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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-10-20 08:34:27
October 20 2008 08:31 GMT
#1
This blog entry will simply contain articles that I've read and found interesting or I think others my find interesting. Instead of making multiple blog posts I will just keep posting to this thread so as not to spam the blog section.

If anyone wants to discuss articles, or post their own random articles, feel free. However, I won't necessarily debate every single post, in fact I may post things that I don't even agree with myself but are well written. Many things I will be pretty neutral about.

The only thing I ask is no one post sports articles. Also put large things in spoilers.

First up:

The 1 Quadrillion dollar question: deflation or inflation?

+ Show Spoiler +

http://seekingalpha.com/article/100210-are-safe-haven-investments-really-immune-from-current-crisis

The above link has many embedded links in it not shown below.

The Quadrillion Dollar Question: Deflation or Inflation?

Is it deflation, stagflation, or hyperinflation, in the current global economic crisis? That's the quadrillion-dollar question investors must get right. This article will answer that big question but it is also meant to be a sequel to part one and part two of the serial articles talking about valuations of physical and non-physical assets as well as currencies. Please read the first two parts of the articles if you have not. It's critical to understand valuation of commodities and currencies first, before the big question of inflation versus deflation.

Recently, as the credit crisis unfolds, we saw the worst commodity price plummet in history, while the U.S. dollar index rallied amid the unfolding financial crisis. Many people wonder that the commodity bull market has ended as the global economy enters a recession. Their reasoning is that due to credit squeeze, people cut back on spending, as they could not borrow any more.

Such notion is wrong. While people looked at the weaker demand side, they failed to notice the destruction on the supply side! On the consumer spending side, people are NOT cutting back in TOTAL spending. Actually, people are squeezed to spend every dollar from their monthly income, just to keep heads above water. More and more people are living from paycheck to paycheck, meaning they have to spend every dollar they take in, and have nothing to save. They might be forced to cut spending on some specific items and spending more money on other things. The total spending in dollar terms is up.

Recent commodity price plummet is NOT a fundamental change in the supply/demand relationship. Fundamentals do not change abruptly in just three months.

The real reason is that the global credit crunch squeezes out inventories in the supply chains, causing a temporary and false supply surge, depressing the price. Such price depressing effect is only momentary. It will be corrected violently to the bullish side once the false surge of supply is exhausted and the effect of supply destruction becomes evident.

In any commodity market, besides the supply side and the demand side, there is a long supply chain connecting the supply and the demand. In different parts of the supply chain, there are sizeable stockpiles of the materials. Under normal supply, the stockpiles at different parts of the supply chain will buffer out supply disruptions and ease out price shocks. That's why when a commodity is in adequate and abundant supply, the price will be flat.

However, stockpiling materials requires operational capitals. Oftentimes money tied up in inventories is credit provided by banks, in the form of so-called commercial papers. Things work fine if the credit market is healthy and adequately funded.

Unfortunately, in a credit crunch, borrowing money is expensive or virtually impossible even for good businesses. Faced with a liquidity squeeze, businesses must raise cash for operational needs or to merely service debts. That means selling off inventories and cut spending in purchase of raw materials and equipment. When producers cut spending in productive activities, the supply destruction is in the pipelines!

Not only corporations are selling, hedge funds invested in commodities are also selling like there is no tomorrow. Every one is liquidating everything to raise cash and stick the money in safes. That is absolutely foolish! While governments around the world are printing astronomical amounts of money out of thin air, people are hoarding the funny papers in their pillows. We are in the making of a Weimar Republic on a planetary scale, and you hoard the fiat money?

When businesses at all levels suddenly sell off their inventories and at the same time halted purchase of new feedstock materials, prices are depressed prompting more sell offs. This leads to the false illusion of supply surplus, while hiding the fact that production of further supply is being suffocated. It's an extremely dangerous situation, as it could lead to a sudden onset of supply disruptions just as every one cheers at cheaper prices, without realizing that the supply chains have been squeezed empty.

My wife told me the best sales always happen right before a store goes out of business! When you go shopping this weekend and enjoy the lowest prices you haven't seen in a long while, you'd better ask the manager when will the next delivery truck arrive, or will it arrive at all! It's Economics 101 - all businesses are for profit. No one can operate at loss sustainable.

What do you expect when the supply chain stockpiles are depleted? There is no longer a buffer to absorb supply disruption and price shock. The market will suddenly discover that the supply has dried up. Therefore, the price will rally violently, in an extreme volatile way. That is what I predict will happen in all commodities in the coming weeks, including oil, food grains, and metals.

The market of platinum and palladium metal [PGM] is probably a good case study. About half of these metals are used in making the catalytic converters on vehicles. To reduce the risk of price volatility and supply disruptions, automakers normally maintain a stockpile of PGM metals worth about 6 months to one year's consumption. Jack Lifton from Resource Investors described a very interesting case when one man's attempt to modify that inventory level caused dramatic reaction in the tightly traded rhodium and platinum market.

I am a big fan of palladium and platinum investment due to these metals' bullish prospects. After the headline news of South African electricity crisis in early January caused the platinum and palladium prices to shoot up, they stayed at the relative high level until the end of June. And then, at the onset of global financial crisis, they plummeted in a free fall fashion, all the while South Africa's PGM production continue to suffer from tight electricity supply. What gives? Who is selling? Every metals analyst is puzzled by the mind-boggling fall of platinum and palladium.

The Big Three U.S. automakers, General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler are facing a severe liquidity squeeze. They have been aggressively reducing inventory levels for months. When you are in a liquidity crisis, you sell whatever asset you can sell quickly to raise cash. The most liquid asset, of course, is the platinum and palladium precious metal stockpile.

In the narrow platinum and palladium spot market, when inventories from automakers were sold out, it creates a lot of downward pressure. If industry users are selling, speculative hedge funds will be selling as well. The only buyers therefore must be the value-based long-term investors. A recent Resource Investor article by Nathan Becker also provided an explanation that hedge funds have to sell their precious metal hoardings due to liquidity squeeze.

I agree with most of what Nathan Becker has to say, but I must point out that he only considered the demand side and failed to recognize the damage that low metal prices may inflict on the supply side. No one can produce metals at heavy loss sustainable. Businesses must scale back production or shut down, if they cannot make a profit. Anglo Platinum (AAUK) is currently producing at an average cost of $1250 per ounce basket PGM metal (60% of Pt, 33% of Pd and 7% Rh) while the current market price of the PGM basket is only $778 per ounce. It's only a matter of time before South African producers must start to reduce production if the prices do not improve to profitable level soon.

Last week's market plummet creates one of the rarest buying opportunities in our times for savvy investors with cash onhand ready to buy. How often do you get to go to an out of business sale and pick up things at prices far below their cost? Nickel is on out of business sale, copper is on out of business sale, grains like wheat, corn and rice are all suddenly on nose bleeding out of business sales. Grab them while you can. It may not be there tomorrow.

Do you think mining companies and farmers can continue to sell you nickel at $5.00 a pound, wheat at $5.53 per bushel, corn at $3.84 per bushel, and expect to continue the business at all selling things well below cost? It's the same out of business sale like your wife told you!

The absolute best out of business sale is palladium, metal of the 21st century, currently at $185/ounce bid. Gold mines are everywhere, silver is mined everywhere. But only four places in the world produce significant amounts of platinum and palladium: Norilsk Nickel (NILSY.PK) in Russia; the Bushweld Complex in South Africa; Stillwater Mining (SWC) in USA; and North American Palladium (PAL) in Canada.

Not one of the four palladium producers is operating at a profit at current prices of nickel, platinum and palladium. They must each or together decide to slash production to boost metal prices, or face eventual bankruptcy. Any of these four have enough leverage power to boost metal prices on their own, and I believe there will be strong will to do that, as no business wishes to operate at a loss if they have a choice.

That is reason enough for investors to purchase physical palladium at current price, as there is a virtual guarantee the price must go up to reflect real cost, regardless of industry demand. A good historic example of when auto industrial demand of PGM metals collapsed, but investment demand still pushed the metals to all time highs, together with gold and silver, is 1980.

Out of the four, Norilsk is in bad shape and is most likely to slash production, due to low nickel price. It now stands at $4.93 per pound versus the high of $25 per pound last year. There are also huge political pressures to shut the mine down to clean up the environmental catastrophe.

But South Africa is in a much worse shape as the Rand dropped nearly 20% in one day versus the U.S. dollar. When a country's currency drops 20% in a day, it's pretty much a broken and bankrupt country. The light of South Africa will go out, so will the light for that country's PGM mining industry. I previously pointed out that ESKOM, SA's electricity company, has to keep borrowing money and burn lowest quality trash to keep operations going. Now the global credit crunch means they have lost the ability to borrow. It's not going to be long before it all blows up.

South Africa blowing up means removal of 85% of the world's platinum and 35% of palladium supply! You cannot have a more bullish story than that, on any other commodities. Stillwater Mining, with its palladium sale protected by a hedge floor price well above current market, is the best to weather out current market and best to leverage the coming bull market in palladium and platinum.

The only other metal that is even close to the bullishness of palladium/platinum is the metal cobalt. There are strong and rapidly increasing industrial demands due to alternative energy applications, and due to the need of more drilling equipment in the oil/gas industry, and due to the metal's strategic importance in military applications. I wish to dedicate one article just to cobalt. But suffice to say for now I consider cobalt a better physical metal to buy than silver and it should appreciate at least 10 fold relative to silver. Like PGM metals, 90% of the world's cobalt supply is concentrated in one country, Congo, which has been at civil war for years and the conflict looks like flaring up again. So, the supply is vulnerable while the demand is strong and growing. That's a perfect making of a bull market.

The best cobalt play I found is a stock called OM Group (OMG) (Oh-My-God). It is currently a very decent buy at a ridiculously low valuation. If you know any other cobalt play, or know places other than BHP Billiton (BHP)'s Cobalt Open Sale that I can buy physical cobalt, tell me!

Now, back to the U.S. dollar. We are creating trillions of dollars out of a vacuum and throwing them into a black hole. Make no mistake; it is inherently hyper-inflational. The whole planet is facing a big dilemma today. Short term it is about liquidity preservation or die. A little bit longer term it is about valuation preservation or die. Hoarding fiat currency while new money is created out of thin air preserves liquidity but loses value. Hoarding physical assets preserves value but reduces your liquidity.

I think we will see a very sudden and abrupt switch from a false U.S. dollar rally caused by everyone hoarding cash, to a hyperinflation scenario where everyone wants to spend the cash as fast as possible. In physics, it's like a high pressure and high temperature phase transition. The credit will go straight from solid ice to rapidly expanding vapor, skipping the liquid phase altogether, blowing everything out. The phase change will come imminently and suddenly, so be prepared for it!

A few side notes: I called for shorting Coca Cola (KO) and Pepsi (PEP), now it looks like I was right. I called for selling coal stocks like Arch Coal Inc. (ACI), Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (ANR), Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU), CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX), Foundation Coal Holdings Inc. (FCL), Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG), and James River Coal Company (JRCC) repeatedly since June 20 and I continue to make such calls as I see the U.S. coal market is now bearish. I can see JRCC drops to near $10 or even below. Continue to watch DryShips Inc. (DRYS), as it is a good indicator of the global economy.


***
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
October 20 2008 08:46 GMT
#2
Someone's comment on this article from another forum:
+ Show Spoiler +

I honestly believe this is a controlled devaluation of the system as a whole. Or I should say, a forced devaluation.

I've read all of the economist views on this, from Austrian to Keynesian, from gold and silverbugs to dollar hegemonists. Here's my opinion.

As we've seen, this is a forced devaluation. First they hit the banking sector, to get rid of the toxic stuff 'under the table.' Has there been any transparancy or willingness by the banks? Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan do not count in this, for reasons I will not get into here, as I'm sure most of you know already.

The dollar suddenly goes through the roof in value, above other currencies in comparison. Gotta keep America at the top, so foreign investors still see the US Dollar as a reserve currency.

Then, they hit the commodities sector. Total devaluation by mass deleveraging. Oil is hitting the floor despite OPECs attempts to arrest this. Gold and silver are being driven down by PAPER COMEX prices (now that's one HELL of an illusion). Leave the market to believe that there is NOWHERE to run.

With hedges down, hedge funds and mutual funds shrink, die, or flee to the dollar. Look how much money has dissapeared already from this. All that wealth, gone. Wealth that wasn't really there.

Now, the DOW and other markets are in a controlled crash, to keep people from panic selling. Seriously, every time it goes into a dive, there's a sudden 300-900 point jump back up to near positive territory or above. A sudden crash would force their hands and rush their plans.

When enough people dive into the dollar as an escape from the wealth confiscation, don't be suprised by the rate cut and mass devaluation of the dollar that happens VERY quickly, at a time that will leave few without warning with the ability to move back into hedges against the dollar. Imagine how much wealth will be lost through this move.

Now, there will be huge winners in this plan. Everyone's losing money, because the whole system has to move down from the grossly inflated numbers that are still there. Some estimates are DOW back down to near 5000. You take a guess, just don't be suprised. Those who play this with foreknowledge will jump out of hedges, or buy the hedges when low, and make a mass move to the dollar like what is happening now. Right before the dollar drops, you'll see mass buy-ups from big players, likely in commodities in their lows. Everyone else will drop like a rollercoaster on a broken track.

Those of you who are cringing over the gold and silver markets, remember that the central banks have all but stopped leasing their hoards. They are making every attempt to pull their gold and silver back into their vaults and low prices, trying to shake out all the small investors they can. Even CFTC investigators are perplexed over this mass devaluation of g/s when you would think it would be shooting through the roof. But is it so suprising? The powers that be can't have people publicly rushing into gold and silver, which in the larger scheme of things, they can't completely devalue. They WANT people in the dollar, for reasons already stated.

Now, I'm not necessarily advising you to rush all your money into physical metals, because I'm not a professional advisor, and you're gonna need cash for a while. Besides, good luck finding metals to take possession of even close to spot, in any amount that will matter.

So you have my prediction. There is nowhere to run, unless you have plans to hold for the long run. The worst place to stash your wealth is the USD. For now it's a great idea, but you better have plans to put it into something equitable and/or tangible. Like canned goods.
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
October 22 2008 06:12 GMT
#3
Wow, platinum/palladium might jump in price tomorrow. There are only a couple of those mines in the world, and one of Russia's is struggling financially right now, and has to sell its majority stake in the American platinum mine (which it owns for some ridiculous reason).

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=314841

This is compounded with the problems in South Africa right now...which has the other big platinum mine (only 4 mines produce about 90% of the world's supply of platinum).
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alpskomleko
Profile Blog Joined March 2006
Slovenia950 Posts
October 22 2008 07:05 GMT
#4
It just so happens i have a spare 3k USD lying around and judging by this article and a bit of additional browsing, I wouldn't hesitate to spend it all for some palladium. Sadly, I can't find ONE site that offers either palladium bars for sale within the EU or a site that offers leveraged/1:1 online trading in palladium options. Help?
players do games, press mens do their things. and fans do make good cheers.
fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-10-23 07:40:12
October 22 2008 07:50 GMT
#5
Sorry, I don't know much about buying precious metals in Europe. One thing you can do is check your phone book for coin dealers, and just walk into a shop and ask for it.

I have to go to bed now, but I'll look into it. The metals market is really crazy right now, so that will make it even harder.

edit: if you look at the first article I posted, there are a couple more reasons to buy palladium. Good luck with your research.

edit2: I asked someone and they suggested these links....I don't know anything about them:
http://percival-norton.co.uk/Palladium_Bullion_Coins-Palladium_Maple_Leaf_1_Troy_Ounce.html
http://www.24carat.co.uk/canadianpalladiummapleleafframe.html
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
October 23 2008 08:14 GMT
#6
I find this article below quite intriguing. It is a 67 page document which attempts to prove that Obama uses hypnosis techniques to manipulate large groups of people at a subconscious level.

http://www.dark-truth.net/files/Obama's_Use_of_Hidden_Hypnosis_techniques_in_His_Speeches.pdf

I personally have found myself mesmerized during some of Obama's speeches. This document explains what conversational hypnosis is and how Obama's wordplay, rhythm, gestures, tone, etc, are based upon known principles of such hypnosis.

What is also strange is that the article itself seems to by written in a hypnotic way. It keeps repeating things over and over. It has these big bold headings at the top and bottom of each page.

Very interesting overall, especially learning about these hypnotic techniques.
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alpskomleko
Profile Blog Joined March 2006
Slovenia950 Posts
October 23 2008 11:18 GMT
#7
On October 22 2008 16:50 fight_or_flight wrote:
edit2: I asked someone and they suggested these links....I don't know anything about them:
http://percival-norton.co.uk/Palladium_Bullion_Coins-Palladium_Maple_Leaf_1_Troy_Ounce.html
http://www.24carat.co.uk/canadianpalladiummapleleafframe.html


Thanks! Sadly, coins come for a heavy, heavy premium and are almost impossible to buy as an investment (for example, palladium is at 185ish an ounce, while those sites offer 1-ounce palladium coins for 450). And bars/bullions for near-market price are absolutely impossible to be found unless buying in tons.
Should you too be interested in palladium, I've found a good site for commodities futures with an exceptionally helpful email response team: http://www.gftuk.com/index.asp
Since it's futures, you pay a daily percentile fee for holding the options overnight, but it ammounts to only about 10% of the total holding value in 365 days. I'll be damned if the price doesn't double up within a year

As you hold a position overnight (i.e. after 22:00 UK time), a finance adjustment is made to your account. This is calculated as follows:

f = (s x p x r) / d

where
f = daily financing charge
s = number of CFDs
p = closing price as determined by GFT Global Markets (usually this will be the price on close of the underlying share)
r = relevant interest rate, PLUS 300 basis points for long positions, or MINUS 300 basis points for short positions, e.g. (4.50% + 3.00%) = 7.50%
d = number of days, i.e. where the 2nd named currency is GBP or AUD we use 360 days. Otherwise we use 365 days.
players do games, press mens do their things. and fans do make good cheers.
QuanticHawk
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States32044 Posts
October 23 2008 13:22 GMT
#8
On October 22 2008 16:05 alpskomleko wrote:
It just so happens i have a spare 3k USD lying around and judging by this article and a bit of additional browsing, I wouldn't hesitate to spend it all for some palladium. Sadly, I can't find ONE site that offers either palladium bars for sale within the EU or a site that offers leveraged/1:1 online trading in palladium options. Help?


You know that palladium would have to absolutely skyrocket for you to make anything, right?

Get silver instead. It's cheaper and you make a lot more money
PROFESSIONAL GAMER - SEND ME OFFERS TO JOIN YOUR TEAM - USA USA USA
fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
October 24 2008 01:40 GMT
#9
Well, there is an interesting thing going on in the market right now with physical metals. Basically they are becoming disconnected with their paper counterparts. Essentially, the spot price you see listed on the markets isn't the actual price.

The reason for this is that many hedge funds are under extreme pressure right now, in fact a lot of people are under pressure, and to keep themselves afloat they must liquidate their commodities (like the article in the OP is explaining).

When they liquidate their commodities, they are selling their paper, they don't actually have physical metal. Well then the market becomes flooded with paper, much more than there is actual metal. So now there is a disequilibrium. The best way to find out if you are paying too much for physical metal is to check the prices on ebay.

I think right now, at least for silver (which goes for 50% than its spot price) is mainly a shortage of minting facilities as opposed to a shortage of metal. They can't produce enough coins to satisfy the demand and therefore the price you pay for physical has a huge premium. Normal supply and demand don't apply here because the market is flooded with paper.

In fact, many people are right now buying paper and taking delivery, which takes several months. What that means is that in several months there will be extreme pressure on COMEX (silver paper market) to come up with the goods. If it turns out that COMEX doesn't have enough metal to back all these deliveries, and they do things like delay or pay out the cash equivilent instead of bullion, the paper market could theoretically collapse.

So what I'm saying is don't let the huge premiums right now deter you. If the paper market falls through prices will skyrocket. Don't think it can't happen in these economic conditions. (I agree that that particular site is very high though. APMEX has physical bars for only about $280 - $300).
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
October 27 2008 06:19 GMT
#10
Looks like they want to take more of our money. They are now wanting to cut tax breaks for 401(k)s. This is the beginning of the nationalization of 401(k)s. The proposal is to take 5% out of everyone's paycheck and give everyone a 401(k).

I don't participate in my company's 401(k) because I know that by the time I'm 65 that money will have been nationalized a long time ago. There is a big pot of money there and I don't believe the government will (or have much choice) to keep their hands off of it.

http://www.workforce.com/section/00/article/25/83/58.php

---

The following article is about Europe being on the verge of bankruptcy. While the US is dealing with the subprime crisis, many European banks have made loans to developing nations that aren't going so well. It is in fact a lot more exposure than the subprime crisis.

The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.

They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.

Europe has already had its first foretaste of what this may mean. Iceland’s demise has left them nursing likely losses of $74bn (£47bn). The Germans have lost $22bn.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, says the emerging market crash is a vastly underestimated risk. It threatens to become “the second epicentre of the global financial crisis”, this time unfolding in Europe rather than America.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3260052/Europe-on-the-brink-of-currency-crisis-meltdown.html

Currently Eastern Europe is putting the most pressure on European banks, which leads to the next article.

Russia's risk of national default is now greater than Iceland's:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/3248672/Russian-default-risk-tops-Iceland-as-crisis-deepens-financial-crisis.html
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
October 30 2008 08:40 GMT
#11
Large banks are shamelessly profiteering with the bailout money during our economic crisis. Instead of making loans with the money, which is what it was for, they are hoarding it and buying up all the low priced assets of various failed/stressed banks and companies.

Here is an article about it. Disgusting and shameful.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/business/25nocera.html?_r=2&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-11-02 10:43:41
November 02 2008 10:39 GMT
#12
The IRS is now cracking down on people's swiss bank accounts. Like the talk about 401(k) plans from my previous post, I think a lot of things will be cracked down on.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/31/AR2008103103727_pf.html

--

Here is an article written by Jim Willie talking about the potential collapse of the COMEX market. He discusses the details of the advice I was giving alpskomleko about not letting the large premiums necessarily deter you from buying physical as opposed to paper.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/1030.html

His article is good as usual. Towards the end he has some links to video interviews of some people. And also about in vast inflation he believes is coming.

--

Headline: Goldman Sachs takes $12B Bailout, Hands out $14B Bonuses

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1081624/Goldman-Sachs-ready-hand-7BILLION-salary-bonus-package--6bn-bail-out.html

--

Also, whats this? Obama talking about a civilian force to protect our national security, just as well funded as the military? The original video this was from is listed on this video's youtube description, talking about peacecorps. But just the very thought that it could possibly mean something else is alarming.
+ Show Spoiler +
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
November 02 2008 22:50 GMT
#13
Its getting worse in Europe.

`Panic' Strikes East Europe Borrowers as Banks Cut Franc Loans
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=awd1vGnyyBJQ&refer=home
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
November 03 2008 07:26 GMT
#14
Here is a little piece on gold production place in germany. Thought it was interesting.

Gold Supply Shortages in Germany

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Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-11-04 13:15:36
November 04 2008 13:14 GMT
#15
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
NastyMarine
Profile Blog Joined May 2006
United States1252 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-11-04 16:29:32
November 04 2008 16:27 GMT
#16
On October 23 2008 17:14 fight_or_flight wrote:
I find this article below quite intriguing. It is a 67 page document which attempts to prove that Obama uses hypnosis techniques to manipulate large groups of people at a subconscious level.

http://www.dark-truth.net/files/Obama's_Use_of_Hidden_Hypnosis_techniques_in_His_Speeches.pdf

I personally have found myself mesmerized during some of Obama's speeches. This document explains what conversational hypnosis is and how Obama's wordplay, rhythm, gestures, tone, etc, are based upon known principles of such hypnosis.

What is also strange is that the article itself seems to by written in a hypnotic way. It keeps repeating things over and over. It has these big bold headings at the top and bottom of each page.

Very interesting overall, especially learning about these hypnotic techniques.


ROFL. No doubt a true conservative wrote that.

Look man. Anyone could find hypnosis, or any style of speech communication in things like this. You know what it really is? Its a man that knows what hes saying, and can get it across to his viewers by be charming and straight foward. If you want to say anything about tricky word usage or misleading wordplay than look directly at John McCain. Whom of which has directly been a fucking tard throughout his whole campaign reaching so he can try to gain an edge.

So Hypnosis you say (Obama)? How about, moron (McCain)?

Its not hard to be genuine and charming - especially when you have a well thought out/organized game plan and speech.
Treatin' fools since '87
fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-11-06 09:34:01
November 06 2008 09:29 GMT
#17
On November 06 2008 15:51 Zelc wrote:
From September, but I couldn't find another topic on this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/14/AR2008091402375_pf.html

Show nested quote +
Bullock and others have also shown that some refutations can strengthen misinformation, especially among conservatives.

Political scientists Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler provided two groups of volunteers with the Bush administration's prewar claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. One group was given a refutation -- the comprehensive 2004 Duelfer report that concluded that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction before the United States invaded in 2003. Thirty-four percent of conservatives told only about the Bush administration's claims thought Iraq had hidden or destroyed its weapons before the U.S. invasion, but 64 percent of conservatives who heard both claim and refutation thought that Iraq really did have the weapons. The refutation, in other words, made the misinformation worse.

A similar "backfire effect" also influenced conservatives told about Bush administration assertions that tax cuts increase federal revenue. One group was offered a refutation by prominent economists that included current and former Bush administration officials. About 35 percent of conservatives told about the Bush claim believed it; 67 percent of those provided with both assertion and refutation believed that tax cuts increase revenue.

In a paper approaching publication, Nyhan, a PhD student at Duke University, and Reifler, at Georgia State University, suggest that Republicans might be especially prone to the backfire effect because conservatives may have more rigid views than liberals: Upon hearing a refutation, conservatives might "argue back" against the refutation in their minds, thereby strengthening their belief in the misinformation. Nyhan and Reifler did not see the same "backfire effect" when liberals were given misinformation and a refutation about the Bush administration's stance on stem cell research.

Bullock, Nyhan and Reifler are all Democrats.

Reifler questioned attempts to debunk rumors and misinformation on the campaign trail, especially among conservatives: "Sarah Palin says she was against the Bridge to Nowhere," he said, referring to the pork-barrel project Palin once supported before she reversed herself. "Sending those corrections to committed Republicans is not going to be effective, and they in fact may come to believe even more strongly that she was always against the Bridge to Nowhere."

I wonder if there's a hidden variable or something that causes this effect. Or perhaps it was the specific examples used or the degree of their partisanship? Anyone want to see if they can find the paper and comb through it for any problems?


Interesting article.

(http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=81742)

---

Here is a 30 minute video with a guy talking about economics. Pretty interesting, he gives a whole overview of everything leading up to our current economic problems, and what he believes will happen. Quite interesting.



---

Chinese bank gets bailed out.....$19 billion

http://endthebailouts.com/2008/11/06/chinese-not-immune-to-government-bailouts/
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
November 07 2008 08:55 GMT
#18
Putin may become president again.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081106/ap_on_re_eu/eu_russia_president_s_term
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-11-11 09:23:00
November 11 2008 09:04 GMT
#19
The FED made $2 trillion in emergency loans but they refuse to tell who they made the loans to.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aatlky_cH.tY&refer=worldwide

How is this possible? How can they just do that?

---

For anyone who hasn't heard, the big 3 automakers are requestion government bailout money. Big story, plenty of articles about it, heres one:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=081111001615.g5irg0ui&show_article=1


---

AIG needs just got $150 billion more for their bailout.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLAOKeHG_AM4&refer=worldwide

Just more unbelievable news...

---

A congressman from Georgia is warning of a Marxist Obama threat. I haven't really posted it till now, but I completely agree with him.

http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/110808/met_482679.shtml

Obama was the most liberal senator in his very short time in office. He has a secretive and questionable past. He is appointing the same old people.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10860

I think its pretty pointless to argue about this topic right now, I'm just posting it for future reference.

So much stuff going on in the world right now.
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
November 13 2008 09:18 GMT
#20
This is such BS. But unfortunately its the direction we are headed under obama.

http://www.newswithviews.com/patriot/patriotism6.htm

+ Show Spoiler +
WHERE WE'RE HEADED




By Robert A. Waters
April 7, 2003
NewsWithViews.com

You're sound asleep when you hear a thump outside your bedroom door. Half awake, and nearly paralyzed with fear, you hear muffled whispers. At least two people have broken into your house and are moving your way.


With your heart pumping, you reach down beside your bed and pick up your shotgun. You rack a shell into the chamber, then inch toward the door and open it. In the darkness, you make out two shadows. One holds something that looks like a crowbar. When the intruder brandishes it as if to strike, you raise the shotgun and fire. The blast knocks both thugs to the floor.

One writhes and screams while the second man crawls to the front door and lurches outside. As you pick up the telephone to call police, you know you're in trouble. In your country, most guns were outlawed years before, and the few that are privately owned are so stringently regulated as to make them useless. Yours was never registered.

Police arrive and inform you that the second burglar has died. They arrest you for First Degree Murder and Illegal Possession of a Firearm. When you talk to your attorney, he tells you not to worry: authorities will probably plea the case down to manslaughter. "What kind of sentence will I get?" you ask. "Only ten-to-twelve years," he replies, as if that's nothing. "Behave yourself, and you'll be out in seven."

The next day, the shooting is the lead story in the local newspaper. Somehow, you're portrayed as an eccentric vigilante while the two men you shot are represented as choir boys. Their friends and relatives can't find an unkind word to say about them. Buried deep down in the article, authorities acknowledge that both "victims" have been arrested numerous times. But the next day's headline says it all: "Lovable Rogue Son Didn't Deserve to Die." The thieves have been transformed from career criminals into Robin Hood-type pranksters.

As the days wear on, the story takes wings. The national media picks it up, then the international media. The surviving burglar has become a folk hero.

Your attorney says the thief is preparing to sue you, and he'll probably win. The media publishes reports that your home has been burglarized several times in the past and that you've been critical of local police for their lack of effort in apprehending the suspects. After the last break-in, you told your neighbor that you would be prepared next time.

The District Attorney uses this to allege that you were lying in wait for the burglars.

A few months later, you go to trial. The charges haven't been reduced, as your lawyer had so confidently predicted. When you take the stand, your anger at the injustice of it all works against you. Prosecutors paint a picture of you as a mean, vengeful man. It doesn't take long for the jury to convict you of all charges.

The judge sentences you to life in prison.

This case really happened.

On August 22, 1999, Tony Martin of Emneth, Norfolk, England, killed one burglar and wounded a second. In April, 2000, he was convicted and is now serving a life term.

How did it become a crime to defend one's own life in the once great British Empire?

It started with the Pistols Act of 1903. This seemingly reasonable law forbade selling pistols to minors or felons and established that handgun sales were to be made only to those who had a license.

The Firearms Act of 1920 expanded licensing to include not only handguns but all firearms except shotguns.

Later laws passed in 1953 and 1967 outlawed the carrying of any weapon by private citizens and mandated the registration of all shotguns.

Momentum for total handgun confiscation began in earnest after the Hungerford mass shooting in 1987. Michael Ryan, a mentally disturbed man with a Kalashnikov rifle, walked down the streets shooting everyone he saw. When the smoke cleared, 17 people were dead.

The British public, already de-sensitized by eighty years of "gun control", demanded even tougher restrictions. (The seizure of all privately owned handguns was the objective even though Ryan used a rifle.)

Nine years later, at Dunblane, Scotland, Thomas Hamilton used a semi-automatic weapon to murder 16 children and a teacher at a public school.

For many years, the media had portrayed all gun owners as mentally unstable, or worse, criminals.

Now the press had a real kook with which to beat up law-abiding gun owners. Day after day, week after week, the media gave up all pretense of objectivity and demanded a total ban on all handguns. The Dunblane Inquiry, a few months later, sealed the fate of the few sidearms still owned by private citizens. During the years in which the British government incrementally took away most gun rights, the notion that a citizen had the right to armed self-defense came to be seen as vigilantism. Authorities refused to grant gun licenses to people who were threatened, claiming that self-defense was no longer considered a reason to own a gun. Citizens who shot burglars or robbers or rapists were charged while the real criminals were released.

Indeed, after the Martin shooting, a police spokesman was quoted as saying, "We cannot have people take the law into their own hands." All of Martin's neighbors had been robbed numerous times, and several elderly people were severely injured in beatings by young thugs who had no fear of the consequences. Martin himself, a collector of antiques, had seen most of his collection trashed or stolen by burglars.

When the Dunblane Inquiry ended, citizens who owned handguns were given three months to turn them over to local authorities. Being good British subjects, most people obeyed the law. The few who didn't were visited by police and threatened with ten-year prison sentences if they didn't comply. Police later bragged that they'd taken nearly 200,000 handguns from private citizens. How did the authorities know who had handguns?

The guns had been registered and licensed. Kinda like cars.

Sound familiar?

WAKE UP AMERICA, THIS IS WHY OUR FOUNDING FATHERS PUT THE SECOND AMENDMENT IN OUR CONSTITUTION.

"..It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds.."
--Samuel Adams

© 2003 Robert A. Waters - All Rights Reserve


btw in other news, if you haven't already heard, gun sales have spiked with the election of obama

http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/11/11/obama.gun.sales/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
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