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I'm super hyped about MLG columbus. I think the players are super ready for this tournament and the fact that koreans are coming makes this LAN the most competitive tournament aside from GSL.
So, I try to be as objective as possible in my predictions mostly trying to rely on facts and numbers, but sometimes my bias will appear and you are welcome to disagree and post your own.
I encourage everyone to post their own predictions as well!
Championship Pool
Pool A
Naniwa 5-0
Slush 3-2
Drewbie 1-4
Gretorp 1-4
Moon 1-4
1st Seed(July) 4-1
Naniwa is ready and willing for MLG. He wants to prove to himself that he is the best player right now and winning his group is his first priority. For him, anything short of 1st place is a disappointment and it's hard to disagree. The rest of the field is a lower calibur of pro players. My prediction from the open bracket is July and he will definitely have a tough time against Naniwa, but everything else will be a roll-over
Pool B
KiwiKaki 5-0
Moonan 0-5
Sjow 1-4
Sheth 2-3
MMA 4-1
2nd Seed(Morrow) 3-2
Kiwikaki has shown that he is probably the best player other than idra in NA. His showings at IPL and other leagues have proven this. MMA has shown a weakness for protoss losing to Huk in the up/down matches and that is enough to get him to 2nd place. I have morrow coming 2nd in the open brackets, but he will prolly play tired against the rested players.
Pool C
Select 5-0
Idra 4-1
Ret 1-4
Tyler 0-5
MC 3-2
3rd Seed(TT1) 2-3
Once the group of death with Bomber, now it is the group of eternal damnation. Select does very well in short LANs with his solid play and excellent decision making. IdrA on the other hand is very unlikely to see any cheese (other than from TT1) and this will help him win every macro game except against select who will constantly deny IdrA's 4th from ever coming up. MC is an excellent player, but he hasn't played against select or IdrA and is unlikely to study his opponents therefore this will hurt his style. He will attempt to play macro games only to find out that both IdrA and select have excellent macro. TT1 will come in third from the open bracket, but have a tough time in this group of death.
Pool D
Incontrol 4-1
TLO 2-3
Haypro 1-4
Machine 0-5
Losira 5-0
4th Seed(dde) 3-2
This is probably the toughest group to call, but the first place will be without a doubt Losira. His ZvZ is excellent (11-3). His zvp gives protoss players nightmares and zvt is solid. I don't see him dropping a single game. Incontrol's odds are in his favor (except against losira). I don't see him losing to either machine or haypro. His toughest match will be against TLO and if he can win that he will get 2nd, otherwise I can see a possible 3 way tie for 2nd between incontrol, TLO and dde. Haypro at times is great, but no one in this group plays the way that would let haypro use his talents to their best. Haypro's best matchup is zvt and the only terran is TLO who plays anything but standard.
Finals Predictions. Predicting the winners of a tournament is super hard because there are so many factors involved. Here are my choices
4th place: MMA
He is an excellent player, but his weakness for protoss will show when he has to play MC, Naniwa and Kiwikaki. If the protoss get knocked out early, then MMA could easily be first place instead.
3rd place: Naniwa
AS much as he wants to win, I don't see him as a top 2 this time with the increased competition.
2nd place: Select
Select is an excellent player who has consitant solid results. I don't see him winning since he isn't well known for being first place in a lot of tournaments. Select IS the MKP of the foreign scene.
1st place: JulyZerg
You heard it first here. His style is so unorthadox, so different, his presence so scary, that most players will just utterly falter to him. Scouting him breaks all notions of current zerg play and he will use that to punish others. Also, he just won the CoH tournament to get here, he wants to win and he wants to win bad. July will lose his first series against Naniwa, but not any series after that.
Notes:
Thorzain will not make it to the championship bracket. He will likely get cheesed out in an early round. He might be the God of TSL, but his lack of experience at LANs in front of a huge audience playing against unknowns will hurt him significantly.
IdrA will fall to a terran after group play most likely a mediocore terran who does 2 rax pressure every game.
MC will disappoint most fans when he loses to a zerg. He will 4 gate every game and will lose when he can't utilize his micro advantage against a super prepared opponent. If you are a pro and reading this you should assume MC is going to 4 gate. MC ALWAYS 4 gates against opponents he is not familiar with or is losing a series.
Losira. I really really want Losira to win, but unfortunately think that he will lose a tvz against mma or select. If this was an all zerg tournament, he would win.
Those are my predictions, lets find out what really happens.
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JulyZerg and SelecT predictions are really bold. Agree with everything else tho.
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On June 03 2011 06:45 Crawler wrote:
JulyZerg and SelecT predictions are really bold. Agree with everything else tho.
Gotta be bold sometimes  I just think July's style will completely interrupt everyone else's play. if you play against players like Idra, ret, losira, etc all day and then suddenly July? It's like playing a difference race. Select is a tough call though I agree, but his play is soooo solid and his APM is insane. Also he plays terran which is the race that most rewards standard solid play.
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I want you to burn at stake for predicting Tyler going 0-5 ><
If anything, shit happens
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On June 03 2011 07:06 Zaphid wrote:
I want you to burn at stake for predicting Tyler going 0-5 ><
If anything, shit happens
If tyler was in any other group he would win at least 2-3 games. Really terrible luck.
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I think you underestimate Drewbie. He certainly won't beat naniwa or even july, but I think he stands a good chance against the rest of the group.
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Please everyone post your predictions too!
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Reaction:
Pool A - Pretty likely results
Pool B - MMA takes this or ties somehow with Kiwi. I would bet he takes it though. While each player in this pool isn't necessarily as scary as C overall is has the strongest lineup depending on who comes in from open. Sheth+Sjow+Moonan would basically scare me a little more than Ret and Tyler right now unfortunately 
Pool C - No way you can reasonably think SeleCT will 5-0 his group. Unless he owns Idra really early, he tends to play 1 dimensional towards him, and Idra usually wins. I see some weird 4-1 4-1 3-2 scenario here... and that is if TT1 makes this bracket, which i don't really think will happen.
Pool D - Agree Losira takes this group, and the rest is really in the air. I don't believe Incontrol does very well this time around... he played fairly cheezy last mlg and i don't see him getting very far with it this one. I think TLO could do well.
With Nani MC and Kiwi all at this event, I think we will have a protoss in top 3 for sure again, possibly 2. I also think all of the protoss do well against any top tier zerg save maybe Losira, so unless MMA SeleCT Thorzain or Losira end up thwarting these guys, I think we will have another protoss champion and possibly another pvp finals.
Top zergs have about the same shot at taking this, maybe in order of Losira=Idra>July, and only by a very small margin.
For top terrans, i would say MMA>Thorzain=Select>Sjow>DDE
For top protoss, Nani=MC>Kiwi
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Whoa whoa whoa... Moonan 0-5? He is better than that, man.
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On June 03 2011 08:00 Vansetsu wrote:Reaction: Pool A - Pretty likely results Pool B - MMA takes this or ties somehow with Kiwi. I would bet he takes it though. While each player in this pool isn't necessarily as scary as C overall is has the strongest lineup depending on who comes in from open. Sheth+Sjow+Moonan would basically scare me a little more than Ret and Tyler right now unfortunately Pool C - No way you can reasonably think SeleCT will 5-0 his group. Unless he owns Idra really early, he tends to play 1 dimensional towards him, and idra usually wins. MC has godly pvp, don;t think tt1 will be and issue for him, and his pvz is very strong IMO. I see some weird 4-1 4-1 3-2 scenario here... and that is if TT1 makes this bracket, which i don't really think will happen. Pool D - Agree Losira takes this group, and the rest is really in the air. I don't believe Incontrol does very well this time around... he played fairly cheezy last mlg and i don't see him getting very far with it this one. I think TLO could do well. With Nani MC and Kiwi all at this event, I think we will have a protoss in top 3 for sure again, possibly 2. I also think all of the protoss do well against any top tier zerg save maybe Losira, so unless MMA SeleCT Thorzain or Losira end up thwarting these guys, I think we will have another protoss champion and possibly another pvp finals. I think all top the zergs have about the same shot at taking this, maybe in order of Losira=Idra>July, and only by a very small margin. For top terrans, i would say MMA>Thorzain=Select>Sjow>DDE For top protoss, Nani=MC>Kiwi
Thank you for your response.
I think you are overestimating MC a little. His PvZ is his worst matchup (losing to dongraegu recently) and I think in general protoss are really struggling against zerg's who go heavy roach/bane/infestor also I think select will just go mass marauder to punish MC's style. I don't see MC beating IdrA or select in this group and no protoss to punish.
I think incontrol cheeses his way to victory, but again, it's very iffy. I agree that TLO could definitely take 2nd in that group.
I 100% agree about the zergs, but only in ZvZ. In ZvT I think Idra is the best and ZvP July is the best. This is why I don't think that there will be many protoss in the top 4 because the top protoss (Naniwa, MC, Kiwikaki) don't have a lot of lower tier protoss to play against whereas there are SOO many zergs in the championship bracket that it will reward players who are good against zerg.
I actually think I'm underestimating Losira a little. It's highly dependent on who he plays.
Thank you for responding though
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I think you are vastly overrating Slush and Kiwikaki while underrating Moon and Sheth.
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I like how you are willing to go against the popular choices and actually give reasons.
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On June 03 2011 08:16 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2011 08:00 Vansetsu wrote:Reaction: Pool A - Pretty likely results Pool B - MMA takes this or ties somehow with Kiwi. I would bet he takes it though. While each player in this pool isn't necessarily as scary as C overall is has the strongest lineup depending on who comes in from open. Sheth+Sjow+Moonan would basically scare me a little more than Ret and Tyler right now unfortunately Pool C - No way you can reasonably think SeleCT will 5-0 his group. Unless he owns Idra really early, he tends to play 1 dimensional towards him, and idra usually wins. MC has godly pvp, don;t think tt1 will be and issue for him, and his pvz is very strong IMO. I see some weird 4-1 4-1 3-2 scenario here... and that is if TT1 makes this bracket, which i don't really think will happen. Pool D - Agree Losira takes this group, and the rest is really in the air. I don't believe Incontrol does very well this time around... he played fairly cheezy last mlg and i don't see him getting very far with it this one. I think TLO could do well. With Nani MC and Kiwi all at this event, I think we will have a protoss in top 3 for sure again, possibly 2. I also think all of the protoss do well against any top tier zerg save maybe Losira, so unless MMA SeleCT Thorzain or Losira end up thwarting these guys, I think we will have another protoss champion and possibly another pvp finals. I think all top the zergs have about the same shot at taking this, maybe in order of Losira=Idra>July, and only by a very small margin. For top terrans, i would say MMA>Thorzain=Select>Sjow>DDE For top protoss, Nani=MC>Kiwi Thank you for your response. I think you are overestimating MC a little. His PvZ is his worst matchup (losing to dongraegu recently) and I think in general protoss are really struggling against zerg's who go heavy roach/bane/infestor also I think select will just go mass marauder to punish MC's style. I don't see MC beating IdrA or select in this group and no protoss to punish. I think incontrol cheeses his way to victory, but again, it's very iffy. I agree that TLO could definitely take 2nd in that group. I 100% agree about the zergs, but only in ZvZ. In ZvT I think Idra is the best and ZvP July is the best. This is why I don't think that there will be many protoss in the top 4 because the top protoss (Naniwa, MC, Kiwikaki) don't have a lot of lower tier protoss to play against whereas there are SOO many zergs in the championship bracket that it will reward players who are good against zerg. I actually think I'm underestimating Losira a little. It's highly dependent on who he plays. Thank you for responding though
PvZ is MC's best matchup. The loss in a Bo1 to DongRaGu is pretty much the only LAN PvZ I remember him losing. He beat July 4-1 and 2-1, Idra 2-0, Morrow 2-0, 2-0 and 3-1, TheWind 1-0. MC's has the best PvZ in the world. His weakest matchup is PvT by far.
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some pretty bold bets. i'd predict
moon will get second or third in his group, going 3-2 or 4-1; he will lose to july but might take nani if the conditions are right for him
both nani and july will drop a series
kiwikaki will go 3-2 or 2-3. he will lose to morrow and mma, and will have a very close series with sheth
mma will go 4-1 but losing to one of the zergs in his group, not kiwi
select will go 3-2 or 2-3, losing to 2 or all of the following: mc, ret, idra
idra will go 4-1, but losing to either mc or ret, not select
ret will lose to mc and idra and go 3-2
incontrol will get third in his group after losira and tlo
neither select nor july will be in the top5
and i think neither mc nor nani will be in the top 3, though that's pretty hard to believe.
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On June 03 2011 06:41 darmousseh wrote:
1st place: JulyZerg
You heard it first here. His style is so unorthadox, so different, his presence so scary, that most players will just utterly falter to him. Scouting him breaks all notions of current zerg play and he will use that to punish others. Also, he just won the CoH tournament to get here, he wants to win and he wants to win bad. July will lose his first series against Naniwa, but not any series after that.
I urge you to watch anypro vs july on metalopolis
July's ZvP is really atrocious and with players like MC, Naniwa or even TT1 at the event there's not even the remote possibility that July can take 1st. Add to that his lackluster ZvZ and . . . I don't think he's a champion yet...
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On June 04 2011 01:15 ChickenLips wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2011 06:41 darmousseh wrote:
1st place: JulyZerg
You heard it first here. His style is so unorthadox, so different, his presence so scary, that most players will just utterly falter to him. Scouting him breaks all notions of current zerg play and he will use that to punish others. Also, he just won the CoH tournament to get here, he wants to win and he wants to win bad. July will lose his first series against Naniwa, but not any series after that.
I urge you to watch anypro vs july on metalopolis July's ZvP is really atrocious and with players like MC, Naniwa or even TT1 at the event there's not even the remote possibility that July can take 1st. Add to that his lackluster ZvZ and . . . I don't think he's a champion yet...
In the clash of the houses tournament, which is why he's even coming to MLG, he beat the following protoss
Ace
Squirtle
San
Killer
I would say those are pretty decent protoss.
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On June 04 2011 02:04 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2011 01:15 ChickenLips wrote:On June 03 2011 06:41 darmousseh wrote:
1st place: JulyZerg
You heard it first here. His style is so unorthadox, so different, his presence so scary, that most players will just utterly falter to him. Scouting him breaks all notions of current zerg play and he will use that to punish others. Also, he just won the CoH tournament to get here, he wants to win and he wants to win bad. July will lose his first series against Naniwa, but not any series after that.
I urge you to watch anypro vs july on metalopolis July's ZvP is really atrocious and with players like MC, Naniwa or even TT1 at the event there's not even the remote possibility that July can take 1st. Add to that his lackluster ZvZ and . . . I don't think he's a champion yet... In the clash of the houses tournament, which is why he's even coming to MLG, he beat the following protoss Ace Squirtle San Killer I would say those are pretty decent protoss.
He crushed Ace with baneling busts (because he sillily FEs on every map, he'd probably do it on DQ too), Squirtle has shown a profound lack of understanding of PvZ in the past, and Killer just all-ins every PvZ. I don't remember exactly, but I'm pretty sure there was atleast another (successful) baneling bust involved against san, because the silly KRs think they can FE with the Nexus part of their wall-of. Really quick games all-in-all.
I prefer to look at how a player actually plays a MU rather than relying on tournament results. Whenever he played offline against Protoss he was really really disappointing (vMC in GSTL, vAnypro in past GSL, ,vMC in the one before that)
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On June 03 2011 06:41 darmousseh wrote:
MC is an excellent player, but he hasn't played against select or IdrA and is unlikely to study his opponents therefore this will hurt his style. He will attempt to play macro games only to find out that both IdrA and select have excellent macro.
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2011_DreamHack/Stockholm_Invitational
video inside spoiler
+ Show Spoiler +
I believe the story was that MC specifically went out of his way to play IdrA in a macro game to show that his macro is solid. At the time, MC was criticized because he only played quick games.
The second game IdrA 6pooled and I believe the explanation was that, at the time, IdrA felt had no chance against MC any other way.
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On June 04 2011 02:49 Smurphy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2011 06:41 darmousseh wrote:
MC is an excellent player, but he hasn't played against select or IdrA and is unlikely to study his opponents therefore this will hurt his style. He will attempt to play macro games only to find out that both IdrA and select have excellent macro. http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2011_DreamHack/Stockholm_Invitationalvideo inside spoiler + Show Spoiler +http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC6fgrY5vR0 I believe the story was that MC specifically went out of his way to play IdrA in a macro game to show that his macro is solid. At the time, MC was criticized because he only played quick games. The second game IdrA 6pooled and I believe the explanation was that, at the time, IdrA felt had no chance against MC any other way.
Oh ya, forgot about that series lol! I think IdrA understands ZvP a little more now (hopefully). But now that you mention it I might change my mind. I want to believe that IdrA has the ability to adapt to MC, but probably not. My only hope is that IdrA did adapt to Huk at the last MLG and was able to win the 2nd series against him.
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I still think idra will beat mc in the first series.
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EPT
