• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 19:35
CEST 01:35
KST 08:35
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Summer's End9Serral wins HomeStory Cup 2915Serral wins Maestros of the Game 244ByuL, and the Limitations of Standard Play3Team Liquid Map Contest #22: Results and Winners7
Community News
Weekly Cups (August 10-16): SHIN doubles2GSTL Returns in 2026!45Weekly Cups (Aug 3-9): Protoss get shut out7RSL goes to London! 2026 Offline Finals Nov 21-2212Weekly Cups (July 27-Aug 2): SHIN's big week0
StarCraft 2
General
Geoff 'iNcontroL' Robinson has passed away GSTL Returns in 2026! SC4ALL II: SC2 Player Announcement 6/8 - Maru Balance hotfix patch 5.0.16b (July 16) Serral wins Maestros of the Game 2
Tourneys
PIG STY FESTIVAL 8.0! (13 - 23 August) Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament SC2 AI Tournament 2026 Fall 2026 GSTL Announcement Master Swan Open (Global Bronze-Master 2)
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
Nexus Wars 2021 GUIDE [M] (2) Industrial Park
External Content
The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 539 Thunder Dome Mutation # 538 Media Blackout Mutation # 537 Hostile Territory
Brood War
General
Pros React To: First 'Fastest' Map in ASL History ASL22 General Discussion BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ BW General Discussion Looking 4 Yaroslav: Enemy, Korchagin, WCG, Ukraine
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL22] Ro24 Group B Toronto invitational lan 22 august [ASL22] Ro24 Group A
Strategy
Odyssey Mineral Stack Saturation Fighting Spirit mining rates Any training maps people recommend? Simple Questions, Simple Answers
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread General RTS Discussion Thread Anyone here play Quakeworld back in the day? Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread EVE Corporation
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish TSM pausing esports and CLG Dead
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Power Rank TL Mafia Community Thread NeO.D_StephenKing vs This Guy From 1 Million Dance
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Dating: How's your luck? Artificial Intelligence Thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread The Letting Off Steam Thread
Fan Clubs
The Creator Fan Club MarineLorD Fan Club The ShoWTimE Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! Anime Discussion Thread
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread MLB/Baseball 2023 TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 NBA General Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread Simple Questions Simple Answers FPS when play League Of Legend on laptop
TL Community
The Automated Ban List Northern Ireland Global Starcraft
Blogs
Young Players Exit Esports E…
TrAiDoS
LOCKPICKING NOOB
LUCKY_NOOB
Cathedral Of CS And NY pizza a…
FuDDx
Please support my new stand…
Peanutsc
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 5631 users

SC2 Post-starleague Balance Report

Blogs > Ej_
Post a Reply
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 15:27:50
October 16 2017 15:40 GMT
#1
Nearing Blizzcon, with both SSL and GSL finished, it's the most proper time to reflect on the winrates in Korea. Thankfuly, the amazing liquipedia editors keep map statistics updated in both starleagues so we can even see which maps favor what race.

In the following summary I will be using these pages:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2017_Global_StarCraft_II_League_Season_3/Code_S_Statistics
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2017_StarCraft_II_StarLeague_Season_2/Premier_Statistics
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2017_StarCraft_II_StarLeague_Season_2/Challenge_Statistics

I decided to exclude ST 2 as it, despite providing a fairly interesting sample size, didn't feature matchup statistics on liquipedia. Maybe another day . Worth to mention that it was won by a Zerg player, while Protoss and Terran split the starleagues.

Let's start with GSL:
2017 GSL Season3


Qualified players:
(9) Classic, Dear, herO, Hurricane, Hush,, Patience, sOs, Stats, Trap
(13) GuMiho, Maru, aLive, Bunny, ByuN, Forte, INnoVation, jjakji, Keen, mx Special, Ryung, cn TIME, TY
(10) soO, Curious, Dark, Elazer, Leenock, Losira, ca NoRegreT, Rogue, ca Scarlett, Solar

Overall winrates:
vs 16-17 (48,5%)
vs 25-24 (51%)
vs 21-23 (47,7%)

Incredibly close results in all matchups, the Terran race lagging behind in both TvP and TvZ can be easily explained with their overrepresentation in ro32 and quick elimination of the outliers going into the ro16 (Only 6 out of the 13 advanced, notable dropouts: Maru with 0-4 vs jjakji and Solar and Ryung, with 0-2 vs INnoVation and combined 3-2 vs Hurricane).

The maps behind GSL's succes?
(Wiki)Abyssal Reef, (Wiki)Ascension to Aiur, (Wiki)Frost, (Wiki)Newkirk Precinct, (Wiki)Odyssey, (Wiki)Proxima Station, (Wiki)Whirlwind, (Wiki)Acolyte, (Wiki)Mech Depot

Notable outliers in terms of winrate (maps where the winning race had an advantage of at least 3 games; matchups where 1 race exceeds 80% WR are underlined):
(Wiki)Abyssal Reef. vs 7-4 (63.6%), vs 2-6 (25%)
(Wiki)Newkirk Precinct vs 2-5 (28.6%), vs 1-4 (20%)
(Wiki)Acolyte vs 0-3 (0%)
(Wiki)Mech Depot vs 0-4 (0%)
(Wiki)Ascension to Aiur vs 7-1 (87,5%)
(Wiki)Odyssey vs 6-1 (85.7%)
(Wiki)Proxima Station vs 2-5 (28.6%)

Comment worthy is the domination of Protoss on Odyssey, the only Terran to beat Protoss there was Bunny vs Dear. Zerg obliterating Protoss on Ascension shouldn't be much of a surprise, but their record on Mech Depot and acolyte vs Terran is a sign of the hydra bane era.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

2017 SSL Season 3: Premier


Qualified players:
(4) Classic, Dear, herO, Stats
(3) Maru, INnoVation, aLive
(3) Dark, Solar, ByuL

Overall winrates:
vs 24-29 (45,3%)
vs 18-10 (64,3%)
vs 12-11 (52,2%)


SSL is a more interesting league in terms of data analysis, because of its round robin format, allowing to collect data of ALL matchups, providing a much better sample, despite smaller sample size.
Protoss proves once again to be the leading race, with 3 of the top 4 players representing Aiur. Interestingly enough, the bottom 3 players of the league, ByuL, aLive and herO represented all 3 races. Terran seems to get the short stick overall with their abyssmal TvP record and 0 players in the playoffs.

SSL Map pool
(Wiki)Abyssal Reef, (Wiki)Odyssey, (Wiki)Ascension to Aiur, (Wiki)Frost, (Wiki)Newkirk Precinct, (Wiki)Whirlwind, (Wiki)Overgrowth

Notable outliers:
(Wiki)Abyssal Reef vs 2-5 (28,6%), v 7-1 (87,5%)
(Wiki)Odyssey vs 5-2 (71.4%)
(Wiki)Ascension to Aiur vs 5-8 (38,5%), vs 5-1 (83,3%)
(Wiki)Frost vs 3-0 (100%)
(Wiki)Newkirk Precinct vs 3-8 (27.3%)
(Wiki)Whirlwind vs 0-3 (0%)

Comments: the winning record of Protoss vs Zerg on Ascension comes as a surprise, and most likely the effect of the birth of mass oracle. At the same time, Newkirk and Abyssal made sure to keep the race lying low while Terrans remained virtually dead on Abyssal and Ascension, WW not helping out. Fun fact: 4 of the TvP losses on Abyssal is aLive picking the map himself and losing.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

2017 SSL Season 3: Challenge


Qualified players:
(4) sOs, Zest, Patience, Hush
(3) Byun, Bunny, jjakji
(3) Impact, Rogue, soO

Overall winrates:
vs 10-4 (71,4%)
vs 3-12 (20%)
vs 28-24 (53,8%)

No sugarcoating this: the statitics point out, that despite highest representation, all 4 Protoss players SUCKED in SSL Challenge. In fact, they netted themselves the 4 last spots. Yes, the 2016 GSL winner Zest and the 2017 GSL finalist sOs placed behind jjakji and Impact. So, why was that?

Notable outliers:
(Wiki)Abyssal Reef vs 8-3 (72,7%), v 0-3 (0%)
(Wiki)Odyssey vs 1-4 (80%%)
(Wiki)Ascension to Aiur vs 2-7 (22.2%)

PvT in Challenge becomes a nightmare on the maps that were favorable in Premier. Interestingly, despite the overall losing winrate, Zerg wrecks Terran on Ascension to Aiur.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

OVERALL STARLEAGUE STATISTICS




vs 50-50 (50%)
vs 46-46 (50%)
vs 61-58 (51,3%)



Amazingly enough, both Protoss matchups were PERFECTLY balanced and the ZvT was only by 1,3 percent point off the perfect balance (3 maps in 119 played).
Despite Protoss massively underperforming in SSL Challenge, it seems that their records in SSL Premier and GSL were enough to elevate the race to reasonable winrates.

Since the Korean leagues use different maps to the ladder, let's look at the maps used in both starleagues.

_______________________TvZ_______________ZvP_______________PvT______
(Wiki)Abyssal Reef...........19-10 (65,5%)..................5-12 (29,4%).............13-11 (54,5%)
(Wiki)Ascension to Aiur....7-11 (38,9%)...................14-10 (58.3%)............9-9 (50%)
(Wiki)Odyssey...................8-5 (61,5%)....................12-5 (70,6%)..............9-8 (52,9%)
(Wiki)Newkirk Precinct*.....6-9 (40%)........................6-13 (31,6%).............4-4 (50%)
(Wiki)Frost*........................6-6 (50%)....................... 4-1 (80%)..................2-1 (66,7%)

Newkirk Precinct and Frost, as marked with the bolded asterix, are the only 2 of these maps that weren't featured on the ladder at the time.
Bolded are the matchups where one of the races reached 60% WR or above, Out of these, only PvT on Frost with a sample of only 3 games seems largely irrelevant to any balance statements on the map itself.
Zerg's overwhelming power (and especially power of hydra bane) is well known on Oddyssey and Ascension to Aiur
Interesting seems to be ZvP on Newkirk Precinct, where Zerg holds horrible 6-13 record and, despite that, Zerg players chose to play the map instead of vetoing it. Similar case occurs in TvZ on the map.
Another interesting thing is the TvZ winrate on Abyssal, where Koreans Zergs seemed to struggly greatly. With with hydra bane, it's interesting how the map will play out at Blizzcon.
ZvP on Abyssal also seemed to be a torture, partially because of the mass oracle playstyle that developed in later months of the leagues.





*****
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
October 16 2017 15:55 GMT
#2
Also this confirms INnoVation wins only when Terran is the strongest race.
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16955 Posts
October 16 2017 19:00 GMT
#3
Cool statistics. There weren't enough games for statistically significant per map analysis though imo, especially when you consider the bias introduced by players vetoing maps.
DieuCure
Profile Joined January 2017
France3713 Posts
October 18 2017 08:44 GMT
#4
On October 17 2017 00:55 Ej_ wrote:
Also this confirms INnoVation wins only when Terran is the strongest race.


Yes , he is abusing the huge imba, unlike Mvp
TL+ Member
bduddy
Profile Joined May 2012
United States1326 Posts
October 18 2017 10:16 GMT
#5
I used http://appincredible.com/online/coin-flipper/ to flip 20 coins a bunch of times.

9-11
11-9
13-7
4-16
11-9
12-8
16-4
8-12
15-5
12-8
11-9
10-10

Imagine these are map winrates. Do they look balanced to you?! Well... they are. Drawing conclusions based on a sample size like this, especially at a ridiculously low threshold of 60%, is absurd and pointless. There is simply no evidence that this is down to anything but random chance (which doesn't mean that they are all perfectly balanced, either - it just means nothing)
>Liquid'Nazgul: Of course you are completely right
Executer08
Profile Joined June 2015
Germany163 Posts
October 18 2017 10:24 GMT
#6
Fun fact: 4 of the TvP losses on Abyssal is aLive picking the map himself and losing.


lol, frigging aLive scewing the statistics on purpose kek.

On October 17 2017 04:00 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
Cool statistics. There weren't enough games for statistically significant per map analysis though imo, especially when you consider the bias introduced by players vetoing maps.


for more games you would have to look further into the past and then you have to also consider meta changes and stuff like that in the analysis. you arent gonna get as much data as you'd need for statistical significance because you'd have too many other factors with influence on the result. this is just a look at the "best" data we have available in prospect of blizzcon
"You have the image of being a robotic, stoic player among foreign fans. What do you think about that?" - "I don’t think it’s incorrect." || letodSWAG
Vedeynevin
Profile Joined February 2015
United States431 Posts
October 18 2017 12:08 GMT
#7
Very interesting. Btw, you have the ascension to aiur zvt stat listed as 7-11 (28.9%) when 7/11= 63.6
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 20:51:48
October 18 2017 15:27 GMT
#8
On October 18 2017 19:16 bduddy wrote:
I used http://appincredible.com/online/coin-flipper/ to flip 20 coins a bunch of times.

9-11
11-9
13-7
4-16
11-9
12-8
16-4
8-12
15-5
12-8
11-9
10-10

Imagine these are map winrates. Do they look balanced to you?! Well... they are. Drawing conclusions based on a sample size like this, especially at a ridiculously low threshold of 60%, is absurd and pointless. There is simply no evidence that this is down to anything but random chance (which doesn't mean that they are all perfectly balanced, either - it just means nothing)

This is obviously all correct, but it's also the best we can do. And it does allow you to track performance of given race on given map. In fact, this entire blog was prompted by Zerg constantly losing to Protoss on Newkirk and my interest in the winrates on all maps .
I'd say that Abyssal and Ascension winrates reflect the balance on the maps quite accurately (as they should do, with the most games played). The rest is just a "why not?" and more of a fun fact than anything.
On October 18 2017 19:24 Executer08 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2017 04:00 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
Cool statistics. There weren't enough games for statistically significant per map analysis though imo, especially when you consider the bias introduced by players vetoing maps.


for more games you would have to look further into the past and then you have to also consider meta changes and stuff like that in the analysis. you arent gonna get as much data as you'd need for statistical significance because you'd have too many other factors with influence on the result. this is just a look at the "best" data we have available in prospect of blizzcon

That I agree 100% with.
On October 18 2017 21:08 Vedeynevin wrote:
Very interesting. Btw, you have the ascension to aiur zvt stat listed as 7-11 (28.9%) when 7/11= 63.6

It's 7 wins to 11 losses. 7/18=38.9% You actually found a typo tho :D
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
October 18 2017 15:49 GMT
#9
Here's some more statistics for everyone:

SERIES WINRATE IN STARLEAGUES


2017 GSL Season 3

Ro32
v 3-5 || v 8-3 || v 8-5
Ro16
v 2-0 || v 3-2 || v 0-2
Playoffs
v 0-2 || v 0-1 || v 1-1
TOTAL
v 5-7 || v 11-6 || v 9-8

2017 SSL Season 3

Premier
v 5-10 || v 8-3 || v 5-4
Challenge phase 1
v 4-2 || v 0-6 || v 3-1
Challenge phase 2
v 0-0 || v 0-0 || v 4-4
TOTAL
v 9-12 || v 8-9 || v 12-9



STARLEAGUE TOTAL

v 14-19 (42,4%)
v 19-15 (55,9%)
v 21-17 (55,3%)



Interestingly enough, while game winrates were virtually even, Protoss outperformed Terran and Zerg. That lies in line with Terranless playoffs of SSL and no Zerg starleague champion this season.

"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
Edowyth
Profile Joined October 2010
United States183 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 15:59:47
October 18 2017 15:57 GMT
#10
On October 19 2017 00:27 Ej_ wrote:
This is obviously all correct, but it's also the best we can do.


No, it's not. You just have to consider games other than Korean pro-league games to get a larger sample size.

As much hype as people like to build around Koreans, they're supported by players who aren't playing in those leagues and there is *tons* of data available if you're willing to remove the requirement that the players be the top ~32 in the world.

While people will say "balance can only be determined at the top", I'd argue that the top players are so good that they will make nearly anything look balanced by abusing the best possible chances they have to win. Pulling the boys in HotS made TvP actually balanced but no one, at any level, really enjoyed the game-play during that time.

There are many similar things happening today, but no changes are made because the focus is so tightly upon the Korean scene. Mass oracle should have been nerfed weeks, if not months ago. Protoss should have received something versus hydra / bane / ling months ago.

Ultimately, if the game isn't fun and engaging for all players the pro scene will continue to shrink.

The data we should be considering is ladder, or all tournament, data. Get a significant sample-size first, that represents an actually significant portion of the games played daily, then we can talk about the state of the game. Here's one example of such a sample: http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/. Once the next design patch hits and the Protoss win-rates for the entire expansion (other than at the highest Korean level) remain in the dirt across the board, I wonder whether Blizzard will try to change their strategy for Protoss (which is their greatest failing of LotV by these numbers) or if we'll see more status-quo-ante -- as long as the Korean numbers look "okay" like this article posts, nothing changes.
"Q. How do I check a valid [e-]mail address? A. You can't, at least, not in real time. Bummer, eh?" /r/programming
Of course, you could just send them a validation email.
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
October 18 2017 16:16 GMT
#11
The reason I blogged this is exactly, because Aligulac rates good players and foreigners the same
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
Edowyth
Profile Joined October 2010
United States183 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 18:12:31
October 18 2017 18:11 GMT
#12
Well, so long as you realize that your 'evidence' is useless simply because there isn't enough of it, I guess it's fine to point out whatever coincidences you enjoy seeing. Calling it a balance report, though, is more than a little stretched.
"Q. How do I check a valid [e-]mail address? A. You can't, at least, not in real time. Bummer, eh?" /r/programming
Of course, you could just send them a validation email.
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
October 18 2017 18:33 GMT
#13
:DDDD
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
PSISTORM Gaming Misc
23:00
FSL s11 - code S championships
Freeedom27
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
NeuroSwarm 135
ProTech128
ViBE123
JuggernautJason23
Dota 2
XaKoH 683
monkeys_forever228
League of Legends
Doublelift4904
Counter-Strike
minikerr35
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King85
Other Games
gofns22241
summit1g8024
FrodaN495
C9.Mang0327
ROOTCatZ159
Livibee86
Trikslyr52
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick692
BasetradeTV22
[ Show 12 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• davetesta3
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• Pr0nogo 1
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Other Games
• Scarra1123
• imaqtpie1023
Upcoming Events
CranKy Ducklings
10h 25m
PiG Sty Festival
12h 25m
Zoun vs Solar
SHIN vs Maru
Patches Events
16h 25m
Sparkling Tuna Cup
1d 10h
PiG Sty Festival
1d 12h
TBD vs Reynor
Serral vs TBD
OSC
1d 16h
Afreeca Starleague
2 days
hero vs ggaemo
Larva vs Mong
The Patches Monday
2 days
Afreeca Starleague
3 days
Soulkey vs PianO
JyJ vs sSak
GSL
3 days
[ Show More ]
PiGosaur Cup
4 days
Replay Cast
4 days
Afreeca Starleague
4 days
Mini vs Calm
Queen vs EffOrt
Replay Cast
5 days
The PondCast
5 days
IntoTheTV X SOOP
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-08-19
CranK Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League
Eternal Conflict S2 Finale

Ongoing

KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 3
K-JUNGMAN
ASL Season 22
Super Anchor Qualifying S3
CSL Season 22: Qualifier 1
Escore Tournament S3: W8
RSL Revival: Season 6
PiG Sty Festival 8.0
META DYMY #4
Esports World Cup 2026
Esports World Cup 2026: LCQ
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
IEM Cologne Major 2026

Upcoming

CSL Season 22: Qualifier 2
CSL 2026 AUTUMN (S22)
Acropolis #5
Acropolis #5 - TRS
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Acropolis #5 - GSA
Acropolis #5 - GSB
HSC XXX
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
Big Dog Cup 2026 Div 1
IEM Beijing 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.