high level analysis or few mistakes, he might frustrate you.
EffOrt and Soulkey Hwaiting!
avanhokie
Profile Joined May 2017
50 Posts
April 22 2019 22:52 GMT
#13
Are we gonna talk about how literally every prediction was almost as wrong as it could be?
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES49885 Posts
April 23 2019 04:20 GMT
#14
On April 23 2019 07:52 avanhokie wrote:
Are we gonna talk about how literally every prediction was almost as wrong as it could be?

I know why nobody is going to.

[image loading]
[image loading]
[image loading]
[image loading]
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
RAPiDCasting
Profile Joined July 2009
Korea (South)594 Posts
April 23 2019 10:35 GMT
#15
On April 23 2019 13:20 BLinD-RawR wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2019 07:52 avanhokie wrote:
Are we gonna talk about how literally every prediction was almost as wrong as it could be?

I know why nobody is going to.

[image loading]
[image loading]
[image loading]
[image loading]



Yup, those were pretty much my thoughts going into it. Shaping up to be a season of surprises.
The faster caster. @RAPiDCasting
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19207 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-23 11:56:14
April 23 2019 11:54 GMT
#16
On April 23 2019 19:35 RAPiDCasting wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2019 13:20 BLinD-RawR wrote:
On April 23 2019 07:52 avanhokie wrote:
Are we gonna talk about how literally every prediction was almost as wrong as it could be?

I know why nobody is going to.

[image loading]
[image loading]
[image loading]
[image loading]



Yup, those were pretty much my thoughts going into it. Shaping up to be a season of surprises.

Hey Rapid, this should help you with research on Modesty. He was a monster back in 2014 against Terran players. What defined him was his hive+guardian play. That's why he won 2014 41 Starleague Season 1 and placed 2nd in 2014 2nd LoveTV BJ Starleague. Even if Terran's know that this is coming, Modesty still finds a way to win with it. It wasn't until 2015 that PianO shut down his streak.

https://tl.net/tlpd/details.php?section=sospa&type=players&id=556&part=games&vs=T&league=any&map=any&from_year=2013&from_month=1&from_day=1&to_year=2014&to_month=6&to_day=20&action=Update

Two defining games:
Modesty vs PianO:

This vod will look exactly like game 1 versus Sharp except he executes his build perfectly. It's disgusting how he is able to pressure the natural so well and also get to hive at the fastest time possible.

Modesty vs sSak:

At this time, sSak was considered a top Terran. Modesty shows his ability withstand tons of pressure from an aggressive Terran player.


I watched and casted a ton during the Sonic Era. If you ever need recommendations on games to watch or information on players feel free to send me a pm or post in general BW chat.
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
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