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Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia I - Page 22

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sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
April 19 2011 03:32 GMT
#421
People, every one is posting wild theories of who they think it's mafia and how they could be manipulating the vote. Look at behavioural analysis. Make your own behavioral analysis. Stop wasting time and misleading town with these WIFOM scenarios. Let's lynch whoever we think is most likely to be scum at this point. That should be either Vain or shcoleosis, based purely on behaviour. I have explained already why I think Vain is most likely to be scum. Go back and read analysis on both this guys. Reread their posts. Throw your egos aside and make the choice that you feel is most likely to lynch scum. After the lynch we can discuss who to lynch on the subsequent day. Right now we need to find ONE scum to lynch. That's our goal.
Eternalmisfit
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States643 Posts
April 19 2011 05:29 GMT
#422
I am going to put a placeholder vote for Vain since I wouldn't be able to post much tomorrow due to work. I should check the posts during the day on my iphone though and plan to post and be active atl east twice (before noon and just before deadline) to see if anything new came up.

##Vote: Vain

The main case against Vain is that he possibly slipped up the information that Forumite was saved before Forumite officially announced. That can imply either mafia or medic. This makes me wary of lynching him and I will probably revisit my vote with a detailed analysis later. However, in case I get stuck at work and cant vote again, I have put a placeholder vote for now.

Frankly, I am hesitant on voting for Scholeosis also at this point since almost everyone is against her. So, it is either real bad mafia play or she is town.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
April 19 2011 06:29 GMT
#423
On April 19 2011 06:16 Vain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote:
If Vote flips green or blue then I will take a very close look on Sandroba, but I can´t know now what will happen during Lynch 2, it depends on what slip-ups happen until then.


Stupidity is not a scumtell and i quote

"Bad logic- Unless the bad logic is intentional. Not everyone is as smart as someone who reads LSB’s Newbie guide."


On April 18 2011 04:11 Vain wrote:

VarpuliS, did you read the guides that were reccomended?


Useless question. You probably read the guide and you know the way you have been posting is not good town play.

If Sandroba would have read the guide and actually has some recollection memory he should exactly know why i did ask this question which is still unanswered.

Nice bandwagon btw VarpuliS



I simply cannot understand this posts at all, and I've been staring at it for quite some time. Are you claiming stupid as your defense? I've read about 50 other posts you made in other threads and all of them are quite sound and reasonable, you seem to know about phisics and do not seem stupid at all. Comparing that to your behaviour in this thread has left me completely perplexed. You are not helping town at all. I've done a post by post analysis on you and there isn't one single useful information. I'm not talking about the last slip, I'm talking about every single one of the posts you made.That's not consistent with blue behaviour for me. That's absolutely not consistent with townie behaviour to me. Also if you for some odd reason are town I would like to have you modkilled and banned from the next games, because you are not following one of the rules: Play to win. But I really don't think you are, as I've read a lot of your posts, I don't think you are stupid, so you CAN'T be town.

Same goes to scholeosis. If you are town you are screwing this game for us. If you are town you are NOT playing to win. That's pissing me off because I've invested a lot of time reading and rereading people's posts, making analysis and trying to convince people here to read carefully all the analysis done and post their opnion.

Since I can't find any previous posts from scholeosis I can't really tell if she is dense/lazy/doesn't give a shit about this game or smart and commited and therefore mafia.

I can only hope that other people work as hard as I've been working, read carefully all posts, consider the night actions and come to conclusions on their own.
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
April 19 2011 09:22 GMT
#424
On April 19 2011 10:19 Zorkmid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2011 10:14 VarpuliS wrote:
I'm off to sleep, and will be traveling for the next few days. I'm not going to be inactive, but I'll be posting from my phone for the most part, so expect my posts be shorter and less filled with bbc code.

Right now it's clear to me that we should lynch either Shcoleosis or Vain, but as of right now I'm not sure which one.


Totally offtopic...When I open TL mafia threads on my phone the app crashes. What do you use?

iPhone safari app.
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
April 19 2011 10:03 GMT
#425
I think there is something weird with Vain, but I´m ready to give him the benefit of the doubt for now, and will focus on the second most likely Mafia.

##Unvote
##Vote: Shcoleosis
:3
Vain
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Netherlands1115 Posts
April 19 2011 11:46 GMT
#426
I think it is time for me to claim Medic now. I saved forumite that night and i'm very happy to see that he does not vote for me now.Jeah i slipped that first post, The first part implying forumite was saved was not that bad but the 2nd one with an analysis i already wrote shouln't have been there. But meh what's done is done. I didn't claim medic before for a few reasons. Now we can rules some people out. Mind that the mafia already knew i was a Medic. I also agree with sandroba that we should stick to one target and not post analysis just because you are suspected of scum. It isn't helping and just contributes to the clusterfuck of posts we have. I will now post some information where i'm fairly sure on.

Based on the mafia kill i can vouch for forumite. He is either green or took a very high risk the first day. I don't really believe in the last one.

Second is VarpuliS. He cannot be scum due to the following reason. When forumite would be killed all suspicion would be on VarpuliS. He would almost certainly be the 2nd target of the day 2 lynch.

Zorkmid is also town. Just trust me on this one

Sandroba Would also been town if i'm right on this. He has been hard pressuring to kill me. So hard that if flipped medic he would be the next target. So Sandroba would be also on my green list

Ok, so three persons left now

-elmizzt: Did not post sufficiently to get a good read on

-Scholeosis: Well i think we discussed this subect more than enough. But keep in mind if you are a townie and made a mess like this. How would you post?

-Eternalmisfit: Also can't get a good read on him. Posted sufficiently to avoid any real suspicion.

Well this is my list for now. Why did i claim medic when also some votes are going to Shcoleosis again? Well,since the mafia already knows i am a medic it doesn't really matter to me if i claim now or never but the earlyer the town get's any hard information the better. Also i have some wild theory's on why we should look in a whole other direction but alas i didn't see any confirming behaviour.


Battle.net 2.0 is a waiter and he's a dick
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
April 19 2011 11:56 GMT
#427
Well, unless anyone else claims medic you are clear and confirmed for me. I still don't understand your previous behaviour at all. I would also like to see your reasoning for choosing to save forumite.

##Unvote
##Vote: Scholeosis
Zorkmid
Profile Joined November 2008
4410 Posts
April 19 2011 11:59 GMT
#428
On April 19 2011 20:46 Vain wrote:
Why did i claim medic when also some votes are going to Shcoleosis again? Well,since the mafia already knows i am a medic it doesn't really matter to me if i claim now or never but the earlyer the town get's any hard information the better. Also i have some wild theory's on why we should look in a whole other direction but alas i didn't see any confirming behaviour.


Vain, I don't follow your logic at all.

Can you or someone else open my eyes as to why the Mafia already knows you're a Medic?

You have a good chance of not getting lynched today, while I don't think your claim gets you lynched today, I think it either gets you shot tonight, or puts you in a pretty tough to defend spot tomorrow if you survive.

If I were you I wouldn't have claimed.

Either there is some important tidbit that I don't see, or you're not playing to win/didn't think this out very well.

Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
April 19 2011 12:02 GMT
#429
Yay! Thanks for saving me Vain! <3

Since you are safe, at least until someone disputes your claim of Medic, that puts my suspicions towards Elmizzt and Shcoleosis as the Mafia pair and I´m ready to vote on them.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
April 19 2011 12:03 GMT
#430
On April 19 2011 20:59 Zorkmid wrote:
Vain, I don't follow your logic at all.

Can you or someone else open my eyes as to why the Mafia already knows you're a Medic?

He posted that he knew I was saved, so he must be Medic or Mafia. If he´s the Medic, then the Mafia knows because they know who they are, and that he´s not one of them.
:3
Vain
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Netherlands1115 Posts
April 19 2011 12:11 GMT
#431
On April 19 2011 21:03 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2011 20:59 Zorkmid wrote:
Vain, I don't follow your logic at all.

Can you or someone else open my eyes as to why the Mafia already knows you're a Medic?

He posted that he knew I was saved, so he must be Medic or Mafia. If he´s the Medic, then the Mafia knows because they know who they are, and that he´s not one of them.


That is correct. So while my chances of being lynched were diminishing, My chances of being killed in the night were reasonably big. Also it maby it will shine some new light on the discussion. We have to get it right this time.
Battle.net 2.0 is a waiter and he's a dick
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
April 19 2011 13:05 GMT
#432
Unless we get another medic claim, this works for me. I've wanted to lynch Shcoleosis for a while now anyways. If anybody needs more convincing, go read my analysis.

Unvote
Vote: Shcoleosis
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
April 19 2011 13:06 GMT
#433
EBWOP:

##Unvote
##Vote: Shcoleosis
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
Eternalmisfit
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States643 Posts
April 19 2011 13:48 GMT
#434
Since Vain claimed medic and no one else has claimed medic, it is safe to assume that he is indeed medic.

Modified analysis

Vain
Forumite

Sandroba - I think he is either blue or mafia since he checked PM's and claimed block almost instantly after the day started. However, it seems harder and harder to associate an accomplice to him. Though, since he has been pushing for lynching Vain, he might indeed be scum.

VarpuliS and Zorkmid have seemed pro-town for the most.

Scholeosis and Elmizzt seem mafia scum to me.

##Unvote
##Vote: Shcoleosis



sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
April 19 2011 14:02 GMT
#435
On April 19 2011 07:47 elmizzt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2011 06:16 Vain wrote:
On April 19 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote:
If Vote flips green or blue then I will take a very close look on Sandroba, but I can´t know now what will happen during Lynch 2, it depends on what slip-ups happen until then.


Stupidity is not a scumtell and i quote

"Bad logic- Unless the bad logic is intentional. Not everyone is as smart as someone who reads LSB’s Newbie guide."


On April 18 2011 04:11 Vain wrote:

VarpuliS, did you read the guides that were reccomended?


Useless question. You probably read the guide and you know the way you have been posting is not good town play.

If Sandroba would have read the guide and actually has some recollection memory he should exactly know why i did ask this question which is still unanswered.

Nice bandwagon btw VarpuliS


People need to stop quoting guides and outside sources as ultimate authorities. They're good for sparking ideas, but they can't apply to every situation. Make your own arguments instead.

Here are my suspicious posts:
Vain:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2011 21:32 Vain wrote:
I don't know how you percieved this but i had consistently scholeosis as maffia so please don't imply i just follow the crowd. I was the even only one that ended up voting for her. Why are you asking me if i am doctor or mafia? if i tell you im mafia i would be dead. If i tell you i am a doctor i would be dead AND the town loses a medic. So I am not going to answer your two sided question you figure it out yourself;)

It almost seems as though you maintained your vote on scholeosis even after it was 100% clear that she would not possibly be lynched in order to have some kind of defense for later use. It's almost too calculated that you had that defense all whipped up and ready for use at the first moment's notice.

Forumite:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2011 22:12 Forumite wrote:
I am one of the probable Townies, and I hinted that I had something really good that I was waiting to drop, which is probably why they aimed for me.

I would like you to note that I didn´t say I was saved at first. Partly because I didn´t see the PM until this morning, but also because I wanted to lure out the Mafia, and because I knew people would suspect me if I say I was saved. Saying I´m saved doesn´t help much, except if I get someone to make a mistake, like Vain did.

I think it's pretty clear that you are lying your ass off here. You posted 9 and 15 minutes after the PM's went out. I find it extremely hard to believe that you "didn't see the PM" during this time, especially considering that there were 3 posts in between your posts, and yours popped up at the front of a new page. These circumstances would have required at the bare minimum a couple f5's to be caught up. Not to mention that PM's are emailed to you assuming you havn't turned that function off. It doesn't add up.

So basically:

FOS: Vain
FOS: Forumite


Points finger at vain, never talks about shcoleosis. Agrees with bulshit analysis done on Forumite even though anyone can see there was simply no way he was 100% town at this point since everyone had already posted and no one claimed medic.

shcoleosis and elmizzt are both mafia. gg
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
April 19 2011 14:05 GMT
#436
EBWOP: My post got chopped in half. Here it goes.
I would like to quote something I wrote on night 1.

On April 18 2011 10:54 sandroba wrote:
This post is my scum list in case I die. I pretty much agree with varpulis analysis.

1. Scholeosis - If this girl is town, that's the most terrible town play of the year. An award should be given to her.

2. Elmizzt - Agrees with bulshit analysis posted by others. In contrary to zorkmid I'm not suspisious of the one who post a bad analysis, because normally all the analysis at least gives something to talk about and forces reactions out of people (which is pro-town). elmizz rapidly agreed with both the analysis of zorkmid and forumite of me and varpulis trying to take out the focus on scholeosis, when the focus were on his scumbudy scholeosis. That's textbook mafia play, not coming up with ideas, but bandwagon the useless ones. If scholeosis, much to my dismay, turns out to be anything but mafia, this needs to be reanalysed, of course.

3. Vain - If for some miracle either of these guys aren't mafia I would take a closer look at this person. All his posts so far have been useless constation of the obvious, questions or fluff posts, none with any content whatsoever. Also he doesn't seem to mind that senj screwed town over and makes a useless post praising our "beloved" useless townie. elmizzt finds it amusing.

Btw, forumite analysis of scholeosis is not bulshit at all, it seemed like it was indeed a huge slip by Varpulis, but at this time the amount of effort he has put towards scumhunting makes it very hard to beleive he's anything but town, so he gets a pass in my eyes.


After Vain's slip it not only put some doubts on my mind but gave me the opportunity to put huge pressure on Vain and see how a certain person reacted.

Note that I wasn't 100% acurate on this statement:
On April 18 2011 21:40 sandroba wrote:
Alright so now I will state why we shouldn't lynch scholeosis. Forumite for the time being is the only comfirmed townie (unless the medic claims he didn't save forumite, in which case you should claim so we can trade you for forumite and scholeosis) and the only one who has defended scholeosis so far. The mafia did not know Senj wasn't going to show up, so someone would come to his defense. Everyone and their mother were suspicious of scholeosis at this point so it's very unlikely he's mafia. I advise scholeosis to step up your game if you are indeed not mafia, because I was 100% sure you were at some point.


Through the course of the game elmizzt never pointed a finger or gave a single opnion about scholeosis and always agreed with analysis of other people not involving shcoleosis, no matter how poor it was.

So here comes his reaction:
On April 19 2011 07:47 elmizzt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2011 06:16 Vain wrote:
On April 19 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote:
If Vote flips green or blue then I will take a very close look on Sandroba, but I can´t know now what will happen during Lynch 2, it depends on what slip-ups happen until then.


Stupidity is not a scumtell and i quote

"Bad logic- Unless the bad logic is intentional. Not everyone is as smart as someone who reads LSB’s Newbie guide."


On April 18 2011 04:11 Vain wrote:

VarpuliS, did you read the guides that were reccomended?


Useless question. You probably read the guide and you know the way you have been posting is not good town play.

If Sandroba would have read the guide and actually has some recollection memory he should exactly know why i did ask this question which is still unanswered.

Nice bandwagon btw VarpuliS


People need to stop quoting guides and outside sources as ultimate authorities. They're good for sparking ideas, but they can't apply to every situation. Make your own arguments instead.

Here are my suspicious posts:
Vain:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2011 21:32 Vain wrote:
I don't know how you percieved this but i had consistently scholeosis as maffia so please don't imply i just follow the crowd. I was the even only one that ended up voting for her. Why are you asking me if i am doctor or mafia? if i tell you im mafia i would be dead. If i tell you i am a doctor i would be dead AND the town loses a medic. So I am not going to answer your two sided question you figure it out yourself;)

It almost seems as though you maintained your vote on scholeosis even after it was 100% clear that she would not possibly be lynched in order to have some kind of defense for later use. It's almost too calculated that you had that defense all whipped up and ready for use at the first moment's notice.

Forumite:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2011 22:12 Forumite wrote:
I am one of the probable Townies, and I hinted that I had something really good that I was waiting to drop, which is probably why they aimed for me.

I would like you to note that I didn´t say I was saved at first. Partly because I didn´t see the PM until this morning, but also because I wanted to lure out the Mafia, and because I knew people would suspect me if I say I was saved. Saying I´m saved doesn´t help much, except if I get someone to make a mistake, like Vain did.

I think it's pretty clear that you are lying your ass off here. You posted 9 and 15 minutes after the PM's went out. I find it extremely hard to believe that you "didn't see the PM" during this time, especially considering that there were 3 posts in between your posts, and yours popped up at the front of a new page. These circumstances would have required at the bare minimum a couple f5's to be caught up. Not to mention that PM's are emailed to you assuming you havn't turned that function off. It doesn't add up.

So basically:

FOS: Vain
FOS: Forumite


Points finger at vain, never talks about shcoleosis. Agrees with bulshit analysis done on Forumite even though anyone can see there was simply no way he was 100% town at this point since everyone had already posted and no one claimed medic.

shcoleosis and elmizzt are both mafia. gg
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
April 19 2011 14:38 GMT
#437
Just posting the current voting situation, should be accurate but I might have done a mistake. Below are earlier votes during Day 2, but no FoS. Suspicion in votes have gone from Vain over to Shcoleosis, even before he claimed Medic. I took the liberty of coloring Elmizzt abd Shcoleosis as Red because they are to me the most likely Mafia.

-----

Current Votes:
Shcoleosis: 5

-----

Zorkmid:
##Vote Forumite - Unvoted
##Vote Scholeosis

Sandroba
##Vote: scholeosis - Unvoted
##Vote: Vain - Unvoted
##Vote: Scholeosis

Forumite
##Vote: Vain - Unvoted
##Vote: Shcoleosis

VarpuliS
##Vote: Vain - Unvoted
##Vote: Shcoleosis

Eternalmisfit
##Vote: Vain - Unvoted
##Vote: Shcoleosis

Vain
NOT YET VOTED

Elmizzt
NOT YET VOTED

Shcoleosis
NOT YET VOTED
:3
Vain
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Netherlands1115 Posts
April 19 2011 15:12 GMT
#438
On April 19 2011 22:48 Eternalmisfit wrote:
Since Vain claimed medic and no one else has claimed medic, it is safe to assume that he is indeed medic.

Modified analysis

Vain
Forumite

Sandroba - I think he is either blue or mafia since he checked PM's and claimed block almost instantly after the day started. However, it seems harder and harder to associate an accomplice to him. Though, since he has been pushing for lynching Vain, he might indeed be scum.

VarpuliS and Zorkmid have seemed pro-town for the most.

Scholeosis and Elmizzt seem mafia scum to me.

##Unvote
##Vote: Shcoleosis





I do not agree with labeling sandroba as scum. Pushing for lynching me if he was scum would mean he would be the next target if i flipped medic which he knew if he was scum.

There is another possibility that he is mafia and hoped for me to claim my role. Then he could say that he didnt know that i was medic because he was acusing me.

Still i do label him as town since i do not find the 2nd theory very plausable
Battle.net 2.0 is a waiter and he's a dick
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
April 19 2011 17:55 GMT
#439
Day ends in 8 hours and 5 minutes ^_^
Moderator
Vain
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Netherlands1115 Posts
April 19 2011 18:52 GMT
#440
On April 20 2011 02:55 GMarshal wrote:
Day ends in 8 hours and 5 minutes ^_^


That better be a good smiley
Battle.net 2.0 is a waiter and he's a dick
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