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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Remember, blues are also trying to hide, because if blues get uncovered, mafia goes ahead and kills them. I think that neither Shcoleosis nor Vain is contributing, and either would make a good lynch, because if the one we lynch today flips green, I can almost guarantee that the other one won't. By the way Shcoleosis: Reading the thread and not contributing is the definition of lurking. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
EBWOP: If Vain is not our medic, he makes a good lynch. | ||
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Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On April 19 2011 03:29 VarpuliS wrote: The one thing I'm worried about: Vain could be our medic. In that case he'd know that Forumite was targeted and saved, and accidentally let it slip. . I didn't really want that information out there, but I'll echo that this was my reason for keeping my vote off of Vain. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
Looking at the first day activity it was pretty clear that scholeosis was going to get lynched, yet nobody seemed to care much. There was no way mafia could have known senj wasn't going to show up and it seemed like everyone was tunneling scholeosis, except for forumite and he is our only confirmed townie. I hope everyone understands that the mafia would try to not let this happen on day 1 if scholeosis was indeed mafia. Now looking at the night activity, mafia tryied to kill forumite. Before forumite analysis of varpulis his FoS was Vain and Elmizzt. No one seemed to give credit to forumite's analysis of vain, as he seemed very pro-town. Even forumite didn't seem convinced by his own analysis in the end. Then we know that the medic saved forumite. Who do you guys think that could have possibly targgeted forumite for a save? I personally think it's much more likely to be scholeosis than vain. If vain was medic he had no reason whatsoever to be sure forumite was town. Scholeosis on the other hand would be pretty convinced as forumite was the only one who defended him and everybody else was pointing fingers at him. Now let's say neither of them is the medic. That makes it more likely that vain's slip proves he is mafia. That's why I feel vain is the better lynch. Ever since I rose suspicion on vain all hell broke loose in this thread. That's much more consistent with him being mafia. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On April 19 2011 04:23 sandroba wrote: To me both scholeosis and vain have presented extremely scummy behavior, but as I stated before there is simply no way they are both mafia. Looking at the first day activity it was pretty clear that scholeosis was going to get lynched, yet nobody seemed to care much. There was no way mafia could have known senj wasn't going to show up and it seemed like everyone was tunneling scholeosis, except for forumite and he is our only confirmed townie. I hope everyone understands that the mafia would try to not let this happen on day 1 if scholeosis was indeed mafia. Now looking at the night activity, mafia tryied to kill forumite. Before forumite analysis of varpulis his FoS was Vain and Elmizzt. No one seemed to give credit to forumite's analysis of vain, as he seemed very pro-town. Even forumite didn't seem convinced by his own analysis in the end. Then we know that the medic saved forumite. Who do you guys think that could have possibly targgeted forumite for a save? I personally think it's much more likely to be scholeosis than vain. If vain was medic he had no reason whatsoever to be sure forumite was town. Scholeosis on the other hand would be pretty convinced as forumite was the only one who defended him and everybody else was pointing fingers at him. Now let's say neither of them is the medic. That makes it more likely that vain's slip proves he is mafia. That's why I feel vain is the better lynch. Ever since I rose suspicion on vain all hell broke loose in this thread. That's much more consistent with him being mafia. This makes a lot of sense to me. Sandroba, you've got me convinced. I swear to god I'll lynch you if he flips medic, though. ##Vote: Vain | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On April 19 2011 03:31 Zorkmid wrote: I didn't really want that information out there, but I'll echo that this was my reason for keeping my vote off of Vain. I have been aware of this possibility ever since Vain made the slip, but the thing is, he´s still just as good a target to Mafia even if he doesn´t say he´s Medic. He hasn´t denied that he knew it, he hasn´t claimed to actually have been a townie, and so he remains Mafia/Medic, which is barely better than being a confirmed Medic. If he´s the Medic then Mafia is allready on to that and they will kill him Night 2, so why doesn´t he just claim Medic? Because that would be just another nail in the coffin when the true Medic goes out and confirm our belief that he´s Mafia. To the Mafia, if he´s Mafia or Medic is clear, the only ones he´s trying to confuse is Town, which is why he´s our enemy and we should Lynch him now. | ||
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Zorkmid
4410 Posts
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
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Vain
Netherlands1115 Posts
On April 19 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote: If Vote flips green or blue then I will take a very close look on Sandroba, but I can´t know now what will happen during Lynch 2, it depends on what slip-ups happen until then. Stupidity is not a scumtell and i quote "Bad logic- Unless the bad logic is intentional. Not everyone is as smart as someone who reads LSB’s Newbie guide." On April 18 2011 04:11 Vain wrote: VarpuliS, did you read the guides that were reccomended? Useless question. You probably read the guide and you know the way you have been posting is not good town play. If Sandroba would have read the guide and actually has some recollection memory he should exactly know why i did ask this question which is still unanswered. Nice bandwagon btw VarpuliS | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On April 19 2011 06:16 Vain wrote: If Sandroba would have read the guide and actually has some recollection memory he should exactly know why i did ask this question which is still unanswered. Do you want to explain what you mean here? | ||
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elmizzt
United States3309 Posts
On April 19 2011 06:16 Vain wrote: Stupidity is not a scumtell and i quote "Bad logic- Unless the bad logic is intentional. Not everyone is as smart as someone who reads LSB’s Newbie guide." On April 18 2011 04:11 Vain wrote: VarpuliS, did you read the guides that were reccomended? Useless question. You probably read the guide and you know the way you have been posting is not good town play. If Sandroba would have read the guide and actually has some recollection memory he should exactly know why i did ask this question which is still unanswered. Nice bandwagon btw VarpuliS People need to stop quoting guides and outside sources as ultimate authorities. They're good for sparking ideas, but they can't apply to every situation. Make your own arguments instead. Here are my suspicious posts: Vain: On April 18 2011 21:32 Vain wrote: I don't know how you percieved this but i had consistently scholeosis as maffia so please don't imply i just follow the crowd. I was the even only one that ended up voting for her. Why are you asking me if i am doctor or mafia? if i tell you im mafia i would be dead. If i tell you i am a doctor i would be dead AND the town loses a medic. So I am not going to answer your two sided question you figure it out yourself;) It almost seems as though you maintained your vote on scholeosis even after it was 100% clear that she would not possibly be lynched in order to have some kind of defense for later use. It's almost too calculated that you had that defense all whipped up and ready for use at the first moment's notice. Forumite: On April 18 2011 22:12 Forumite wrote: I am one of the probable Townies, and I hinted that I had something really good that I was waiting to drop, which is probably why they aimed for me. I would like you to note that I didn´t say I was saved at first. Partly because I didn´t see the PM until this morning, but also because I wanted to lure out the Mafia, and because I knew people would suspect me if I say I was saved. Saying I´m saved doesn´t help much, except if I get someone to make a mistake, like Vain did. I think it's pretty clear that you are lying your ass off here. You posted 9 and 15 minutes after the PM's went out. I find it extremely hard to believe that you "didn't see the PM" during this time, especially considering that there were 3 posts in between your posts, and yours popped up at the front of a new page. These circumstances would have required at the bare minimum a couple f5's to be caught up. Not to mention that PM's are emailed to you assuming you havn't turned that function off. It doesn't add up. So basically: FOS: Vain FOS: Forumite | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Scholeosis Strong suspicion on here since she didn't defend herself at all, plans to lurk till tomorrow, and hasn't posted any analysis on anyone. The biggest question mark is who is the second mafia with her. At this point, I can only think of Elmizzt who can be the second mafia via process of elimination. I doubt he has defended her directly at any point but pretty much everyone has voted for her lynch at one point of time. Vain Assuming Forumite is speaking the truth, he is either red or blue. Also, his only possible accomplice can be Elmizzt as everyone has been ganging up on him as well. Zorkmid is another possible accomplice of him. Varpulis Though I consider him town for now, if he doesn't get him tomorrow night, I will start getting suspicious. Though the same is true for me as well. Sandroba A quick role-block claim right after the day started. I would tread cautiously since a false role-block claim can be a ruse to drive medic/detective's out for role-claiming. Without his claim, we cannot guess the setup of this mafia game and a false claim throws the town in confusion. Also, since it is a role-block claim, no one apart from mafia can know whether it is true or a lie. The timing of the claim makes it even more suspicious since he claimed 2 minutes after the day started. It just seems too good to be true IMO. Forumite A save claim. This one is a little more believable than the role-block claim as it is a high risk claim for mafia. They do know there was a medic since their target didn't die. However, claiming a save pretty much ensures that two people know that he is mafia. Thus, it seems rather unlikely that it is a false claim. The only way it can be a false claim is the mafia didn't kill anyone in the night which is quite stupid in itself. However, if someone else was saved last night as well, please do speak up. Note, I am not asking the medic to role-claim, just asking the saved person. Barring someone else claiming a save, I would treat Forumite as town for now. Elmzzt No one knows where he is. He hasn't posted substantive material yet. He is the only one linked with two highly potential mafia scum. There is not much to analyze beyond that. I would put him as scum in my book. Zorkmid I have to say that either he is very good at playing both town or mafia, or he just bad at playing both. I can't get a good read on him as pro-town and occasionally I get the scum vibe, but apart from the role-claim post early in first day, I see a lack of scum-like behavior from him. He is protecting Vain though and is a possible accomplice if Vain is mafia. Summary Forumite is most likely town according to me. FoS Sandroba I would still probably vote for either Shcoleosis or Elmizzt since those seem more scummy than Vain to me. | ||
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Zorkmid
4410 Posts
On April 19 2011 01:50 Zorkmid wrote: I think that one of the things holding me back is that if Vain is mafia.....who else is? Anyone have any thoughts on this? | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
And Elmizzt posted while I was writing my post. And goes after Vain which breaks his potential affiliation with Vain. @Elmizzt As much as Forumite's delayed claim makes it suspicious; since no one else has claimed being saved and mafia didn't get a kill last night; I can't find a scenario (in which mafia isn't totally indept or is just too awesome) where he is scum. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
I can only think of you  Sandroba & Forumite are too anti-Vain! Vain is too anti-Shcoleosis! Varpulis has voted for Vain Elmizzt & me are also suspicious of Vain | ||
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elmizzt
United States3309 Posts
On April 19 2011 08:02 Eternalmisfit wrote: EBWOP: And Elmizzt posted while I was writing my post. And goes after Vain which breaks his potential affiliation with Vain. @Elmizzt As much as Forumite's delayed claim makes it suspicious; since no one else has claimed being saved and mafia didn't get a kill last night; I can't find a scenario (in which mafia isn't totally indept or is just too awesome) where he is scum. Well, I think you have to consider that a mafia was saved. It that's the case, then Vain is mafia, and his partner was saved. They were trying to throw us off by shifting the save to Vain, not sure why they would do that, but it's a possible scenario. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
Also, nobody knows what you're talking about when you reference the guides. If you want to ask a question, just ask it, don't be vague. To all the people calling Forumite a liar: Then what did happen? Mafia decided not to hit anybody? why the hell would they do that? Elmizzt, how did you know when the PM's went out? Are you claiming blue? | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On April 19 2011 08:07 elmizzt wrote: Well, I think you have to consider that a mafia was saved. It that's the case, then Vain is mafia, and his partner was saved. They were trying to throw us off by shifting the save to Vain, not sure why they would do that, but it's a possible scenario. The mafia cannot be saved as in that case we would have a town kill. In the absence of a town kill, I can safely say that a townie was saved and there is a medic. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
God my spelling is terrible. | ||
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