EPTOn August 06 2011 08:04 HCastorp wrote:
You've basically stated that he called because he thought he had the best hand. That much is obvious. The question is, what led him to that belief?
You've basically stated that he called because he thought he had the best hand. That much is obvious. The question is, what led him to that belief?
Here's my take on it.
Preflop LV straddled and everyone folded to DB in the BB. He limped then called the pretty standard raise by LV. At this point, DB most likely has middle-ish holdings (low suited connectors, royal + number), as a bad hand would most be folded by DB out of position and a good hand would have either raised first or reraised.
On the flop, considering the range of hands DB might have, at best he has 45, or something with a 6 in it (although not including A6, 26, 36). With DB checking first, it reduces the likelihood of DB having a 6, as you would try to protect your 6 from being beat by an overcard.
On the turn, the jack hits. This is basically a scare card as DB can easily have from J7 to J10. So DB leads out with a potsized bet. Such a big raise reduces the chance that DB has a 6. From LV's POV, DB has either a slowplaying straight, a jack, possibly but not likely a 6 or nothing. LV decides to make the call, which is somewhat reasonable, although could get tricky at the end if he faces another big raise.
On the river, the 4 hits. This basically only affects 46, which hits two pair, or 56, which hits a straight. DB, knowing he can't win if he checks, puts another potsized bet. Considering how ragged the board is, it's tough for DB to lead out with jacks as LV could easily have made two pair or a straight. So basically DB is representing a straight or a really oddly played two pair, or a really oddly played jack. The two pair and jack are pretty unlikely, so basically its like a straight or nothing. And then LV made a judgement call, or maybe a read, and decided it was a bluff.
But this is all speculation.
