Jaedong's Bo5 Record - Page 3

On January 21 2010 02:54 Monsen wrote:
The problem is, statistics don't account for the insantiy that is Flash.

On January 21 2010 02:59 torm3ntin wrote:
it's nice to hear all the math but in the end Flash will win

On January 21 2010 03:22 NrG.GoD- wrote:
I can see that you have tried incorporating the method of "Binomial Probability" to come up with a figure to represent JAedong's probability of winning a Bo5

First your wording is a little ambiguous. You said "Specifically, there are 32 possible outcomes for a 5 game series between X and Y". In this sentence you did not say "Best of five". Therefore your argument that the number of possible outcomes in the series is 32, is true.

If you meant "Best of five" then obviously your "calculations" would differ in figures, and you need to take into account that the series can be of 3 different number of sets - ie) there can be a 5game bo5(3-2,2-3), 4game bo5(3-1, 1-3), or a 3 game bo5(5-0,0-5), and you would need to consider the 3 "scenarios" seperately and add up the probabilties, which would complicate the problem

You have failed to take into consideration the psychological damages experienced by the players X and Y when they lose a game(especially if they lose to a cheese). When X beats Y with a BBS build then the chances of X winning the 2nd game would also increase.

As someone already mentioned, you have also failed to take into consideration the skill-level of the opponent. Doing a Bo5 against FLASH is surely different to doing a bo5 against Gorush.

Also the position of the players is not considered. What I mean is right now Flash is the top player, and although jaedong is better in a career sense, Jaedong is in the "challenger" position. This MSL final can be titled "Can jaedong stop Flash?", not "Can Flash stop Jaedong". This "force" emitted by the players certainly impact gameplay.

It is ridiculous to represent someone's probability of winning with a number in a series of games. Have we not already experienced on 2007/3/3, when bisu's probability of winning was calculated to be like 3% (which includes 3-0 victory, 3-1, or a 3-2), and yet he won 3-0 against the king savior?

On January 21 2010 03:28 lMPERVlOUS wrote:

Actually, that is taken into consideration.....

On January 21 2010 03:32 NrG.GoD- wrote:



No. You did not because you have chosen to consider a "Five game series" not a "Best of Five".

Please read carefully what i wrote. I said "IF you meant bo5"

On January 21 2010 02:47 FieryBalrog wrote:
Its completely silly to take Jaedong's win % as a representation of his single-game win percentage as that takes into account his series wins. This biases the data. I was under the impression you were trying to separate the two categories.

If you want to analyze his Bo5 performance in terms of the expected win rate given his single game win %, you need to actually count up his single game win %, excluding all series games.

On January 21 2010 03:51 ArmChairCritic wrote:
EDIT: ofc isnt this true because it depends on the opposing players skill level as well but might be used as an indicator

On January 21 2010 03:51 ArmChairCritic wrote:
So much math fail in this thread:
P(Jaedong wins)= 0.6829
since it is Bo5 will lead to:
X~NB(3,0.6829)
First instance, 3 straight wins by the dong=(0.6829)^3
Second instance, 3 wins, 1 loss=3*(0.6829)^3(1-0.6829)^1
Third instance, 3 wins, 2 losses=6*(0.6829)^3(1-0.6829)^2
Doing this on my calculator gives me
0.8135733316

EDIT: ofc isnt this true because it depends on the opposing players skill level as well but might be used as an indicator

On January 21 2010 03:55 TheBB wrote:

Sure it's true. It's true assuming no prior knowledge of the opposing player. Or rather, assuming the opposing player is drawn from the same distribution as the previous opponents. All probability computation depends crucially on the information available, you just can't escape that. There are no universally true probabilities, unless you want to talk quantum mechanics here, but I guess you don't.