[DAC EU] The balance of power

DAC Liquipedia

Given the madness that has overtaken the EU scene (and by extension the Americas) since TI4, there's been some substantial uncertainty over the alignment of power as of late. Former powerhouses have fallen to the wayside or near obscurity, while new looks have risen to not-quite-dominance-but-still-really-good. The pecking order has been partially established; in fact, given that the Dota 2 Asian Championship marks the first appearance of the latest reshuffles, it's probably too early to call it. I could even rhapsodize a while about the ever-evolving nature of competition and establish my intellectual cred by drawing on Darwinian theory about all of this crap, but I like to thing I'm not that pretentious.

Wait, too late.

Anyway, the DAC qualifiers are still pretty useful to a person like me that is moderately interested in the overall Dota 2 scene. Say what you will about the recent controversies about oversaturation, but for this fan at least, viewer fatigue has definitely set in. I only tune in to see my particular favorite players and how they're doing, and being a SingSing fanboy, not even that much anymore--my heart can barely take it. So the DAC offers something slightly more compelling than the myriad tournaments that have come and gone, barely remembered by the fans nor the players--a tantalizing taste of centrality. The DAC is a huge tournament, make no doubt about it.

(Side note: Liquid Dota rightfully should be criticized for having such threadbare coverage of this event. I really hope things improve from here on out, because switching to GosuGamers or joinDota kind of makes me queasy after having been with TL since 2008)

While some teams were left out (4ASC for instance might have been deserving of a chance), it's something of a relief to see such a large chunk of European teams duke it out in one bracket. Through the results, we can start to tease out where teams are relative to each other. Knowing that there's a lot of prestige and $$$money$$$ on the line, we can (hopefully) assume that the teams involved aren't taking this as just another tournament.

So, let's look at the EU bracket, despite it not having finished, and despite me having watched like one and a half games in total, which really delegitimizes what I'm trying to do here. After that we'll take a look at the entire EU scene in general and try to place things out.

Doing better than expected

Hellraisers
Considered to have been on the up-and-up for a little while, Hellraisers has finally made a big splash by reaching the finals via the winner's bracket, earning them a one-game advantage. They've worked through a Virtus Pro Classic (not sure how I feel about that name, but it seems like it's reached common usage already so whatever), Empire, and Power Rangers to get here, essentially burning a path through their fellow CIS brothers. I guess we should not here that 6 of the 8 teams in the bracket are CIS, which really undermines my thesis of a large bracket that allows us to tease out the balance of power in the EU scene. Oh well, sally forth anyway.

Whether Hellraisers will find dominance, or their strategies and tactics found out more quickly than they'd like is unknown, and probably could do with some more research on my part that I haven't done. Moving on.


Power Rangers
PR has long been a tier-2 team in the EU scene, having never really achieved any notable status other than not having dissolved as an organization. After having been gutted by the post-TI4 shuffle, PR is apparently doing better than I would've expected them to have. They've fallen to the loser's bracket to none other than Hellraisers, facing off against Na'Vi for the right to a rematch in the finals. Best of luck to them.


Na'Vi
Oh, how they've fallen. And yet, they seem to have found a little spark. What spark? I don't know, I haven't been watching. I'll let you know once I've skimmed some of the VODs later. Despite having posted mediocre to downright embarrassing results for almost the entirety of the post-TI4 period, here they are pushing their way through the loser's bracket, on the cusp of a chance to qualify for the largest non-International tournament and prove to the world that the Na'Vi name has only undergone some hibernation.

Not performing like I expected

Virtus Pro and Virtus Pro Polar
Both VP teams have occupied the EU scene for a while, placing solidly in many recent tournaments, but not playing well enough to win any notable events. VP Polar seems to have had the edge over their brothers recently, with Illidan's Medusa plinking away at her enemies. Despite their solid form, they've both been eliminated.

Quite meh

Empire
Always relevant but never truly dominant (their form around the run at Starladder 9 can't even count because they lost in the end, even if it was to The Greatest Team To Have Played Dota 2), Empire is has been eliminated. Sad violin.

Empire has never been a team I've focused on, so no commentary here. Sorry.


Alliance
The reorganization of the Kings of 2012 failed to bear any fruit, with EGM posting a disappointing performance on offlane just as many expected. Whether Bulldog's return would improve the situation is certainly up for debate, given some rumors of friction between him and Loda. The jury on the other non-readditions, Pajkatt and mynuts, is still out, despite the team's overall uninspiring performance.

S a d b o y s that's the last Twitch meme I'll ever use, I promise.

Team Tinker
The losers of every roster shuffle post-TI4, Tinker has performed to expectations. TT has long suffered from position mismatches, and the most recent shuffle hasn't alleviated them. Although Qojqva and SingSing had returned to their most comfortable 1 and 2 spots and Wayto returned to the pro scene at support, Arise in the offlane proved to be less than potent, and Bulba continued to struggle with support. Using Arise as a standin makes sense from a familiarity point of view--he consistently stacks with Sing on Sing's stream--but Arise lacks the experience and hero versatility to perform at the pro level. Despite my everlasting love for SingSing and affection for Bulba and Wayto (why did you guys ever leave TL ;( ), I can't help but say that they're doing terribly and I really hope they figure out their situation soon.

So...
...what to make of all of this? The EU scene's tumult is clearly far from over, whether in-game or in-roster. The recent announcements of Ninjas in Pajamas (former LAJONS) and Hanni stack (for the lack of a better name) could have some influence on how things will play out in the run up to TI5. I'm doubtful of whether we'll see another magical ascendance like Alliance in 2012. As we get farther and farther away from that star-crossed year, it becomes clearer that that team was truly a singular event.

Rather, today what we have is that Secret is a level above all comers, truly the only "elite" team occupying a tier of its own. This despite having had a reshuffle of their own so recently. Among the second-tier teams, CIS has tenuously gained the edge on Western Europe, if only because they have teams that have stayed together for longer than their counterparts in the west. Western Europe, on the other hand, continues to flail as its players attempt to find their footing. And they must do it soon: August, and Dota 2 glory, will be here sooner than any of them would like.

---