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On March 30 2012 11:09 GhostOwl wrote:
What is this season/past season's race winrates?
@Mortality: You do realize swarm season was 50/50 ZvT right? The fact that the period the Zergs did the best vs Terran was relatively even doesnt set off any alarms about match imbalance?
The classical balance of T > Z > P > T has always existed. At its best ZvT has only been about 50-50. At its best PvZ has only been about 50-50. At its best TvP has only been about 50-50.
The issue is the balance of the second match-up. And if you are paying attention to OP, his point isn't that TvZ is better than ZvP, but that historically ZvP and TvZ are more imbalanced than PvT, which is why Terran is dominant.
MY point is that this is a gross over-simplification since balance is controlled by metagame and metagame is dictated by the innovators, ergo the race that has the most significant innovators will ultimately appear to be the strongest. Had Boxer never played this game, I honestly believe that to this day Terran would be considered the weak race. Not only because of what Boxer himself did, but because of the players who followed him. Similarly, say what you want about Savior as a person, but his impact is undeniable.
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There's a lot more than what meets the eye. The idea of Terran being ever-so-slightly more powerful than Zerg or Protoss is really insignificant in the long run. The magic of Broodwar is there are a hundred of other variables that we have to account for rather than 'Oh tanks should have 1 less range'.
For example in driving games, if we had 3 cars - 1 has the fastest top speed, 1 has fastest acceleration and other has best handling. If all 3 cars were considered 'balanced', then it boils down to the: Player, Map, Game Mechanics.
However, if all maps were Neo Outlier, we definitely would see a problem here.
Broodwar is balanced to an accepted balance level. Not ultimate balance because it is ultimately impossible to achieve. It's amazing how Broodwar is not about how this and that should be nerfed, but we talk about strategy, players, insane micro/macro and mechanics instead. If commentators were like 'Lol, tanks imba', Broodwar would lose alot of fans but instead they say 'Lol, Flash is god'.
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On the contrary, if we had a car driving at 61 km/h instead of 60, we would see the 61 car pull further and further ahead over time. This car is terran scum.
However, there are other factors. But the thing is, the other factors stack with this slight imbalance, pushing terran far enough ahead to make bonjwas.
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On March 30 2012 14:52 Lightwip wrote:
On the contrary, if we had a car driving at 61 km/h instead of 60, we would see the 61 car pull further and further ahead over time. This car is terran scum.
However, there are other factors. But the thing is, the other factors stack with this slight imbalance, pushing terran far enough ahead to make bonjwas.
Not very logical. That assumes the road is straight. That assumes that speed is a good thing 100% of the time. It's not. When making tight curves, the faster you move, the larger the arc your car makes, ergo, the worse your turn becomes.
I don't know exactly what prompted this topic. The statistics are interesting, but very unconvincing.
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you forgot to mention the part where terran is an awful race below progamer level
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On March 30 2012 17:00 Caladbolg wrote:Show nested quote +On March 30 2012 14:52 Lightwip wrote:
On the contrary, if we had a car driving at 61 km/h instead of 60, we would see the 61 car pull further and further ahead over time. This car is terran scum.
However, there are other factors. But the thing is, the other factors stack with this slight imbalance, pushing terran far enough ahead to make bonjwas. Not very logical. That assumes the road is straight. That assumes that speed is a good thing 100% of the time. It's not. When making tight curves, the faster you move, the larger the arc your car makes, ergo, the worse your turn becomes. I don't know exactly what prompted this topic. The statistics are interesting, but very unconvincing.
I like the car/road to race/map analogy.
Initial D ftw!
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To be honest, post-savior TvZ has consistently had a Terran edge to it, looking at Proleague:
Swarm-Season is a myth. Looking at the aggregate numbers, Hell, look at all the proleague aggregate winrate numbers through the years. TvZ has ALWAYS been, every season, T favored, even if the numbers have varied:
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/leagues/123_SKY2005_Proleague_R1
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/leagues/124_SKY2005_Proleague_R2
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/leagues/5_SKY2006_Proleague_R1
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/leagues/3_SKY2006_Proleague_R2
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/leagues/118_Shinhan07_Proleague_R1
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/leagues/133_Shinhan07_Proleague_R2
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/leagues/157_Shinhan08-09_Proleague
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/leagues/274_Shinhan09-10_Proleague
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/leagues/710_Shinhan10-11_Proleague
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/leagues/2085_SKP11-12_Proleague_S1
(Im excluding individual and allstar/winner leagues because they have a somewhat biased sample so dont give as honest an overview of the scene as the classic team league setup)
On March 29 2012 12:18 1a2a3aPro wrote:There are several potential points to object your analysis on. I will name only a few of them. Firstly, you are taking historical data from the beginning of Brood War. This is simply not fair. Pre-savior ZvT is in no resemblance to post-savior ZvT. The same can be said for mutalisk micro and stacking. Or the popularization of forge fast expansion builds against Zerg. These changes revolutionized a matchup that before this, was heavily favoured towards one race. These older changes add skew to the %s and distribution. The second point I want to make, is that just because the best players have been Terran, does not mean that Terran is the best race. The players growing up idolize and want to be like BoxeR, like NaDa, like oov. This causes a heavier skew on the ladder towards these races. It also causes there to be very good coaching for those respected races, from some of these players (I'm looking at you, oov). Finally, how much skew is there, really? Winning 16 in a row is ridiculous, and is not a fair judge of a players ability. A player with 70% across all matchups would not only be S class, they would be as good as Flash. This means a player can do WWLWWLWWLW, repeat, for their entire career, and always win Bo3s and have a great win rate in proleague. Why is it necessary to have such ridiculous streaks? I feel that you have some selection bias here, you are selecting a statistic that will of course heavily favour Terran, due to the volatility of PvP and ZvZ maches. Overall, I think this is "see great Terran players, infer Terran bias, find a way to make statistics work to my conclusion." 1) Terran destroyed for a long time before players figured out different things, adds skew. 2) The %s we are talking about are very, very minute. Compare these to a game like WC3, and you will see what I mean (a couple of races come out clearly better). 3) Your criteria of large win streak is not the characteristic of a bonjwa. Someone with a consistent 70-75% winrate would simply completely dominate the game. I will re-evaluate my #1 if you can prove the validity of this statement: Show nested quote +
1. There can be no complaints of a lucky season or an outlier player. The Six Dragons era is statistically insignificant. Swarm Season is statistically insignificant. Flash, Boxer, Oov, and Nada are also all statistically insignificant.
Over ANY 3-4 year period, these numbers are about equal. Savior's innovations, Nal_rA's innovations, etc. are all insignificant over time because all the other races are, in the long term, able to compensate for these differences. These statistics are not a relic of a pre-Savior past.
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On March 30 2012 17:52 puppykiller wrote:
you forgot to mention the part where terran is an awful race below progamer level
Only because people aren't very good at playing it.
Unless you missed the part where I noted that under pro level is irrelevant?
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I totally agree with Lightwip. But I still don’t comprehend how Jd has over 81% wins vs. ter in 2011. And Bisu with his >71% vs Z overall. Absolutely insane.
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As much as you may not want to admit it, because you seem to disslike Terran, maps play a huge role in how well a race does. That is why during the corse of proleague's, teams wont send certain races out on certain maps, skewing the %'s. I understand you probley feel frustration twords the Terran race, in which case i would urge you to do some research and find out which maps Terran, statistically, does bad on and only play those maps.
Also, Terran is not as forgiving as you say. In a TvP game, lets just say, if protoss holds off the 2/1 200/200 push, protoss has a better chance of winning that game, because at that point protoss has enough base's/gateways to just throw units at Terran untill he breaks.
I am a lifetime zerg player, but I dont really see the imbalance in the race(s), today, that you are speaking of. Mabey you are refering to the imbalance of the tank shooting half way across the map back in 2000, but if we look at each race, as it stands today, it is very balanced and has been this way for quite awhile, and the only imbalances you will find come from the maps.
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Take your balance discussions to Sc2 , this is broodwar where any amount of skill can make up for any disadvantage.
i.e.: learning how to control the pace of zvt by incorporating a threat of backstabbing mentally breaking your opponent down
Take your bullshit balance whining back to Sc2 where it belongs
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On March 31 2012 02:05 decker247777 wrote:
Take your balance discussions to Sc2 , this is broodwar where any amount of skill can make up for any disadvantage.
i.e.: learning how to control the pace of zvt by incorporating a threat of backstabbing mentally breaking your opponent down
Take your bullshit balance whining back to Sc2 where it belongs
Because using statistical analysis to try to prove imbalance is whining.
On March 31 2012 00:14 sGs.Stregon wrote:
As much as you may not want to admit it, because you seem to disslike Terran, maps play a huge role in how well a race does. That is why during the corse of proleague's, teams wont send certain races out on certain maps, skewing the %'s. I understand you probley feel frustration twords the Terran race, in which case i would urge you to do some research and find out which maps Terran, statistically, does bad on and only play those maps.
Also, Terran is not as forgiving as you say. In a TvP game, lets just say, if protoss holds off the 2/1 200/200 push, protoss has a better chance of winning that game, because at that point protoss has enough base's/gateways to just throw units at Terran untill he breaks.
I am a lifetime zerg player, but I dont really see the imbalance in the race(s), today, that you are speaking of. Mabey you are refering to the imbalance of the tank shooting half way across the map back in 2000, but if we look at each race, as it stands today, it is very balanced and has been this way for quite awhile, and the only imbalances you will find come from the maps.
Oh, maps matter all right. Yet as an aggregate performance, the effect of map balance is mitigated. Even after accounting for fluctuations, terran is still ever so slightly ahead, and that coupled with a few other factors makes the path to bonjwahood much, much easier.
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It is very thickly veiled and well intended whining. The best kind of whining.
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On March 29 2012 12:23 endy wrote:
While I agree that on the ~32k games you aggregated "anomalies" like Flash do not impact on the race statistics figures, you cannot keep this assumption at your next step, it's like
1. Flash, Bisu, NaDa incredible win rates do not impact on 32k games. Ok.
2. Let's keep this assumption when we only have 36 players and 20 games for each player. You can't keep this assumption at all.
In order to use the same variability of your entire population when looking at your sample, you would have to argue that your selection of 36 players were chosen at random. As I understand it, your fictional Starleague selects the best of each race, in which case you would have to look at the variability across the sample (36) to determine if the results were significant enough. You speak of "qualifying" so I'm not sure how you're determining the players within the group. I'm not sure if I agree with your measure of 16/20 as being representative of a bonjwa.
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On March 31 2012 07:07 TwoToneTerran wrote:
It is very thickly veiled and well intended whining. The best kind of whining.
More like "your idol gets the easy path to greatness."
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On March 31 2012 08:24 Lightwip wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2012 07:07 TwoToneTerran wrote:
It is very thickly veiled and well intended whining. The best kind of whining. More like "your idol gets the easy path to greatness."
Haha as if Flash is my idol. He's just the latest iteration of great KT players.
So, question, why isn't Fantasy bonjwa? I mean it's so easy, right, he's Terran!
It's whining, plain and simple, and shows a notable lack of knowledge of the game and scene itself for pretty much anytime before Flash was playing. Seriously, go try to play on Bifrost or Nostalgia and you'll figure out why Terrans won everything.
Statistics without context.
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Just throwing this one out there...maybe terran has better players?
Just an idea.
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On March 31 2012 08:27 TwoToneTerran wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2012 08:24 Lightwip wrote:On March 31 2012 07:07 TwoToneTerran wrote:
It is very thickly veiled and well intended whining. The best kind of whining. More like "your idol gets the easy path to greatness." Haha as if Flash is my idol. He's just the latest iteration of great KT players. So, question, why isn't Fantasy bonjwa? I mean it's so easy, right, he's Terran! It's whining, plain and simple, and shows a notable lack of knowledge of the game and scene itself for pretty much anytime before Flash was playing. Seriously, go try to play on Bifrost or Nostalgia and you'll figure out why Terrans won everything. Statistics without context.
2 simple reasons why Fantasy isn't bonjwa
1) He's not S-class level player like Flash / Bisu / Jaedong. Fantasy has weak mentality and chokes easily.
2) Another Terran is already occupying the bonjwa throne
Yes, maps do make a difference, but it's the race that can get the most benefit from maps, like Tank range can abuse cliffs like no other units can because they have the longest range, that make a race more advantageous than others through maps.
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On March 31 2012 08:27 TwoToneTerran wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2012 08:24 Lightwip wrote:On March 31 2012 07:07 TwoToneTerran wrote:
It is very thickly veiled and well intended whining. The best kind of whining. More like "your idol gets the easy path to greatness." Haha as if Flash is my idol. He's just the latest iteration of great KT players. So, question, why isn't Fantasy bonjwa? I mean it's so easy, right, he's Terran! It's whining, plain and simple, and shows a notable lack of knowledge of the game and scene itself for pretty much anytime before Flash was playing. Seriously, go try to play on Bifrost or Nostalgia and you'll figure out why Terrans won everything. Statistics without context.
It's as if you recognize your own argument's faults and grow defensive in denial. Then you flame and flame, with no arguments but that I simply do not understand! How wonderful.
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/maps/84_Bifrost
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/maps/42_Nostalgia
I can't deny, both of these maps are very terran. But the stats still aren't that significant. One had nearly no games on it(and the future iterations of Bifrost are even worse for your case) and the others deviate only slightly from the aggregates.
The fact is, Terran gets maps that are hard for them too. Dreamliner, Battle Royal, HBR. And yet after all that, they still have the largest win %. The fact is, terran has the best chance to win, and the best chance to make bonjwas because of an inherent imbalance in their favor, enhanced by multiple favorable conditions.
Let's not pretend a map or two in terran's favor made terran the race of bonjwas, because everyone has ups and downs in maps. But one factor that HAS always remained constant is that terrans have a favorable situation in matchups over long stretches of time.
Your argument is basically "I know it, I believe it, that settles it."
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On March 31 2012 08:24 Lightwip wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2012 07:07 TwoToneTerran wrote:
It is very thickly veiled and well intended whining. The best kind of whining. More like "your idol gets the easy path to greatness."
Okay I've had enough of this nonsense. I tried to fight fire with fire using an enormously long post on statistics, so let's just try straightforward and pure logic.
Let's say Terran is, as you say, ever-so-slightly imbalanced. It has virtually no effect on what RACE wins Starleagues. Do you known why?
Because the players who win Starleagues are not flukes. You said the exact same thing earlier in this thread. MSLs, maybe (no that was not a slight jab at Bisu, though it could be), but not Starleagues.
In fact, it is not WHAT RACE wins starleagues, it is about THE PLAYER. JD had, as someone said earlier, a ridiculous TvZ streak where he won 80%, and a ridiculous ZvZ streak when he was over 80%. Bisu has always been beast at PvZ (the "weak" MU), and Fantasy is ridiculously strong TvP but laughable TvZ.
Those "average stats" have absolutely nothing to do with who wins. Do you know why? The race itself is not competing. For someone like JD, do you think a slight TvZ imbalance stopped his 80% madness? NO. It has zero effect. Do you think Flash used to crush Protoss with bio because TvP is slightly in favor of Protoss. NO. No effect.
Your "statistics" assume that every player is "average". This is nonsense. Only ONE PLAYER will win the Starleague, and he is never "average" and is never affected by what is "probable". JD on a good day could have raped everyone to win the Starleague. 80% ZvZ? Flash 80% TvT? Bisu 70%+ PvZ career? The top level is not touched by stupid statistics and probability. At the end of the day, it is the better player who walks away with the trophy. The only exceptions I can think of are map balance, power outages, and KESPA. Which are completely different topics altogether.
In fact, it wasn't until recently when everyone started saying "Terran Imba". You know why? Everyone went through Swarm season and Six Dragon season, but one person broke everything. Flash. Flash is imba, not Terran. Do you see tons of amazing Terrans constantly competing in Starleague titles recently? Where is your slight "imba" for everyone else? Who other than Fantasy even reaches the finals? Is it just that "all the other terrans are just incompetent"?
Take a look at this.
2011 Jinair OSL Semis: 1 T, 2 Z, 1 P (Fanta, Hydra, Soo, Jangbi)
2010 KAL OSL 2 Semis: 1 T, 1 Z, 2 P (Flash, JD, Free, Stork)
2010 KAL OSL 1 Semis: 1 T, 1 Z, 2 P (Flash, Effort, Pure, Kal)
2009 EVER OSL Semis: 1 T, 2 Z, 1 P (Flash, JD, Calm, Movie)
2009 Bacchus OSL Semis: 1 T, 3 Z (Fanta, JD, Yellow[arnc], type-b)
2008 Batoo OSL Semis: 1 T, 2 Z, 1 P (Fanta, JD, by.hero, Bisu)
2008 Incruit OSL Semis: 1 T, 1 Z, 2 P (Fanta, GGPlay, Stork, Best)
2008 EVER OSL Semis: 2 Z, 2 P (Luxury, July, Best, Backho)
2008 Bacchus OSL Semis: 1 T, 1 Z, 2 P (Flash, Luxury, Bisu, Stork)
2007 EVER OSL Semis: 1 T, 1 Z, 2 P (Upmagic, JD, Bisu, Stork)
2007 Daum OSL Semis: 2 T, 1 Z, 1 P (Flash, Iris, GGPlay, Stork)
You have to go back 12 OSLs and 5 YEARS for the last time there was more than 1 Terran in the Semis of a Starleague.
Over the previous 11 seasons:
Terran has had 10 semifinalists (for only 3 unique players)
Zerg has had 16 semifinalists (for 10 unique players),
Protoss has had 15 semifinalists (for 9 unique players).
The point is this. Your "statistics" would be great if they actually were shown to be true. But they're nonsense. They have absolutely no effect on who WINS starleagues. Sure they might have some effect at the average level. But I'm sick of hearing you whine about Terrans winning starleagues, because you have absolutely NOTHING to back it up, not your statistics (as I disproved earlier), or even results. If your "imba theory" was true, why hasn't it shown up in the past 5 YEARS? Most people see 5 years as a DAMN long time, and if you really believe in statistics as I do, then you'll know that 5 years is a long time for "imba" not to show up. You might raise the ridiculous rebuttal that including the reign of the 4 other bonjwas would change the statistics, but that is 5+ years ago. I'm not going to analyze tennis and say that the wooden racquet with whatever strings was "imba", because that was freaking back then, and this is now. No one plays with those strategies anymore.
I don't even know how you can really respond to this. I've had enough of this "Terran imba" nonsense. If you really want to, go complain in the SC2 thread as someone said earlier, where Terran is AFAIK actually broken. I hear their semifinals are constantly filled with random Terrans. That, is called "real evidence".
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EPT
