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[Brag] Apple

Blogs > GnarlyArbitrage
Post a Reply
GnarlyArbitrage
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
575 Posts
March 05 2013 19:06 GMT
#1
Apple hit the $420 mark yesterday. Bounced off today. Wonder if it will retrace upwards...

Why didn't you listen?
It's too late, it's too happening.
All is lost.

[image loading]

*
FromShouri
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
United States862 Posts
March 05 2013 19:17 GMT
#2
*yawn* let me know when it goes out of business, that way I can stop teaching people how to use garbage.
Limited Edition, lets do some simple addition, $50 for a T-Shirt is just some ignorant bitch shit.
Butterednuts
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States859 Posts
March 05 2013 19:24 GMT
#3
*obligatory 420 joke*

I never found following stocks to be interesting at all. Grats for getting a prediction right? Even a blind squirrel will find a nut someday.
Chameleons Cast No Shadows
P7GAB
Profile Joined June 2012
Canada486 Posts
March 05 2013 19:36 GMT
#4
pretty impressive, atta boy
MrRicewife
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada515 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-05 20:10:56
March 05 2013 20:05 GMT
#5
Do you trade options? Would you care sharing some predictions for May? I'm looking at $430s and $440s atm

also, last year I shorted nintendo at 13.77 but I'm out now. I made my money. I have been trying to find another stock for long term shorting. blackberry has been a gem of mine for a long time but i don't have the ability to watch my short every hour lol.. so im out of that too.
So? My dad can beat up your dad. - Jesus
Aerisky
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States12129 Posts
March 05 2013 20:20 GMT
#6
You could short the US dollar and invest in Swiss francs for their stability if you have a strong grasp of macro and are willing to venture into forex. Right now the currency is being devalued significantly.
Jim while Johnny had had had had had had had; had had had had the better effect on the teacher.
MrRicewife
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada515 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-05 20:45:10
March 05 2013 20:43 GMT
#7
On March 06 2013 05:20 Aerisky wrote:
You could short the US dollar and invest in Swiss francs for their stability if you have a strong grasp of macro and are willing to venture into forex. Right now the currency is being devalued significantly.

That's way outside my comfort zone. I've never traded currency and I fear I'll just end up burning myself way too much before I make any money.

Tbh though, I've heard what you just said for years and years. There is always some currency bandwagon to jump on. So when I do feel comfortable enough I am sure there will be an opportunity.

With that being said, I know you can make enormous amounts through forex. Right now, I learn through my buddies, personal trades, and a lot from investopedia.com

Is there any other websites you could point me towards?

edit: oh ya, and I've used this from time to time. at first I didn't think much of it, but a lot of guys there know what they are doing and usually brag about it, so it's free info. http://stocktwits.com/
So? My dad can beat up your dad. - Jesus
phiinix
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States1169 Posts
March 06 2013 04:33 GMT
#8
On March 06 2013 05:43 MrRicewife wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2013 05:20 Aerisky wrote:
You could short the US dollar and invest in Swiss francs for their stability if you have a strong grasp of macro and are willing to venture into forex. Right now the currency is being devalued significantly.

That's way outside my comfort zone. I've never traded currency and I fear I'll just end up burning myself way too much before I make any money.

Tbh though, I've heard what you just said for years and years. There is always some currency bandwagon to jump on. So when I do feel comfortable enough I am sure there will be an opportunity.

With that being said, I know you can make enormous amounts through forex. Right now, I learn through my buddies, personal trades, and a lot from investopedia.com

Is there any other websites you could point me towards?

edit: oh ya, and I've used this from time to time. at first I didn't think much of it, but a lot of guys there know what they are doing and usually brag about it, so it's free info. http://stocktwits.com/


If you're looking to get into currencies I definitely recommend checking out babypips. The school section has some good info on it and it's free, although if you're a technical trader a good portion of it will be review. Their forums section is decent, and i like that they have a chat room (although recently they were hacked and someone said there is still floating malware if you enter the chat room)
iamho
Profile Joined June 2009
United States3347 Posts
March 06 2013 04:45 GMT
#9
Trading forex is a terrible idea. Its a zero-sum game (unlike traditional equities and fixed income securities) and you're going to be competing with investment banks and hedge funds for nickels and pennies. Any profits you make will be tiny and will get eaten up by brokerage fees. Its so popular because everybody *thinks* they understand macro currents better than anyone else, but in the end all it takes is for one central bank chair in some faraway sovereign to ruin you. If you're still really interested in currency markets, then you should be trading options spreads on currency futures, the underlying currency itself is too difficult for any independent investor to have any long term success in. Just my 2 cents.
BrTarolg
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United Kingdom3574 Posts
March 06 2013 19:31 GMT
#10
One day i'll get around to writing a proper guide on basic spread/fly trading and how most guys in prop firms actually go about making money on an independent/scalping/daytrade level

Really tired of seeing all the forex crap lol
GnarlyArbitrage
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
575 Posts
March 06 2013 23:42 GMT
#11
@MrRiceWife

I haven't done options yet, but I am looking into them. I would say that Apple, if they can secure longevity through a solid business plan, could become undervalued within the year, but I don't have any concrete numbers right now.

Have you checked out forexfactory.com? If you do go there, I'd suggest only going to the Discussion and Journal forums.

@Aerisky

I'm personally going long the dollar since the new year. I think the USD will be going back up to $120 within the decade due to increased demand in the dollar from increased exports of oil and natural gas, among other things. An interesting pair to watch is the Eur/Chf.

@iamho

Can you explain why forex is a zero-sum game? If I buy a contract and my broker takes the other side, they may buy back that contract from a different broker, and place my exit with another customer. Wouldn't that negate the zero sum?

@BrTarolg

If you didn't notice, this prediction wasn't a daytrade. I find it funny you're "tired" of seeing "all this forex crap." lol
iamho
Profile Joined June 2009
United States3347 Posts
March 07 2013 00:44 GMT
#12
I don't quite understand your question directed at me. Its a zero-sum game in that you don't get rewarded for providing capital to the financial system, you're just gambling with contracts against other people. You don't have to "beat" anybody to make money in the equity or debt markets. You have to beat people in currency markets to make money, and the odds suck because you are playing against banks and corporations who are more knowledgeable and can basically trade for free. Anyways I'm guessing you know way more about forex than I do, so feel free to tell me if the stuff I'm saying is completely wrong..
GnarlyArbitrage
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
575 Posts
March 07 2013 01:49 GMT
#13
On March 07 2013 09:44 iamho wrote:
I don't quite understand your question directed at me. Its a zero-sum game in that you don't get rewarded for providing capital to the financial system, you're just gambling with contracts against other people. You don't have to "beat" anybody to make money in the equity or debt markets. You have to beat people in currency markets to make money, and the odds suck because you are playing against banks and corporations who are more knowledgeable and can basically trade for free. Anyways I'm guessing you know way more about forex than I do, so feel free to tell me if the stuff I'm saying is completely wrong..


I don't understand how you don't understand my question. How is forex a zero-sum game? If I were to buy one lot of Eur/Usd, my broker could either take the other side, or match the trade in-house. Now, if they were to either counter or match the contract, that party could then buy out of the position without me being part of it, or maybe they were buying out of a position anyway? Then, if I want to exit, I could actually be selling to someone who's buying into a position.

If the game were zero-sum, how would brokers make a profit? If I were to buy/sell, I'd be at a loss at entry because I'd have to make up my spread, unless I were making the market. If I were to win that position, yet someone lost the counter, they lost more than I made.
GnarlyArbitrage
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
575 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-07 02:09:15
March 07 2013 02:08 GMT
#14
This is a 20-year weekly chart of AAPL.
The two black lines are the two most plausible targets I can see right off the bat. ($200 and $80)
Price may go back up to $550, but any higher, and I'd be surprised.
Could take a few years to go all the way down to $80, or it could happen before the end of this year.
* Don't take this as advice *
[image loading]
phiinix
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States1169 Posts
March 07 2013 03:25 GMT
#15
IMO if you're not working for a bank who's job is to stop hunt retailers, you can't be certain of how the world of forex really works in terms of retail survivability. The fact is that some retail traders are really good at it and make a living off it it. The other fact is that it is by no means easy and far more people fail than succeed. I personally am of the opinion that retailers make up less than 2% of the market, which is already a few trillion large. It just doesn't seem logical to me for banks to be targeting small fish when they have their own agendas, namely maintaining their county's macroeconomic polices. For example, pull up a chart if a yen pair like usd/jpy or Eur/jpy. Fact: the Japanese benefit from having a cheaper currency due to the fact they are exporters. There are statements that they wanted the yen dollar around 90-95. If you're looking at a weekly chart starting from November when price took off, you can't really say retailers were being stop hunted on a large scale because it just didn't happen. Until ~94 price was literally parabolic on a daily chart. Anyone could have jumped on the bull wagon and made a profit. The boj wanted price to be in a certain range and made it happen because they could and wanted it eventually, not because retailers were all short.
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