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Aligulac Fantasy Proleague

Blogs > Darkdwarf
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Darkdwarf
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Sweden960 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-14 12:15:55
January 14 2014 00:57 GMT
#1
I thought it would be cool to do a different version of TL's FPL, not something better per se, but different. And fun, I hope.

This is what I imagine.

Step 1: Costs for players are imported from FPL, and to the list is added players from outside SPL. I started this process here.

Step 2: The eight (or whatever number is suitable) team captains are selected.

Step 3: The captains draft their teams, one player at a time, until they all have x (I think 7-9 is a good amount) players on their teams. The collective costs of their players can't exceed y (something like 30-40 I'd suggest).

Step 4: The captains send in their lineups for the first week's games.

Step 5: The games are decided using the following process: Aligulac percentages are recorded, a random number is generated between 0 and 100, victory is assigned.

Example:

Maru vs eMotion.

       (1772) Maru  0-0  eMotion (1366)    
-------------------------------------------
67.30% 1-0 0-1 32.70%
-------------------------------------------
67.30% 32.70%

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

Random number generated: 10

Maru is victorious.

(I want to make this process better by adjusting the calculation based on score vs each other and form vs opposing race, as provided by aligulac, but for now, I think this is good.)

Step 6: Repeat the process.


I would keep the Aligulac Fantasy Proleague (AFPL) updated in a way like this, if there is interest out there in doing this. Otherwise I'll just do it on my own, because I'm a thorough sc2 nerd.

Is there anyone that would want to be a team captain in the AFPL, then?


Edit:

Captains for now
Darkdwarf
Pangpootata
Grovbolle
mouzChase

***
Teams: IM, Jin Air, Invictus || Players: Maru, GuMiho, INnoVation, Ryung, sOs, Squirtle, NaNiwa, Has, Zoun, Life, Rogue, Dark
Pangpootata
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
1838 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-14 02:36:27
January 14 2014 02:34 GMT
#2
This is an extremely exiciting idea, however I foresee a problem. In SPL, picking strategy is about who has the higest player ability to cost ratio. But in your proposed AFPL, the picking strategy is about which player has the highest aligulac ranking to cost ratio. In SPL, true player ability is a hidden variable so your choices are based on your inaccurate assessments of player skills, but in AFPL aligulac ranking is not a hidden variable. Hence there is actually a mathematically optimal way to pick players, which makes it less fun. I suggest you just use aligulac ranking for the player costs to make the player picking fair.

Also, you can come up with a formula using TLPD records to give slight advantages for maps that have a large enough sample size of games played (let's say, 50 games). An example of a formula would be to add (WR-50)/2 to a player's chances. So, if lets say A (terran) 55% - 45% B (toss) and the map is PvT favoured 56%, we will change B's chance to 48% and A's chance to 52%. Then we can try to pick a map pool that has a good mix of maps that are balanced, and maps favouring certain races. Of course, the formula is just an example and you can probably find a better one.

This way, there will be 2 points of strategy for lineups: 1) Choosing favourable maps for players 2) Trying to get their best matchups

And 3 points of strategy for player picking: 1) Deciding whether you want top-heavy or balanced teams 2) Deciding whether you want balanced players or matchup snipers 3) Picking players that are actually good in real life so that their aligulac ranking increases as the game progresses

Then we can also have mid-week trades between mutually consenting players.

Anyway, I would be excited to join AFPL.
Darkdwarf
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Sweden960 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-14 03:03:00
January 14 2014 03:02 GMT
#3
On January 14 2014 11:34 Pangpootata wrote:
This is an extremely exiciting idea, however I foresee a problem. In SPL, picking strategy is about who has the higest player ability to cost ratio. But in your proposed AFPL, the picking strategy is about which player has the highest aligulac ranking to cost ratio. In SPL, true player ability is a hidden variable so your choices are based on your inaccurate assessments of player skills, but in AFPL aligulac ranking is not a hidden variable. Hence there is actually a mathematically optimal way to pick players, which makes it less fun. I suggest you just use aligulac ranking for the player costs to make the player picking fair.


How would you propose to decide matches, if not by aligulac inference (remember the preserved chance for upsets)?

Also, you can come up with a formula using TLPD records to give slight advantages for maps that have a large enough sample size of games played (let's say, 50 games). An example of a formula would be to add (WR-50)/2 to a player's chances. So, if lets say A (terran) 55% - 45% B (toss) and the map is PvT favoured 56%, we will change B's chance to 48% and A's chance to 52%. Then we can try to pick a map pool that has a good mix of maps that are balanced, and maps favouring certain races. Of course, the formula is just an example and you can probably find a better one.


I agree that introducing maps and their slight imbalances would be really good for lineup selection.

This way, there will be 2 points of strategy for lineups: 1) Choosing favourable maps for players 2) Trying to get their best matchups

And 3 points of strategy for player picking: 1) Deciding whether you want top-heavy or balanced teams 2) Deciding whether you want balanced players or matchup snipers 3) Picking players that are actually good in real life so that their aligulac ranking increases as the game progresses


I agree.

Then we can also have mid-week trades between mutually consenting players.


That would be interesting!

Anyway, I would be excited to join AFPL.


You're welcome!


Edit: Zest is mine!
Teams: IM, Jin Air, Invictus || Players: Maru, GuMiho, INnoVation, Ryung, sOs, Squirtle, NaNiwa, Has, Zoun, Life, Rogue, Dark
Pangpootata
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
1838 Posts
January 14 2014 03:08 GMT
#4
On January 14 2014 12:02 Darkdwarf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2014 11:34 Pangpootata wrote:
This is an extremely exiciting idea, however I foresee a problem. In SPL, picking strategy is about who has the higest player ability to cost ratio. But in your proposed AFPL, the picking strategy is about which player has the highest aligulac ranking to cost ratio. In SPL, true player ability is a hidden variable so your choices are based on your inaccurate assessments of player skills, but in AFPL aligulac ranking is not a hidden variable. Hence there is actually a mathematically optimal way to pick players, which makes it less fun. I suggest you just use aligulac ranking for the player costs to make the player picking fair.


How would you propose to decide matches, if not by aligulac inference (remember the preserved chance for upsets)?


I think we should use the aligulac inference to calculate win ratios, before we factor in imbalance. What I mean is we should use aligulac ranking for player costs, not SPL player costs, so that players are properly valued.

Also, Zest shall be mine; I can let you take Stats.
Darkdwarf
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Sweden960 Posts
January 14 2014 03:14 GMT
#5
I opened the document for point values, so that you can help adjust the points, if you want to.

And Stats is nothing compared to Zest...
Teams: IM, Jin Air, Invictus || Players: Maru, GuMiho, INnoVation, Ryung, sOs, Squirtle, NaNiwa, Has, Zoun, Life, Rogue, Dark
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
January 14 2014 04:19 GMT
#6
I used Aligulac a fair bit to help me make my FPL team. My first impression of this AFPL is that it's overall less complex than FPL (which is fine) but that also it seems like it would be less engaging. Instead of considering players' playstyles and watching the game unfold, you'd be judging players purely by their numbers and watching a number be generated, if I understand correctly. I just think there should be something more unique involved, something to spark one's attention
jjakji fan
Pangpootata
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
1838 Posts
January 14 2014 05:11 GMT
#7
On January 14 2014 13:19 slowbacontron wrote:
I used Aligulac a fair bit to help me make my FPL team. My first impression of this AFPL is that it's overall less complex than FPL (which is fine) but that also it seems like it would be less engaging. Instead of considering players' playstyles and watching the game unfold, you'd be judging players purely by their numbers and watching a number be generated, if I understand correctly. I just think there should be something more unique involved, something to spark one's attention

Drafting team will be fun, as each player can only go to one team so you will be fighting over your favourite players. Also, doing lineups based on the maps and player matchup proficiencies will result in a lot of mindgaming between opponents.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3811 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-14 09:39:01
January 14 2014 08:33 GMT
#8
Looks cool
I will play as well if you want to accept me, I can probably help with pulling some data or making lists for you.

Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
mouzChase
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany66 Posts
January 14 2014 09:49 GMT
#9
I would like to join if there is a place left sounds awesome !
My opinion here does not reflect the views of my team / twitter @mouzChase / I <3 Scarlett
Darkdwarf
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Sweden960 Posts
January 14 2014 12:14 GMT
#10
On January 14 2014 13:19 slowbacontron wrote:
I used Aligulac a fair bit to help me make my FPL team. My first impression of this AFPL is that it's overall less complex than FPL (which is fine) but that also it seems like it would be less engaging. Instead of considering players' playstyles and watching the game unfold, you'd be judging players purely by their numbers and watching a number be generated, if I understand correctly. I just think there should be something more unique involved, something to spark one's attention


I agree that FPL is more interesting in that way, because you can actually watch the games in a meaningful way. The AFPL as I imagined it is more for those of us who actually get stuck in football manager games and the like.

If you have any good idea on how to improve the system, though, don't hesitate to tell me.

On January 14 2014 17:33 Grovbolle wrote:
Looks cool
I will play as well if you want to accept me, I can probably help with pulling some data or making lists for you.

https://twitter.com/Sc2Aligulac/status/423022993946603520


Thanks, Grovbolle. Of course you can get in! Concerning the previous discussion of assigning points considering aligulac rank, could you perhaps find a smart process for this?

On January 14 2014 18:49 mouzChase wrote:
I would like to join if there is a place left sounds awesome !


Of course! Welcome!
Teams: IM, Jin Air, Invictus || Players: Maru, GuMiho, INnoVation, Ryung, sOs, Squirtle, NaNiwa, Has, Zoun, Life, Rogue, Dark
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3811 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-14 15:31:52
January 14 2014 12:34 GMT
#11
On January 14 2014 21:14 Darkdwarf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2014 13:19 slowbacontron wrote:
I used Aligulac a fair bit to help me make my FPL team. My first impression of this AFPL is that it's overall less complex than FPL (which is fine) but that also it seems like it would be less engaging. Instead of considering players' playstyles and watching the game unfold, you'd be judging players purely by their numbers and watching a number be generated, if I understand correctly. I just think there should be something more unique involved, something to spark one's attention


I agree that FPL is more interesting in that way, because you can actually watch the games in a meaningful way. The AFPL as I imagined it is more for those of us who actually get stuck in football manager games and the like.

If you have any good idea on how to improve the system, though, don't hesitate to tell me.

Show nested quote +
On January 14 2014 17:33 Grovbolle wrote:
Looks cool
I will play as well if you want to accept me, I can probably help with pulling some data or making lists for you.

https://twitter.com/Sc2Aligulac/status/423022993946603520


Thanks, Grovbolle. Of course you can get in! Concerning the previous discussion of assigning points considering aligulac rank, could you perhaps find a smart process for this?

Show nested quote +
On January 14 2014 18:49 mouzChase wrote:
I would like to join if there is a place left sounds awesome !


Of course! Welcome!

I'm sure I can get some of the math wizards on the team to help

I have a few ideas myself as well.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3811 Posts
January 14 2014 16:01 GMT
#12
There are currently 92 players eligible to play in PL according to our DB, that is including HerO and excluding all players turned coaches like Cezanne, Ensnare, CoachPark, OriOn etc.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Darkdwarf
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Sweden960 Posts
January 14 2014 16:08 GMT
#13
On January 15 2014 01:01 Grovbolle wrote:
There are currently 92 players eligible to play in PL according to our DB, that is including HerO and excluding all players turned coaches like Cezanne, Ensnare, CoachPark, OriOn etc.


I assume you by this mean players on teams already in PL? What about players from outside of PL? I see no reason to exclude them, when we're not relying on the actual PL anyway.
Teams: IM, Jin Air, Invictus || Players: Maru, GuMiho, INnoVation, Ryung, sOs, Squirtle, NaNiwa, Has, Zoun, Life, Rogue, Dark
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3811 Posts
January 14 2014 16:20 GMT
#14
On January 15 2014 01:08 Darkdwarf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 15 2014 01:01 Grovbolle wrote:
There are currently 92 players eligible to play in PL according to our DB, that is including HerO and excluding all players turned coaches like Cezanne, Ensnare, CoachPark, OriOn etc.


I assume you by this mean players on teams already in PL? What about players from outside of PL? I see no reason to exclude them, when we're not relying on the actual PL anyway.

I do. I just feel like it would be the most interesting to limit the pool to PL players. Up to you ofc, but I liked the filtering
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Darkdwarf
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Sweden960 Posts
January 14 2014 16:36 GMT
#15
On January 15 2014 01:20 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 15 2014 01:08 Darkdwarf wrote:
On January 15 2014 01:01 Grovbolle wrote:
There are currently 92 players eligible to play in PL according to our DB, that is including HerO and excluding all players turned coaches like Cezanne, Ensnare, CoachPark, OriOn etc.


I assume you by this mean players on teams already in PL? What about players from outside of PL? I see no reason to exclude them, when we're not relying on the actual PL anyway.

I do. I just feel like it would be the most interesting to limit the pool to PL players. Up to you ofc, but I liked the filtering


I feel that it could be partly a way of differentiating from FPL and partly I think it would be fun for people to use their favorites, regardless of where they play.

Perhaps a good way of narrowing down the pool is PL-players + players qualified for Code A/Challenger (and code S/Premier?
Teams: IM, Jin Air, Invictus || Players: Maru, GuMiho, INnoVation, Ryung, sOs, Squirtle, NaNiwa, Has, Zoun, Life, Rogue, Dark
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3811 Posts
January 14 2014 16:57 GMT
#16
On January 15 2014 01:36 Darkdwarf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 15 2014 01:20 Grovbolle wrote:
On January 15 2014 01:08 Darkdwarf wrote:
On January 15 2014 01:01 Grovbolle wrote:
There are currently 92 players eligible to play in PL according to our DB, that is including HerO and excluding all players turned coaches like Cezanne, Ensnare, CoachPark, OriOn etc.


I assume you by this mean players on teams already in PL? What about players from outside of PL? I see no reason to exclude them, when we're not relying on the actual PL anyway.

I do. I just feel like it would be the most interesting to limit the pool to PL players. Up to you ofc, but I liked the filtering


I feel that it could be partly a way of differentiating from FPL and partly I think it would be fun for people to use their favorites, regardless of where they play.

Perhaps a good way of narrowing down the pool is PL-players + players qualified for Code A/Challenger (and code S/Premier?

I would prefer to narrow it using teams (Like include Axiom/AZUBU/Startale/Acer) or something like that since it makes the filtering easier for me.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Darkdwarf
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Sweden960 Posts
January 14 2014 17:09 GMT
#17
On January 15 2014 01:57 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 15 2014 01:36 Darkdwarf wrote:
On January 15 2014 01:20 Grovbolle wrote:
On January 15 2014 01:08 Darkdwarf wrote:
On January 15 2014 01:01 Grovbolle wrote:
There are currently 92 players eligible to play in PL according to our DB, that is including HerO and excluding all players turned coaches like Cezanne, Ensnare, CoachPark, OriOn etc.


I assume you by this mean players on teams already in PL? What about players from outside of PL? I see no reason to exclude them, when we're not relying on the actual PL anyway.

I do. I just feel like it would be the most interesting to limit the pool to PL players. Up to you ofc, but I liked the filtering


I feel that it could be partly a way of differentiating from FPL and partly I think it would be fun for people to use their favorites, regardless of where they play.

Perhaps a good way of narrowing down the pool is PL-players + players qualified for Code A/Challenger (and code S/Premier?

I would prefer to narrow it using teams (Like include Axiom/AZUBU/Startale/Acer) or something like that since it makes the filtering easier for me.


Axiom, AZUBU, StarTale, Acer, Mouz, Liquid, Millenium, mYi, Fnatic + GuMiho (:D)?
Teams: IM, Jin Air, Invictus || Players: Maru, GuMiho, INnoVation, Ryung, sOs, Squirtle, NaNiwa, Has, Zoun, Life, Rogue, Dark
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3811 Posts
January 14 2014 17:18 GMT
#18
Leenock? :-P
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3811 Posts
January 14 2014 18:21 GMT
#19
I have multiple ideas as to how this tournament could be run. Including how to do map-specific stuff, scheduling, game resolvement etc. I however do wish we could keep it to somewhat Proleague like conditions with regards to teams/players.

Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
January 14 2014 18:33 GMT
#20
:o if jjakji becones a part of this I may not be able to resist!
jjakji fan
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