EPT[MSL Spoiler] His Overwhelming Advantage - Page 18
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Avidkeystamper
United States8552 Posts
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
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Vasoline73
United States7762 Posts
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tomatriedes
New Zealand5356 Posts
On January 24 2010 16:34 meeple wrote: Well... I dunno as a ref I don't think I would really be comfortable making that decision. Of course Flash was behind and JD had a huge advantage... but there's always room for a massive mistake from JD. It was probably the right choice, but I always think that a game should be won by the players and not the refs. So, you would prefer a rematch even in the case where one player has nothing and is seconds away from GGing? | ||
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Avidkeystamper
United States8552 Posts
On January 24 2010 16:39 Vasoline73 wrote: Preach it Fakesteve. When you have people like Last Romantic, Plexa, Idra, Fakesteve and Chill all saying a rematch was the correct course of action... well then it's not as clear cut as people are pretending it is -_- Well, at least everyone understands Jaedong had at least a 90% chance of winning that game, then it's fine with me. There is no correct choice to the rematch question anyways. | ||
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SuperArc
Austria7781 Posts
On January 24 2010 16:39 Vasoline73 wrote: Preach it Fakesteve. When you have people like Last Romantic, Plexa, Idra, Fakesteve and Chill all saying a rematch was the correct course of action... well then it's not as clear cut as people are pretending it is -_- I wonder if they were willing to rematch if they were IN JD's position? I'd bet a lot of money that they would take the win. It's always easy to say "rematch is fair" if the decision doesnt affect you at all. | ||
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samachking
Bahrain4949 Posts
On January 24 2010 02:15 samachking wrote: There is one argument that I feel has not been given enough attention. And there is one assumption that is assumed behind most of the arguments here. Is the fact that a regame would mean a 50-50 situation for both players,however, this is clearly untrue. If you paid attention to JD's builds this entire series and especially this set, they were all set up ( and brilliant mind games by JD I might say) to hard counter whatever JD predicted Flash would do, and he did a optimal build at each set in reaction. The thing is, the build JD used and probably prepared 80% of the time for on this map is not one that can be repeated, its a one time build. JD went 3hat before pool, which is the 14cc equivalent for Z in this mu except its a lot more risky. To proceed by choosing to opt for a hidden base + Crazy Zerg style, its a extremely gimmicky build, and Flash could hardcounter it many times. Not only that JD had to comeback from a huge deficit after losing his 3rd, he played the game of his life and got ahead SIGNIFICANTLY. Not a 75% to 25% lead, but a 90% lead, he secured 4 bases with 5 gas while expoing to a 5th base while as Flash has been running on 6 mineral patches and 2 depleted geysers.He can only pump what? 3-4rax + 1port max with that econ? You might say that Flash had a 10% chance of winning that game and therefore a re should occur. But consider this situation from JD's perspective, he has the game in the bag for sure and by the largest chance he has it won in the next 2 minutes, 9:1 ratio of winning, so you decide to give him a re and give Flash a 6/7:4 ratio of winning? How fair is that? Thats completely unfair and from a very basic game theory perspective by any rational standards completely unfair considering the mind games and the one time nature of builds used in bo5s. The build JD used is not one that can be repeated. This is not a 50-50 situation as many suppose here. Flash gains a lot more from the re than JD, from an completely lost game to a game where you are ahead by reading the build your opponent prepared zealously for beforehand and can counter on a extremely imbalanced map(Odd eye is basically tiamat 2.0 due to the difficulty of securing your expos due to their structure, and the only option is a 2hat muta contain build, and if you watched zergs games vs MnM on that map they tend to opt for 2hat muta into 3base 4gas gaurd all ins). This is a lose-lose situation for both players, but JD had A LOT more to lose from that re compared to Flash and Kespa have made the proper decision by considering the situation and props to them for that. I confess to being a JD fan and I had a write up planned in case JD won the finals to confirm his Bonjwahood(which sadly has to be delayed due to this incident.). But if you analyze and rewatch the game with a cool head and consider the nature of mind games in bo5s you'll realize this is a rational choice. I am reposting this because this is certainly not getting enough attention. A regame would fuck JD over way more than Flash, JD would have almost no chance of winning the regame, do you guys understand this? Taking away a won game to give him a regame where he has very low chances of winning due to his gimmick build revealed is pretty ridiculous. | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7762 Posts
On January 24 2010 16:49 SuperArc wrote: I wonder if they were willing to rematch if they were IN JD's position? I'd bet a lot of money that they would take the win. It's always easy to say "rematch is fair" if the decision doesnt affect you at all. Kespa is supposed to make the most fair choice, for both the players and the sport as a whole. I really doubt that anyone who was arguing that it was fair would suddenly change their minds in JD's shoes. Forcing a guaranteed loss on someone who had a chance to win (in my opinion) is much worse than forcing a rematch that the advantaged player in the previous can still win. It affects the series flow much less than making a random call that goes against all previous calls made by Kespa. If JD was the one losing the game when the blackout occurred I would still call for a rematch, even as a Flash fan, that's how I feel about it. Calling an unwon game in a finals is horrible and kills the dynamic much worse than a rematch, and there's plenty of people who agree. | ||
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QuakerOats
United States1024 Posts
On January 24 2010 16:57 Vasoline73 wrote: Kespa is supposed to make the most fair choice, for both the players and the sport as a whole. I really doubt that anyone who was arguing that it was fair would suddenly change their minds in JD's shoes. Forcing a guaranteed loss on someone who had a chance to win (in my opinion) is much worse than forcing a rematch that the advantaged player in the previous can still win. It affects the series flow much less than making a random call that goes against all previous calls made by Kespa. If JD was the one losing the game when the blackout occurred I would still call for a rematch, even as a Flash fan, that's how I feel about it. Calling an unwon game in a finals is horrible and kills the dynamic much worse than a rematch, and there's plenty of people who agree. But think about it this way... let's say JD had a 90% chance of winning (and many people, including ret, think it was even more than that). Giving a rematch would be making JD's 90% into a 50% and making Flash's 10% into a 50%. And due to various factors, it would probably be even less than 50% for JD (T>Z map, JD using a custom build that Flash would not let him do a second time). I don't see how this is more fair than making Flash's <10% into a 0%. And I know games aren't determined by random chance so maybe 50% is not the right way of putting it but you know what I mean... it'd be removing JD's massive advantage and giving him a disadvantage instead. As opposed to just saying Flash's huge disadvantage is close enough to a loss. | ||
motbob
United States12546 Posts
On January 24 2010 16:57 Vasoline73 wrote: Forcing a guaranteed loss on someone who had a chance to win (in my opinion) is much worse than forcing a rematch that the advantaged player in the previous can still win. This is a ridiculous position. What do you mean by "has a chance to win?" If the blackout had happened one minute later when, say, Flash's third cc was in the air with swarm underneath, Flash still has "a chance to win" at that point, right? What if it's ten seconds before that, and a game-ending attack is about to roll over Flash's third? Where do you draw the line between "has a chance to win" and "doesn't have a chance to win?" It's a judgment call. And that's what the KeSPA refs made: a judgment call. | ||
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Letmelose
Korea (South)3227 Posts
On January 24 2010 16:57 Vasoline73 wrote: Kespa is supposed to make the most fair choice, for both the players and the sport as a whole. I really doubt that anyone who was arguing that it was fair would suddenly change their minds in JD's shoes. Forcing a guaranteed loss on someone who had a chance to win (in my opinion) is much worse than forcing a rematch that the advantaged player in the previous can still win. It affects the series flow much less than making a random call that goes against all previous calls made by Kespa. If JD was the one losing the game when the blackout occurred I would still call for a rematch, even as a Flash fan, that's how I feel about it. Calling an unwon game in a finals is horrible and kills the dynamic much worse than a rematch, and there's plenty of people who agree. Jaedong would most likely have won game three. This is out of debate. Judging from their starting BO in game four (Jaedong totally predicting Flash's bunker rush in his least favourite map), Jaedong was in a very good shape to close up the series there. I don't think things would have been very different had we done the "fair" thing to do which restart the game from where they left off; Jaedong on the brink of taking Flash down. Now. Gifting Jaedong the win in game three totally screwed up the series, but the series was unsalvagable the moment the game crashed anyhow. But you are fucking kidding yourself if you think that a rematch would have done both players any justice. The dynamic of the series would have been changed completely in Flash's favour. Which is what you wanted. Which is what you expected. Something you didn't get and have been bitching about ever since. Flash was screwed over, but we all know that things probably wouldn't have been different, but you just want to take that 5% chance of "but things might have been different" and skew it so far in Flash's favour. Then you pretend that would have been "more fair" and "would have saved the dynamic of the series more". Bullshit. It would have wrecked the series, but would have had Flash in a solid position to take the series instead of on the brink of defeat. That's why you are so livid about it. Don't pretend otherwise. | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7762 Posts
On January 24 2010 17:08 motbob wrote: This is a ridiculous position. What do you mean by "has a chance to win?" If the blackout had happened one minute later when, say, Flash's third cc was in the air with swarm underneath, Flash still has "a chance to win" at that point, right? What if it's ten seconds before that, and a game-ending attack is about to roll over Flash's third? Where do you draw the line between "has a chance to win" and "doesn't have a chance to win?" It's a judgment call. And that's what the KeSPA refs made: a judgment call. How is a ridiculous position at all when a bunch of people well respected in the community are pretty much saying exactly that? Just because you see it another way doesn't make it ridiculous at all. If the blackout happened a minute later there would obviously be more information to make a correct judgement call. The "What if"'s could go on for ages. What if the VOD went on another 30 seconds and Flash sent troops to JD's 4 o clock expo and JD chose to defend instead of counter Flash's min only? What if the observer showed Flash's rally and there were dropships popping out right before the crash? I just think you can't call the game based off this VOD to the point where a W/O is the obvious good choice. It wasn't Bisu v July on Bluestorm or anything and even that was a close call for Kespa. | ||
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Evs
Philippines330 Posts
Good or bad, that call on game 3 seriously titled everything in Jaedong's favor and ended up tainting this finals whichever way games 4 or 5 would have gone. | ||
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gumbum8
United States721 Posts
On January 24 2010 17:14 Letmelose wrote: Jaedong would most likely have won game three. This is out of debate. Judging from their starting BO in game four (Jaedong totally predicting Flash's bunker rush in his least favourite map), Jaedong was in a very good shape to close up the series there. I don't think things would have been very different had we done the "fair" thing to do which restart the game from where they left off; Jaedong on the brink of taking Flash down. Now. Gifting Jaedong the win in game three totally screwed up the series, but the series was unsalvagable the moment the game crashed anyhow. But you are fucking kidding yourself if you think that a rematch would have done both players any justice. The dynamic of the series would have been changed completely in Flash's favour. Which is what you wanted. Which is what you expected. Something you didn't get and have been bitching about ever since. Flash was screwed over, but we all know that things probably wouldn't have been different, but you just want to take that 5% chance of "but things might have been different" and skew it so far in Flash's favour. Then you pretend that would have been "more fair" and "would have saved the dynamic of the series more". Bullshit. It would have wrecked the series, but would have had Flash in a solid position to take the series instead of on the brink of defeat. That's why you are so livid about it. Don't pretend otherwise. I support this 300%. I think I'll take this as my official opinion of the matter, all credit to letmelose. | ||
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FireGuyX
United States1712 Posts
On January 24 2010 17:14 Letmelose wrote: Jaedong would most likely have won game three. This is out of debate. Judging from their starting BO in game four (Jaedong totally predicting Flash's bunker rush in his least favourite map), Jaedong was in a very good shape to close up the series there. I don't think things would have been very different had we done the "fair" thing to do which restart the game from where they left off; Jaedong on the brink of taking Flash down. Now. Gifting Jaedong the win in game three totally screwed up the series, but the series was unsalvagable the moment the game crashed anyhow. But you are fucking kidding yourself if you think that a rematch would have done both players any justice. The dynamic of the series would have been changed completely in Flash's favour. Which is what you wanted. Which is what you expected. Something you didn't get and have been bitching about ever since. Flash was screwed over, but we all know that things probably wouldn't have been different, but you just want to take that 5% chance of "but things might have been different" and skew it so far in Flash's favour. Then you pretend that would have been "more fair" and "would have saved the dynamic of the series more". Bullshit. It would have wrecked the series, but would have had Flash in a solid position to take the series instead of on the brink of defeat. That's why you are so livid about it. Don't pretend otherwise. 5% chance? You don't know what the fuck you're talking about, more like 50% chance because Flash got his 3rd up, not to mention Flash had 3 armor and 3 weapons upgraded. If Flash gged legitimately than there would of been no uproar from Flash's dad or his coach. Flash had an advantage, but then Jaedong slightly was ahead economically later on in the game. We don't know how the results would of turned out because of the black out, an automatic win was bull shit. | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7762 Posts
On January 24 2010 17:14 Letmelose wrote: Jaedong would most likely have won game three. This is out of debate. Judging from their starting BO in game four (Jaedong totally predicting Flash's bunker rush in his least favourite map), Jaedong was in a very good shape to close up the series there. I don't think things would have been very different had we done the "fair" thing to do which restart the game from where they left off; Jaedong on the brink of taking Flash down. Now. Gifting Jaedong the win in game three totally screwed up the series, but the series was unsalvagable the moment the game crashed anyhow. But you are fucking kidding yourself if you think that a rematch would have done both players any justice. The dynamic of the series would have been changed completely in Flash's favour. Which is what you wanted. Which is what you expected. Something you didn't get and have been bitching about ever since. Flash was screwed over, but we all know that things probably wouldn't have been different, but you just want to take that 5% chance of "but things might have been different" and skew it so far in Flash's favour. Then you pretend that would have been "more fair" and "would have saved the dynamic of the series more". Bullshit. It would have wrecked the series, but would have had Flash in a solid position to take the series instead of on the brink of defeat. That's why you are so livid about it. Don't pretend otherwise. Hmm, someone is really angry. If it was JD in Flash's position I would call for a rematch regardless. It's what Kespa has always done, why is it wrong to be surprised? Do you really think Plexa, Chill or Fakesteve would suddenly change their minds if Jaedong was the one who was losing but still had a chance? Take a couple deep breaths before you post again and start accusing. | ||
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qrs
United States3637 Posts
On January 24 2010 17:27 FireGuyX wrote: 5% chance? You don't know what the fuck you're talking about, more like 50% chance because Flash got his 3rd up, not to mention Flash had 3 armor and 3 weapons upgraded. If Flash gged legitimately than there would of been no uproar from Flash's dad or his coach. Flash had an advantage, but then Jaedong slightly was ahead economically later on in the game. We don't know how the results would of turned out because of the black out, an automatic win was bull shit. No, you don't know what you're talking about, and you never do. Why do you even bother posting? Everyone agrees that Jaedong was significantly ahead in that game, including Kespa's referees, who not only understand the game better than you but had access to more information about it. The only questions are exactly how much Jaedong was ahead by and whether that was enough of a reason to award the game to him. | ||
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AttackZerg
United States7454 Posts
Honestly any C level zerg could have closed off flash in that situation, I know that I could have.... it isn't hard to press 5su6ss7sz8sz with full upgrades and stream ultras against a terran with between 4-7 sci vessels and no mines OR tanks. Regardless of that without flash saying "I was going to lose, I concede game 3" the finals were ruined. The nicest thing flash could do for jaedong would be to come out in an interview and state just that "I was going to lose" that way his friend and rival can get credit for what was some of the most unique and ballsy zerg play I've ever seen in a finals 2 hat uber muta, 3hat->poolx2 , overpool. God even thinking about how he prepared his weird plans makes me realize how much time he really did spend preparing. 3 hat muta -> dual slowdrop on two islands into gaurd->ultra/defiler... Any of you think that it is time for other zergs to pickup the gauntlet and try and mix it up? Two hat muta would be so strong if terran had to prepare for all of the other viable strategys that are availible to zerg. | ||
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KP_CollectoR
United States744 Posts
On January 24 2010 04:39 thopol wrote: I think he looked so shaken because in the deciding match of the bo5 he went 8 rax vs 9 pool. Not sure if you watched this live, but for the entire hour between game 3 and 4 whenever they showed Flash he looked aboslutely crushed. 17 years old and taken out of your playing mindset/away from your computer for an hour of uncertainty while your dad and team are raging/nearly get kicked out of the studio on the biggest night of your life as a progamer etc. I'm just speculating on those factors influencing him, but honestly if you watched it live (which not everyone commenting in these threads did) you would see how demoralized and "done" with this event both players seemed to be mentally in between games 3 and 4. The competetive spirit was completely gone, and I don't think that's up for debate. You are more than welcome to disagree with me. Flash went 8rax, and then into one base bio against 3 hatch on a large macro map with four player spawns - just saying. Several several fans even flooded out the instant game four ended. There are many viewers of the live matches who agree how the decision and one hour hiatus surrounding game 3 completely killed the morale of the players and audience + the spirit of this entire event. | ||
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samachking
Bahrain4949 Posts
On January 24 2010 17:27 FireGuyX wrote: 5% chance? You don't know what the fuck you're talking about, more like 50% chance because Flash got his 3rd up, not to mention Flash had 3 armor and 3 weapons upgraded. If Flash gged legitimately than there would of been no uproar from Flash's dad or his coach. Flash had an advantage, but then Jaedong slightly was ahead economically later on in the game. We don't know how the results would of turned out because of the black out, an automatic win was bull shit. You shouldnt be allowed to post on anything related to strategy, most of your posts regarding situations is completely biased assessments with no clue whatsoever and is basically churning out incomprehensible garbage. 50% really? What game have you been watching, and have you ever played TvZ late game? I assure you that pumping 4rax MnM with 1 port off 6 mineral patches has no chance at all of beating 5gas(soon 6) ultra/filer/ling that are fully upgraded. Anyone who thinks Flash had even a slight advantage in that game is ridiculously misinformed. You are a Flash/Movie fanboy but stop spamming garbage strategical appraisals when they lose okay? No one is arguing that Flash is ahead, but whether a re should be allowed or not, everyone knows that Flash was extremely behind that game. | ||
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