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On January 21 2010 01:03 freelander wrote:
there are 6 possibilities, not 32 wtf
winning 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 or losing 0-3, 1-3, 2-3
You're both wrong. The first poster is aware of combinatorics, but forgets about one aspect of the problem. The second poster is very wrong. Me, I just counted them by hand, because that's always the safest way, if you can do it..
There are 20 possibilities
There's one way of winning 3-0, and one of losing 0-3
There are three ways of winning 3-1 and of losing 1-3
There are six ways of winning 3-2 or of losing 2-3
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On January 21 2010 00:52 qrs wrote:Here's the interesting thing, though: According to Liquipedia, Jaedong's overall best-of-five record is 17-3 (85%), which is quite a bit higher than the 81.36% than his overall record would predict.
No, it's not "quite a bit higher". I haven't run the numbers on it (nor will I), but I expect this to be within acceptable error, i.e. not statisticially significant for reasonable p-values.
On January 21 2010 00:52 qrs wrote:
Add in the fact that we would expect his individual game-winning percentage to be lower in best-of-five's since he only faces those players who have been playing well enough to make it to the end of tournaments, and his series-winning percentage starts looking even more impressive.
This, on the other hand, is probably a real effect.
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he always loses game 1 (on purpose) to win next 3. So it's all part of his plan :}.
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On January 21 2010 01:36 Aim Here wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 01:03 freelander wrote:
there are 6 possibilities, not 32 wtf
winning 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 or losing 0-3, 1-3, 2-3 You're both wrong. The first poster is aware of combinatorics, but forgets about one aspect of the problem. The second poster is very wrong. Me, I just counted them by hand, because that's always the safest way, if you can do it.. There are 20 possibilities There's one way of winning 3-0, and one of losing 0-3 There are three ways of winning 3-1 and of losing 1-3 There are six ways of winning 3-2 or of losing 2-3
Actually, the OP is right, from a calculation perspective. I didn't see it until he mentioned why he did it.
You're right, that there are 20 possibilities, however, the calculations doing it this way are incredibly messy. Doing it, assuming 32 possibilities, is much easier, although a little trickier to understand if you haven't taken any statistics courses in high school/higher.
EDIT - I'll do it myself.
Okay, by forming a tree of possibilities, assuming shadow games are played (allowing results of 4-1, and 5-0, even though those extra games played do not mean anything), there are 32 possibilities.
The chance of winning a game is 68.29%. Or 0.6829. I'll represent this number with "a".
The chance to win a single game = a
The chance to lose a single game = 1 - a
Assuming a win, the second round gives a chance to win of a, and a chance to lose of 1 - a.
Therefore, in 2 games, the chance to win both is (a)(a), the chance to win 1 and lose 1 is (a)(1-a), the chance to lose 2 games is (1-a)(1-a). There are two possible chances of having the 2 games go 1-1, meanwhile there is only one way of having the series go 2-0 or 0-2.
The chance to win at least 1 game is a^2 + 2a(1-a).
Extending that to all 5 rounds, the chance to win at least 3 games is
a^5(1) + a^4(1-a)(5) + a^3(1-a)(10)
Simplified, this leads to:
a^3(6a^2 - 15a + 10)
Substituting 0.6829 into the equation:
0.8136 = 81.36%
EDIT - until you have about 30 BO5 series to look at, the results won't be statistically significant anyways..... Suffice it to say, according to his win percentage, he should win around 80% of the BO5's he plays. And that shows to be true.
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On January 21 2010 01:40 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 00:52 qrs wrote:Here's the interesting thing, though: According to Liquipedia, Jaedong's overall best-of-five record is 17-3 (85%), which is quite a bit higher than the 81.36% than his overall record would predict. No, it's not "quite a bit higher". I haven't run the numbers on it (nor will I), but I expect this to be within acceptable error, i.e. not statistically significant for reasonable p-values. Fair point. I was planning to ask anyone who knows statistics (unlike me) to weigh in on that, but once I saw the detailed numbers on the Liquipedia page, it became moot.
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I like how almost every single post is about math and not about Jaedong/Bo5s.
I'll just say that Jaedong has a knack for winning series with a decided mental disadvantage to start (the Arena MSL series against Hwasin and Bacchus 09 OSL series against Fantasy come to mind) in which players go into the series with a current win-streak over him, having beaten him in arguably insulting fashion during Proleague.
On top of that, they win the first set of the series in a very convincing fashion (in both instances I said to myself "Jaedong is outclassed this time, gonna get so murked" etc.) And then he manages to make the other player extremely nervous/demoralized and sweep the next three games.
I'm curious to see how many Bo5's Flash has lost, because I'm positive the number is about just as small (Off the top of my head, he lost to Never_V_ in Arena and Jaedong in GOMTV Intel Classic final)
Edit: Looks like he lost to GGplay during Daum OSL, and I forgot about Jaedong beating him in MSL S4... so I guess in the grand scheme of things he's lost quite a few
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This may be obvious but it hasn't been said explicitly... The Bo5 format is not JUST about 2 people playing games until one player gets 3 wins. There is also a mental battle ongoing throughout the series.
As many people mentioned, Jaedong (historically) does not get worse when he's in a losing position. When people say JD is good at Bo5s, they are referring to this mysterious ability to play well no matter the situation.
There's more to say but other people already said it 
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On January 21 2010 01:01 RaGe wrote:
you can't consider 4-1 or 5-0 cause that can't happen.
OP needs to take a combinatorics class.
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On January 21 2010 02:13 Shengster wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 01:01 RaGe wrote:
you can't consider 4-1 or 5-0 cause that can't happen. OP needs to take a combinatorics class.
Not quite. He's right, from a statistical analysis point of view..... Although they cannot physically happen, you can assume that they do to make the calculations much easier.
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There's also the fact that he may be quite good at preparation against opponents, something that would have a much greater effect when he has weeks to prepare.
Not all BW games are created equal, there may be a player who can win 65% of his games with 2 days of preparation, but the additional 5 days to give him a week means that even against stronger competition he wins 75%.
Obviously it would be very hard to get a statistically meaningful sample for this, but I think it should be recognized.
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you can do all this math and try to put some fancy language in there in an attempt to sound smart and stuff, but jaedong is not going to beat flash
yeah btw and not only can you not win 4-1 and 5-0, but the game doesn't go on if you lose before the fifth match
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On January 21 2010 02:24 Nal_rAwr wrote:
you can do all this math and try to put some fancy language in there in an attempt to sound smart and stuff, but jaedong is not going to beat flash
This isn't really relevant to the OP's point at all. Lets keep the focus on math and Jaedong and save the hype and trash talk for the appropriate threads.
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Jaedong vs Flash is so big that every thread is a hype and trash talk thread for them.
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On January 21 2010 02:24 Nal_rAwr wrote:
you can do all this math and try to put some fancy language in there in an attempt to sound smart and stuff, but jaedong is not going to beat flash
yeah btw and not only can you not win 4-1 and 5-0, but the game doesn't go on if you lose before the fifth match
Assuming that those shadow games are played makes the math simpler, but just as accurate.
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The small statistics for maps shows that T has a good advantage over Z on every map they will have to play. And  Flash is on the fire now. Still I feel like the outcome of the games depends on  Jaedong. Actually I would go with 60% vs 40% for him to win the series.
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Since you guys love math, please double-check my numbers, I may have made an error or two:
Flash Bo5 Record -
All
(Series) 13-5 72.2%
(Individual Games) 43-26 62.3%
TvP
(Series) 7-1 87.5%
(Individual Games) 21-8 72.4%
***
3-1W (Movie, EVER 2009 OSL)
3-0W (Best, NATE MSL)
3-0W (BackHo, Intel Classic S1)
3-2W (Stork, GSI)
3-1W (Anytime, GSI)
3-0 W (Stork, Bacchus 2008 OSL)
3-1W (Bisu, Bacchus 2008 OSL)
0-3L(Stork, Daum OSL - 3rd place match?)
TvT
(Series) 3-1 - 75.0%
(Individual Games) 10-7 - 58.8 %
***
3-1W (Iris, Intel Classic S3)
1-3L (Never_V_, Arena MSL)
3-2W (Lomo, Arena MSL)
3-1W (Mind, Intel Classic Pre-Season)
TvZ
(Series) 3-3 50.0%
(Individual Games) 12-11 52.1%
***
3-1W (Kwanro, NATE MSL)
3-1W (Calm, EVER 2009 OSL)
3-0W (July, Intel Classic S3)
0-3L (Jaedong, Intel Classic S1)
1-3L (Jaedong, GOMTV MSL S4)
2-3L (ggplay, Daum OSL)
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Its completely silly to take Jaedong's win % as a representation of his single-game win percentage as that takes into account his series wins. This biases the data. I was under the impression you were trying to separate the two categories.
If you want to analyze his Bo5 performance in terms of the expected win rate given his single game win %, you need to actually count up his single game win %, excluding all series games.
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According to the "62.3%" for individual games, this gives Flash a chance of 72.1% chance of winning a BO5 against an individual.
Jaedong's BO5 % chance better than Flash's BO5 chance, it's 81% vs 72%. Due to this, I give Jaedong a 53% chance of winning. It's still close, and anyone's game, but I still have to give Jaedong a slight edge.
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On January 21 2010 02:47 FieryBalrog wrote:
Its completely silly to take Jaedong's win % as a representation of his single-game win percentage as that takes into account his series wins. This biases the data. I was under the impression you were trying to separate the two categories.
If you want to analyze his Bo5 performance in terms of the expected win rate given his single game win %, you need to actually count up his single game win %, excluding all series games.
Actually, the more games you take into account, the better the data.....
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The problem is, statistics don't account for the insanity that is Flash.
edit: typo oO
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EPT
