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China13814 Posts
On January 21 2010 01:03 freelander wrote: there are 6 possibilities, not 32 wtf winning 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 or losing 0-3, 1-3, 2-3 From player A's perspective: A wins WWW LWWW WLWW WWLW LLWWW LWLWW LWWLW WLLWW WLWLW WWLLW x2 (for every losing possibility) = 20 possibilities | ||
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verteqz
Canada89 Posts
On January 21 2010 05:40 lMPERVlOUS wrote: Okay, look at it this way. Playing against random players, from the same pool of opponents, Jaedong has a 81% chance of winning any given BO5. Flash, on the other hand, has a 71% chance. Note that this is based off of their 1v1 stats. Jaedong has a higher chance of winning against any given player, meaning he is, statistically speaking, the better player. This means he will have a statistical advantage in a BO5. Dividing Jaedong's percent chance of winning against any one person, and dividing it by the sum of the two player's percentages, we find that Jaedong has a 53% chance of winning against Flash. Why? Take a 100 BO5 sample of Jaedong. He should win 81 of them. Take a 100 BO5 sample of Flash. He should win 72% of them. Total BO5's won -> 153. Jaedong won 81 of them. The chance of him winning against Flash is therefore 81/153 = 53% It's very crude, and simple, but it shows that they are both extraordinary players, and it really is anybody's game. It does not take into account their recent history or recent skill level, it takes into account every recorded game..... Note that this is only an approximation, and once the players have significant skill level divergence, the estimate gets to be really bad..... But a solution is still possible. Dude how are you getting Flash's numbers? He has a higher overall win rate, a higher ELO and a higher TvZ win rate than Jaedong's ZvT win rate. Based purely on probability measures excluding map statistics he should be the favourite. How does Flash have a 71% chance in a BO5? Taking his overall win rate of 70.25% with 5 trials in a binomial distribution, the probability of him having 2 or fewer losses (i.e he wins) is 84.02% which is greater than Jaedong's 81.36%. But again, it's retarded to calculate this stuff... do you think you can analyze a game played 2 years ago (which these win rates take into account) and tell me from that how well the same player is playing today? I think most people would agree that based on how well each player has been playing recently, Flash would be the favourite. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4215 Posts
On January 21 2010 02:44 KP_CollectoR wrote: Flash (Individual Games) 43-26 62.3% If that's wrong, the calculations I did were wrong..... Without taking a considerable number of games into consideration, statistical analysis does not work anyways. By taking older games into consideration, statistical analysis can be more useful, however, it is limited in the sense that the recent games are the ones that matter, not the older ones. It sucks either way..... | ||
TheYango
United States47024 Posts
On January 21 2010 08:42 lMPERVlOUS wrote: If that's wrong, the calculations I did were wrong..... It sucks either way..... That's based on Bo5 games alone. The problem is that both players have each played less than 20 Bo5s ever (and less than 10 Bo5s in the relevant matchup). That's not a wide enough sample of players to say that variations in opponent skill average out. Even whole-career statistics aren't good enough. | ||
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ssj_ds
Australia12 Posts
Doing the same for the MSL finals gives a figure of 67.9% (over 2 out of 3) chance for flash to win the BO5 against Jaedong. Interestingly, against anyone else, it would be >80%. I think this is a better method (though still not accurate as it fails to consider so many variables). | ||
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KP_CollectoR
United States744 Posts
On January 21 2010 06:29 dani_caliKorea wrote: lol at JD's Bo5 record Best post in the thread lol... On a side note, isn't it true that Flash is 3-0 vs Jaedong in Bo3s, while Jaedong is 2-0 vs Flash in Bo5s? Kinda interesting... Also, Flash beat Jaedong in the Ro8 of both Starleagues that he won. Jaedong won Bacchus 09, which was the sponsor of Flash's first starleague championship while Flash won EVER 09, which was the sponsor for Jaedong's first starleague championship. | ||
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eNoq
Netherlands502 Posts
I think he's going to give us some new strats this series.. And how beast would it be if Jaedong 3-0 Flash? That would make my month. | ||
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raiame
United States421 Posts
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Impervious
Canada4215 Posts
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peidongyang
Canada2084 Posts
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DreaM)XeRO
Korea (South)4667 Posts
On January 22 2010 09:19 peidongyang wrote: Let's remember who JD lost to in another MSL BO5. Yes, that's right folk. A Terran. That Terran was ForGG. Do you really thing Flash's TvZ isn't as good as ForGG's? I know that I can't say that just because ForGG beat Jaedong that Flash will, but IMO Jaedong's worse match-up is ZvT. The statistics say so. this post is garbage Jaedong broke out onto the scene BECAUSE of his monsterous ZvT | ||
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AttackZerg
United States7465 Posts
On January 22 2010 09:21 DreaM)XeRO wrote: this post is garbage Jaedong broke out onto the scene BECAUSE of his monsterous ZvT His ZvT has been his weakest match for a long time(almost a year). Even players with poor mechanics like fantasy push him to his limits both physically and mentally. I wish things were different but jaedong definately has a chink in his armor and that is world class tvz play. I still don't think forgg is a fair indictator of how jaedong will fair against flash. | ||
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hyst.eric.al
United States2332 Posts
On January 21 2010 06:29 dani_caliKorea wrote: LOL yes therock spits on all statistics.lol at JD's Bo5 record http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhPbohc6Ltk | ||
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AlwaysGG
Taiwan952 Posts
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obesechicken13
United States10467 Posts
buncha geeks XD | ||
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Impervious
Canada4215 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + You have no idea. I've gone up to a girl and used the line "Hey, can I be your first derivative, so I can lie tangent to your curves? If not, can I be your second derivative, so I can get a good feel of all of your concavities?" It didn't work, but still. Definitely worth the shot. | ||
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Warrior Madness
Canada3791 Posts
He hasn't lost a Bo5 yet this year, and has had 3 of them so far. At this rate, He will probably play and win, far more Bo5 series this year than his 2008 high of 7-1. JD truly is the best Bo5 player of all time... | ||
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jalstar
United States8198 Posts
On January 24 2010 20:48 Warrior Madness wrote: I thought these were some interesting statistics.... In BO5 matches, JD's worst matchup statistically? ZvZ! With a win ratio of 66.7% (Out of a huge sample size of 3 series...) His best matchup? ZvT... at a whopping 90% win rate, with his ZvP close behind at 87.5%. He hasn't lost a Bo5 yet this year, and has had 3 of them so far. At this rate, He will probably play and win, far more Bo5 series this year than his 2008 high of 7-1. JD truly is the best Bo5 player of all time... Jaedong's best matchup was ZvT when he first started owning people, then ZvZ in 08-09 (JvZ) and now it's ZvP. I'd still pick Calm over him in a Bo5. JvZ is not what it once was and Calm's ZvZ has been beastly all year. | ||
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WWJDD
India342 Posts
Jaedong pretty much owned Flash on Terran favored maps. What I had been predicting all week. | ||
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