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[ASL7] Ro16 Preview Pt. 1 - The Group of Death

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[ASL7] Ro16 Preview Pt. 1 - The Group of Death

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
February 9th, 2019 14:16 GMT
logo
We hope everyone had a good Lunar New Year, but we're back with even more Brood War action in the ASL! If you missed the last two groups of the Ro24, Frudgey has got you covered again with more highlights!




This week sports both the best and worst groups of the Ro16. Group B is no doubt the group of death in this tournament whereas Group A champions two excellent players and two mediocre players. However, as much as we like to make predictions and stand by them, let's remember that this tournament hasn't quite gone the way we expected thus far.

Maps like Whiteout and Block Chain have severely thrown results one way or another due to specialized strategies and racial imbalances. That said, Block Chain as the decider match in the Ro16 is especially difficult for many players who would have rather just sit that map out. Expect some surprises, some upsets, and maybe a few unexpected champions. If the ASL Season 7 has shown us anything so far, it's that anything can happen!

Group A is set to start in !

Table of Contents

  • Intro
  •  
  • Group A Preview
  • Group B Preview
  •  
  • (Wiki)Liquipedia
Group A Preview

Two Good, Two Bad

Group A has a decisive split in the middle: effort and Horang2, our tournament powerhouses, and GuemChi and PianO, returning to the offline stage for the first time in years. To make matters worse, the starting map Whiteout erases what glimmers of hope remain for our two underdogs.


(Z)EffOrt vs (P)GuemChi on Whiteout

GuemChi's chances of entering the Ro8 is a long way off. First up is last season’s finalist, effort. He is the only Zerg to beat Flash in a Bo5 in the last 7 years not only once, but twice. Ready to defend his title, effort is bound to hit the ground running on the most Zerg favored map, Whiteout. Clocking in at an astounding 59% win rate for Zergs in ZvP, Effort couldn't ask for a better map to start off his ASL run. Considering this is also GuemChi's worst matchup, he'll need more than a miracle to save himself.

Noting effort's penchant for mechanically intensive tactical play, Whiteout is a gold mine. The vision-blocked forests are Zerg territory designed to be littered with lurkers, spotting overlords, and clouds of scourge to snipe observers. They also act as cover for potential ambushes, backstabs, and overlord drops. Needless to say, effort will have a field day putting out whatever in his arsenal that he pleases.

GuemChi's rusted form hurts his chances. His mediocre corsair control and DT harass is too unrefined to pierce effort's solid game sense and composure. Fortunately for GuemChi, the major caveat to effort's performance is his competitive personality, or lack thereof. He's been known to avoid practicing and play team and UMS games. Needless to say, this is not finals form effort. Whether he's motivated to put in much effort or replicate his finals run of the previous season is also subject to his whims. At any rate, effort is likely to win...but don't count GuemChi out.


(P)Horang2 vs (T)PianO on Whiteout

If people thought Whiteout was imbalanced for Protoss, Terran has to hang on for dear life. In a parallel story to effort vs GuemChi, returning ex-pro PianO must overcome the map's staggeringly low 40% TvP win rate and fierce opponent, Horang2.

Fierce isn't exactly the first word that comes to mind, but offline Horang2 has shown a different track record. While he's a lower tier ex-pro, he understands his strengths and standing to his opponent. He prepares impressively despite bland mechanics and pulls through wins with sound strategy and decision making. That's how he almost defeated Last 2-3 in the KSL and dashed past Rush and Nada in the Ro24.

For PianO, just like GuemChi, he's playing in his worst matchup on the worst map possible. That said, PianO has been on a competitive streak in the past month. Coming out of a peaceful retirement of team games, Piano has been playing sponsored games again. His efforts thus far have placed him at #10. However, most of those wins are from Zergs and amateur Protosses. How he'll fare against a mid-tier toss like Horang2 is less clear. Still, he is very much motivated and prepared to win.

For this match, I expect some ambitious dropship or hyper-aggressive token play by PianO. While a premature adaptation to Whiteout, that may be PianO's only option, lest he take a stroll through the forests of perpetual scans. Still, PianO's underdog momentum from the Ro24 will likely stop short at Horang2.


Winners Match: (P)Horang2 vs (Z)EffOrt on Neo Sylphid

PvZ is known the matchup kryptonite for many Protosses, but Horang2 actually takes special exception for being absolutely god awful at it. Even his usual preparation won't save him from the deep abyss of ZvP. effort will take the win, supported by the plentiful and sprawling bases of Neo Sylphid. Expect another flash-in-the-pan 2-base heavy play as seen vs Larva that quickly transitions into a loss.


Losers Match: (P)GuemChi vs (T)PianO on Neo Sylphid

In an underdog vs underdog match, GuemChi vs PianO will be our most desperately fought and tense match of Group A. I suspect either player will start off the game with a bang. A play in line with fast DT, reaver, center gate, or (less likely) PianO going 2-factory. GuemChi's signature bulldog style could also be showcased here.

Either way, I give GuemChi the slight upper hand. PianO showed a blaring weakness in his game vs Action after nearly throwing the game away to stop lurkers, and against an even-keel player like GuemChi, that won't cut it. PianO's luck, charm, and spirit will be running out in his second step in the Ro16.


Final Match: (P)GuemChi vs (P)Horang2 on Block Chain

In the final match, GuemChi is up against the Tigertoss himself. In Horang2's progaming days, he played PvP in nearly half of all of his games as a PvP sniper in Proleague. GuemChi’s lack of understanding, game sense, and composure make him easy prey. The map Block Chain will make Horang2's solid early game, positioning, and reaver harass all the more threatening. By the end of the match, expect GuemChi’s sprint to the Ro8 to be cut short by a veritable mauling from Horang2.


Predictions:
effort > GuemChi // Whiteout
Horang2 > PianO // Whiteout
effort > Horang2 // Neo Sylphid
GuemChi > PianO // Neo Sylphid
Horang2 > GuemChi // Block Chain

(Z)EffOrt and (P)Horang2 advance to the Ro8!


Group B Preview

Redemption, Glory, Comeback, and the Underdog

Group B is a whirling storm of three of the league's most dangerous players: Soulkey, Last, and Snow. In its midst, tumbleweed Calm, must tumble out of harm’s way and into second place.

This specific group is fascinating for its many high-level players as well as the rich, storied legacies behind them. The roads the players pave threaten to come to a crossroads, which altogether paint a much more significant picture behind the upcoming matches.

The story behind our most troubled competitor as of late, Last, comes first. He was a commonplace trailblazer in the online sponsored game rankings—a champion online, but an early exit offline. That is, until he finally got his first big break beating Jaedong 4-0 to claim the KSL1 finals. Afterwards, he continued his hard-fought efforts of tirelessly practicing day and night, and more recently, enduring the relentless criticism of Korean netizens and irate Jaedong fans.

One heartbreaking fall after another followed. First, he lost to Rain in the WCS BlizzCon Showmatch, then came behind effort in the ASL, before finally losing to Soulkey 0-4 in the KSL2 semifinals. In the end, Last's hopes crashing down. His hardworking lifestyle, sacrificing the comfort of constant streaming and sponsored games, ultimately bore few fruits. Later he revealed his all-too-commonplace wrist issues.

Since his days of hardship, Last has been streaming regularly again, but is the flame of competition still burning as fiercely? He'll have to answer to Soulkey, who is in many ways his successor and mirror image. Like him, Soulkey is a StarCraft talent, who after many years of mediocrity, finally gained success by winning KSL2.

Will history repeat itself again, or will Soulkey reverse the tides of fate? In doing so, he may have to put the last nail into Last's coffin. ASL7 will be a defining moment for Soulkey to not fall to the champion's curse, and be written off as a one-champion story. Meanwhile, across the aisle is someone who was incredibly close to winning his own gold.

ASL5 runner-up Snow makes his return to the offline stage. He was absent from the previous ASL and both KSLs to everyone's surprise. After defeating Flash, albeit on an imbalanced map pool, no one could have expected the sudden fade to black. For Snow, this will be his return to form or his final yelp to ever make it past the Ro16. Regardless, whether he is a top-tier competitor is tested by the strongest the ASL has to offer.

Last but not least, who could forget Calm. Poked at by his peers, it's obvious he's not nearly as good as he was before. What he had to say in the Ro24 differed. While losing to favorite Rain, he beat Where in his forte matchup ZvZ twice. However, he can’t rely on his ZvZ to carry him through this group. We will definitely see him tested to his limits this time around.


(T)Last vs (Z)Calm on Whiteout

Calm must not only defeat the best Terran player in the league, but also overcome the first ASL map in years to nearly eclipse Fighting Spirit's abysmal 36% ZvT win rate. On top of that, Calm is also the worst ZvT player in the Ro16 with a 30.5% ZvT win rate the past two months. How will Calm turn the tables when all odds are stacked against him?

On the surface this is another clean wash-out by a far superior Terran. However, Last isn't in shape, and Calm displayed great composure and crisis control in his Ro24 matches. That said, I expect a specialized strategy. There are plenty of moves that have pushed aside map imbalance and changed the focus to the early game. A play along the lines of Modesty's 2-hatch lurker or Shine's hydra-guardian strategy are examples.

As for how stable both players are, I'd reason both are capable of large blunders—Last moreso. It's been so long since I've seen a capable Last that I feel he will continue his losing streak to even a lower-tier player like Calm. I can also easily see Calm making his own big mistakes. Strangely, against better players, especially when he does a more unique play, Calm appears to keep his cool well enough, and at least better than Last at his worst. I give the overall slight edge to Calm for the win.


(Z)Soulkey vs (P)Snow on Whiteout

Today's performance will mark whether Snow fades into the background again or meets the expectations raised of him when he beat Flash in ASL5. As fate would have it, Snow will have to repeat the same feat of having to defeat the arguably best player in the tournament.

I doubt Snow will pull the same trick from his sleeve that he pulled against Action. We'll likely see a play more in line with his usual, steady macro-oriented play or perhaps a twist on the reaver-drop play. I'd bargain that we'll see a 2-stargate play as the perfect stylized play for this match. On some other level, Soulkey might anticipate the reaver play and opt for some air carapace opener that gets its head flipped on by corsairs.

Most likely though we're going to see your common run-of-the-mill macro game. Snow's late game play doesn't encourage a fierce, fast paced brand of play. And as per usual, the many sprawled out bases will support Soulkey into overwhelming Snow in the late game. Unless a Soulkey-esque blunder of losing all of his drones to a DT is made, Soulkey will be your victor.


Winners Match: (Z)Calm vs (Z)Soulkey on Neo Sylphid

Calm has never particularly impressed as either a strong micro-player, or even mind-game player. While consistent, the notes he does hit are always below-average, and I expect no different on Neo Sylphid where Soulkey will enter the Ro8.


Losers Match: (P)Snow vs (T)Last on Neo Sylphid

In the few tourneys Last competed in, he’s shown a penchant for sharp timing attacks. Perhaps we'll see yet another to attack Snow during a vulnerable phase where he waits for reavers. We've seen an attack done by Flash time and time again just when reavers are out and dragoons are few that has crippled Snow before.

In any case, moves that undercut Snow's usual reaver wizardry and playmaking moves will be key to toppling the Protoss. If Snow is allowed to go on the attack, I foresee Last booking a quick exit from ASL7. I don't think this will be Last's exit to make though, and I see Snow's mediocre macro to bear little weight to Last's resilience and solid production of his own in the longer game. Last, just barely, will take the win.


Final Match: (T)Last vs (Z)Calm on Block Chain

Despite the appearances on TV, Block Chain is actually Terran favored according to online rankings with a 57.4% win rate. Calm's less-than-stellar mutalisk control and mediocre dropship defense are large targets for Last to shoot for. The tipping point will be all about Calm managing to stabilize in the mid game and simultaneously denying Last's bases. In any case, I expect Last to take the clean victory from Calm to meet Soulkey in the Ro8.

Predictions:
Calm > Last // Whiteout
Soulkey > Snow // Whiteout
Soulkey > Calm // Neo Sylphid
Last > Snow // Neo Sylphid
Last > Calm // Block Chain

(T)Last and (Z)Soulkey advance to the Ro8!



Writers: Ty2
Graphics: v1
Editors: EsportsJohn
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TL+ Member
Akio
Profile Joined January 2019
Finland1534 Posts
February 09 2019 14:26 GMT
#2
Group B does indeed look insane, hoping for my boy Snow to pull through though, especially his PvT gives hopes
そーれいけいけ~
rockslave
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Brazil318 Posts
February 09 2019 15:29 GMT
#3
I don't think Calm beats Last, but he could beat Soulkey. ZvZ is more about tactics than macro and Calm did beat JD in a bo5 (though it was so long ago).
What qxc said.
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4877 Posts
February 09 2019 15:56 GMT
#4
I think the predictions for Group B are bizarre here. First off, Ty2 says that Calm will beat Last in his worst matchup on an incredibly Terran-favored map. Then he writes off Calm as below average and gives everyone else easy wins against him. Like hello? That doesn't even make sense. If you're expecting Last to choke, just say so. And if he does choke, you should expect him to choke in all of his matches, not just the one he's definitely almost guaranteed to win.

My predictions:

Last > Calm
Soulkey > Snow
Soulkey > Last
Calm > Snow
Last > Calm

There is a small chance Last beats Soulkey and then we have a ZvZ in the final match. If that happens, I still expect Soulkey to win, but it'll be closer than Last vs Calm.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
A.Alm
Profile Joined September 2012
Sweden427 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-09 16:29:09
February 09 2019 16:28 GMT
#5
^was thinking the same...
Can't wait for the games! Soulkey & Snow please <3
Ty2
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
United States1416 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-09 17:22:48
February 09 2019 17:21 GMT
#6
On February 10 2019 00:56 EsportsJohn wrote:
I think the predictions for Group B are bizarre here. First off, Ty2 says that Calm will beat Last in his worst matchup on an incredibly Terran-favored map. Then he writes off Calm as below average and gives everyone else easy wins against him. Like hello? That doesn't even make sense. If you're expecting Last to choke, just say so. And if he does choke, you should expect him to choke in all of his matches, not just the one he's definitely almost guaranteed to win.

My predictions:

Last > Calm
Soulkey > Snow
Soulkey > Last
Calm > Snow
Last > Calm

There is a small chance Last beats Soulkey and then we have a ZvZ in the final match. If that happens, I still expect Soulkey to win, but it'll be closer than Last vs Calm.

You bring up good points, esportsjohn. Allow me to explain some of my thinking that I should've included, and some new points I've since developed after doing some more research.

Lately in my previews I've only predicted the favored player to win, but this is a really one-dimensional way of thinking, so I thought I'd try harder to think about the underdog's chances. Calm, even though he's been in a slump, showed vs Miso that he still has some strands left from when he won the MSL championship. That calm, collected, and resilient composure that fought through BO disadvantages and tore through Miso's fumbling was what allowed him to win. With that same fighting spirit and steady hand, he can beat a trembling, off-his-game Last.

Versus Last, in this format, he has a lot of time to prepare on such a unique map that only really becomes difficult when the late game/dropships come. There are definitely a lot of strategies open here based on many unique terrain features like the forests, wide open mains, ridges overlooking the natural, etc. Maybe lurker drops, 2 hatch muta, or a straight up lurker bust like we saw from Modesty are within the realm of possibility.

As for Last, he's been known not to be good in tournaments and in preparation. It's easily underestimated. Of course, Last's KSL 1 trophy and Ro4 finish in ASL 6 and KSL 2 beg to differ. However, while not the case in ASL 6, that is what did him in in a one-sided 0-4 vs Soulkey in KSL 2. And repeatedly before, he has always played markedly below his online form. That is all the more the case now because he has stopped his goal of seriously competing and wants to focus on being happy. In short, a Last of the form we saw prior to his KSL 1 championship is likely. In that time we saw really unfortunate play, something reminiscent of Light.

That's why I think Calm will win based on his composure he displayed vs Miso, the format allowing greater opportunity for preparation, the unique map opening many possibilities, and Last's markedly poor offline performance, especially since his priorities have changed. Now, why would Last lose to the worst Zerg in the league on the most favored map pool yet still manage to win against Snow (according to my predictions)? This is where my thinking is probably shakiest and it is a stretch.

This is a setting Snow can't prepare for as much as the first match. Something closer to a straight-up game seems clear here. I also think Last will regain some of his composure mentally,thinking, "Wow, I lost to Calm. Calm.I better not screw this up because if I lose this game, I'm out of the tournament." I also think Snow has shown great weakness, losing to early pushes. Although, he is still a master at PvT. The map is also pretty good for reaver drops. Anyway I'll leave it at that.

Of course, Last could roflstomp Calm and it'll seem like this is all for nothing, but that's the goodness of analysis and prediction.
WriterI feel weird.
Frudgey
Profile Joined September 2012
Canada1535 Posts
February 09 2019 17:31 GMT
#7
I have this dreadful feeling that no Terrans will advance to the round of 8. I don't feel like the Terran players have been doing well this season. Maybe that's just me though.
It is better to die for The Emperor than live for yourself.
Ideas
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
United States7790 Posts
February 09 2019 17:35 GMT
#8
On February 10 2019 02:31 Frudgey wrote:
I have this dreadful feeling that no Terrans will advance to the round of 8. I don't feel like the Terran players have been doing well this season. Maybe that's just me though.


It's a huge possibility. Piano definitely isn't making it out. It'll be really hard for Last. Sharp and Mind are better than modesty so one of them SHOULD make it out, but you never know when a terran will just randomly be slightly late on turrets and lose to 2 hatch muta.
I like starcraft
A.Alm
Profile Joined September 2012
Sweden427 Posts
February 09 2019 17:41 GMT
#9
On February 10 2019 02:31 Frudgey wrote:
I have this dreadful feeling that no Terrans will advance to the round of 8. I don't feel like the Terran players have been doing well this season. Maybe that's just me though.


yeah the latest maps have not been very terran favored.
JieXian
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
Malaysia4544 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-09 18:07:46
February 09 2019 18:01 GMT
#10
Isn't it stated in the article that Whiteout and BlockChain are Terran favoured?

Putting up Frudgey links was a nice addition, he is doing some good work.

Hoping for lots of good games!
Please send me a PM of any song you like that I most probably never heard of! I am looking for poeple to chat about writing and producing music | http://www.youtube.com/c/JeiShian |
Nematocyst
Profile Joined October 2017
United States154 Posts
February 09 2019 18:46 GMT
#11
I doubt Last picked Calm expecting to lose. It's not impossible for Calm to win, but even before KSL1, Last was always Ro8 material. Calm hasn't been. It'd be nice, sure. I'd love to see him up his game.
Alpha-NP-
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
United States1242 Posts
February 10 2019 02:38 GMT
#12
I’m expecting boring games but it we are lucky we might see Effort entertain us with an interesting mole Zerg game with burrow ZvP. I saw a sick ZvP burrow game of his on his youtube channe. Hope we have an exciting group A. Cheers fellow nerds.
Duceman
Profile Joined June 2018
United States87 Posts
February 11 2019 05:54 GMT
#13
Last > Calm
Soulkey > SnOw
Soulkey > Last
SnOw > Calm
SnOw > Last
Brainojack
Profile Joined March 2018
Canada154 Posts
February 11 2019 13:16 GMT
#14
I can't wait for the tastosis highlights from group A
quirinus
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Croatia2489 Posts
February 12 2019 10:05 GMT
#15
Ty for the writeup!

Suggestion:
Put the group (like in the LP) between the "Group X preview" and the text. Or at least list all the group members there.

Not everyone knows the groups by heart - this provides a nice reminder, and allows the readers to make their own predictions before reading, then comparing them to the text. It is also easier to find first the group you are more interested in.
All candles lit within him, and there was purity. | First auto-promoted BW LP editor.
Akio
Profile Joined January 2019
Finland1534 Posts
February 12 2019 11:26 GMT
#16
Wow, what a group so far.

+ Show Spoiler +
congrats to Calm for winning the group, would have not expected that. Sick strats against Last especially, guess practicing with Flash ain't that bad
そーれいけいけ~
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4877 Posts
February 13 2019 06:01 GMT
#17
On February 12 2019 19:05 quirinus wrote:
Ty for the writeup!

Suggestion:
Put the group (like in the LP) between the "Group X preview" and the text. Or at least list all the group members there.

Not everyone knows the groups by heart - this provides a nice reminder, and allows the readers to make their own predictions before reading, then comparing them to the text. It is also easier to find first the group you are more interested in.


Can do!
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
Taekwon
Profile Joined May 2010
United States8154 Posts
February 13 2019 15:44 GMT
#18
Group B was an absolute pleasure to watch. Excellent write-up.
▲ ▲ ▲
InmateNextdoor
Profile Joined November 2017
43 Posts
February 17 2019 04:21 GMT
#19
Where is part 2?
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